Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Diouf]

PM Mette Frederiksen has just called an election for the 1 November 2022. Frederiksen was forced to call an early general election by one of her support parties, the Social Liberals, after the Mink Commission published an extremely critical report of her government’s illegal mink cull. The Social Liberals stopped short of supporting the opposition’s demand of an independent lawyer review into whether there is a basis for an impeachment case against Frederiksen, but said the scandal proved the fatal consequences of the one-party government's self-willed style. Therefore, the party insisted on new elections and for a multi-party government to be formed as a result. Another potentially crucial centrist party, the Moderates led by former liberal PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen, insists that there must be such a review if the party is to support a Frederiksen-led government.

After a convincing Red Bloc victory in 2019 and a boost in support during the first months of covid, many saw a second Frederiksen term as inevitable. However, the red lead narrowed throughout 2021 and 2022 to a significant degree. And then in the summer of 2022, several factors in unison swung the polls further toward the right. The Mink Commission’s report was published, the former liberal Minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg started her new party the Denmark Democrats and the inflation and energy crisis caused voters to cross the political centre. This has meant polling where there is suddenly a significant possibility for a kingmaker role for the Moderates, and even a pure Blue Bloc victory is at least plausible.

Weighted average of polls according to politiologi.dk for Jyllands-Posten:

Parties preferring a Red Bloc government

Social Democrats 24.8% 45 seats
SPP 8.2% 15
Red-Green Alliance 7.7% 14
The Alternative 1.2% 0
Independent Greens 0.6% 0

Combined: 42.5% 74

Parties preferring a cross-centre government

Social Liberals 5.6% 10
Moderates 3.4% 6
Christian Democrats 0.7% 0

Combined: 9.7% 16

Parties preferring a Blue Bloc government

Conservatives 12.9% 23
Liberals 12.3% 22
Denmark Democrats 10.3% 19
New Right 5.6% 10
Liberal Alliance 4.1% 7
DPP 2.3% 4

Combined: 47.5% 85

Here are the threads on Danish politics and elections in recent years:

Danish Elections and Politics 2019-2022 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327629
Danish referendum on EU defence opt-out, 1 June 2022 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=485384
Danish Local and Regional Elections, 16 November 2021 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441663
Danish General Election, 5 June 2019 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315151
Danish General Election, 18 June 2015 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204244
Danish General Election, 15 September 2011 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140114

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think i asked this when the crisis started but how have ø and SPP reacted to Ukraine?

[Tintrlvr]

Why does Denmark have three from the outside completely indistinguishable anti-immigration right-wing parties now? Is there a class difference like between PVV and FvD in the Netherlands?

[Diouf]

In her speech calling the election Mette Frederiksen said that she aims to form a broad government with parties across the centre of politics. She of course already launched that idea back in June, but has until now stated that the first preference is a continuation of the current one-party government. However, she didn't make that additional comment this time, so one must understand that a broad government is now her first preference. The reactions to her message was much the same as back in June: rejection from the Blue parties, anger from the parties to her left, and cheering from the centrist parties.

The Social Liberals said they support Frederiksen as PM after the election, since she is the only one of the PM candidates open for a broad government. The party also starts to soften a bit on their demand of a centrist government. They now say that you can't force parties to enter a government, so if the blue parties keep rejecting a cross-centre government, they could instead enter into a government with the Social Democrats and SPP. Many have maybe expected them to end there anyway after the election, but perhaps a bit early to do that climbdown. The Moderates are already claiming it shows they are the only true centrist party.

The Blue parties held a common meeting to start off the campaign, and have focused on talking up their wishes of a government based on a Blue majority.
https://twitter.com/JakobEllemann/status/1577607460571041793

[JimJamUK]

I think i asked this when the crisis started but how have ø and SPP reacted to Ukraine?

SF have been fully pro-Ukraine, to the point they were one of the 5 original backers of the defence agreement which massively increased military spending. EL have been more equivocal, narrowly backing weapons to Ukraine but avoiding the more ‘imperialist’ stuff. They are party who got the most focus on random party bureaucrats and low level politicians saying questionable stuff, but given their far left (including outright Stalinist) lineage, they’ve been surprisingly mainstream.

[JimJamUK]

Why does Denmark have three from the outside completely indistinguishable anti-immigration right-wing parties now? Is there a class difference like between PVV and FvD in the Netherlands?

Assuming you’re referring to DF, DD, and NB, I wouldn’t consider them all indistinguishable. DF and DD are probably the most similar, being parties clearly profiled by their anti-immigration vibes along with feel good pro-welfare policies and a leader who is willing to compromise with the other right wing parties. Still, DF is probably a bit more genuinely left leaning while Støjberg officially has more moderate immigration policies (pro-economic migration and merely ‘reforming’ international conventions). NB is more clearly distinguishable, being a properly economically right wing party (albeit with a few populist policies thrown in) that would happily go to whatever lengths are needed to tackle what they would see as (Muslim) immigration problems. At this point, I would guess that NB have the least working class voter base, while DD will do best in Jutland, but it’s hard to give proper estimates as Danish pollsters rarely post voting intention by demographics and the polling has changed dramatically in the past few months.

[Lurker]

I agree that they aren't indistinguishable, but the ever-increasing number of right-wing parties is getting pretty strange. Until relatively recently (2007 election), there were three main parties in the blue bloc (the VKO coalition). Now there are six, and that's not counting the party led by the last bourgeois prime minister. A pretty crowded market*.

(*For those also on the other place: Politicus had an excellent and very detailed post explaining some of the historical reasons for why the Danish party system has been much more volatile than their Scandinavian neighbours.)

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

[ingemann]

Why does Denmark have three from the outside completely indistinguishable anti-immigration right-wing parties now? Is there a class difference like between PVV and FvD in the Netherlands?

There’s likely too many, but there’s also real political difference.

The Denmark Democrats are pretty much the liberals, but with a personality cult around the leader and harder line on immigration and integration.

New Right are bunch of rich conservatives who found out there was a empty niche between Liberal Alliance and DDP, they’re the most hard line party on foreigners.

Danish People Party is in flux right now, the new leader is attempting to shift the party to a more National Conservative position.

[ingemann]

I think i asked this when the crisis started but how have ø and SPP reacted to Ukraine?

Better than you expect, SPP almost from the start lay a pro-Ukraine line, while it took a few days while Unity List’s leadership was breaking skulls on dissidents for Unity List to adopt clear and united pro-Ukraine line.

Putin’s money is for some reason not as big factor in Danish politics as elsewhere.

[ingemann]

I agree that they aren't indistinguishable, but the ever-increasing number of right-wing parties is getting pretty strange. Until relatively recently (2007 election), there were three main parties in the blue bloc (the VKO coalition). Now there are six, and that's not counting the party led by the last bourgeois prime minister. A pretty crowded market*.

(*For those also on the other place: Politicus had an excellent and very detailed post explaining some of the historical reasons for why the Danish party system has been much more volatile than their Scandinavian neighbours.)

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

VKÆM

Also yes Danish politics has too many parties, but I expect the different Green parties to disappear. As the anti-immigration parties I expect some clean up there with one or two survivors, LA is also likely to not survive long term through it will make it through this election. LA simply overlap too much with factions in New Right, Conservative and the Liberals to survive long term, the only way I can see LA survive is if New Right end up collapsing.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I mean even the current government is repatriating refugees, so I can only imagine what a right wing government would do.

[Diouf]

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

If the six Blue parties get a majority, the government will include Liberals + Conservatives + probably Denmark Democrats.

The Moderates shouldn't be counted in the Blue Bloc. Their whole raison d'être is building a government across the centre, and keeping out the wings. So a Blue Bloc with the Moderates, would be one without New Right, DPP and likely Denmark Democrats. Løkke today said he sees Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance as potential government parties.

[Diouf]

Three polls today from Megafon, Epinion and Gallup. They mostly show the same movements with Social Democrats and Moderates gaining, Social Liberals and Conservatives declining, and DPP all the way down around 2%.

[DavidB.]

Truly surreal that this might actually be the end for DF. End of an era for sure.

Some questions:

1. Do our Danish posters expect DF to be in or out in the end?
2. Who governs if the Red Bloc win -  I read everything about Frederiksen's supposed preference, but in the end isn't it going to be ABF anyway? In what direction will immigration policy then move?
3. Who votes M? Rich people in northern Copenhagen suburbs/exurbs who previously voted V/C/B?
4. If Æ (do people actually abbreviate this as DD too?) are the biggest in the Blue Bloc, which isn't completely impossible at all looking at the polls, will V/C/I allow Støjberg to become PM?

[Diouf]

Truly surreal that this might actually be the end for DF. End of an era for sure.

Some questions:

1. Do our Danish posters expect DF to be in or out in the end?
2. Who governs if the Red Bloc win -  I read everything about Frederiksen's supposed preference, but in the end isn't it going to be ABF anyway? In what direction will immigration policy then move?
3. Who votes M? Rich people in northern Copenhagen suburbs/exurbs who previously voted V/C/B?
4. If Æ (do people actually abbreviate this as DD too?) are the biggest in the Blue Bloc, which isn't completely impossible at all looking at the polls, will V/C/I allow Støjberg to become PM?

1. I don't have much clue either way. The unweighted average of the four pollsters who have released polls so far is 1.9%, so basically as much on edge as it can be. I would think it should be an advantage that they still have quite big name candidates compared to their small size, Messerschmidt himself, Pia Kjærsgaard and Rene Christensen, plus a fair few others with experience as MP and/or long-time councillors. Maybe a bit of a personal vote could still help them. I actually think Messerschmidt has done quite well in recent days, and with a lot of energy. But maybe people have just turned off the party. There has been little talk of Blue voters lending them votes, and with the Blue Bloc fading in polls, it seems less likely that people would consider it.

2. Well with a majority for the normal Red Bloc, yeah I wouldn't exactly be shocked if after some drawn-out negotiations, the Social Democrats say that "Well, since none of the Blue parties want to work with us, I guess we do have to form a government within this majority". And then yes, it would likely be with SPP and Social Liberals.

3. In terms of party choice, DR/Epinion says 48% are former Liberal voters, 14% former Social Liberals, 9% former Social Democrats and 8% former Conservatives. I haven't seen much analysis of their voter's demographics yet, and with the recent gains it might change again. They would probably be more likely to gain a former Liberal voter in Copenhagen and Northern Zealand than in Northern and Western Jutland, but the share of former Liberal voters is a lot bigger in the two latter. So currently, my guess would be that the party would be among those parties with the lowest relative standard deviation when looking at the %-shares in the ten multimember constituencies. The main message of cooperation across the centre, responsible politics etc. strikes me as one that is much less geographically concentrated, than messages about the top tax, immigration etc. Klaus Riskær Pedersen in 2019 ran on much the same message, and his party was the one with the lowest relative standard deviation across the ten constituencies. In the one regional poll, I have seen so far, which is from Northern Jutland, the Moderates look like getting 4%, which at the time was just slightly above what Gallup had them on nationally.

4. No. Liberal Alliance will definitively be against, and might even try to block her just becoming minister. And the two others wouldn't accept it either. Liberals have actually said so far that the leader of the biggest Blue party should get to lead the government (as they believe a bigger chance of that happening than a majority of Blue seats backing them), but they would walk that back if Denmark Democrats became the biggest party.

[Diouf]

Pape in more trouble as it has been revealed he called Greenland "Africa on ice" in a meeting with American diplomats. Something which he has had to apologize for now.

The Liberal Alliance now seems to be okay with Denmark Democrats in government. Previously their MP Ole Birk Olesen said that Støjberg had to show deep regrets in terms of the case, if they were to consider accepting her as minister again. Party leader Alex Vanopslagh now says that "As things are now, no we won't block her from becoming minister again".

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Today, the parties could start putting up election posters. The big parties have been out in public for many weeks with ads on bus stops, busses, walls etc., but now the myriad of posters signal that the campaign has started for real.

[Diouf]

Megafon's newest poll for TV2 has Conservatives falling to 10.5%, now only 0.4% ahead of Denmark Democrats. Liberal Alliance could likely be one of the beneficiaries; they are now up at 5.2%. Moderates continue to gain and reach 6.5%, which would give them 12 seats. 83 for the current Red Bloc and 80 for the Blue Bloc.

[ingemann]

Truly surreal that this might actually be the end for DF. End of an era for sure.

Some questions:

1. Do our Danish posters expect DF to be in or out in the end?
2. Who governs if the Red Bloc win -  I read everything about Frederiksen's supposed preference, but in the end isn't it going to be ABF anyway? In what direction will immigration policy then move?
3. Who votes M? Rich people in northern Copenhagen suburbs/exurbs who previously voted V/C/B?
4. If Æ (do people actually abbreviate this as DD too?) are the biggest in the Blue Bloc, which isn't completely impossible at all looking at the polls, will V/C/I allow Støjberg to become PM?

1: I give it a 50/50 chance.
2: Immigration policy won’t change, the Social Democrats recognize that this is one place they can’t give a inch,
3: I would guess that it’s mostly middle class people and some center right working class types.
4: No.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Do the Faroe and Greenland parties typically join governments?

[YL]

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

If the six Blue parties get a majority, the government will include Liberals + Conservatives + probably Denmark Democrats.

The Moderates shouldn't be counted in the Blue Bloc. Their whole raison d'être is building a government across the centre, and keeping out the wings. So a Blue Bloc with the Moderates, would be one without New Right, DPP and likely Denmark Democrats. Løkke today said he sees Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance as potential government parties.

Do you think there's any interest from Venstre or the Conservatives in such a government?  If not, what happens if the Moderates do end up holding the balance of power?

[Diouf]

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Do the Faroe and Greenland parties typically join governments?

No, never.

[Diouf]

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

If the six Blue parties get a majority, the government will include Liberals + Conservatives + probably Denmark Democrats.

The Moderates shouldn't be counted in the Blue Bloc. Their whole raison d'être is building a government across the centre, and keeping out the wings. So a Blue Bloc with the Moderates, would be one without New Right, DPP and likely Denmark Democrats. Løkke today said he sees Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance as potential government parties.

Do you think there's any interest from Venstre or the Conservatives in such a government?  If not, what happens if the Moderates do end up holding the balance of power?

They are rejecting it clearly now. With so much competition about the Blue voters, they are afraid that any concession towards the Social Democrats and Mette Frederiksen will cause them to haemorrhage voters to their nearest competitors. Then, as Løkke says as well, the interesting thing is what they will say after the election. The Moderates have promised gridlock until we have a cross-bloc government. For both Løkke and Liberals + Conservatives, it will be easier to back a Social Democrat-led government if it's not led by Frederiksen, but that isn't exactly a concession the Social Democrats will make on the first day of negotiations, if ever.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Do the Faroe and Greenland parties typically join governments?

No, never.

It'd be interesting if a Government had to lean on them for a majority. Red bloc plus S and IA from Greenland for example.

[Diouf]

Today, the former leader of the Defence Intelligence Service published a book about the scandal in the defence intelligence service. In the book, he sharply criticizes then Minister of Defence Trine Bramsen who told him about his suspension in August 2020, and writes that she defended the decision to him by arguing that she needed "to be able to count to 90", i.e. keep the support of the government's support parties. Findsen also describes how he had several clashes with Barbara Bertelsen, the head of the Prime Minister's department, when she was head of the department at the Ministry of Justice. Findsen also says the decision to suspend him was made in the Prime Ministry. Findsen and a friend of his had talked about how Trine Bramsen is "thick as two short planks" when he was surveilled, and that the friend was later interrogated about this criticism of the government. Finally, Findsen explains how the head of the Defence Intelligence Service's legal division told him that his case would be looked on more mildly if he made some concession of guilt and revealed who in the service was a source for the media. An offer which would be illegal under Danish law. And Findsen states he doesn't know who in the service were sources for the media.

So just as the Mink Scandal was perhaps getting a bit stale to hear about for some swing voters, there is renewed focus and allegations about another scandal, which also points back towards Mette Frederiksen and Barbara Bertelsen in the Prime Ministry. If the media pursue this story further in the coming weeks, it could halt the Social Democrats' great start to the campaign.

[Diouf]

The Faroe Island government has applied to move their election forward one day, as the 1 November is the nation's day of mourning for all those lost at sea. A wish a majority in parliament has just approved. With totally different parties in the Faroe Islands, it's doubtful whether there would be any influence on the Danish election. 

Do the Faroe and Greenland parties typically join governments?

No, never.

It'd be interesting if a Government had to lean on them for a majority. Red bloc plus S and IA from Greenland for example.

It wouldn't be unusual. Usually, there isn't much drama, as the North Atlantic MPs tend to stay out of the pre-dominantly Danish issues, and just vote with their Danish sister party. Only in a few foreign policy/North Atlantic issues could it become relevant, and in these issues there are usually big cross-centre majorities anyway.