Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Diouf]

9,5% counted in Faroe Islands, and so far the polls seem to be quite right. Progress for the two pro-Union parties, who currently hold the two seats. One for the Social Democrats and one for the Union party. They both seem to add a percentage or two, while the two pro-Independence parties are both declining. The left-wing Republic a little, and the right-wing People's Party a lot.

[Jens]

What time do polls in Denmark close at and do they have exit polls?  Also what about Faroe Islands & Greenland as while not many seats if close could be deciding factor?  When do they post results?

The polls close at 8 PM and the final result will be ready around midnight (or later if one or more of the districts in CPH messes up the count)
Both DR and TV-2 will make exit polls
The Faroe Islands voted today. The Greenland result will probably arrive a few hours after midnight, but negotiations will probably take days, so it will not matter that much.

[Diouf]

27.7% counted in Faroe Islands.

Union Party 34.6%
Social Democrats 25.1%
Republic 17.0%
People's Party 15.9%

We still don't have Torshavn or a few other big towns, but it looks fairly settled already, when looking at the trends.
So the likelt outcome is Sjúrður Skaale will be reelected as the Social Democrat MP, while the Union Party MP will be Anna Falkenberg, the granddaughter of their current MP Edmund Joensen.

[mileslunn]

Here is final result.

Flokkur                           Val 2022   %   
A   Fólkaflokkurin           4222   15,5   
B   Sambandsflokkurin   8198   30,2   
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   7659   28,2   
E   Tjóðveldi                   4927   18,1   
F   Framsókn                   936   3,4   
H   Miðflokkurin           1217   4,5   

Anyone have a translation and also know what groups each fall into?

[MRCVzla]

Here is final result.

Flokkur                           Val 2022   %   
A   Fólkaflokkurin           4222   15,5   
B   Sambandsflokkurin   8198   30,2   
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   7659   28,2   
E   Tjóðveldi                   4927   18,1   
F   Framsókn                   936   3,4   
H   Miðflokkurin           1217   4,5   

Anyone have a translation and also know what groups each fall into?

B (Sambandsflokkurin/Union Party) belongs to the Blue bloc
C (Javnaðarflokkurin/Social Democrats) belongs to the Red bloc (ofc)

Both are Unionist, the following two strongest parties without a seat are pro-Indy but in the different blocs as E (Tjóðveldi/Republic) is left-wing/Red and A (Fólkaflokkurin/People's Party) is conservative/Blue.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Happy election day to the trolls under the bridge

Insha'allah the xenophobes in red beat the xenophobes in blue

[Diouf]

Turnout comparisons to 2019 doesn't make any sense this time, since election day in 2019 was a holiday for many people, so the turnout picture was a lot different. This time, it's a normal work day so the turnout will increase a lot when people return from work. Most media don't provide 2015 numbers, when comparing which means it's hard to put into perspective. I found this on Aarhus municipality homepage. At 15.00, turnout in 2022 is 45.1%, 2019 it was 56.5% and 2015 it was 43.9%. 2019 and 2015 had a final turnout of 86.9 and 86.7% respectively. So if the pattern is the same as a usual election day, then Aarhus numbers suggest we might even get a bit higher turnout this time.

The official results page is: https://kmdvalg.dk/Main

DR and TV2 will have an exit poll at 20.00, and once they have a decent batch of results in, they will change from a raw count into a prognosis. So the DR and TV2 pronosis will usually be an easier way to follow things, than the official results page where you have to account for the big cities coming in late.

For those on Independent Greens watch, it will especially be interesting to see how many immigrant votes they manage to mobilize. Below are some of the heavy-immigrant polling places, where Social Liberals did very well in 2019, and where the Independent Greens will need to dominate if they are to make a shock entrance into parliament. They are in Aarhus, Odense and Copenhagen, so it might be a bit late into the night:
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751025.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751062.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F601461035.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F107101032.htm

The polling place which was closest to the national result in 2019 was this one. It had the least overall difference when you look across all parties, although it leaned slightly red overall:
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F809746006.htm

[Diouf]

Unweighted average of the last polls from each of the five pollsters, Epinion, Megafon, Yougov, Gallup + Voxmeter.

In the geographical prognosis, we have the scenario I have mentioned a few times. The Social Democrats are so much bigger than the other parties, that they get more constituency seats than their deserved share of all seats nationally. Here they get 46 constituency seats, while only deserving 45 seats. They get to keep all 46 seats, and then there's simply another party which will end up a seat short. In this scenario, the Social Liberals which get seven seats instead of the 8 their vote share deserves.

Social Democrats 25.5% 46 seats
Social Liberals 4.3% 7
Conservatives 6.1% 11
New Right 4.4% 8
SPP 8.9% 16
Liberal Alliance 7.6% 13
Christian Democrats 0.6% 0
Moderates 8.5% 15
DPP 2.8% 5
Independent Greens 0.6% 0
Liberals 13.6% 24
Denmark Democrats 7.9% 14
Red-Green Alliance 6.4% 11
Alternative 2.8% 5


90 seats required for a majority. Faroe Island are one Social Democrat + 1 Liberal. Greenland likely one Social Democrat + one leftist seemingly preferring broad centre-left government with Moderates. The North Atlantic seats are in brackets below.
The Moderates with the decisive seats. It's not long from a Red majority. At last night's debate, Frederiksen said her first priority would be a government across the centre, even with a Red Bloc majority. We will see about that, but in any circumstance it would give her a much better hand in such negotiations with Moderates and Blue parties. The Social Liberals demand a multiparty government, so one must assume the current one-party government can't continue.

Red Bloc: 85 seats (+2/3)
Blue Bloc: 75 seats (+1)
Moderates: 15 seats (+0/1)

Soc Dems + Moderates + Liberals: 85 (+4)
Soc Dems + Moderates + SPP + Soc Lib: 84 (+3)

[Double Carpet]

Hi Diouf, many thanks for the updates, much appreciated.

https://www.dr.dk/drtv/kanal/20875 is the link for DR1 but TV2 appears to be geoblocked?

If anyone has an unblocked link that would be great.

Thanks,

DC

[YL]

For those on Independent Greens watch, it will especially be interesting to see how many immigrant votes they manage to mobilize. Below are some of the heavy-immigrant polling places, where Social Liberals did very well in 2019, and where the Independent Greens will need to dominate if they are to make a shock entrance into parliament. They are in Aarhus, Odense and Copenhagen, so it might be a bit late into the night:
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751025.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751062.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F601461035.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F107101032.htm

I guess we'll find out soon enough now, but do you think there's any realistic chance that they will get into parliament?  They're consistently under half the threshold in the recent polls, so unless there's some systematic poor sampling of their potential electorate I'd have thought it very unlikely.  Or is their vote sufficiently unevenly distributed that they have a chance of getting in by winning a constituency seat when well short of the threshold?

[Diouf]

Hi Diouf, many thanks for the updates, much appreciated.

https://www.dr.dk/drtv/kanal/20875 is the link for DR1 but TV2 appears to be geoblocked?

If anyone has an unblocked link that would be great.

Thanks,

DC

Is the live blog link geoblocked as well?

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/live/2022-11-01-folketingsvalg-i-danmark

The two tabloid newspapers have live streams as well.

https://ekstrabladet.dk/eblive/Valg/?ilc=c
https://www.bt.dk/folketingsvalg-2022/live-tv-foelg-valget-minut-for-minut-her

[Diouf]

Pictures of the party leaders voting: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/valgkys-koeer-og-haabefulde-politiske-ledere-se-de-hidtil-bedste

As expected the turnout is now catching up with 2019, as people go voting after coming home from work. Ritzau looked at turnout in 19 municipalities. At 18.00, turnout was 72.9%, in 2019 it was 74.6%.
Last time, the final national turnout was 84.6%. I think, we will end around 86-87% this time.

[Diouf]

For those on Independent Greens watch, it will especially be interesting to see how many immigrant votes they manage to mobilize. Below are some of the heavy-immigrant polling places, where Social Liberals did very well in 2019, and where the Independent Greens will need to dominate if they are to make a shock entrance into parliament. They are in Aarhus, Odense and Copenhagen, so it might be a bit late into the night:
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751025.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751062.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F601461035.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F107101032.htm

I guess we'll find out soon enough now, but do you think there's any realistic chance that they will get into parliament?  They're consistently under half the threshold in the recent polls, so unless there's some systematic poor sampling of their potential electorate I'd have thought it very unlikely.  Or is their vote sufficiently unevenly distributed that they have a chance of getting in by winning a constituency seat when well short of the threshold?

As you say, it will have to be a systematically poor sampling, and underestimation of turnout. So all polls count against it. But still interesting to see how they do. Are the complete amateurs, or will they at least manage to get their vote out in some of the immigrant heavy areas and perhaps top the count in some polling places. That could give them hope to carry on.
I don't think it's unevenly distributed enough for them to win a constituency seat before reaching 2.0% nationally. They will likely do better in Copenhagen and Copenhagen Environs, but I don't think by the same degree as a party like the Alternative, which could get a Copenhagen constituency seat at around 1.9%

[Diouf]

As expected the turnout is now catching up with 2019, as people go voting after coming home from work. Ritzau looked at turnout in 19 municipalities. At 18.00, turnout was 72.9%, in 2019 it was 74.6%.
Last time, the final national turnout was 84.6%. I think, we will end around 86-87% this time.

Turnout at 19.00 is 81.1%, in 2019 it was 81.6%.

[mileslunn]

First exit poll is

Red Bloc 86
Blue Bloc 72
Moderates 17

So no majority.  Possible due to margin of error Red Bloc narrowly gets one while Blue Bloc will need moderates to have a shot.

[Diouf]

DR exit poll by Epinion

Social Democrats 23.1% (-2.8%) 42 (-6)
Liberals 13.5% (-9.9%) 24 (-19)
SPP 9.6% (+1.9%) 17 (+3)
Moderates 9.3% (new) 17 (new)
Liberal Alliance 9.0% (+6.7%) 16 (+12)
Denmark Democrats 6.9% (new) 12 (new)
Red-Green Alliance 6.2% (-0.7%) 11 (-2)
Conservatives 5.5% (-1.1%) 10 (-2)
Social Liberals 4.7% (-3.9%) 8 (-8)
Alternative 3.9% (+0.9%) 7 (+2)
New Right 3.8% (+1.4%) 7 (+3)
DPP 2.5% (-6.2%) 4 (-12)
Independent Greens 1.3% (new) 0 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.4% (-1.3%) 0 (=)

Red Bloc 85 seats
Blue Bloc 73 seats
Moderates 17 seats

Social Democrat - Moderate - Liberal 83 seats
Social Democrat - SPP - Moderate - Social Liberals 84

[JimJamUK]

Per the exit poll, the Social Democrats seem to have underperformed, with the Liberal Alliance and The Alternative doing better than expected.

[YL]

TV 2 exit poll is a bit better for the Soc Dems: 25.1%.

[Logical]

Independent Greens at 1.3% so not impossible for them to pass the threshold.

[Diouf]

The first tiny results are already coming in at https://kmdvalg.dk/Main

The first one was Drejø in the Svendborg district.
Social Democrats the biggest party with 22 seats, followed by Moderates at 8 and Denmark Democrats at 7

[JimJamUK]

Independent Greens at 1.3% so not impossible for them to pass the threshold.

Depends whether they’ve picked up a generic left wing protest vote or whether they’ve posted a shockingly good result specifically in the ‘ghettos’, only the latter could possibly be concentrated enough to win a seat (and probably much closer to 2% needed).

[Diouf]

Independent Greens at 1.3% so not impossible for them to pass the threshold.

Only at 0.5% in TV2s. If they get 1.3%, that's pretty respectable.

[Ethelberth]

Pre 70 parties got about 100 seats.

[Diouf]

Graphic by Erik Gahner, which shows all parties. It shows the exit polls results from DR and TV2, the last poll from each pollster, and the two polling average from Politiologi and Altinget

[mileslunn]

Faroe Islands is 1 for each bloc while guessing Greenland is both for Red Bloc (although not counted yet) so Red Bloc needs 87 in Denmark proper to get over majority line or do exit polls include those?  If so would suggest Red Bloc falls just short but very close.