MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[MT Treasurer]

A lot of this insistence on Stabenow's vulnerability is already reminding me of all the obsessive attention on NH for much of 2021 and the very popular idea back then (not just among Atlas posters, but also among pundits) that Hassan was somehow the most vulnerable Senator of that cycle despite representing a reliably blue state (and certainly the bluest of the four GOP target states). It’s fair to say that MI is still a Democratic-leaning state with a very ineffective GOP state party, and plenty of "weak" incumbents have been bailed out by their state's partisan lean (including Hassan, who just outperformed Biden, and Murray, who vastly outperformed expectations/polling, to name only two).

While I could see Stabenow losing to the right challenger (not sure if that is James) in a R-leaning environment, especially if the GOP wins the presidency, I don’t think Casey losing before Stabenow is impossible (even if you don’t consider it particularly likely).

Needless to say, Whitmer was also considered one of the weakest D governors seeking reelection and she just won reelection by double digits.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, Gary Peters also won by double digits and we saw what happened two years later.
And, I'm sure you agree with this but the idea that Murray was ever going to lose re election was preposterous. She was running in Washington for God's sake.

James basically performed at Generic R levels in 2020 — Democrats won the 2020 House Popular Vote in MI (no uncontested races) by almost the exact same margin that Peters won his Senate race by. James's showing is really only considered an impressive result because we’re so used to Republicans underperforming the presidential baseline; he is not a remarkable candidate by any means. I don’t think performing at Generic R levels will be enough for the MI GOP in 2024 unless they’ve already flipped the Presidency and won PA-PRES by 2-3% or so.

The point about Murray and Hassan is that both essentially matched Biden's % in a more Republican-leaning year in spite of their (real) weaknesses as incumbents. "Candidate quality" doesn’t mean a thing if blue state voters are no longer willing to elect Republican Senators.

[MT Treasurer]

Debbie "Queen Levin" Stabenow was always weaker than a generic D, so this is good news for Democrats' prospects of holding this seat. I’d be very surprised if this one flipped before PA or WI — probably the safest of the vulnerable Democratic-held seats.

[MT Treasurer]

Slotkin is a stronger candidate than Stabenow, MI is going to be the hardest battleground state for the GOP to win back at the presidential level, and the MI GOP is in an even worse position than the PA GOP when it comes to launching statewide campaign operations and relying on a firm base. It’s by no means impossible that this seat flips on a really good night for the GOP, but it’d basically the last seat to flip, probably even after PA and WI.

[MT Treasurer]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

[MT Treasurer]

The GOP field in this race so far has been surprisingly not-bad. Whether it’s enough to overcome the dismal state of the MI GOP and (potentially) the top of the ticket will be seen, but looking more and more like the best GOP pick-up opportunity after WV/MT/OH/NV.

Even more than AZ, where Sinema could play spoiler, and WI, which is traditionally to the right of MI?

1. To the extent Sinema would play spoiler, it would be to the detriment of Lake, not Gallego.

2. WI has more reliable D demographics/D metros than MI or PA and Baldwin an established brand. She’s not unbeatable, but running 2-4 points ahead of Biden will be enough even if the GOP wins the presidency.

[MT Treasurer]

Lake is not guaranteed to be the R nominee and we can’t count Masters and Lamb out.

What I said about Sinema taking more votes away from Rs than Ds applies to any potential R nominee in this race, not just Lake.

The truth is that the AZ race is unlikely to even be particularly close as things stand now, the only question is whether Gallego wins by more or less than Kelly.

(Anyway, let’s stick to discussion of the MI race.)

[MT Treasurer]

There’s also a danger of overestimating Republican chances here just because most of the other swing state races (WI/MI/AZ) look even more out of reach and Rogers just seems above-average/particularly formidable next to people like Lake, Masters, and McCormick.

This is the same "overton window"-type of trap some us fell into in NV-SEN 2022 with Laxalt, who was obviously more competent than Masters, Oz, and Walker, but still no better than a generic R.

A generic R — giving MI GOP primary voters the benefit of the doubt for a moment in that I’m assuming they will actually nominate that kind of person — will still face major obstacles in 2024:

• The top of the ticket will be a drag here, particularly if Trump is the nominee. Good Republican candidates have lost because of the top of the ticket before, and a generic one only gets you so far if the man leading the ticket implodes.
• The Republican coalition will be even less reliable in down-ballot races in 2024, given how reliant the Republican nominee will be on winning over people who either still lean Democratic in down-ballot races, have recently supported Democrats in down-ballot races or have been Democrats their entire life. Republicans really can’t afford many split-ticket votes here given how close MI would be in a competitive national race.
• Joe Biden's unusually poor numbers for an incumbent Democrat don’t necessarily translate into a Democratic underperformance in down-ballot races, as we’ve seen in multiple elections now, particularly 2022. Yes, "higher turnout" will likely benefit Republicans here, but it obviously doesn’t explain the entire Democratic overperformance in 2022.
• The MI Democratic Party is one of the best-run swing state Democratic parties, and the MI GOP... isn’t — this matters less in a presidential year, but it doesn’t exactly help.

I’d also argue that Slotkin is a stronger Democrat than Stabenow.

TL;DR: One of the better pick-up opportunities for the GOP, but a lot will have to go their way here for it to actually flip. I don’t see it going Republican before NV, assuming Brown is the nominee there.

[MT Treasurer]

All fair, but it should be much easier for Rs to distance themselves from Trump then Democrats from Biden

For incumbent Democrats with a robust brand it likely won’t be, but for Slotkin it will indeed be harder given that she’s not that well-known statewide and can defined as a liberal party-line vote for Biden. There’s definitely an opening for Republicans here (their best and probably only opportunity after WV/OH/MT/NV), but we won’t even be talking about this race if Trump goes down hard in the presidential race (in that case they’d be lucky to even get the 2 pick-ups they need to flip the chamber).

[MT Treasurer]

If you guys want to have a measuring contest on your past predictions, make it a separate thread.  It's derailing this one.

It’s also — if you’ll permit this final observation — disingenuous of BRTD to routinely attack other posters for certain wrong predictions they made in the past when he himself only got lucky in 2022 because he always predicts sweeping Democratic victories:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2020/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2020/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606

(this should suffice?)

Guess what? When you always predict a sweep for your party, you’re bound to get it right eventually, but that doesn’t mean that you actually invested a lot of your thought in your predictions.

The truth is that everybody on this forum has made some good and some not-so-good/downright awful calls in the past. Habitually attacking others for some random online predictions on an obscure Internet forum so that you get your daily ego boost when you don’t have much to show for yourself is hardly the sign of a self-confident person.

(I didn’t want to further derail this thread, but since he does this all the time, I felt like it needed to be pointed out.)  

[MT Treasurer]

But…but…but Atlas told me he was an unbeatable titan who only got screwed over by 2022 in a fluke.

One of the GOP's biggest problems is that those Republican candidates who have the potential to reshake the race by creating a different, non-traditional coalition (e.g. Craig) often lack the resources, experience, national support, and (sometimes) simply the seriousness to effectively compete.

Meanwhile, those candidates who are capable of running at least a somewhat serious campaign (e.g. McCormick, Rogers) lack the realization that the GOP has long moved on from whatever it was under Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Paul Ryan.

A candidate who combines both can do very well, but they’re few and far between, almost non-existent.