UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[TheTide]

King Brian has a very distinct form of politics; a mix of old school liberalism but talks in a way we haven’t really seen since Rowan Williams.

All indications are that his views are strikingly similar to Mountbatten's, which makes sense given everything.

Yes it’s weird that MB is written up as labour friendly in both histories of the 1940s and the 60s; despite the errrr long running rumours.

A fun game is to guess how members or the firm would have voted- believe Thatcher said the problem with the Queen was she was the type of person who votes SDP

I've heard that the Queen Mother (then the Queen) said "oh bother!" when she heard that Labour had won in 1945. She also said that the ideal form of government was "a good old-fashioned Tory one with a strong Labour opposition".

[Blair]

I believe the Queen Mum was rather right wing in a way very few since have; I’m reminded of Al’s point after London Bridge that a good starting point is that they all have deeply weird politics which is driven by the fact they’re required to be fanatical observers who never can play…

[CumbrianLefty]

Budget on 6 March, which I think gives more weight to an April or May GE.

Slightly more weight, perhaps - though its also much the same date as in 2022.

And the chances of an April election are close to zero, whatever some hacks might choose to scribble at a "slow news" time of year. IMO its 99% certain that it is either May or October to December.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Pure speculation, but I’d say a November election is likely if one takes for granted that Sunak has the vanity in him to want to make it to two full years as PM.

[MayorCarcetti]

King Brian has a very distinct form of politics; a mix of old school liberalism but talks in a way we haven’t really seen since Rowan Williams.

All indications are that his views are strikingly similar to Mountbatten's, which makes sense given everything.

Yes it’s weird that MB is written up as labour friendly in both histories of the 1940s and the 60s; despite the errrr long running rumours.

A fun game is to guess how members or the firm would have voted- believe Thatcher said the problem with the Queen was she was the type of person who votes SDP

I've heard that the Queen Mother (then the Queen) said "oh bother!" when she heard that Labour had won in 1945. She also said that the ideal form of government was "a good old-fashioned Tory one with a strong Labour opposition".

While I agree that the Queen Mum was quite likely right-wing, her disappointment could also stem from the royals famous closeness to Churchill.

TBF whatever she thought of his politics, she was reportedly on good terms with Michael Foot. Famously she commended him for his infamous donkey jacket the 1981 Remembrance Day ceremony saying it was a wise choice for the chilly conditions (Foot meanwhile was accused in the press of being disrespectful for wearing it for such an occasion)

[LabourJersey]

Budget on 6 March, which I think gives more weight to an April or May GE.

Am holding out hope that the election is either 6 June or 13 June, the Thursdays I'll be in the UK for. Though if the budget announcement is legit then April/May is a lot more likely.

[CumbrianLefty]

Pure speculation, but I’d say a November election is likely if one takes for granted that Sunak has the vanity in him to want to make it to two full years as PM.

This is actually a quite reasonable point.

And may matter at least as much as the IMO over-rated "they will want to save loads of councillors" line used as the clincher as to why they "have" to go in May. If the polls remain as they are currently, Tories are going to have big council losses even if they go for a GE simultaneously - especially given when most of the seats up next year were last fought. And even the "they will lose activists for a later GE" thing may be exaggerated - one thing the Tories are not short of even now is money, which means they can and will pay people to deliver their propaganda on the fabled doorstep.

[Torrain]

Pinch of salt, but… Shipman asserted on several occasions that Sunak wouldn’t even finalise an election date until some point in Jan/Feb 2024. Which seems like a miscalculation, if true.

We were always going to get quiet news days like this, where the chance of a spring election suddenly seemed to go up, thanks to scheduling, off-the-record comments and gaffes. At which point, Labour MPs and SPADs could brief that “everyone knows a May election is coming” - as they have today.

That way, they get to gleefully accuse Sunak of “bottling it” if the date gets pushed back to Oct/Nov/Dec, in an ironic mirror of what Cameron did to Brown after he flip-flopped on calling an early election. It’s a plausible attack too, given Sunak’s habit of taking days to agonise over staffing decisions (see the multi-day limbo that Raab, Zahawi and Braverman each spent waiting for their inevitable firings).

[ingemann]

Pure speculation, but I’d say a November election is likely if one takes for granted that Sunak has the vanity in him to want to make it to two full years as PM.

This is actually a quite reasonable point.

And may matter at least as much as the IMO over-rated "they will want to save loads of councillors" line used as the clincher as to why they "have" to go in May. If the polls remain as they are currently, Tories are going to have big council losses even if they go for a GE simultaneously - especially given when most of the seats up next year were last fought. And even the "they will lose activists for a later GE" thing may be exaggerated - one thing the Tories are not short of even now is money, which means they can and will pay people to deliver their propaganda on the fabled doorstep.

Yes, I think we should stop asking the question “what’s best for the Conservatives” and instead ask “what’s best for Sunak”. Because that’s how the time for the next election will be decided. So the factors which will decide when the election when the election happens, is whether he can find a more interesting job elsewhere, and whether there will be another coup attempt in the Conservatives. So I suspect that if none of these two things happens he will simply let the time run out.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I'm not convinced Sunak even knows the names of the Tory councillors in his seat, there's zero chance he's going to lose sleep over the number of council seats they shed in May. He is not a politician with any passion for local government.

[Pres Mike]

From 1979 to 2017 every election was in April, May, or June.

My understanding is that the 2019 election was held in December to break the deadlock in parliment? And polling was looking good for Johnson?

But otherwise not held in December to not conflict with the Christmas season?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From 1979 to 2017 every election was in April, May, or June.

My understanding is that the 2019 election was held in December to break the deadlock in parliment? And polling was looking good for Johnson?

But otherwise not held in December to not conflict with the Christmas season?

Why do you think I stopped at 2017?

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the Tories were close to calling a GE in autumn 1991, but backed out at the last minute.

Major then decided on April 9th as the new date, rather than combining it with the May local elections as many might have predicted. The official reason given at the time was Easter (which was a relatively late one in 1992) not happening bang in the middle of an election campaign - but it later emerged that the PM wanted it then because it was the anniversary of when he first met his wife Norma, and thus a "lucky omen" for him. As indeed proved to be the case, at least in the short term.....

[Silent Hunter]

So, New Year's Honours List has dropped. Along the resignation list for Liz Truss.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are an awful lot of Tory MPs with knighthoods now.

[Silent Hunter]

There are an awful lot of Tory MPs with knighthoods now.

36 to be exact going off the Parliament website, but I don't think that's been updated.

Five in Labour, one in the DUP and the Speaker.

11 Dames; five Tory, six Labour. Again, not updated.

[Conservatopia]

I'm sure it's just a reflection of how honourable Tory MPs are.

[Silent Hunter]

I'm sure it's just a reflection of how honourable Tory MPs are.

Well, they're all "Honourable". Some of them are even Right Honourable.

[TheTide]

Is he unwell, or has he just lost a lot of weight?

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1741010038192218378?s=20

[GenerationTerrorist]

Too much partying.

[Pericles]

Now there is someone who definitely needs next year to be better.

[Pericles]

Can Westminster keep the issue settled if the public verdict is so damning?
UK public overwhelmingly say Brexit has clearly failed

[Blair]

ST had done another hilariously bad piece about the Conservatives which uses a single comment from a focus group* to suggest Keir isn't seen as a PM in waiting; despite errrr all the polling since 2022 showing huge leads on leadership.

A tory 'source' even deployed the classic line used from 1997; 'Keir will say anything to get a vote... at least you know what John Mayor Sunak thinks even if you disagree...'


*if I was cynical I would note the firms who often do these focus groups were set up by former Conservative advisors; Labour of course have people who did this but it's telling they don't spend a lot of their time telling journalists was their results are showing...

[Coldstream]

Can Westminster keep the issue settled if the public verdict is so damning?
UK public overwhelmingly say Brexit has clearly failed

There would need to be a pressure campaign similar to UKIP 2013-16. Labour MP’s are essentially traumatised by what happened 16-19, and afraid of their own shadows on this issue, the majority won’t move either until they are forced or have overwhelming concrete evidence the public has changed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can Westminster keep the issue settled if the public verdict is so damning?
UK public overwhelmingly say Brexit has clearly failed

Better late than never, I guess...