Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Diouf]

PM Mette Frederiksen has just called an election for the 1 November 2022. Frederiksen was forced to call an early general election by one of her support parties, the Social Liberals, after the Mink Commission published an extremely critical report of her government’s illegal mink cull. The Social Liberals stopped short of supporting the opposition’s demand of an independent lawyer review into whether there is a basis for an impeachment case against Frederiksen, but said the scandal proved the fatal consequences of the one-party government's self-willed style. Therefore, the party insisted on new elections and for a multi-party government to be formed as a result. Another potentially crucial centrist party, the Moderates led by former liberal PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen, insists that there must be such a review if the party is to support a Frederiksen-led government.

After a convincing Red Bloc victory in 2019 and a boost in support during the first months of covid, many saw a second Frederiksen term as inevitable. However, the red lead narrowed throughout 2021 and 2022 to a significant degree. And then in the summer of 2022, several factors in unison swung the polls further toward the right. The Mink Commission’s report was published, the former liberal Minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg started her new party the Denmark Democrats and the inflation and energy crisis caused voters to cross the political centre. This has meant polling where there is suddenly a significant possibility for a kingmaker role for the Moderates, and even a pure Blue Bloc victory is at least plausible.

Weighted average of polls according to politiologi.dk for Jyllands-Posten:

Parties preferring a Red Bloc government

Social Democrats 24.8% 45 seats
SPP 8.2% 15
Red-Green Alliance 7.7% 14
The Alternative 1.2% 0
Independent Greens 0.6% 0

Combined: 42.5% 74

Parties preferring a cross-centre government

Social Liberals 5.6% 10
Moderates 3.4% 6
Christian Democrats 0.7% 0

Combined: 9.7% 16

Parties preferring a Blue Bloc government

Conservatives 12.9% 23
Liberals 12.3% 22
Denmark Democrats 10.3% 19
New Right 5.6% 10
Liberal Alliance 4.1% 7
DPP 2.3% 4

Combined: 47.5% 85

Here are the threads on Danish politics and elections in recent years:

Danish Elections and Politics 2019-2022 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327629
Danish referendum on EU defence opt-out, 1 June 2022 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=485384
Danish Local and Regional Elections, 16 November 2021 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441663
Danish General Election, 5 June 2019 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315151
Danish General Election, 18 June 2015 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204244
Danish General Election, 15 September 2011 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140114

[Diouf]

In her speech calling the election Mette Frederiksen said that she aims to form a broad government with parties across the centre of politics. She of course already launched that idea back in June, but has until now stated that the first preference is a continuation of the current one-party government. However, she didn't make that additional comment this time, so one must understand that a broad government is now her first preference. The reactions to her message was much the same as back in June: rejection from the Blue parties, anger from the parties to her left, and cheering from the centrist parties.

The Social Liberals said they support Frederiksen as PM after the election, since she is the only one of the PM candidates open for a broad government. The party also starts to soften a bit on their demand of a centrist government. They now say that you can't force parties to enter a government, so if the blue parties keep rejecting a cross-centre government, they could instead enter into a government with the Social Democrats and SPP. Many have maybe expected them to end there anyway after the election, but perhaps a bit early to do that climbdown. The Moderates are already claiming it shows they are the only true centrist party.

The Blue parties held a common meeting to start off the campaign, and have focused on talking up their wishes of a government based on a Blue majority.
https://twitter.com/JakobEllemann/status/1577607460571041793

[Diouf]

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

If the six Blue parties get a majority, the government will include Liberals + Conservatives + probably Denmark Democrats.

The Moderates shouldn't be counted in the Blue Bloc. Their whole raison d'être is building a government across the centre, and keeping out the wings. So a Blue Bloc with the Moderates, would be one without New Right, DPP and likely Denmark Democrats. Løkke today said he sees Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance as potential government parties.

[Diouf]

Three polls today from Megafon, Epinion and Gallup. They mostly show the same movements with Social Democrats and Moderates gaining, Social Liberals and Conservatives declining, and DPP all the way down around 2%.

[Diouf]

Truly surreal that this might actually be the end for DF. End of an era for sure.

Some questions:

1. Do our Danish posters expect DF to be in or out in the end?
2. Who governs if the Red Bloc win -  I read everything about Frederiksen's supposed preference, but in the end isn't it going to be ABF anyway? In what direction will immigration policy then move?
3. Who votes M? Rich people in northern Copenhagen suburbs/exurbs who previously voted V/C/B?
4. If Æ (do people actually abbreviate this as DD too?) are the biggest in the Blue Bloc, which isn't completely impossible at all looking at the polls, will V/C/I allow Støjberg to become PM?

1. I don't have much clue either way. The unweighted average of the four pollsters who have released polls so far is 1.9%, so basically as much on edge as it can be. I would think it should be an advantage that they still have quite big name candidates compared to their small size, Messerschmidt himself, Pia Kjærsgaard and Rene Christensen, plus a fair few others with experience as MP and/or long-time councillors. Maybe a bit of a personal vote could still help them. I actually think Messerschmidt has done quite well in recent days, and with a lot of energy. But maybe people have just turned off the party. There has been little talk of Blue voters lending them votes, and with the Blue Bloc fading in polls, it seems less likely that people would consider it.

2. Well with a majority for the normal Red Bloc, yeah I wouldn't exactly be shocked if after some drawn-out negotiations, the Social Democrats say that "Well, since none of the Blue parties want to work with us, I guess we do have to form a government within this majority". And then yes, it would likely be with SPP and Social Liberals.

3. In terms of party choice, DR/Epinion says 48% are former Liberal voters, 14% former Social Liberals, 9% former Social Democrats and 8% former Conservatives. I haven't seen much analysis of their voter's demographics yet, and with the recent gains it might change again. They would probably be more likely to gain a former Liberal voter in Copenhagen and Northern Zealand than in Northern and Western Jutland, but the share of former Liberal voters is a lot bigger in the two latter. So currently, my guess would be that the party would be among those parties with the lowest relative standard deviation when looking at the %-shares in the ten multimember constituencies. The main message of cooperation across the centre, responsible politics etc. strikes me as one that is much less geographically concentrated, than messages about the top tax, immigration etc. Klaus Riskær Pedersen in 2019 ran on much the same message, and his party was the one with the lowest relative standard deviation across the ten constituencies. In the one regional poll, I have seen so far, which is from Northern Jutland, the Moderates look like getting 4%, which at the time was just slightly above what Gallup had them on nationally.

4. No. Liberal Alliance will definitively be against, and might even try to block her just becoming minister. And the two others wouldn't accept it either. Liberals have actually said so far that the leader of the biggest Blue party should get to lead the government (as they believe a bigger chance of that happening than a majority of Blue seats backing them), but they would walk that back if Denmark Democrats became the biggest party.

[Diouf]

Pape in more trouble as it has been revealed he called Greenland "Africa on ice" in a meeting with American diplomats. Something which he has had to apologize for now.

The Liberal Alliance now seems to be okay with Denmark Democrats in government. Previously their MP Ole Birk Olesen said that Støjberg had to show deep regrets in terms of the case, if they were to consider accepting her as minister again. Party leader Alex Vanopslagh now says that "As things are now, no we won't block her from becoming minister again".

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Today, the parties could start putting up election posters. The big parties have been out in public for many weeks with ads on bus stops, busses, walls etc., but now the myriad of posters signal that the campaign has started for real.

[Diouf]

Megafon's newest poll for TV2 has Conservatives falling to 10.5%, now only 0.4% ahead of Denmark Democrats. Liberal Alliance could likely be one of the beneficiaries; they are now up at 5.2%. Moderates continue to gain and reach 6.5%, which would give them 12 seats. 83 for the current Red Bloc and 80 for the Blue Bloc.

[Diouf]

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Do the Faroe and Greenland parties typically join governments?

No, never.

[Diouf]

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

If the six Blue parties get a majority, the government will include Liberals + Conservatives + probably Denmark Democrats.

The Moderates shouldn't be counted in the Blue Bloc. Their whole raison d'être is building a government across the centre, and keeping out the wings. So a Blue Bloc with the Moderates, would be one without New Right, DPP and likely Denmark Democrats. Løkke today said he sees Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance as potential government parties.

Do you think there's any interest from Venstre or the Conservatives in such a government?  If not, what happens if the Moderates do end up holding the balance of power?

They are rejecting it clearly now. With so much competition about the Blue voters, they are afraid that any concession towards the Social Democrats and Mette Frederiksen will cause them to haemorrhage voters to their nearest competitors. Then, as Løkke says as well, the interesting thing is what they will say after the election. The Moderates have promised gridlock until we have a cross-bloc government. For both Løkke and Liberals + Conservatives, it will be easier to back a Social Democrat-led government if it's not led by Frederiksen, but that isn't exactly a concession the Social Democrats will make on the first day of negotiations, if ever.

[Diouf]

Today, the former leader of the Defence Intelligence Service published a book about the scandal in the defence intelligence service. In the book, he sharply criticizes then Minister of Defence Trine Bramsen who told him about his suspension in August 2020, and writes that she defended the decision to him by arguing that she needed "to be able to count to 90", i.e. keep the support of the government's support parties. Findsen also describes how he had several clashes with Barbara Bertelsen, the head of the Prime Minister's department, when she was head of the department at the Ministry of Justice. Findsen also says the decision to suspend him was made in the Prime Ministry. Findsen and a friend of his had talked about how Trine Bramsen is "thick as two short planks" when he was surveilled, and that the friend was later interrogated about this criticism of the government. Finally, Findsen explains how the head of the Defence Intelligence Service's legal division told him that his case would be looked on more mildly if he made some concession of guilt and revealed who in the service was a source for the media. An offer which would be illegal under Danish law. And Findsen states he doesn't know who in the service were sources for the media.

So just as the Mink Scandal was perhaps getting a bit stale to hear about for some swing voters, there is renewed focus and allegations about another scandal, which also points back towards Mette Frederiksen and Barbara Bertelsen in the Prime Ministry. If the media pursue this story further in the coming weeks, it could halt the Social Democrats' great start to the campaign.

[Diouf]

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Do the Faroe and Greenland parties typically join governments?

No, never.

It'd be interesting if a Government had to lean on them for a majority. Red bloc plus S and IA from Greenland for example.

It wouldn't be unusual. Usually, there isn't much drama, as the North Atlantic MPs tend to stay out of the pre-dominantly Danish issues, and just vote with their Danish sister party. Only in a few foreign policy/North Atlantic issues could it become relevant, and in these issues there are usually big cross-centre majorities anyway.

[Diouf]

The current weighted average from politologi.dk for Jyllands-Posten. The difference since the start of the campaign is shown. So overall, clearly a shift towards the left, mostly driven by the Social Democrats booming. So whereas the campaign started with a situation where polls would often show a Blue Bloc majority or the Moderates as kingmaker, we now mostly see polls with a Red Bloc majority or the Moderates as kingmaker. Especially as some polls show the Alternative just above the threshold.
In the centre, the Moderates are booming while the Social Liberals are falling, and we now start to see more polls with the Moderates bigger than the Social Liberals. On the right, the Conservatives have fallen hard, while the New Right dip has received less attention. Minor gains for Liberals and Liberal Alliance.

Social Democrats 27.1% (+2.3%) 49 seats (+4)
SPP 8.3% (+0.1%) 15 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 7.2% (-0.5%) 13 (-1)
The Alternative 1.4% (+0.2) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.6% (=) 0 (=)

Social Liberals 4.7% (-0.9%) 9 (-1)
Moderates 4.3% (+0.9) 8 (+2)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (-0.2%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 10.9% (-2.0%) 20 (-3)
Liberals 12.6% (+0.3%) 23 (+1)
Denmark Democrats 10.1% (-0.2%) 18 (-1)
New Right 4.4% (-1.2%) 8 (-2)
Liberal Alliance 4.5% (+0.4%) 8 (+1)
DPP 2.4% (+0.1%) 4 (=)

[Diouf]

After all the Blue parties + Social Liberals and Moderates demanded a investigative commission be established to look at the scandal in the defence intelligence service, the Social Democrats quickly realized it might at as well bend to that demand sooner rather than later. So they have said they will support setting down such a commission. However, they want to wait until the trial against Lars Findsen has been concluded, which means it could be several years, so there's no immediate danger for Frederiksen or Bramsen. Social Liberals and Moderates support waiting, so it looks like that's where it will end.

The possibility of a Danish asylum processing center in Rwanda continues to rumble in the relationship between the Social Democrats and its current support parties. On the front page of today's Politiken, the headline was "The Red-Green Alliance can live with Rwanda deal" and the Red-Green spokesperson on immigration, Rosa Lund, said "I can't rule out that we will keep supporting a government, which will do this". The party has reacted strongly against the heading, but the wording in their statements is still not really a total rejection. Mai Villadsen says "We will demand a human right and convention guarantee" if it's to support a new government, and they think this will block the Rwanda solution. If it happens anyway "it would cause a serious crisis between the Red-Green Alliance and the government, which could very well cause the government's fall". The Social Liberals have been clearer in saying they cannot support a governmenet carrying through the Rwanda plan, and the Moderates are very skeptical. In reality, it would of course be very surprising if the plan could  ever become reality due to the massive opposition from lawyers, NGOs, journalists, international organizations etc.

The six Blue bloc leaders have made a video with their common wish for a new Blue government. The six statements the leaders make are. Liberals: "Do you wish for a country where it pays to work instead of being stuck in a benefit system?", DPP: "Where we take much better care of our elderly, and treat them with the respect they deserve", New Right: "Where we keep those people out who don't share our values, and are welcoming to those who do", Liberal Alliance: "Where we finally can put an end to the pointless bureaucracy in the public sector, so there's more time for the meaningful tasks", Denmark Democrats: "Where we take care to ensure that the distance between rural and urban areas will not grow too big, so we can't recognize each other", Conservatives: "Where we do not begrudge people being successful, and don't punish proud families who have build up things through generations". https://www.facebook.com/IngerStojberg/videos/640842274243103/

[Diouf]

After a day of coverage around the Red-Green Rwanda rub, the party have now decided to move to the same place as the Social Liberals. Mai Villadsen writes on Twitter: "If a government puts a refugee on a plane to Rwanda, the Red-Green Alliance will withdraw its support for that government".

[Diouf]

Epinion for DR and Altinget has polled the preferred PM candidate, as well as the approval ratings of the four most likely PM candidates. The PM poll includes all party leaders, so partly it's just a reflection of party choice. Although notable that Løkke is now ahead of all Blue bloc leaders. Also an impressive approval rating.

Approval ratings
+16% Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Moderates) 48% approve, 32% disapprove, 20% don't know.
+04% Mette Frederiksen (Social Democrats) 45% approve, 41% disapprove, 14% don't know
-07% Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (Liberals) 37% approve, 44% disapprove, 19% don't know
-15% Søren Pape (Conservatives) 32% approve, 47% disapprove, 22% don't know

Preferred PM
Mette Frederiksen (Social Democrats) 24%
Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Moderates) 11%
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (Liberals) 10%
Inger Støjberg (Denmark Democrats) 8%
Søren Pape (Conservatives) 6%
Alex Vanopslagh (Liberal Alliance) 6%
Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) 5%
Mai Villadsen (Red-Green Alliance) 3%
Pernille Vermund (New Right) 2%
Sofie Carsten Nielsen (Social Liberals) 1%
Morten Messerschmidt (DPP) 1%
Sikandar Siddique (Independent Greens) 1%
Franciska Rosenkilde (Alternative) 1%
Marianne Karlsmose (Christian Democrats) 0%
Others 2%
Don't know 20%

[Diouf]

Do all the Blue party leaders support the Rwanda plan?

Yes. The six ones who look like entering parliament. Christian Democrats are against, and again it's a question of where you want to place them.
Jyllands-Posten has included the question in their electoral candidate test. They have shown that 18 Social Democratic candidates, including six MPs (one of them Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Rasmus Prehn), doesn't agree with the proposal. The same is true for eight Liberal candidates and seven Conservative candidates. Only the Conservative Birgitte Bergman is currently a MP, and among the others I think only Isabella Arendt (former Christian Democrat leader) and Liberal handball legend Erik Veje Rasmussen would have a shot of entering parliament. There aren't numbers for the other parties. I guess there could maybe be one or two from Liberal Alliance as well.

[Diouf]

We had the last PM debate last night. This time the three candidates were largely split up, so they debates twice at a time. It was a much more dry debate than TV2's almost gameshowy one the other night. From what I can see, there seems to be mostly talk about Ellemann winning again, although perhaps not as clearly. Before the debate, there was even talk that it made more sense for Løkke to take part than Pape since it seems more likely that ex-PM could return to that role than the Conservative leader turning the tide.

In the politiologi.dk weighted average for Jyllands-Posten, the Moderates are now all the way up to 6.0% and 11 seats. Denmark Democrats has started to slip a bit, with New Right and DPP strengthening compared to the previous poll. So perhaps those voters who wants the strongest possible immigration policy are finding out that she is more moderate compared to the two. It's looking likely that the Alternative will cross the threshold, and one should think there are more than enough kind voters in Red-Green Alliance or SPP willing to lend them a vote to secure their entrance into parliament. Change compared to the campaign start.


Social Democrats 26.8% (+2.0%) 48 seats (+3)
SPP 8.3% (+0.1%) 15 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 6.9% (-0.8%) 13 (-1)
The Alternative 1.6% (+0.4%) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.6% (=) 0 (=)

Social Liberals 4.6% (-1.0%) 8 (-2)
Moderates 6.0% (+2.6%) 11 (+5)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (-0.2%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 9.7% (-3.2%) 18 (-5)
Liberals 13.0% (+0.7%) 23 (+1)
Denmark Democrats 8.9% (-1.4%) 16 (-3)
New Right 5.0% (-0.6%) 9 (-1)
Liberal Alliance 5.0% (+0.9%) 9 (+2)
DPP 2.7% (+0.4%) 5 (+1)

[Diouf]

3. Who votes M? Rich people in northern Copenhagen suburbs/exurbs who previously voted V/C/B?

Epinion has provided some numbers about Moderate voters. They compare Moderate voters from the current Red Bloc parties, with the other Moderate voters and with all other voters. These are 14% of their voters coming from Social Liberals, 11% from Social Democrats + tiny percentages coming from SPP, Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative.

Of those coming from Red Bloc parties, 46% live in the capital region vs. 31% of other Moderate voters and 31% of all other voters.
Of those coming from Red Bloc parties, 28% are men aged 18-34 vs 13% of other Moderate voters and 13% of all other voters.
Of those coming from Red Bloc parties, 34% have a five year uni education vs. 15% of other Moderate voters and 14% of all other voters
Of those coming from Red Bloc parties, 38% prefer Mette Frederiksen as PM vs. 13% of other Moderate voters and 44% of all other voters.

So overall, most Moderate voters are, as expected, very much like the national average. But the 29% coming from Red Bloc parties are younger, higher educated and more likely to live in the Capital Region.

https://twitter.com/ThorkilKlint/status/1582090518666051584

[Diouf]

The Danish Electoral system

179 MPs will be elected through a system of proportional representation.
175 of those MPs are elected in Denmark, while two each are elected in Greenland and the Faroe Islands.

Greenland and Faroe Islands
The electoral system for the North Atlantic seats is very easy. It's d'Hondt's method with 1, 2 divisors and open lists. So normally the two biggest parties each win a seat. If the biggest party is more than twice the size of the second-largest party, it will win both seats. The party's candidate with the highest amount of personal votes get the seat.

Denmark
In mainland Denmark, it's a bit more complicated.
The 175 seats are divided into 135 contituency seats and 40 compensatory seats.

-Constituency seats
The 135 constituency seats are distributed among ten multimember constituencies. The distribution is calculated every five years, last time in 2020. So the distribution has changed slightly since the last general election in 2019.

17 (+1) Copenhagen
11 (=) Copenhagen Environs
10 (=) Northern Zealand
02 (=) Bornholm
20 (=) Zealand
12 (=) Funen
17 (-1) Southern Jutland
18 (=) Eastern Jutland
13 (=) Western Jutland
15 (=) Northern Jutland

In each constituency the seats are distributed between parties and independents (only once in modern time has one been elected) via the d'Hondt system with standard divisors (1, 2, 3 etc.)

-Compensatory seats
Since the constituency seats will tend to favor the biggest parties, there are 40 compensatory seats to ensure the parties each get their deserved share of the seats.
A party is eligible to receive compensatory seats if it fulfil at least one of three demands.
- Win a constituency seat
- Get at least 2% of the nationwide vote
- Reach the constituency seat quota in two of the three electoral regions.

The first two should be easy to get, while the third one is a bit more tricky (and rarely comes into play). The three electoral regions each consist of three or four constituencies. The Capital Region consists of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Environs, Northern Zealand and Bornholm. The Zealand - South Denmark Region consists of Zealand, Funen and Southern Jutland, while the Mid- and North Jutland Region consists of Eastern Jutland, Western Jutland and Northern Jutland. The quota is the combined number of valid votes in an electoral region divided by the number of constituency seats. This last time gave quotas between 25.000-27.000 in each electoral region. Due to the Danish electoral geography, the most likely scenario where this rule is to be used is if a party is weaker in the Capital Region than in the two others. One would think that the e.g. Denmark Democrats might pass this threshold at 1.8-1.9% nationwide.

Once we know which parties are eligible for compensatory seats, there is a calculation of all those parties' deserved seat number nationally based on the largest reminder method. Each party's number of compensatory seats will then be the number of deserved seats minus its constituency seats. It should be noted that it's possible to get überhangmandaten, although this is a rare occurence. But if a party's number of constituency seats is higher than its deserved number of seats nationwide, it gets to keep all its constituency seats. Then the party and its seats are withdrawn from the calculation, and a new deserved number of seats nationwide is calculated for all the other parties. There is a chance that überhangmandate could come into play this time. The Social Democrats are much bigger than all other parties without being a really big party. So there is a chance the governing party could end up with more constituency seats than its deserved share. I run a file calculating the seat distribution, and at one point in this campaign the Social Democrats were at a deserved share of 50 seats nationwide while winning 50 constituency seats and very close to a few additional ones. So it's an option to watch. In the newest run, they are at 49 deserved seats and 48 constituency seats, i.e. getting one compensatory seat.

- Regional distribution of compensatory seats
In order to figure out in which constituency a party will get its compensatory seats, a two-string process is used. First the compensatory seats are distributed among parties in electoral regions. The number of compensatory seats in each region has been re-calculated as well, but the numbers are the same as in 2019.
11 (=) Capital Region
15 (=) Zealand - South Denmark
14 (=) Central - Northern Jutland

The seats are distributed betwen parties in electoral regions via the Saint Lague Method with 1, 3, 5 etc. divisors. Afterwards the seats in each electoral region is divided among the constituencies in each region via the Saint Lague Method with 1, 4, 7 etc. divisors. Therefore we don't know exactly how many seats each constituency will end up with. We know their number of constituency seats, but the number of compensatory seats is only fixed at the regional level, not the constituency level.

- Distribution of seats among candidates
When voters go the ballot, they can choose to just simply vote for their preferred party, or they can vote personally for their preferred candidate, either from a party or an independent. However, the parties have different ways of distributing the seats among their candidates.
The major choice is between semi-closed lists and open lists. With semi-closed lists, the party indicates the order in which the candidates are elected in a constituency. A lowly-ranked candidate can 'break the list' by gaining enough personal votes to reach the Droop quota and leapfrog higher-ranked candidates. However, this hasn't happened in 30 years. And now it's mainly the Red-Green Alliance which uses this system, and their well-known candidates have always been at the top of the lists anyway. For parties which use open lists, it's basically the candidates with the most personal support who get elected. This is the system most other parties use.

However, the parties choosing open lists have to decide whether party list votes should be distributed among candidates or not. Each constituency is divided into a number of districts. If a party decides that list votes should be distributed, then this distribution happens proportionally in each district. So if a candidate in the Funen constituency received 50% of the personal votes in the Nyborg district, that candidate will then get 50% of the list votes there as well. But if the same candidate only gets 2% of the personal votes in Odense West, the candidate will only get 2% of the list votes from there. So basically if a party decides that list votes should be distributed among candidates, it slightly favours those candidates who campaign throughout a constituency so that they can pick up personal votes and thereby list votes all over the constituency. Whereas if a party discards list votes when electing its MPs, it will slightly favour those candidates who focus on a certain part of the constituency and maximize their personal vote number there.

In a few days, we will see which system the parties have decided to use. We basically know how all the established parties will run, so it will mostly be interesting to see what the new parties do. In 2019, both Klaus Riskær Pedersen and Hard Line ran semi-closed lists in some constituencies and open lists in others.

[Diouf]

This morning's Voxmeter poll for Ritzau has Moderates all the way up at 9.2% and 17 seats as the third largest party. Voxmeter, which has had a somewhat negative house effect for the Blue parties, has them all the way down at 41.8% and 71 seats with DPP below the threshold. Suggesting that Løkke is eating a lot from the Blue parties.

https://twitter.com/SorenStorm76/status/1582601435572830208?t=rnHtU2gGoXThlMZrel...

[Diouf]

Both Gallup and YouGov has also published polls with a similar picture. Moderates booming to 7.3% and 7.9% respectively, and the Blue Bloc parties falling. Both the Social Democrats and the Liberals and Conservatives have started attacking Løkke with some of their heavier names, although not party leaders. Mostly, they are attacking him for not committing to a side, as Løkke continues his refrain of looking for "something, not someone". The Blue parties try to scare potential voters by portraying him as a likely supporter of a Mette Frederiksen government, while the Social Democrats also attack the Blue economic and taxation policy.

While the six Blue bloc parties have done a lot to try to show a common alternative to Mette Frederiksen with several common press conferences and videoes, I wonder if either Liberals or Conservatives will try to ditch that and open up for a broad government before election day. The obvious danger is that the other Blue parties can attack you as facilitating a Frederiksen government, and steal voters by being True Blue. However, the Blue Bloc government alternative is basically dead if polls are even remotely accurate. So it looks like if any of the two parties are to be part of a government, it will be in a broad government. So if they want ministerial posts, they have to cut off the right-wing parties sooner or later and live with the criticism from them. By opening up for a centrist government, they could hope to take the wind out of the Moderate sails a bit, and lure back some centre-right voters. Also if they consider doing this after an election anyway, it might help avoid a backlash by conceding this possibility before election day. Also it will help them with the rhetorical difficulty, they are in when responding to the Social Democrats. One on hand, they attack the one-party government for being self-willed, but also rejecting to go into cooperation with them. If they say they are open to a broad government, they can bind the Social Democrats to a broad government, even if there should be a majority for the current Red Bloc.

So it could make sense for one/both of them to open for a broad government. They probably have to be quite clear that they can't trust Frederiksen to lead it due to the mink scandal, defence intelligence scandal etc. I'm not sure whether they would have to point directly towards Løkke, another Social Democrat or just leave it open.
Policy-wise, it would probably be easier for the Liberals to make this opening as they are mostly closer to the Social Democrats on the broad economic policies. Also, frankly the coverage of such a concession might be covered a bit difficulty. If the Conservatives do it, it could easily be portrayed as "Pape in panic" after a month of horror, while the Liberals might be cheered on more and Ellemann praised as doing the "only responsible thing".

It's just speculation so far, but it must be something they at least consider. Maybe to some degree, the two parties has for most of this term not really believed in the chance of getting into government already after this election. So if that has been their mindset, then perhaps they won't feel pressured into doing anything to increase their chances of joining a government. Then it would maybe be preferable to see Frederiksen and Løkke trying to figure something out, and hope for a spectacular Moderate collapse with Blue voters coming home to them. Instead of joining a government after a quite weak result, and fear to see even more voters leave rightwards to the free right wing opposition.

[Diouf]

Epinion for DR has published a poll for all multimember constituencies, except Bornholm. I made my own calculation for Bornholm (based on a Jysk Analyse constituency poll a few weeks ago + adjusting for recent trends). I have run the entire seat calculation for both constituency + compensatory seats. So the seat number for each constituency is the total number of seats. Change is compared to 2019.

Copenhagen
Social Democrats 19.3% (+2.1%) 4 seats (+1)
SPP 9.9% (-1.6%) 2 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 16.4% (-0.4%) 4 (=)
The Alternative 3.5% (-3.0%) 0 (-1)
Independent Greens 0.8% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 8.0% (-8.4%) 1 (-2)
Moderates 10.6% (new) 3 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.2% (-0.5%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 6.7% (+1.4%) 1 (=)
Liberals 8.7% (-6.3%) 2 (-1)
Denmark Democrats 3.8% (new) 1 (new)
New Right 2.3% (+0.9%) 0 (=)
Liberal Alliance 7.6% (+5.0%) 2 (+1)
DPP 1.9% (-2.3%) 1 (=)

Copenhagen Environs
Social Democrats 27.7% (+1.9%) 4 seats (=)
SPP 8.9% (-0.5%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 5.9% (-1.3%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 0.6% (-2.5%) 0 (-1)
Independent Greens 2.0% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 4.9% (-6.0%) 1 (-1)
Moderates 8.6% (new) 1 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.2% (-0.7%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 10.3% (+0.9%) 2 (+1)
Liberals 8.7% (-8.5%) 1 (-2)
Denmark Democrats 6.8% (new) 1 (new)
New Right 4.6% (+2.3%) 1 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 8.6% (+6.0%) 1 (+1)
DPP 2.1% (-6.1%) 0 (-1)

Northern Zealand
Social Democrats 22.7% (+1.4%) 3 seats (=)
SPP 5.8% (-1.1%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 6.9% (+1.3%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 2.1% (-0.6%) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.9% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 5.3% (-5.9%) 1 (-1)
Moderates 11.7% (new) 2 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.9% (-0.2%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 8.4% (-2.8%) 1 (-1)
Liberals 14.4% (-9.0%) 2 (-1)
Denmark Democrats 5.1% (new) 1 (new)
New Right 4.3% (+1.0%) 1 (=)
Liberal Alliance 9.0% (+5.7%) 1 (+1)
DPP 2.5% (-5.0%) 0 (-1)

Bornholm
Social Democrats 34.5% (-0.5%) 1 seats (=)
SPP 5.0% (+0.7%) 0 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 7.5% (-0.6%) 0 (=)
The Alternative 1.7% (-1.6%) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.1% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 1.4% (-1.9%) 0 (=)
Moderates 3.7% (new) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 3.2% (-0.9%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 4.4% (+2.6%) 0 (=)
Liberals 21.1% (-4.2%) 1 (=)
Denmark Democrats 5.5% (new) 0 (new)
New Right 2.5% (+0.8%) 0 (=)
Liberal Alliance 4.0% (+3.0%) 0 (=)
DPP 5.1% (-5.3%) 0 (=)

Zealand
Social Democrats 27.6% (-0.6%) 7 seats (-1)
SPP 8.8% (=) 2 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 5.8% (+0.6%) 2 (=)
The Alternative 0.7% (-1.3%) 0 (-1)
Independent Greens 0.4% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 3.2% (-2.6%) 1 (-1)
Moderates 8.2% (new) 2 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (+0.3%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 6.1% (+0.3%) 2 (=)
Liberals 13.2% (-11.1%) 3 (-4)
Denmark Democrats 9.6% (new) 2 (new)
New Right 5.4% (+2.8%) 1 (=)
Liberal Alliance 6.5% (+4.7%) 2 (+2)
DPP 3.8% (-7.1%) 1 (-2)

Funen
Social Democrats 29.0% (-1.2%) 5 seats (=)
SPP 8.6% (+1.9%) 2 (+1)
Red-Green Alliance 8.3% (+1.5%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 2.2% (-0.8%) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.1% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 3.4% (-3.9%) 0 (-1)
Moderates 8.8% (new) 1 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.3% (-0.8%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 6.7% (+0.5%) 1 (=)
Liberals 10.5% (-13.4%) 2 (-2)
Denmark Democrats 9.3% (new) 2 (new)
New Right 3.4% (+1.5%) 1 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 6.6% (+4.7%) 1 (+1)
DPP 2.8% (-6.1%) 0 (-2)

Southern Jutland
Social Democrats 26.0% (-0.1%) 6 seats (=)
SPP 4.5% (-0.7%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 3.3% (-0.8%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 1.3% (-0.3%) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.1% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 2.6% (-3.3%) 1 (=)
Moderates 9.0% (new) 2 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.9% (-1.3%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 7.3% (+2.3%) 2 (+1)
Liberals 17.3% (-11.2%) 4 (-2)
Denmark Democrats 9.6% (new) 2 (new)
New Right 6.5% (+2.4%) 2 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 7.4% (+5.3%) 1 (=)
DPP 4.0% (-8.5%) 1 (-2)

Eastern Jutland
Social Democrats 23.4% (-2.4%) 6 seats (-1)
SPP 8.3% (+0.1%) 2 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 6.6% (-0.5%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 2.2% (-1.2%) 0 (-1)
Independent Greens 0.9% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 3.6% (-6.3%) 1 (-2)
Moderates 7.5% (new) 2 (new)
Christian Democrats 1.4% (-0.7%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 8.3% (+2.5%) 2 (+1)
Liberals 15.4% (-7.2%) 3 (-3)
Denmark Democrats 9.2% (new) 2 (new)
New Right 2.8% (+0.8%) 1 (=)
Liberal Alliance 8.2% (+5.3%) 2 (+1)
DPP 2.1% (-5.7%) 1 (-1)

Western Jutland
Social Democrats 22.3% (-2.3%) 4 seats (=)
SPP 5.5% (-0.7%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 2.6% (-0.8%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 0.7% (-1.0%) 0 (=)
Independent Greens 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 3.0% (-2.3%) 1 (=)
Moderates 4.8% (new) 1 (new)
Christian Democrats 2.1% (-3.2%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 7.0% (-2.2%) 1 (-1)
Liberals 22.0% (-7.8%) 4 (-1)
Denmark Democrats 15.6% (new) 3 (new)
New Right 3.8% (+2.1%) 0 (=)
Liberal Alliance 8.4% (+6.2%) 2 (+1)
DPP 2.2% (-6.2%) 1 (=)

Northern Jutland
Social Democrats 31.2% (-2.7%) 6 seats (-1)
SPP 5.6% (+0.2%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 6.3% (+2.0%) 1 (=)
The Alternative 1.3% (-0.7%) 0 (-1)
Independent Greens 0.7% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 3.6% (-1.5%) 1 (=)
Moderates 6.2% (new) 1 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.0% (-1.6%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 5.4% (+0.5%) 1 (=)
Liberals 14.6% (-12.2%) 3 (-2)
Denmark Democrats 13.2% (new) 2 (new)
New Right 4.9% (+2.9%) 1 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 5.2% (+3.3%) 1 (+1)
DPP 1.7% (-7.7%) 0 (-2)

Combined result
Social Democrats 25.4% (-0.5%) 46 seats (-2)
SPP 7.4% (-0.3%) 13 (-1)
Red-Green Alliance 7.1% (+0.2%) 13 (=)
The Alternative 1.7% (-1.3%) 0 (-5)
Independent Greens 0.6% (new) 0 (new)

Social Liberals 4.1% (-4.2%) 8 (-8)
Moderates 8.3% (new) 15 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.7% (-1.0%) 0 (=)

Conservatives 7.2% (+0.6%) 13 (+1)
Liberals 13.9% (-9.5%) 25 (-18)
Denmark Democrats 9.1% (new) 16 (new)
New Right 4.2% (+1.8%) 8 (+4)
Liberal Alliance 7.4% (+5.1%) 13 (+9)
DPP 2.6% (-6.1%) 5 (-11)

So the combined result differs from the average mostly on these parties:
Social Democrats a fair bit lower, Conservatives + SPP lower
Liberal Alliance + Denmark Democrats a fair bit higher.
So combined with DPP above the threshold + Alternative below it (which is currently in line with the average), this means its 80-80 between the traditional blocs and then 15 Moderate seats in the middle. Most polls currently of course show a fair lead for the Red bloc compared to the Blue Bloc, but mostly still with Moderates as decisive. So one can mentally turn down/up these respective parties, when looking at constituency results.

[Diouf]

While it has been mathematically obvious throughout, Løkke has now said directly that the Social Democrats need to be in a broad government.
In an interview with Zetland, he says "I've reached the conclusion that we need to include the Social Democrats. But the Social Democrats caught up with the left wing can't deliver what's needed. So we need to force a stable, political cooperation across the centre. You have to commit the Social Democrats to a government, because the Social Democrats in opposition have an inclination to be less willing to make difficult decisions. Which is different from the Blue parties who are willing to cooperate in opposition, partly due to the competition between them and partly due to the pressure from industry and business.". He does then say that a government including the Social Democrats is the aim, and that there could then be a reality where "one must live with less". But the interview has been framed around the first part of them needing to be involved. And again it's basically impossible to get the math to work otherwise, unless the Social Democrats wanted to be support party which is unlikely.

He is asked about a potential Social Democrat - Social Liberal - Moderate - SPP majority. He says he can't see that happening, because he can't see the require positive programme for change being a result of that construction. So his clear preference is for the Liberals and/or Conservatives to join. He says it doesn't have to be in a common government, they could be support parties, but he thinks the former option is way more likely.
Polls continue to see them booming. Today's Epinion for DR national poll has them all the way up at 9.8% and 18 seats.

Berlingske has revealed that Christian Democrat leader Marianne Karlsmose internally said she would leave the party leadership back in the spring due to the party's liberalisation of it's abortion policies. Shortly after MP Jens Rohde announced he wasn't running again, and party leader Isabella Arendt left the party to join the Conservatives.

Liberal Alliance's party leader Alex Vanopslagh's case of illegally getting a parliamentary apartment continues to rumble a bit, but doesn't seem to have hurt their campaign in any way yet. His former adviser revealed to BT that back in the spring of 2020, she warned him that it could create a bad media story and the whole thing looked like humbug. Vanopslagh has ditched his parliamentary apartment and paid back 30.000 kr, but has so far said it was because he didn't study the rules properly.

SPP, Alternative, Red-Green Alliance and Social Liberals have made a common demand for a new government. A new nature law which forces 30% of the Danish territory, both sea and land, should be protected nature by 2030. 10% should be strongly protected.

Greenlandic MP Aaja Chemnitz from IA, who is normally affiliated with SPP, has said she would consider pointing towards Løkke, or at least a government he is a part of: "I know Lars Løkke from his time as PM, where we experienced a PM who was more responsive and accessible for Greenland than Mette Frederiksen has been. So we are keeping our options open".
The Faroese Republic party, who could be in play for the second seat in Faroe Islands, has also said it's keeping it's option open and would support the PM doing the most for Faroe Islands. The other potential North Atlantic seats sound more fixed. Siumut in Greenland + Faroese Social Democratic will support the Social Democrats, and the People's Party + Union Party in Faroe Island will support the Blue parties.

[Diouf]

Which of Venstre or the Conservatives do you think would be more likely to support this hypothetical "broad government", or would they only support it together?

Politically, it would probably make the most sense for the Liberals as they are closer to the Social Democrats on most of the economy and welfare questions. Conservatives published a quite right wing economic platform before the campaign started, and has been attacked severely by the Social Democrats for this. On climate, the Conservatives are perhaps closer to the red parties and less tied to the agricultural communities. The argument in favour of Conservatives doing it should probably be personel. Søren Pape has been leader since 2014, and after this horrible campaign, it seems likely that he would very quickly be pushed into irrelevance. If he can convince the party to join a government and get a minister post, he can stay relevant for longer, even if the party leadership might still have to change. But I'm not sure he can. Ellemann has only led the party since 2019 and a huge defeat has to some extent been baked in, so maybe he would be less desperate for job.

But again much depends on the thinking in the parties and too what extent they are pushed into seeking influence. Do they want to keep rejecting cooperation and hope for a dysfunctional Social Democrat - Moderate government to be formed, and hope for it's quick collapse and gain voters? Or do they risk seeking influence and government posts, with the chance that their party could get further decimated?
If we get a green/red majority, would there not be some pressure on the Liberals to join a government and avoid too punitive measures towards the agrictulural sector on climate? An issue which the Social Democrats are trying to pound the Liberals on.
I think it's very hard to predict, but probably more likely the Liberals go for a broad government themselves, certainly if there are the seats for Social Democrats + Moderates + Liberals without needing the Social Liberals. But if both Liberals + Conservatives go it for, they could maybe end up shutting Løkke out of it.

Or do you think it's more likely, in a situation where the Moderates get the balance of power, that they effectively end up joining the "red bloc" but with Enhedslisten marginalised?

This is the scenario which Løkke says he can't see happening in the above interview. And that wouldn't be the broad government, he has said he is willing to create a gridlock for. I think Løkke sees SPP as too statist, and would therefore have a very hard time being in a government carrying out those kind of reforms of the public sector which Løkke so favours.
But again, it's very likely we end up with an election result where there is not 90 seats for any options, which haven't been ruled out by at least one of the parties. And the question is who budges. If none of them does before the election, it should take quite a bit of time of negotiations for someone to budge, if it's to be seen as even remotely legitimate.

It's a little confusing for some of us that the English translation of LLR's party is the same as that used for Birgitte Nyborg's original party in Borgen; I think the Danish names are different, though.  (See also the "New Right", which in the English subtitles for Borgen was used for the party equivalent to the Conservatives.)

Well, if Borgen hadn't used "de Moderate", I'm sure this could easily have been the name for Løkke's party instead since this is the logical Danish way to pluralize it. "Moderaterne" is the Swedish inflection, and not how you would say it in Danish to describe the bunch of moderate people.
In the same way as the party in Borgen is called "de Liberale", and a Swedish party is called Liberalerna.

In Borgen, New Right is the direct translation of "Ny Højre". That would refer to the predecessor of the Conservative party, Højre (Right) which existed from 1881-1916. However, in reality I believe the name change was partly to distance themselves somewhat to the authoritarian style of that period, where governance was often through temporary decrees and without parliament. So that's why Højre is not in their name IRL.
In the real world, it's more about the difficulty to translate borgerlige into English in a good way. Bourgeois is way to attached to marxist analysis in a disapproving way. In reality, it's a kind of empty term for right wing which encompasses both liberal and conservative ideas. So New Right is probably the most accurate translation of Nye Borgerlige. As far as I can see, in German it's just translated to Neue Bürgerliche, as that latter term is much closer to the Danish version.

[Diouf]

What is the reason for the Liberal Alliance resurgence? I remember people writing them off after poor results at the last election.

Jens basically covers the positive things they do. And then it has of course helped that their main competitor in the low-tax centre-right position, the Conservatives, has had this horrible campaign.