Early Voting thread.

[Skill and Chance]

Total Early Votes: 237,512
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,307,046

Party             Count   Percent
Democrat     60,146   57.9
Republican     26,792   25.8
None/Minor 16,961   16.3
TOTAL    103,899   100.0

North Carolina, the state with the most votes that has early statistics, is showing numbers roughly in line with 2020, if a little better for Democrats.

That's interesting, however I would also expect that the "I'm voting by mail for the rest of my life" demographic is very Dem at this point. 

[Skill and Chance]

Besides VA-02 & VA-07 there is nothing competitive to vote for in VA. I wouldn't read to much into turnout elsewhere.

Yes, the only thing on the ballot for most voters will be the US House seats, so there is little to motivate turnout in VA-08/VA-11 (the 2:1 Biden NOVA seats) or VA-09 (the 2:1 Trump SWVA seat).  IDK why Richmond area and Shenandoah Valley EV turnout  is so high, though?  None of those districts are expected to be remotely competitive (Spanberger's VA-07 pulled out of Richmond entirely).

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Not so sure about this. Is there any turnout scenario that helps Democrats, or is their victory entirely down to persuasion?

Ultra low turnout where only political enthusiasts, union members, and the uber educated vote in any significant numbers? 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/nataliehb/status/1583266296392609793
I'm thinking of shifting PA-GOV from Safe D to Tossup if this disaster for Democrats continues.

Comparing this year to 2018 is an apples to oranges comparison. In 2018 there wasn't a pandemic that incentivized people to seek alternatives and for state officials to provide said alternatives.

And in 2018 there were still rules about mail-in voting. You couldn't just request one just because you wanted to. It's a similar situation to the new GA law now. That's the type of thing that PA had pre-2020, even a bit stricter.

It looks like anyone can still request one in GA, but they have to physically print, sign, and upload the request form or mail the signed request form in.  In PA, you had to have a specific excuse to vote absentee in 2018, so that was even stricter. 

Requirements vary widely even in states where any voter can request an absentee ballot.  For example, Oklahoma allows any registered voter to request an absentee ballot, but (with specific exceptions involving e.g. nursing homes) they must be notarized. 

[Skill and Chance]

Washoe 3,5k dems, 3,4 reps. Total +1400 dems. Percentages 41,0 vs 38,2. If I'm republican in Nevada, I sure hope election day turnout is going to be huge

Doesn't the universal mail-ins make that harder?

In this case, what is meant by election day turnout?  Handing them in?

[Skill and Chance]

Regarding early voting, VA (a state that required an excuse to vote early prior to 2020) went from 63% early in 2020 to 36% early in 2021.  Many people were still quite concerned about COVID a year ago, so I would expect this to drop off even further this year.  It would be reasonable to expect a major decline in early voting in states without a pre-COVID EV/mail-in tradition.   

So I do think R's are getting ahead of themselves celebrating the drop in Dem EV from 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

Big thank you to Steve Sisolak for mailing ballots to low-propensity Trumpists!

VOY A VOTAR

I think we're going to find that certain expansions of voting do help Republicans on net.  I still think that all mail-in helps Democrats, but we are probably at the point where longer in-person early voting helps Republicans in most places, and auto-registration likely helps them in places like Nevada or Appalachia.

[Skill and Chance]

Am I the only waiting for SCOTUS to stick its nose where it doesn't belong? 

Hmmm... 'legislature thereof" stuff again?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1595508584938614784

The number of counties has since gone up to 23 as Bartow County (heavily R exurb of Atlanta) has also added Saturday voting.

I don't understand how it can be legal for some counties in a state to have polls open on a particular day, but not others?!

I mean, equal protection.