Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Diouf]

TV2 now shown tightening

82 Red Bloc
78 Blue Bloc
15 Moderate

So looks like moderates will hold balance of power and Red Bloc winning majority seems pretty far fetched at this point.

I think they are just showing the current results, not an actual projection

It's a projection on both DR and TV2

[ce]

Here you can get informed about results:

1. ...   tv2fyn.dk   ...
2. ...   dr.dk   ...
3. ...   nyhedertv2.dk   ...
4. ...   altinget.dk   ...
5. ...   twitter/Nassreddin2002   ... (this guys post frecuently and knows a lot)

sorry i can't post links, new to the forum

[Diouf]

DR's exit poll showed a quite poor result for the Social Democrats, and now the prognosis has them at 27.5% (+1.6%) and 49 seats (+1). So the Mette or chaos certainly seemed to have given them a big boost, but maybe mostly due to eating the other Red parties. SPP doesn't seem to get the expected progress, just 0.1% better than in 2019. Red-Greens declining 2.5%. Alternative losing 0.2%. And of course Social Liberals being slaughtered, down 5.3% and only six seats. Must be closer to 5 than to 7 seats for the Social Liberals now.

[Logical]

Projections update

DR
Red Bloc 82
Blue Bloc 77
Moderates 16

TV2
Red Bloc 84
Blue Bloc 76
Moderates 15

[Diouf]

Bornholm is the first finished constituency.
Social Democrats doing well, and Liberals poorly. But not enough for Social Democrats to be twice as big as Liberals, which they needed to win both seats. Social Democrats got 8.730 (35.3%) votes, and Liberals got 4.641 (18.8%), so it's a seat each for Social Democrat and Liberals.

[H. Ross Peron]

Good to see the Social Democrats holding up better than the initial DR exit poll.

[Diouf]

TV2 now again way more positive for the Red Bloc than DR. 85 - 75 - 15 on TV2, and 82 - 77 - 16 on DR.

[Ethelberth]

Bornholm is the first finished constituency.
Social Democrats doing well, and Liberals poorly. But not enough for Social Democrats to be twice as big as Liberals, which they needed to win both seats. Social Democrats got 8.730 (35.3%) votes, and Liberals got 4.641 (18.8%), so it's a seat each for Social Democrat and Liberals.

Why Bornholm is that red, Islands like that are conventiomally bastions of non-socialism.

[Logical]

With 60% of the vote counted the projections are converging

DR
Red Bloc 83
Blue Bloc 76
Moderates 16

TV2
Red Bloc 84
Blue Bloc 75
Moderates 16

[Diouf]

For those on Independent Greens watch, it will especially be interesting to see how many immigrant votes they manage to mobilize. Below are some of the heavy-immigrant polling places, where Social Liberals did very well in 2019, and where the Independent Greens will need to dominate if they are to make a shock entrance into parliament. They are in Aarhus, Odense and Copenhagen, so it might be a bit late into the night:
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751025.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751062.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F601461035.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F107101032.htm

28% in Camp U for them. The best result, I have seen so far. They top the poll in Brønshøj Nord with 26.3% and top the poll in Globus 1 with 23.2%.

[crals]

Seems that a Red majority is not happening. A/V/M will seemingly have a majority with the North Atlantic seats but that would require V to change their mind about a broad government.

[Diouf]

Not staying up much longer. Need to be up quite early tomorrow for helping with the recount.
But it seems like the interesting things will last for weeks and months anyway if the prognosis holds.

[rosin]

DR's prognosis gets more and more red, now only one seat differs between the two channels.

DR: 84 left - 16 M - 75 right
Tv2: 85 left - 16 M - 74 right

The differing seat goes to Venstre in DR's prognosis and to Alternativet in Tv2's.

[YL]

TV 2's just went to Red 86 Blue 73 Mod 16, with a seat moving from Danish People's Party to Enhedslisten.

[rosin]

Update to Tv2's prognosis: Red bloc is now at 86 seats, so at striking distance to a majority.

The difference from DR is that S draws a seat from V and a seat from DF.

EDIT : Tv2 is now at 87 seats for Red bloc - an outright majority (given two seats from Greenland).

[YL]

... and now DR's goes to Red 85 Blue 74 Mod 16.  I think SF gained from Liberal Alliance.

[Logical]

TV2 projection has Red Bloc at 87!!! Assuming Greenland votes as expected that is a majority for the Red Bloc.

[mileslunn]

TV2 projection has Red Bloc at 87!!! Assuming Greenland votes as expected that is a majority for the Red Bloc.

Unless hits 88 or 85 or less I expect a recount, but yeah 87 does give Red Bloc bare majority.

[YL]

Current projections (DR/TV2)

Soc Dem 49/51
Venstre 24/23
Moderates 16/16
Denmark Dems 15/15
Socialist People's 15/15
Liberal Alliance 14/14
Conservatives 10/10
Enhedslisten 9/9
Nye Borgerlige 6/6
Radikale 6/6
Alternative 6/6
Danish People's 5/4

[rosin]

The difference between the models is that Tv2 gives a seat from V and a seat from DF to S.

Tv2's model has 87.1% counted votes - DR's has 88.6%.

EDIT: Now 88.9% and 90.4%, but still same overall numbers and weird difference.

[kaoras]

And DR now goes to 86 for red bloc

[YL]

Radikale now up to 7 and Denmark Dems down to 14 in both models, while in TV 2's a seat moved from the Soc Dems to Danish People's.

[rosin]

This gives deja-vu back to 1998 - the difference is that at that time it was Tv2 that predicted blue victory and DR red victory - as it ended with.

[crals]

More than 96% counted and the two projections are still different...

[rosin]

Both models at 99.3% and still a difference of a seat - crazy.