Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[mileslunn]

Still one seat difference at 99%.  My understanding is comes down to a few thousands votes?  Does this mean a recount or what are rules there for Denmark?

[rosin]

Still one seat difference at 99%.  My understanding is comes down to a few thousands votes?  Does this mean a recount or what are rules there for Denmark?

There will as standard be a recount tomorrow - normally it has no implications for the overall results, but this is a very special situation.

[rosin]

Finished - red bloc has reached 87 seats in DR's model - for now...

EDIT: Something is wrong in DR's model - the seat numbers add up to 176 (87+16+73). It seems that they just have forgotten subtracting a seat from Venstre, so the models line up.

[mileslunn]

So looks like Red Bloc will get a majority after all albeit barely.  Only caveat is still need to see Greenland results but history suggests both should be for Red Bloc.  Other is recount possibly changing things, but unlikely.  Still close enough that it is possible on some bills Frederiksen may rely on cross party instead of left wing parties and nothing stopping a centrist coalition either and I would think if smart, Social Democrats should leave that option open as gives them more bargaining power with parties further left.

[mileslunn]

Greenland so far has S in large lead, but IA only narrow 2nd place so possible it denies Red Bloc majority but unlikely.

[kaoras]

Greenland so far has S in large lead, but IA only narrow 2nd place so possible it denies Red Bloc majority but unlikely.

It doesn't matter because S doubles the next list so they would get both seats.

In any case there's very little % in.

[YL]

Finished - red bloc has reached 87 seats in DR's model - for now...

EDIT: Something is wrong in DR's model - the seat numbers add up to 176 (87+16+73). It seems that they just have forgotten subtracting a seat from Venstre, so the models line up.

They now have the Danish People’s Party on 4, so they’ve taken it off them instead.  So the results shown are still different: TV 2 gives Venstre 23 and DF 5, DR Venstre 24 and DF 4.

[Vosem]

Seems like the Red Bloc won, but nice to see a giant surge for the classical liberal party campaigning on TikTok.

[Logical]

Near final results for Greenland.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1587628615151263745
1 seat each for Siumut and Inuit Ataqatigiit, both part of the Red Bloc.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

with a red bloc government relying on Greenland, I have to expect there's demands for more autonomy. Both S and IA are at least pro-autonomy if not pro-independence.

[Horus]

So does Frederiksen stay on as PM? She's probably my favorite European leader.

[Babeuf]

Don't know if Frederiksen will want to go with a pure Red bloc arrangement with only a one-seat majority. If she enters into negotiations with Lokke I imagine she'll have leverage with that option as a backup though (unless the Social Liberals ruin her negotiating position by ruling out a pure Red government I guess).

[Diouf]

Social Democrats ended in the scenario, which I have mentioned several times. They got 50 constituency seats, while only deserving 49 seats nationally. I haven't seen this possibility mentioned anywhere in the media, and it seems like DRs model didn't include this possibility, since they were always lower on seats for the Social Democratic.

I haven't made the calculations myself yet, but it seems like this extra seat for the Social Democrats, would otherwise have gone to the Liberals.

[Diouf]

DR already published a mea culpa for not bothering to model the electoral system properly, and thereby underestimating the Social Democrat seat tally. Their prognosis in general didn't do very well either, as it overestimated the Blue parties by a good amount.

Too bad for TV2 that they didn't keep their cool with their prognosis. It certainly looked like someone manually decided to converge towards DRs model instead of trusting their model. They changed it from 87 Red to 84 Red at once, which was of course in hindsight the wrong decision.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/historisk-situation-gav-s-faa-mandater-i-prognose

[YL]

Yes, largest remainder method on 175 seats gives SD 49, Venstre 24, Mod 16, SF 15, Den Dem 14, Lib All 14, Con 10, Enheds 9, Radikale 7, NB 6, Alt 6, DF 5, which is the same as the actual result except SD get one fewer and Venstre one more.  But if SD are assigned 50 and you run the largest remainder method on 125 seats Venstre only get 23, with the other parties unchanged, so they were indeed the ones who lost out.

Has this happened before?

[YL]

BTW if I use d'Hondt I get the Social Democrats deserving 50 (so no overhang) but Venstre and the Moderates each gaining one on the actual result, with Radikale and DF losing one each.

[Sestak]

So, wait - actually trying to form a pure red block government will require the pro-independence Greenland party for a one seat majority? Is that even remotely viable? Would have to assume there will be a lot of pressure for some type of Red-LLR agreement.

[JimJamUK]

Has anyone calculated the party mandate allocation by constituency yet?

[Logical]

Has anyone calculated the party mandate allocation by constituency yet?

Scroll down the Jyllands Posten page until you see a map by regions.
https://jyllands-posten.dk/politik/ECE14523670/her-er-resultaterne-fra-folketingsvalget-1-november-2022/

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1587598804861296642

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The People of Denmark have spoken: death to the Mink.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So does Frederiksen stay on as PM? She's probably my favorite European leader.

No, she won't...
She announced her retirement from office in order to enable the formation of a government that will enjoy broad support, thereby overcoming the left-right division of society.

[rosin]

So does Frederiksen stay on as PM? She's probably my favorite European leader.

No, she won't...
She announced her retirement from office in order to enable the formation of a government that will enjoy broad support, thereby overcoming the left-right division of society.

Well, she'll most likely (I'll give her 80-90%) be the next PM, but not with the current one-party government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

No, she won't...
She announced her retirement from office in order to enable the formation of a government that will enjoy broad support, thereby overcoming the left-right division of society.

Well, she'll most likely (I'll give her 80-90%) be the next PM, but not with the current one-party government.

What? According to German media, she intends to leave office. I've checked several sources.

[rosin]

No, she won't...
She announced her retirement from office in order to enable the formation of a government that will enjoy broad support, thereby overcoming the left-right division of society.

Well, she'll most likely (I'll give her 80-90%) be the next PM, but not with the current one-party government.

What? According to German media, she intends to leave office. I've checked several sources.

Depends on what you mean with 'leave office'. She'll step back from the current government to have another made - most likely still with her as PM. But of course we can't know exactly what's going to happen. The only slightly possible alternative - given the seat distribution of the election - would be a coalition across the center headed by Løkke, but I can't see why Frederiksen would accept that.