Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[JimJamUK]

I think i asked this when the crisis started but how have ø and SPP reacted to Ukraine?

SF have been fully pro-Ukraine, to the point they were one of the 5 original backers of the defence agreement which massively increased military spending. EL have been more equivocal, narrowly backing weapons to Ukraine but avoiding the more ‘imperialist’ stuff. They are party who got the most focus on random party bureaucrats and low level politicians saying questionable stuff, but given their far left (including outright Stalinist) lineage, they’ve been surprisingly mainstream.

[JimJamUK]

Why does Denmark have three from the outside completely indistinguishable anti-immigration right-wing parties now? Is there a class difference like between PVV and FvD in the Netherlands?

Assuming you’re referring to DF, DD, and NB, I wouldn’t consider them all indistinguishable. DF and DD are probably the most similar, being parties clearly profiled by their anti-immigration vibes along with feel good pro-welfare policies and a leader who is willing to compromise with the other right wing parties. Still, DF is probably a bit more genuinely left leaning while Støjberg officially has more moderate immigration policies (pro-economic migration and merely ‘reforming’ international conventions). NB is more clearly distinguishable, being a properly economically right wing party (albeit with a few populist policies thrown in) that would happily go to whatever lengths are needed to tackle what they would see as (Muslim) immigration problems. At this point, I would guess that NB have the least working class voter base, while DD will do best in Jutland, but it’s hard to give proper estimates as Danish pollsters rarely post voting intention by demographics and the polling has changed dramatically in the past few months.

[JimJamUK]

Jyllands-Posten has included the question in their electoral candidate test. They have shown that 18 Social Democratic candidates, including six MPs (one of them Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Rasmus Prehn), doesn't agree with the proposal. The same is true for eight Liberal candidates and seven Conservative candidates. Only the Conservative Birgitte Bergman is currently a MP, and among the others I think only Isabella Arendt (former Christian Democrat leader) and Liberal handball legend Erik Veje Rasmussen would have a shot of entering parliament. There aren't numbers for the other parties. I guess there could maybe be one or two from Liberal Alliance as well.

Funnily enough he clicked somewhat agree on the Rwanda question on the DR and Avisen tests. Goes to show how useful these tests are if even a government minister can’t agree with himself on them.

[JimJamUK]

How likely is it Red Bloc wins again as seem to have a small lead although not massive?  Is it possible Denmark sees government change like Sweden or does it look more secure.  Mette Frederiksen to consternation of some other left wing parties has been quite tough on immigration compared to Sweden so that might help there.

The polling average has the Red Bloc (such as it is) at a bit below 50%. For them to win a majority they very likely need The Alternative to make the 2% threshold/the Danish People’s Party to not. It’s hard to see Frederiksen getting chucked out, as the Blue Bloc has drifted down to the low-mid 40s with the balance made up by The Moderates (led by ex Venstre ex prime minister), who are all about a cross-bloc government which in practice will need to include the Social Democrats (most moderate Red Party and clearly the largest of all parties in Parliament), and will consequently also likely need to make Frederiksen prime minister (the Social Democrats have shown no interest in dumping her, and they’re obviously not going to back another party’s candidate). The Moderates could hypothetically end up doing a deal with the Blue Bloc, but that would be a very unwieldy majority with the sorts of parties that Lokke is going to the polls claiming need to be kept out of influence.

[JimJamUK]

I must admit without the three parties having 90 seat on their own, I don’t really see the benefit of B being part of the coalition for A or M.

Yeah, from the Social Democrats perspective it’s not like Radikale would be a counterweight on economics or immigration, while from any Blue party’s perspective they would be dragging the coalition too far to the left on value politics. If a cross-bloc government is formed then Radikale getting chucked seems a reasonable possibility.

[JimJamUK]

A look at the parties, and which candidates could be elected, and what could happen to the party leader.

Social Democrats seems like they will land very close to their 2019 result, although the trend has been slightly downwards in recent days after a great start to their campaign. With both DPP and Alternative likely to cross the treshold, a status quo result would still cost them around 2-3 seats. It will mostly be rather boring in terms of MPs elected, as most of the incumbents are running again and will be safely re-elected.

In Copenhagen, Ida Auken had a brilliant personal result in 2019 when she was elected for the Social Liberals, so if she can just half match that under her new colours, she will be safely elected and probably take the seat of Lars Aslan, one of the party's hard-liners on immigration. I think all ministers will be re-elected, but if anyone will be in trouble it will perhaps be Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Rasmus Prehn in Northern Jutland. In 2019 the party won 7 seats, and he was only elected as the 6th of them. He has been revealed to have a lavish expense account at the ministry with significant sums spend on dinners with undisclosed persons. Especially if one of their seats are lost in Northern Jutland, he could be out. It will be interesting to see whether there is a personal vote punishment for the most disliked minister, Trine Bramsen, and for the fall guy for the Mink Scandal, ex-Minister for Food and Agriculture and Fishery Mogens Jensen, but both of them should do enough to get elected anyway.

Auken’s vote seems like a wildcard. Will SD voters like a well known green voice or tire of a serial party-switcher in the least green Red party (probably the former, but not guaranteed)? Some news organisations have speculated that Jeppe Kofod may be in trouble in Zealand (comparisons to Anders Samuelsen), but despite having one of the smaller nomination districts he should get a large number of votes given his name recognition.  Rasmus Prehn looks in danger, but benefits from the fact fellow minister Ane Halsboe-Jorgensen was the one only elected thanks to a compensatory seat last time, and an Aalborg based MF is retiring and the nomination district will struggle to elect a new candidate in his place.

[JimJamUK]

Per the exit poll, the Social Democrats seem to have underperformed, with the Liberal Alliance and The Alternative doing better than expected.

[JimJamUK]

Independent Greens at 1.3% so not impossible for them to pass the threshold.

Depends whether they’ve picked up a generic left wing protest vote or whether they’ve posted a shockingly good result specifically in the ‘ghettos’, only the latter could possibly be concentrated enough to win a seat (and probably much closer to 2% needed).

[JimJamUK]

Social Democrats and Denmark Democrats both doing very well at the early tiny islands. Without knowing the islands very well, it's probably mostly populated by older voters. Those two parties tend do much better among older voters. Could really be a pattern for the Social Democrats that they progress among the elderly, but lose among young voters and most of the working age.

How expected would this be? They lose a bit to SF and gain a bit from RV which I would assume is demographically reasonably neutral. Are the losses to The Moderates particularly working age?

[JimJamUK]

Has anyone calculated the party mandate allocation by constituency yet?

[JimJamUK]

What kind of broad coalition would be on the table? Social Democrats+Moderates+Social Liberals are at 73 seats. Adding the Liberal Alliance, not sure if they are willing or even possible, the number rises to 87, adding the Conservatives, 97.

Absolutely not. A right wing libertarian party is completely at odds with the Social Democrats politics. Their last time in a right wing government was disastrous enough, supporting the Social Democrats would see them fall below the threshold. And anyways, LA had a great election and will be hoping to cement their position as a credible right wing party opposed to the Social Democratic led government.

[JimJamUK]

Forcing an election in which your party then lose more than half their seats is rarely a good career move.

Not helped by her forcing the election due to unhappiness with Mette Frederiksen’s leadership then immediately endorsing Frederiksen as prime minister candidate, as well as arguing for ultra social liberal policies while calling for right wing parties to enter government. Very much a case of ‘what did you think would happen?’.

[JimJamUK]

The Conservatives have left the negotiations fairly amicably, which leaves the continued inclusion of the Liberal Alliance even odder (they’re surely going to leave soon).