MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[MT Treasurer]

There’s also a danger of overestimating Republican chances here just because most of the other swing state races (WI/MI/AZ) look even more out of reach and Rogers just seems above-average/particularly formidable next to people like Lake, Masters, and McCormick.

This is the same "overton window"-type of trap some us fell into in NV-SEN 2022 with Laxalt, who was obviously more competent than Masters, Oz, and Walker, but still no better than a generic R.

A generic R — giving MI GOP primary voters the benefit of the doubt for a moment in that I’m assuming they will actually nominate that kind of person — will still face major obstacles in 2024:

• The top of the ticket will be a drag here, particularly if Trump is the nominee. Good Republican candidates have lost because of the top of the ticket before, and a generic one only gets you so far if the man leading the ticket implodes.
• The Republican coalition will be even less reliable in down-ballot races in 2024, given how reliant the Republican nominee will be on winning over people who either still lean Democratic in down-ballot races, have recently supported Democrats in down-ballot races or have been Democrats their entire life. Republicans really can’t afford many split-ticket votes here given how close MI would be in a competitive national race.
• Joe Biden's unusually poor numbers for an incumbent Democrat don’t necessarily translate into a Democratic underperformance in down-ballot races, as we’ve seen in multiple elections now, particularly 2022. Yes, "higher turnout" will likely benefit Republicans here, but it obviously doesn’t explain the entire Democratic overperformance in 2022.
• The MI Democratic Party is one of the best-run swing state Democratic parties, and the MI GOP... isn’t — this matters less in a presidential year, but it doesn’t exactly help.

I’d also argue that Slotkin is a stronger Democrat than Stabenow.

TL;DR: One of the better pick-up opportunities for the GOP, but a lot will have to go their way here for it to actually flip. I don’t see it going Republican before NV, assuming Brown is the nominee there.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There’s also a danger of overestimating Republican chances here just because most of the other swing state races (WI/MI/AZ) look even more out of reach and Rogers just seems above-average/particularly formidable next to people like Lake, Masters, and McCormick.

This is the same "overton window"-type of trap some us fell into in NV-SEN 2022 with Laxalt, who was obviously more competent than Masters, Oz, and Walker, but still no better than a generic R.

A generic R — giving MI GOP primary voters the benefit of the doubt for a moment in that I’m assuming they will actually nominate that kind of person — will still face major obstacles in 2024:

• The top of the ticket will be a drag here, particularly if Trump is the nominee. Good Republican candidates have lost because of the top of the ticket before, and a generic one only gets you so far if the man leading the ticket implodes.
• The Republican coalition will be even less reliable in down-ballot races in 2024, given how reliant the Republican nominee will be on winning over people who either still lean Democratic in down-ballot races, have recently supported Democrats in down-ballot races or have been Democrats their entire life. Republicans really can’t afford many split-ticket votes here given how close MI would be in a competitive national race.
• Joe Biden's unusually poor numbers for an incumbent Democrat don’t necessarily translate into a Democratic underperformance in down-ballot races, as we’ve seen in multiple elections now, particularly 2022. Yes, "higher turnout" will likely benefit Republicans here, but it obviously doesn’t explain the entire Democratic overperformance in 2022.
• The MI Democratic Party is one of the best-run swing state Democratic parties, and the MI GOP... isn’t — this matters less in a presidential year, but it doesn’t exactly help.

I’d also argue that Slotkin is a stronger Democrat than Stabenow.

TL;DR: One of the better pick-up opportunities for the GOP, but a lot will have to go their way here for it to actually flip. I don’t see it going Republican before NV, assuming Brown is the nominee there.

All fair, but it should be much easier for Rs to distance themselves from Trump then Democrats from Biden

[MT Treasurer]

All fair, but it should be much easier for Rs to distance themselves from Trump then Democrats from Biden

For incumbent Democrats with a robust brand it likely won’t be, but for Slotkin it will indeed be harder given that she’s not that well-known statewide and can defined as a liberal party-line vote for Biden. There’s definitely an opening for Republicans here (their best and probably only opportunity after WV/OH/MT/NV), but we won’t even be talking about this race if Trump goes down hard in the presidential race (in that case they’d be lucky to even get the 2 pick-ups they need to flip the chamber).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are in deep trouble in MO Hawley is vulnerable like Blunt was to Kander Rs think MT, OH and WV are that's it and Powell is ahead in another poll. We have an excellent chance to keep the S and win the H Filibuster proof Trifecta DC STATEHOOD

Rs are trying to impeach Joe Biden

[DaleCooper]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Agreed, this is Likely D at worst

[Bismarck]

Rogers seems like a strong candidate. Republicans biggest problem is crazy folks winning their primaries. If Rogers can get through the race is a tossup.

[Senator Incitatus]

Rogers uses stock footage of Estonian families in announcement video

1. Who cares?
2. This article is such shoddy reporting that we should consider banning this site from the forum. There's no evidence provided of the claim that this family is Estonian, just that the company which owns the footage (which also owns footage of people who are clearly not Estonian or even in the Baltics) is based in Estonia. Their hundreds of pages of clips appear to span the globe, but mostly the United States and Western Europe. InfoWars tier conjecture.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1701978440117711152?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin is such an overwhelming fav even R Emersom has her miles ahead

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1701978440117711152?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Good for Rs, he would have lost badly.
I still think if Craig can get actually market himself, he would be the strongest. That remains to be seen though

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lol imagine running the head of the literal stock exchange in a state like Michigan. The unions would rip him apart

[Zedonathin2020]

Slotkin picketing with the UAW while Twitter is out making her look anti-Union is the most Twitter thing I’ve ever seen

https://twitter.com/progflippawi/status/1702744409194860654?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mb...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lol no one wants a long strike

[Oppo]

Saying "no one should let perfect be the enemy of good" is not a statement of solidarity.

[oldtimer]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

I dissagree, incumbent Senators with no primary troubles usually get a boost.

Like Claire McCaskill for example.

[Oppo]

Contrast what Slotkin said with Whitmer’s remarks today

https://twitter.com/laurenkgurley/status/1702791902230085771?s=46

[wbrocks67]

That tweet is completely misinterpreting what Slotkin said - she was in complete support on CNN today as well. Part of election twitter continues to have slotkin derangement syndrome for some reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Casey, Brown, Baldwin and Slotkin are gonna win ANYWAYS , that's why polls showing Biden losing to Trump are MEANINGLESS


Casey was ahead of all the Rs and Slotkin 45/38

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

[Zedonathin2020]

That tweet is completely misinterpreting what Slotkin said - she was in complete support on CNN today as well. Part of election twitter continues to have slotkin derangement syndrome for some reason.

The discourse about that woman on there truly is awful. For the longest time that ProgFlip guy ran a bot account where anytime somebody would say the word "Slotkin" in any context, it would appear spouting garbage like "She's Sinema 2.0" or "She is a pro-life, anti-LGBTQ+ conservative".

It's getting to the point where I'm close to muting anything regarding her from my feed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

Slotkin in Emerson was leading Craig 45/38 the same as Casey is leading McCormick it may not be that much in a 303 map it's 51/47D

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Incumbency is still a net advantage vs an open seat. I'm trying to think of a single senate race that an elected incumbent lost in the general, that would have been better for the incumbent party with an open seat. Even though people like Mark Kirk and Doug Jones got destroyed, they still did better compared to an open seat situation. I had to go back to 2008 to find Ted Stevens.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

Do you think he's learned anything from the signature debacle?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

Do you think he's learned anything from the signature debacle?

The signature debacle was just incompetence. I'm sure he'll hire more competent campaign staff this time.