UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

They can probably string things out until after a GE, even if that might still be a year away.

In the meantime, the quality of life in NI will continue to deteriorate.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1736054986188952028

[Blair]

I speak for THIGMOO in saying no thank you.

[Blair]

It's quite funny that we've had another week of stories saying the problem is that the PM is just working too hard and he's just such a details person and can't understand why people aren't giving him credit- while saying they have a great strategy at the GE to basically run against Keir's record as a barrister which ermm everyone has known since 2019!

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, the latest brilliant Levido strategy. Accompanied by yet another assertion that Labour's poll lead is "soft" that is totally uncritically written up by breathless lobby hacks.

(in the real world, Labour last led by less than 10 points in any poll in September 2022)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's this strange refusal to understand how FPTP works in practice that is just baffling. If a party drops, say, 15pts on the last election (and right now that figure would be flattering to the Conservatives as all polls show something worse, often a lot worse) and its main opponent even stays still, then that party loses a lot of seats. If its main opponent goes up a lot as well, then that party stands to get absolutely battered. It will be especially bad as electoral movement on that scale are cannot be uniform: there will be many constituencies where the party does not have 15% to lose and so will drop a lot less in those constituencies. This means that it will drop a lot more in other constituencies: if the drop is as bad as 15pts nationally then, yes, there will be a statistically significant number of constituencies where it drops by 30pts.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yes, the latest brilliant Levido strategy.

All you need to know to understand Levido is that he learned everything from his father. A property lawyer from a country town who served as a local independent councillor for a dysfunctional rural shire. Elected as a reformist after the council was dismissed when an arts/entertainment centre budget blew out from $7 million to $66 million. Resigned after being criticised for contributing to a toxic and dysfunctional environment during a fight over water fluoridation.

[TheTide]

There's this strange refusal to understand how FPTP works in practice that is just baffling. If a party drops, say, 15pts on the last election (and right now that figure would be flattering to the Conservatives as all polls show something worse, often a lot worse) and its main opponent even stays still, then that party loses a lot of seats. If its main opponent goes up a lot as well, then that party stands to get absolutely battered. It will be especially bad as electoral movement on that scale are cannot be uniform: there will be many constituencies where the party does not have 15% to lose and so will drop a lot less in those constituencies. This means that it will drop a lot more in other constituencies: if the drop is as bad as 15pts nationally then, yes, there will be a statistically significant number of constituencies where it drops by 30pts.

Indeed. Thatcher's majority increased by around 100 seats in 1983 as the Tory vote share declined by 1.5%.

[JimJamUK]

There's this strange refusal to understand how FPTP works in practice that is just baffling. If a party drops, say, 15pts on the last election (and right now that figure would be flattering to the Conservatives as all polls show something worse, often a lot worse) and its main opponent even stays still, then that party loses a lot of seats. If its main opponent goes up a lot as well, then that party stands to get absolutely battered. It will be especially bad as electoral movement on that scale are cannot be uniform: there will be many constituencies where the party does not have 15% to lose and so will drop a lot less in those constituencies. This means that it will drop a lot more in other constituencies: if the drop is as bad as 15pts nationally then, yes, there will be a statistically significant number of constituencies where it drops by 30pts.

And if you look at the places where the Conservative to Labour swing (aka the most likely to repeat in a general election) was in this/last years local elections, it wasn’t in safe Labour seats or curiously enough properly safe Conservative seats. It was in the seats ranging from ‘historically crap Labour result in 2019’ to ‘Brexity former marginals’/‘seats which Labour could now win in a landslide’.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just been struck by the observation that you can weave a few of this topics of discussion together: one drawback with relying on Australian political consultants is that for all the obvious cultural similarities between British and Australian politics, their electoral systems operate in a fundamentally different way in certain conditions as the combination of preferential voting and compulsory voting in Australia provides a cushion for large parties in deep trouble that does not exist in Britain. A degree of resilience and 'bounce' is a key feature of the Australian electoral system as a lot of unhappy supporters will turn up to vote because they'd rather not be fined and as a lot of (sometimes but not always) other unhappy supporters will cast their first preference for another party, but the vote will still count for their usual option all the same. Whereas here...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just been struck by the observation that you can weave a few of this topics of discussion together: one drawback with relying on Australian political consultants is that for all the obvious cultural similarities between British and Australian politics, their electoral systems operate in a fundamentally different way in certain conditions as the combination of preferential voting and compulsory voting in Australia provides a cushion for large parties in deep trouble that does not exist in Britain. A degree of resilience and 'bounce' is a key feature of the Australian electoral system as a lot of unhappy supporters will turn up to vote because they'd rather not be fined and as a lot of (sometimes but not always) other unhappy supporters will cast their first preference for another party, but the vote will still count for their usual option all the same. Whereas here...

A uniquely Australian phenomenon with unhappy supporters is how meaningless a protest vote can be. They'll rock up ranting and raving about how awful you are, preference everyone else first to prove the point... and end with 14. Liberal 15. Labor or vice versa. As long as they can't bring themselves to actively vote for the other party their disgruntlement is irrelevant. And importantly many low info voters vote this way without realising they're still voting for you!

This also means (non-Queensland) Australian conservative operatives are conditioned to not give a fck about upsetting the base because their votes will never actually flow to Labor. This seems to be clashing with British political realities at the moment!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just been struck by the observation that you can weave a few of this topics of discussion together: one drawback with relying on Australian political consultants is that for all the obvious cultural similarities between British and Australian politics, their electoral systems operate in a fundamentally different way

for example, Levido's basic introduction to politics was non-ideological unwarded rural shire councils, elected at-large with ~8 members by STV and a directly elected mayor. A uniquely unserious setup for local government that can literally only be found in large country towns in NSW and literally nowhere else on earth.

[Badger]

There's this strange refusal to understand how FPTP works in practice that is just baffling. If a party drops, say, 15pts on the last election (and right now that figure would be flattering to the Conservatives as all polls show something worse, often a lot worse) and its main opponent even stays still, then that party loses a lot of seats. If its main opponent goes up a lot as well, then that party stands to get absolutely battered. It will be especially bad as electoral movement on that scale are cannot be uniform: there will be many constituencies where the party does not have 15% to lose and so will drop a lot less in those constituencies. This means that it will drop a lot more in other constituencies: if the drop is as bad as 15pts nationally then, yes, there will be a statistically significant number of constituencies where it drops by 30pts.

Indeed. Thatcher's majority increased by around 100 seats in 1983 as the Tory vote share declined by 1.5%.

I mean, surely that's not terribly surprising given the alliance came close to Labor's popular vote share?

[TheTide]

Just been struck by the observation that you can weave a few of this topics of discussion together: one drawback with relying on Australian political consultants is that for all the obvious cultural similarities between British and Australian politics, their electoral systems operate in a fundamentally different way in certain conditions as the combination of preferential voting and compulsory voting in Australia provides a cushion for large parties in deep trouble that does not exist in Britain. A degree of resilience and 'bounce' is a key feature of the Australian electoral system as a lot of unhappy supporters will turn up to vote because they'd rather not be fined and as a lot of (sometimes but not always) other unhappy supporters will cast their first preference for another party, but the vote will still count for their usual option all the same. Whereas here...

A uniquely Australian phenomenon with unhappy supporters is how meaningless a protest vote can be. They'll rock up ranting and raving about how awful you are, preference everyone else first to prove the point... and end with 14. Liberal 15. Labor or vice versa. As long as they can't bring themselves to actively vote for the other party their disgruntlement is irrelevant. And importantly many low info voters vote this way without realising they're still voting for you!

This also means (non-Queensland) Australian conservative operatives are conditioned to not give a fck about upsetting the base because their votes will never actually flow to Labor. This seems to be clashing with British political realities at the moment!

Might be stating the obvious here, but I wonder if one of the reasons why most of the 'protest' parties are named after their leader (Hanson, Palmer, Xenophon, Katter etc) is to make them easily identifiable to the chunk of the electorate (probably around a third of it) which only votes to avoid a fine and probably doesn't think about the issues and ideologies too much. I suppose it's also the reason why all parties (including the major ones) tend to have the (usually) ugly mugs of their candidates prominently displayed outside of the polling booths on election day.

[Flyersfan232]

the uk should have it general election on the same day as the presidential election for memes

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1736846560325927146

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1736846560325927146

Though there is a possible get out here if Sunak is so so inclined - even if he delays until the last legal date (January 23rd 2025) he still has to *call* an election in 2024.

[Torrain]

Yeah - and if he gets to Oct/Nov next year, and decides to wait until the very last minute, things are likely going… poorly. Certainly, badly enough that the narrative won’t dwell on a broken promise made at a Lobby Christmas drinks event.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The electorate want an election today. They'll likely be even angrier if they have to wait more than a year to tell the government where they can stick it, but you can only lose somebody's vote once.

[Torrain]

Redirecting levelling up funding from Northern transport links, to flatter motorists in London?

Future political historians will have a *field day* with the political ramifications of the 2023 Uxbridge by-election.
https://twitter.com/transportgovuk/status/1737401590808543620

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hiding in the corner - A Network North Project!

[CumbrianLefty]

the uk should have it general election on the same day as the presidential election for memes

We haven't had a non-Thursday GE for over a century, sorry.

[YL]

Hiding in the corner - A Network North Project!

I feel that that image could be used unaltered in a Labour leaflet in Northern marginals.

[YL]

In very minor defection news, Andrew Bridgen has left Reclaim and is an independent MP again.  Reading his statement does not exactly make it clear why.

[TheTide]

In very minor defection news, Andrew Bridgen has left Reclaim and is an independent MP again.  Reading his statement does not exactly make it clear why.

Burned his Bridgens.