Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[ingemann]

Why does Denmark have three from the outside completely indistinguishable anti-immigration right-wing parties now? Is there a class difference like between PVV and FvD in the Netherlands?

There’s likely too many, but there’s also real political difference.

The Denmark Democrats are pretty much the liberals, but with a personality cult around the leader and harder line on immigration and integration.

New Right are bunch of rich conservatives who found out there was a empty niche between Liberal Alliance and DDP, they’re the most hard line party on foreigners.

Danish People Party is in flux right now, the new leader is attempting to shift the party to a more National Conservative position.

[ingemann]

I think i asked this when the crisis started but how have ø and SPP reacted to Ukraine?

Better than you expect, SPP almost from the start lay a pro-Ukraine line, while it took a few days while Unity List’s leadership was breaking skulls on dissidents for Unity List to adopt clear and united pro-Ukraine line.

Putin’s money is for some reason not as big factor in Danish politics as elsewhere.

[ingemann]

I agree that they aren't indistinguishable, but the ever-increasing number of right-wing parties is getting pretty strange. Until relatively recently (2007 election), there were three main parties in the blue bloc (the VKO coalition). Now there are six, and that's not counting the party led by the last bourgeois prime minister. A pretty crowded market*.

(*For those also on the other place: Politicus had an excellent and very detailed post explaining some of the historical reasons for why the Danish party system has been much more volatile than their Scandinavian neighbours.)

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

VKÆM

Also yes Danish politics has too many parties, but I expect the different Green parties to disappear. As the anti-immigration parties I expect some clean up there with one or two survivors, LA is also likely to not survive long term through it will make it through this election. LA simply overlap too much with factions in New Right, Conservative and the Liberals to survive long term, the only way I can see LA survive is if New Right end up collapsing.

[ingemann]

Truly surreal that this might actually be the end for DF. End of an era for sure.

Some questions:

1. Do our Danish posters expect DF to be in or out in the end?
2. Who governs if the Red Bloc win -  I read everything about Frederiksen's supposed preference, but in the end isn't it going to be ABF anyway? In what direction will immigration policy then move?
3. Who votes M? Rich people in northern Copenhagen suburbs/exurbs who previously voted V/C/B?
4. If Æ (do people actually abbreviate this as DD too?) are the biggest in the Blue Bloc, which isn't completely impossible at all looking at the polls, will V/C/I allow Støjberg to become PM?

1: I give it a 50/50 chance.
2: Immigration policy won’t change, the Social Democrats recognize that this is one place they can’t give a inch,
3: I would guess that it’s mostly middle class people and some center right working class types.
4: No.

[ingemann]

What is the reason for the Liberal Alliance resurgence? I remember people writing them off after poor results at the last election.

They have a significant higher election budget than the other parties and have used that to spam the internet in general and TikTok specific. I find most of their attempt at meming cringeworthy (member of their youth party call their leader “daddy” as some kind of meme), but it seems a success among young men.

But it’s also strengthen by other serious factors, thanks to Covid the last government seems like a millennium ago, so some of their behavior then has been somewhat forgotten, their leader was also unconnected with the government in question. At the same time he has a significant fan base among the media.

[ingemann]

What is the reason for the Liberal Alliance resurgence? I remember people writing them off after poor results at the last election.

Their leader is quite the campaigner and is very strong on SoMe, so they are hitting a note with a younger audience - and besides the Struer flat-gate, Alex has been a cleaner leader among the numerous right wingers

I question whether he is cleaner, as youth leader for the party he covered up the sexual abuse cases and attacked the victims. I think it’s more a question of LA falling into Goldilocks zone, where they are irrelevant enough that these cases aren’t brought forward and relevant enough to be seen as a serious party.

[ingemann]

The possible A+M+B alliance is already at 74 seats in that poll. 3 seats ahead of the Blue Bloc as a whole.

I must admit without the three parties having 90 seat on their own, I don’t really see the benefit of B being part of the coalition for A or M.

[ingemann]

I must admit without the three parties having 90 seat on their own, I don’t really see the benefit of B being part of the coalition for A or M.

Yeah, from the Social Democrats perspective it’s not like Radikale would be a counterweight on economics or immigration, while from any Blue party’s perspective they would be dragging the coalition too far to the left on value politics. If a cross-bloc government is formed then Radikale getting chucked seems a reasonable possibility.

I think that SPP joining a AM government is more likely than B. The only way I could see B joining is if they correct people are culled in the election (Zenia Stampe or at least her faction) and Lidegaard becomes the new leader of B. I’m not the biggest fan of Lidegaard but he at least understand that they need to make some major compromises on immigration. As for value politics, I don’t really think either A or M really cares about it, as long as it doesn’t make the general population angry at the government, they don’t really care and that extend far out to the right and left.

[ingemann]

Bergur Løkke Rasmussen (yes, the son of a certain ex-Liberal politician)

Is there any reason why he hasn't followed his father to the Moderates?

If I had to guess, the Moderates are unlikely to survive long term, Bergur is young and if he want a long political career, he’s better off staying in the Liberals.