Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Diouf]

Frederik Hjorth has made a calculation of the effective number of parties in parliament according to the current polling average. We are again heading towards a new record of fragmentation with an effective number of parties near 8.

https://twitter.com/fghjorth/status/1584513591520428033

[mileslunn]

How likely is it Red Bloc wins again as seem to have a small lead although not massive?  Is it possible Denmark sees government change like Sweden or does it look more secure.  Mette Frederiksen to consternation of some other left wing parties has been quite tough on immigration compared to Sweden so that might help there.

[JimJamUK]

How likely is it Red Bloc wins again as seem to have a small lead although not massive?  Is it possible Denmark sees government change like Sweden or does it look more secure.  Mette Frederiksen to consternation of some other left wing parties has been quite tough on immigration compared to Sweden so that might help there.

The polling average has the Red Bloc (such as it is) at a bit below 50%. For them to win a majority they very likely need The Alternative to make the 2% threshold/the Danish People’s Party to not. It’s hard to see Frederiksen getting chucked out, as the Blue Bloc has drifted down to the low-mid 40s with the balance made up by The Moderates (led by ex Venstre ex prime minister), who are all about a cross-bloc government which in practice will need to include the Social Democrats (most moderate Red Party and clearly the largest of all parties in Parliament), and will consequently also likely need to make Frederiksen prime minister (the Social Democrats have shown no interest in dumping her, and they’re obviously not going to back another party’s candidate). The Moderates could hypothetically end up doing a deal with the Blue Bloc, but that would be a very unwieldy majority with the sorts of parties that Lokke is going to the polls claiming need to be kept out of influence.

[Diouf]

Today's Voxmeter see the Moderates keep on growing. Now up to 11.5% and 21 seats. Conservatives at 6.0% and now below their 2019 result.

https://twitter.com/SorenStorm76/status/1584769219794706437?t=HK8dnShCsscnWQk-zI...

[Diouf]

New poll of Faroe Islands by spyr.fo/Portalin.

Union Party 29.9%
Social Democrats 27.3%
Republic 18.7%
People's Party 16.7%
Centre Party 4.3%
Progress Party 3.2%

So according to this poll, it looks like a fairly safe seat for each of the two pro-union parties, one centre-right and one centre-left. Those two parties also won the seats in 2019.

[Mike88]

The possible A+M+B alliance is already at 74 seats in that poll. 3 seats ahead of the Blue Bloc as a whole.

[Diouf]

The possible A+M+B alliance is already at 74 seats in that poll. 3 seats ahead of the Blue Bloc as a whole.

Still quite some seats to go though. But with the Moderates so much larger, it at least seems quite certain that such a centre-left government could do without the Red-Green Alliance. But would of course still need SPP backing.

Løkke said today his preferred government is one with Social Democrats + Liberals. Those three have 91 seats here, even before looking at the North Atlantic seats. Løkke said he was of course also willing to let the Conservatives join, and be willing to discuss it with the Social Liberals.

[Diouf]

Epinion has made an analysis of voters in doubt about their party choice.

Firstly, they look at the parties in the two current blocs. They look at their voters' second choice, and list how many of them have a party in the other bloc as second choice.

The Social Democrats are clearly the party with the most risk in this regard. 2.6% of all voters are Social Democrats with a Blue Bloc party as second choice, while only 1.1% of all voters are voting for a Blue Bloc party with Social Democrats as second choice.
The Social Democrats also have a lot of voters with Moderates as the second choice. 3% of all voters are Social Democrats with Moderates as second choice, while 1.5% are Moderate voters with Social Democrats as second choice. 2.4% of all voters are Liberals with Moderates as second choice, but their potential gains are bigger as 3.0% of all voters are Moderates with Liberals as second choice.

https://twitter.com/christergaard/status/1585657611155816455

The Social Democrats has started to fall back a bit in the polls again. They reached a peak of around 27% in the polling average, but are now down to 25.8%. Perhaps the effect of their good start to the campaign starting to fade, the re-emergence of their political scandals + the Moderates booming. The party has now started a full-blown war against the Moderates. Going harshly after the party's tax plans and attacking them for a vision paper which says it would be better far out in the future to replace the state pension scheme with one which is savings-based for most people. Also Mette Frederiksen herself went hard after Løkke after he repeated his earlier statement that it would be easier to form a government across the centre without Mette Frederiksen leading the party. She said it was "too cocky by Løkke to both wanna decide who's PM and who leads the Social Democrats. It underlines that much of what he's said about a broad government, he doesn't mean. It shows Løkke will go towards the Blue parties, and an excuse will be made for not creating a broad government".

[If my soul was made of stone]

[ingemann]

The possible A+M+B alliance is already at 74 seats in that poll. 3 seats ahead of the Blue Bloc as a whole.

I must admit without the three parties having 90 seat on their own, I don’t really see the benefit of B being part of the coalition for A or M.

[JimJamUK]

I must admit without the three parties having 90 seat on their own, I don’t really see the benefit of B being part of the coalition for A or M.

Yeah, from the Social Democrats perspective it’s not like Radikale would be a counterweight on economics or immigration, while from any Blue party’s perspective they would be dragging the coalition too far to the left on value politics. If a cross-bloc government is formed then Radikale getting chucked seems a reasonable possibility.

[ingemann]

I must admit without the three parties having 90 seat on their own, I don’t really see the benefit of B being part of the coalition for A or M.

Yeah, from the Social Democrats perspective it’s not like Radikale would be a counterweight on economics or immigration, while from any Blue party’s perspective they would be dragging the coalition too far to the left on value politics. If a cross-bloc government is formed then Radikale getting chucked seems a reasonable possibility.

I think that SPP joining a AM government is more likely than B. The only way I could see B joining is if they correct people are culled in the election (Zenia Stampe or at least her faction) and Lidegaard becomes the new leader of B. I’m not the biggest fan of Lidegaard but he at least understand that they need to make some major compromises on immigration. As for value politics, I don’t really think either A or M really cares about it, as long as it doesn’t make the general population angry at the government, they don’t really care and that extend far out to the right and left.

[Diouf]

Klaus Riskær Pedersen, who ran unsuccessfully with a party in his own name in 2019, has said he has voted for the Liberals at this election. The party he himself represented as a MEP after being elected in 1989. I would have thought he would have gone for the Moderates considering that project of a centrist government is quite similar to his own ideas back from 2019.

[Diouf]

The Alternative is now at 2.0% in the weighted average from politologi.dk for Jyllands-Posten. And with DPP at 2.4%, things point towards 12 parties entering parliament. The Alternative could enter parliament even if they get slightly less than 2%, as they could be winning a constituency seat in Copenhagen already at around 1.9% nationally. It seems less likely for DPP to enter parliament that way, but if it were to happen it would probably be in the biggest constituency Zealand, where they are stronger than average and has some well-known names like Pia Kjærsgaard and René Christensen. Southern Jutland should be the other option.

The weighted average:

Social Democrats 25.8% 46 seats
SPP 8.5% 15
Red-Green Alliance 6.8% 12
The Alternative 2.0%  4
Independent Greens 0.7% 0

Social Liberals 4.0% 7
Moderates 9.8% 18
Christian Democrats 0.4% 0

Conservatives 6.7% 12
Liberals 12.5% 22
Denmark Democrats 8.6% 15
New Right 4.5% 8
Liberal Alliance 6.6% 12
DPP 2.4% 4

Seat totals for different options. The expected Faroese and Greenlandic seats would provide two extra seats for the Social Democrats, 1 for the Liberals, and 1 centre-left IA. So those four seats would just give the top option below a majority. The Red Bloc would still be three seats short of a majority. Both blocs would get a majority if they added the Moderates, but that would of course go against everything the Moderates are build on, if such a majority was to be formed. The Moderate seats would also be needed to enable the really grand coalition with Social Democrats, Liberals + Conservatives. The centre-right option is far short, and of course the Løkke - Støjberg relationship isn't exactly cordial. Støjberg has perhaps opened the door slightly more for that option by saying if she were to support a government with the Moderates, it should have as tough an immigration policy as the one she was a minister in for Løkke from 2015-2019. Maybe it's just a way to troll Løkke's new socially liberal followers by reminding them of the tough policies of his previous governments.

Soc Dem - Moderate - Liberal: 86
Soc Dem - Moderate - Soc Lib - SPP: 86
Red bloc: 84
Soc Dem - Conservatives - Liberals: 80
Moderate - Liberal - Conservatives - LA - DD: 79
Blue bloc: 73

[Diouf]

A look at the parties, and which candidates could be elected, and what could happen to the party leader.

Social Democrats seems like they will land very close to their 2019 result, although the trend has been slightly downwards in recent days after a great start to their campaign. With both DPP and Alternative likely to cross the treshold, a status quo result would still cost them around 2-3 seats. It will mostly be rather boring in terms of MPs elected, as most of the incumbents are running again and will be safely re-elected.

In Copenhagen, Ida Auken had a brilliant personal result in 2019 when she was elected for the Social Liberals, so if she can just half match that under her new colours, she will be safely elected and probably take the seat of Lars Aslan, one of the party's hard-liners on immigration. I think all ministers will be re-elected, but if anyone will be in trouble it will perhaps be Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Rasmus Prehn in Northern Jutland. In 2019 the party won 7 seats, and he was only elected as the 6th of them. He has been revealed to have a lavish expense account at the ministry with significant sums spend on dinners with undisclosed persons. Especially if one of their seats are lost in Northern Jutland, he could be out. It will be interesting to see whether there is a personal vote punishment for the most disliked minister, Trine Bramsen, and for the fall guy for the Mink Scandal, ex-Minister for Food and Agriculture and Fishery Mogens Jensen, but both of them should do enough to get elected anyway.

Mette Frederiksen herself will get plenty of votes, and clearly top the personal vote ranking again. She will have a key role in the government negotiations after an election, and there seems to be little appetite in the party for another Social Democrat to become PM, even if her person is probably causing the biggest issue for their stated goal of a cross-centre government.

Liberals face a massacre, even if they can tidy the ship a bit towards the end. It looks like a loss of 15-20 seats, and even though several big names have left the party or parliament during this term, it will still mean several incumbent MPs losing their jobs.

One of the more prominent names who could be in trouble is Troels Lund Poulsen, a part of the party leadership and Financial spokesperson. Many point to him as the main man behind the strategy of presenting a united front with the other Blue Bloc parties, and being open to Støjberg back in government and closer ties with DPP and New Right. He's also seen as part of the rural part of the party, which has at times pushed Ellemann around. In 2019, he was elected 4th of 6 MPs, but if they only get 3 or 4 seats this time, he could be in trouble. Particularly if handball legend Erik Veje Rasmussen can leverage his popularity for a seat in parliament. Another important rural voice, parliamentary group leader Thomas Danielsen, could also be in severe trouble in Western Jutland. But there, the most prominent representative of the rural wing, MEP Søren Gade, will certainly be elected, and will expect a significant influence.

Jakob Ellemann-Jensen will win a safe seat in Eastern Jutland. In 2019, he was 12th on the national, personal vote ranking. And while the party will lose a lot of votes, he should still be able to climb the personal vote ranking as the leader of the second largest party. A big defeat has been baked in to the expectations, and with the Conservative collapse it at least seems fairly certain the party will be the biggest Blue party. So I wouldn't expect any resignation or challenge. As long as Frederiksen as PM is the Social Democrats' first, second and third demand of cross-centre negotiations, it will probably be fairly easy to keep on rejecting those overtures. And then he can try to build the party up as the indisputed leader of the Blue parties. If the situation becomes gridlocked for months and at some point another PM is to be had, then I wouldn't rule out them entering such a government. They could be pushed somewhat by business organizations, and rural organizations urging them to avoid the agricultural sector being punished too hard in a centre-left deal. If Moderates have the decisive seats in the centre, he could make all kinds of offers to lure Løkke to the right. But such a centre-right government would need tacit support from either the right wing parties or the Social Democrats, neither of which seems very likely.

[Diouf]

Moderates are currently the third-biggest party in the weighted polling average, although the late Social Democratic pension attack might cause them to decline a bit. Still, it seems like they will at least get around 13-15 seats. Most of them will be completely untested and unknown candidates.

Apart from Løkke, the only other with previous parliamentary experience is the former Liberal Jakob Engel-Schmidt, who left parliament in 2017 after being caught driving while on cocaine. He will surely get a seat in Northern Zealand. In the party's probably strongest area, Copenhagen, there could be seats for theater director Jon Stephensen and voluntary court help NGO co-founder Nanna Gotfredsen, while journalist Jeppe Søe will likely win a seat in Western Jutland. These are the candidates with some name recognition. And then in this campaign, doctor Monika Rubin has gained some traction and will probably win a seat in Copenhagen Environs.
Apart from them, there are quite a few unknown business people and some enthusisastic young voices. Interesting to see how capable their MPs will be, and how well Løkke and Engel-Schmidt will be able to whip them.

This is probably extra crucial as Løkke is likely to play a key role in the government negotiations after the election, where he will both have to make policy compromises and decide who should get important positions if they end up in government. Løkke himself will win a lot of personal votes in the Zealand constituency, and probably in top 5 on the national level.

SPP have been slowly gaining through the campaign, and will likely beat their 2019 result and add a seat or three. So it will mostly be about a few, new faces joining their parliamentary squad.

However, in Copenhagen they actually have four incumbents running as Lisbeth Bech-Nielsen has moved there from Northern Jutland. They only just won three seats in 2019, so they need a lot of progress to get to four seats. So either Bech-Nielsen or one of Carl Valentin and Halime Oguz will likely lose their seat. In Eastern Jutland, incumbent MP Rasmus Nordqvist will try to defend his seat for his new party after joining from the Alternative during the term. If they stay at two seats there, it would require him taking the seat of another incumbent Charlotte Broman Mølbæk.

The party has been extremely loyal to Mette Frederiksen and her one-party government to the degree that they have received some ridicule for it. However, it has proved very successful for the party. They have not challenged the government on any of its scandals, and have instead focused on setting a few concrete demands, which they knew they could likely get agreement on. With Frederiksen's stated ambition to go for a centrist government, I would perhaps have expected bigger gains for the SPP as those wanting to state their preference for a pure Red Bloc government could depart the Social Democrats and move towards them. Still, it will be another really good result for Olsen Dyhr in charge of the party, whose Copenhagen result will probably move her up from her 11th place in the national vote ranking from 2019. The party seems quite eager to join a government, and it seems a possible outcome. The question is then whether they are better prepared for joining a government with a party with a fairly blue economic policy than they were in 2011.

Denmark Democrats have faded after the early polls of around 10% and another new party, the Moderates, have taken a lot of the media attention. Still it looks like a good result for a new party, and a certain return to parliament for Inger Støjberg.

In the current polling average, they would get 14 seats. A majority of them is likely to consist of ex-DPP MPs (Peter Skaarup, Marlene Harpsøe, Jens Henrik Thulelsen Dahl, Søren Espersen, Karina Adsbøl, Hans Kristian Skibby, Dennis Flydtkjær, Lise Bech) or someone related to them (Therese Skaarup, Susie Jessen and Kristian Bøgsted). The others will be less well-known former Liberal councillors or party members.

Støjberg herself will take a certain seat in Northern Jutland. In 2019, she was 4th on the national ranking of personal votes, and she will likely do really well again. Her party is of course a lot smaller than the Liberals in 2019, but there are also far less challenges for those votes from other candidates inside the party. With the Blue parties nowhere near a majority, it seems like she won't really have a role in government negotiations. She will be no part in cross-centre negotiations. In the unlikely scenario of Løkke joining the full Blue bloc, she would of course have a role to play, but it would require parties to her right accepting it as well, so the interesting negotiations would be with Moderates and DPP/New Right. Instead, she will likely be a strong critic of whatever new government will be formed, especially when that government starts to loosen immigration policy somewhat or dumps the Rwanda plans. But she also emphasized the party's role as a responsible party and with several experienced MPs in the group, they will likely also take part in broad agreements on a number of policy areas.

[JimJamUK]

A look at the parties, and which candidates could be elected, and what could happen to the party leader.

Social Democrats seems like they will land very close to their 2019 result, although the trend has been slightly downwards in recent days after a great start to their campaign. With both DPP and Alternative likely to cross the treshold, a status quo result would still cost them around 2-3 seats. It will mostly be rather boring in terms of MPs elected, as most of the incumbents are running again and will be safely re-elected.

In Copenhagen, Ida Auken had a brilliant personal result in 2019 when she was elected for the Social Liberals, so if she can just half match that under her new colours, she will be safely elected and probably take the seat of Lars Aslan, one of the party's hard-liners on immigration. I think all ministers will be re-elected, but if anyone will be in trouble it will perhaps be Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Rasmus Prehn in Northern Jutland. In 2019 the party won 7 seats, and he was only elected as the 6th of them. He has been revealed to have a lavish expense account at the ministry with significant sums spend on dinners with undisclosed persons. Especially if one of their seats are lost in Northern Jutland, he could be out. It will be interesting to see whether there is a personal vote punishment for the most disliked minister, Trine Bramsen, and for the fall guy for the Mink Scandal, ex-Minister for Food and Agriculture and Fishery Mogens Jensen, but both of them should do enough to get elected anyway.

Auken’s vote seems like a wildcard. Will SD voters like a well known green voice or tire of a serial party-switcher in the least green Red party (probably the former, but not guaranteed)? Some news organisations have speculated that Jeppe Kofod may be in trouble in Zealand (comparisons to Anders Samuelsen), but despite having one of the smaller nomination districts he should get a large number of votes given his name recognition.  Rasmus Prehn looks in danger, but benefits from the fact fellow minister Ane Halsboe-Jorgensen was the one only elected thanks to a compensatory seat last time, and an Aalborg based MF is retiring and the nomination district will struggle to elect a new candidate in his place.

[Diouf]

Liberal Alliance has made impressive gains throughout the campaign, and it looks like their parliamentary group will explode in size from their current 3 MPs to 13 according to the latest average. Several of the party's profiles retired from politics or left the party when they weren't elected in 2019, or due to the infighting after the loss. And for long parts of this term, it has looked like they would again have a tough fight around the threshold, which haven't made them very attractive for prospective parliamentary candidates. So their bench is quite thin, and we will see several new faces in their new expanded parliamentary group.

Their current three MPs will of course be re-elected. Ole Birk Olesen has moved to the Copenhagen constituency, while party leader Alex Vanopslagh has taken over his old Eastern Jutland constituency. Vanopslagh was elected on the most marginal on their four seats in 2019 in Western Jutland, so would have been much safer elected in Eastern Jutland even if the result would be just above the threshold again. Carsten Bach, MP from 2015-19, will likely make his return to parliament, but otherwise it will be all new MPs. With the party being the biggest among 18-34 years old, there could be the potential for at least some of their very young candidates being elected.

Alex Vanopslagh has become one of the most popular party leaders, and will surely get a great personal vote tally. I would be surprised if he doesn't break into the top 10 nationally. With a Blue majority looking unlikely, it also seems like Vanopslagh won't play any major role in the government negotiations. While his party is not as disliked as the three right-wing anti-immigration parties by the centrist parties, their very right-wing economic policies do make it difficult to see them as a part of some centrist governing majority. The combination of liberal, reform parties are not really close to 90 seats, and it's not possible to see them in a majority with the Social Democrats.

The Red-Green Alliance has again had a fairly underwhelming campaign, and looks like they will end around their 2019 result. They also haven't been able to draw many voters from the Social Democrats despite the governing party's apparent centrist turn. Currently, the polling average points towards a loss of one seat to 12 seats.

With their choice of semi-closed lists, there is not a lot of doubt about who will get the seats in the respective constituencies. It will more be about in which constituencies they get their seats. In Copenhagen, Pelle Dragsted tops the list and seems likely to take over as the party's front figure during this term. As third on the list, the experienced Jette Gottlieb will also very likely get another term in parliament. In Northern Zealand, the party's next young female hope, Copenhagen City councillor Sinem Demir, will likely become MP. The former SPP MP Trine Pertou Mach will return to parliament for the Red-Green Alliance in Zealand.

Unlike precedent, Mai Villadsen does not run in Copenhagen, where the Red-Green front figure usually gets a lot of personal votes. Instead, she runs in the party's second best constituency, Eastern Jutland. So while, she will still get a fine amount of votes in Aarhus, this probably means she won't be as high on the personal vote rankings as Skipper and Schmidt-Nielsen were in the two previous elections. The party's only real chance of influence on government formation should be with a majority for the normal Red Bloc. Then, they could end up being support party for something like a Social Democrat - SPP - Social Liberal cabinet, but the negotiations will likely be more difficult in 2019. If it's not a Red Bloc majority, they will be the party that the centrist parties will want to cut off.

Conservatives have collapsed spectacularly in this campaign, and now looks like getting a result below their 2019 result. The recent average see them falling from 12 to 11 seats. So this means that it will be a fight for several incumbent MPs to keep their seats, and those joining the party from other centre-right parties in recent years also face an uphill battle.

In Copenhagen, incumbent Katarina Ammitzbøll will again be challenged for the one seat by Helle Bonnesen and Nikolaj Bøgh as well as former Liberal Alliance MP Laura Lindahl. In Copenhagen Environs, ex-Liberal MP Britt Bager will hope for a second Conservative seat, but it could well now only be one like in 2019, which will be won by Rasmus Jarlov. In Zealand, I think incumbent Birgitte Jerkel could lose her seat to former Conservative Youth leader Rune Kristensen, who did very well in the 2021 local elections in Næstved. In Eastern Jutland, ex-Liberal MP Marcus Knuth and former Christian Democrat leader Isabella Arendt run alongside incumbent Mona Juul, who won the only Conservative seat there in 2019. It might be two this time, but at least one of those big names won't make it. I think Arendt might draw the short straw. In Northern Jutland, Jakob Axel Nielsen, who was Minister of Health from 2007-2010, will try to make his comeback, but will likely have to take the seat of incumbent MP Per Larsen.

Søren Pape's own seat in Western Jutland won't be in danger. But the many scandals will likely lead to a bit of a decline in his personal vote tally, who was enough to make him 9th nationwide in 2019. It could also mean the party losing the second seat in the constituency, which it won in 2019. Pape is one of those leaders who could quickly be out of his job. It seems completely unlikely that Pape will lead them in another election after this downfall, and so they might as well make the change sooner rather than later. If the result of the election is an uncertain result, and one with weeks or months of government negotiations afterwards, that could be an argument for staying as leader, at least until the issue is settled instead of resigning on election night. Participation in a government could extend Pape's time in top politics, but it's harder to see them in a broad government than the Liberals. And the strong right wing in the party would likely oppose it. And a Blue majority or Blue + Løkke seems unlikely.
The likely leader replacements are Rasmus Jarlov, Mette Abildgaard and Mai Mercado. Broadly, Jarlov as the representative of the party's right on immigration and justice, Abildgaard as the green, modern and urban conservative, and Mercado as the compromise candidate.

[Diouf]

New Right will not get the massive gains they looked like achieving before the Denmark Democrats emerged, but they still look like almost doubling their 2019 result. The current polling has them going from 4 to 8 seats. They have been remarkably professional and well-drilled as a new party without previous parliamentary experience. In 2019, they got their preferred and most tested four candidates elected. Now we will see whether the four additions will do as well.

All four incumbents should retain their seats. If they get 8 seats nationwide, it will most likely mean one seat each in 8 of the 9 normal constituencies, or one seat in seven of them and then two seats in Vermund's constituency in Southern Jutland. If they follow the patterns from last time, it seems like Copenhagen and Western Jutland are the two constituencies, where they would be most likely to miss out on seats. None of the likely new MPs are really well-known. If they get a second seat in Southern Jutland, it could be a return to parliament for Jan Køpke Christensen, who represented the Progress Party in parliament from 1989-1998.

With a Blue majority almost out of the picture, it seems like Vermund won't be much involved in the government negotiations, and have to prepare for another term in opposition. When she started the party, she said she would at most sit in parliament for two terms as she wasn't a career politician. However, she has started to renege on this now. So it will likely be another term where she will try to build bonds with the other Blue parties, and keep the centre-right parties from entering a cross-centre government or then take their voters if they do. With the party doubling its share, her personal vote tally must rise quite a lot, and perhaps enough to enter the top 10 nationally.

Social Liberals forced this election, but looks like they will come out of it quite badly. They have had real difficulties in explaining two of their major protests against this government. They took down Frederiksen's government, but then started the campaign out by saying they supported her as PM again. They say they can't support the Rwanda plans, but would be okay with them if the EU were doing it. Some of this suggests a weak party leader being dragged around by the different party fractions, and constantly have to find a new compromise instead of following a well-planned cohesive path. Their projected seat number is 7 versus the 16 they won in 2019.

Sofie Carsten Nielsen did not perhaps not see this significant decline coming. At least she didn't opt for moving constituency to a safe place like Copenhagen or Eastern Jutland. She decided to stay in the Copenhagen Environs. If the party wins seven seats, they will likely win three seats in the electoral Capital region. This would most likely end up with a seat each in Copenhagen, Copenhagen Environs and Norther Zealand, so Carsten Nielsen would take the Copenhagen Environs seat. However, there is a minor chance the party could overperform in Copenhagen and win two constituency seats there, so there would only be a seat left for either Copenhagen Environs or Northern Zealand. The party's top two vote getters in Copenhagen, Ida Auken and Jens Rohde, have both left the party, which reduces the possibility of that scenario. They have found some decent enough replacements in Klaus Bondam, who had two mayor posts in Copenhagen, the former Alternative MP Carolina Magdalene Maier and regional councillor Thomas Rohden, but I don't think they will draw as many votes as Auken.
If the party gets six seats, they will likely get one in Copenhagen and one in either Northern Zealand or Copenhagen Environs. In the last election, there was only 1.200 votes between their tallies in those two areas, so it would likely be tight where the seat would go. Carsten Nielsen's status as party leader should push up the votes in Copenhagen Environs, but in Northern Zealand deputy leader Martin Lidegaard is also a quite strong candidate.

While the Social Liberals will get pounded, it looks likely they will have a significant role to play after the election, and it does at least seem very likely that they will get their wish of a multi-party government. The Moderates have increased to the size, where it could be possible with a majority without the Social Liberals, but in many scenarios the Social Liberal seats would still be needed. Either for a centrist option or if there's a Red Bloc majority. So if Carsten Nielsen keeps her seat, which is more likely than not, she should lead them in those negotiations. If the fortunes don't improve, there could then quickly come talk of a change of leader.

DPP has collapsed dramatically over the past years, but at least polls currently have them just above the threshold for this election. The most recent average has them at 2.7% and five seats, vs 8.7% and 16 seats in 2019. Many of the party's MPs have left the party already, but there are still one or two of the incumbents who will lose their seats.

Morten Messerschmidt has moved from Northern Zealand to the Copenhagen Environs. While Southern Jutland would have been the safest place to run, Copenhagen Environs at least looks like the best place to run in the Capital electoral region. Last time, the party did do a fair bit better in Copenhagen Environs than in both Northern Zealand and Copenhagen, so Messerschmidt should be quite certain to be elected if they cross the threshold. Two of their biggest names and incumbent MPs, party founder Pia Kjærsgaard and René Christensen, both run in the Zealand constituency, and only one of them will get in. Leadership candidate Merete Dea Larsen also runs there, but it seems less likely she will challenge for the spot. The safe seat in Southern Jutland will likely be won by MEP Peter Kofod ahead of incumbent MP Susanne Eilersen. Kofod is the party's deputy leader, and therefore likely to take over, at least temporarily, if Messerschmidt is sentenced in his court case early next year.

With the Blue parties far from a majority, Messerschmidt will not really be involved in government negotiations. He will also soon have to focus on his court case, and trying to rebuild the party.

[Diouf]

Alternative looks likely to make it into parliament after being below the threshold for almost the whole term. The consolidation of some of the many small and micro green parties helped along with Uffe Elbæk's return. And several centre-left politicians have signalled that an tactical vote for the Alternative would be a fine choice. The polling average now has them getting in and thereby getting 4 seats, a decline of one.

The party's safest seat is of course in Copenhagen. And their strength there means they could enter parliament through a Copenhagen constituency seat, even if they are just below the threshold nationally. Party leader and Copenhagen councillor Franciska Rosenkilde will take the seat in Copenhagen, while the party's long-time sole MP Torsten Gejl will take another safe seat in Eastern Jutland. It's more open where the third and fourth seat would fall, especially since they don't have many strong names drawing in votes in most constituencies. They will likely have to hit five seats, before Teresa Scavenius, former Alternative leadership candidate and founder of micro party Momentum, will get elected in Northern Jutland.

The Alternative will mostly be relevant in government negotiations if there's a Red Bloc majority. Otherwise, they are probably too far left to become relevant in a centrist project.

Independent Greens are not anywhere near parliament in the polls. Even though Elbæk and some of the progressive types have gone back to the Alternative, there still seems to be a mismatch between the party's policies and the electorate which could help them get in. If they are to reach the threshold, they need to mobilize a broad Denk-like electorate, but their policies and statements on the national level are more BIJ1-like. And while reports have revealed, that very little time is spent on intersectionality and climate issues (except floodings in Pakistan) when Sikandar Siddique speaks in immigrant neighbourhoods, it still seems like the policies and possible electorate aren't aligned enough. But I haven't heard much about how professional they actually are in mobilizing in the immigration areas, where they will have to do very well to make a shock entrance into parliament. It will be interesting to follow some of the immigrant-heavy polling places, where the Social Liberals topped in 2019, and see if the Independent Greens end up as the biggest party in some of those places.

Siddique himself is running in Copenhagen. The Epinion constituency polling actually showed them doing better in the Copenhagen Environs, where Siddique ran well last time for the Alternative. But if they do cross the treshold in some way, they would likely win a seat both places. If they get in, co-founder and former mayor for Alternative in Copenhagen, Niko Grünfeld will take a seat in Eastern Jutland.

The party does not look like coming in, and should they do so, I think there would be very little interest in including them in a majority formation. It will be interesting to see whether Siddique will keep interest in the project, and whether it can be transformed into a more broad Denk-like immigrant party.

Christian Democrats looked like they could make it this time when Arendt and Rohde presented their ambitious, centrist project. But the old guard forced them out, and then Løkke presented his centrist project. Marianne Karlsmose looks very unlikely to draw them into parliament.

If they do cross the threshold, Karlsmose has the most certain seat in Western Jutland.

They haven't been represented in parliament since 2005, but there still is an established, loyal party congregation, which always manages to collect enough signatures to run for parliament. The 2021 local elections showed progress, and the party now has 1 regional councillor and 12 local councillors, so there's some elected representatives in the party. Karlsmose was an emergency solution as leader, so she might decide to step down and let another take over. Precedent suggests they will continue to run for parliament, even if they will probably lose a lot of votes this time compared to 2019.

[H. Ross Peron]

1. What are the biggest policy differences between the Moderates and Social Liberals?

2. Why did Arendt move from the Christian Democrats to the Conservatives? Did the party end up liberalizing on abortion in hopes of expanding its electorate? If that's the case, is there a chance of a splinter social conservative party eventually emerging or would the base for such a party be too small?

[Diouf]

1. What are the biggest policy differences between the Moderates and Social Liberals?

2. Why did Arendt move from the Christian Democrats to the Conservatives? Did the party end up liberalizing on abortion in hopes of expanding its electorate? If that's the case, is there a chance of a splinter social conservative party eventually emerging or would the base for such a party be too small?

1. The Social Liberals are a bog-standard socialliberal party. Quite centre-right on economy, very green, very pro-EU, very pro-immigration (both labour + refugee) and quite woke. Moderates doesn't exactly have fully fleshed out policies on all issues, so much of it is about Løkke himself. His biggest focus is on major (laregely centre-rightish) reforms of the economy and the public sector (particularly health care), and is seen as very competent on those issues. Green issues are not where he is the strongest or most vocal, but they are probably somewhere around the Social Democrats and the Liberals. He is softer than all the Blue parties on immigration. He says that many of the tightenings were necessary, but that especially in recent years there have been too many "symbolic policies" and some stupid rules sending home well-integrated people, who were working or studying. He says it's about "removing the thistles", but he is far from the Social Liberals lefty position. Also very pro-EU and international cooperation. And then there are some more unique ideas like a "civic conscription" that all youths would have to do, and then a very complicated tax deal with some new elements.

2. It was both Arendt leaving and their MP Jens Rohde saying he wouldn't run again (and later leaving as well). The two made, likely with Rohde as the main man, an ambitious and well thought-out centrist policy plan, and weakened the party's opposition to abortion down to just forcing the health care service to tell women that have a right to receive counseling about alternatives to abortion. While the plan was approved by the relevant committees in the party, the opposition to it proved to big among the old guard, including Karlsmose, which opposed weakening abortion opposition. So that's why the two left. It actually looked somewhat promising with an detailed policy plan, a fairly popular leader in Arendt and a reformer and innovator like Rohde whose presence in parliament meant the party could be a part of political deals, and even one budget. It looked plausible the party could take the last step at an election. However, this was of course before the Moderates were officially founded, so it's very possible their project would then have been swept away anyway by the Moderate wave.
Considering this, it was fairly surprising Arendt went to the Conservatives. It would have made sense for her to team up with Løkke (but basically no politicians wanted to take that chance) and continue with a centrist project. The Conservatives are quite blue on both economy, immigration, justice etc. So the evil analysis would be that it was simply the centre-right party, where it looked like there was the biggest chance of being elected. The positive analysis might be something like it's a place where it's easy to be a religious politician, and where there is a minor social conservative trend, she could see herself somewhat in.
I don't think the Christian Democrats will splinter. Maybe someone will try to move the party a bit more in the conservative direction again on abortion after the two have left, but it's not like that's gonna be very helpful electorally.

Post from back then about their centrist plan:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327629.msg8065028#msg8065028

[Diouf]

The election on Faroe Islands is already today. Polls close at 21.00 CET, and results are expected to become clear around 00.00 - 01.00 CET.

Polls point towards a seat each for the Social Democrats and the Union Party, which would provide support for Social Democrats and Liberals in Denmark respectively. Their biggest challengers are the two pro-independence parties. The right-wing People's Party, which will support Liberals or Conservatives, and the left wing Republic, which hasn't said who it will support, but is likely to lean left.

[mileslunn]

What time do polls in Denmark close at and do they have exit polls?  Also what about Faroe Islands & Greenland as while not many seats if close could be deciding factor?  When do they post results?

[Diouf]

Polls have now closed in Faroe Islands, and results will begin ticking in here: https://kvf.fo/valurslit/