UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The big difference is essentially quite basic: millions of people have just lost thousands of pounds from their pension pots and they will not get it back. Anyone trying to buy a house at the moment (we're obviously well into the thousands here) will have been screwed over quite terribly and in a life-changing manner, and anyone with a mortgage will be looking at the looming certainty of vaulting interest rates with serious fear. Material factors move polls like nothing else.

[brucejoel99]

💀

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432

[Torie]

The big difference is essentially quite basic: millions of people have just lost thousands of pounds from their pension pots and they will not get it back. Anyone trying to buy a house at the moment (we're obviously well into the thousands here) will have been screwed over quite terribly and in a life-changing manner, and anyone with a mortgage will be looking at the looming certainty of vaulting interest rates with serious fear. Material factors move polls like nothing else.

Are fixed rate home mortgages not a thing in the UK? The US has a quite scandalous way of subsidizing home purchases, and even second home purchases, because basically the Feds buy these mortgages, and assume all of the interest rate risk. It is the greatest subsidy to the middle and upper middle class, and the top 1% known to man.

[LabourJersey]

💀

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432

How could the parliamentary Tories appoint a PM though? Wouldn't have to totally reform the Party bylaws? Or is that easier than I'm thinking it is?

[brucejoel99]

💀

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432

How could the parliamentary Tories appoint a PM though? Wouldn't have to totally reform the Party bylaws? Or is that easier than I'm thinking it is?

Currently, they can't, as the requirement that (at least) the top-2 candidates go through to a rank-&-file membership vote is a provision of the Tory constitution, which is hard af to amend (1/3rd of senior party activists & 1/3rd of MPs each hold a de-facto veto), so the only way rn for a leadership contest to not go through to the membership will be if it's uncontested.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Curious- why do people think that the poll collapse has been so large?

Bernard castle, the 2008 financial crash and other such events didn’t cause such a huge and sudden shift- is it the 45p/bankers bonus angle? The impact on pensions/mortgage rates?

I think there's a reasonably significant section of the electorate whose default position is that the Tories are not very likeable but that they are good at running the economy.  Black Wednesday in 1992 damaged the Tories' standing a lot with these people, and I suspect that's part of it again.

Truss also seems to be a remarkably poor media performer.

Yeah this. The Conservative Party brand is "bastards who look out for their rich mates, but are competent to keep the economy ticking over." The mini budget was a double whammy that played into the former and cut against the latter. And the main worry swing voters have about Labour is that they'd spend too much and wreck the economy - if it looks like a Conservative government is doing that then suddenly the opposition aren't as scary.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

Actually I was thinking because of that. They could misread the entire electorate so much they think they can fix it by putting a POC in charge, since obviously no person could have an issue with their policies.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

Actually I was thinking because of that. They could misread the entire electorate so much they think they can fix it by putting a POC in charge, since obviously no person could have an issue with their policies.

I, again, have to believe that the MPs, at least, aren't THAT stupid and extreme (it's pretty clear that the membership is), but while we're on this topic, I learned the other day that Kwarteng not only is the first black Chancellor but was the first black full Cabinet member (as in, not "also attending...") EVER when he was appointed BEIS Secretary in January of last year. There have been all-white slates of full Cabinet members as recently as 2014. That is pathetic, even for a country much whiter than the US or Canada.

[YL]

💀

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432

How could the parliamentary Tories appoint a PM though? Wouldn't have to totally reform the Party bylaws? Or is that easier than I'm thinking it is?

Currently, they can't, as the requirement that (at least) the top-2 candidates go through to a rank-&-file membership vote is a provision of the Tory constitution, which is hard af to amend (1/3rd of senior party activists & 1/3rd of MPs each hold a de-facto veto), so the only way rn for a leadership contest to not go through to the membership will be if it's uncontested.

The 1922 Committee were able to set a nomination threshold, though, so perhaps they just set it so high that they think exactly one candidate will be able to make it.

If the system were the same as in July, I fear that you know who would be favoured to make a comeback.  However, at the moment Sunak is second favourite (after Starmer) to be next PM with the bookies.

[Torrain]

Now that the 45% tax rate abolition is dead, the political focus seems to be shifting to benefits. Based on public statements by the Chancellor and Housing/Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clark, Government plans to fund some of the new tax cuts by cutting or freezing benefits.

That would require fresh legislation to be introduced and passed through the Commons well before the end of the financial year in April. I just don’t see how that’s politically feasible in this environment, between the cost of energy, and the sudden public affection for the Labour Party.

The chair of the One Nation Conservative group, Damien Green, came out against it yesterday, and Penny Mordaunt has indicated this morning that she opposes any tinkering with next years benefit numbers - in a Times Radio interview that came right after Truss defended to the policy on LBC. I find it hard to see how Truss isn't forced into a u-turn over this too, if the Cabinet is publicly AWOL already. She's currently very supportive of the move, but, well, look at yesterday...

“I can’t vote to cut benefits during a cost of living crisis” is a simple message, and is probably quite appealing to a lot of red-wall MPs under the current conditions.

[TheTide]

What's the point of the Truss premiership at this point? Her policy agenda is being shredded. If she were a reassuring and likeable John Major figure then that would be something she'd have going for her, but she isn't.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm starting to think Truss will probably be axed soon, at least before the end of 2023. If they have a full leadership election I think Badenoch is the heavy favorite, but an MP vote probably goes to Mordaunt (?) or (God forbid) BoJo 2.0

[EastAnglianLefty]

The big difference is essentially quite basic: millions of people have just lost thousands of pounds from their pension pots and they will not get it back. Anyone trying to buy a house at the moment (we're obviously well into the thousands here) will have been screwed over quite terribly and in a life-changing manner, and anyone with a mortgage will be looking at the looming certainty of vaulting interest rates with serious fear. Material factors move polls like nothing else.

Are fixed rate home mortgages not a thing in the UK? The US has a quite scandalous way of subsidizing home purchases, and even second home purchases, because basically the Feds buy these mortgages, and assume all of the interest rate risk. It is the greatest subsidy to the middle and upper middle class, and the top 1% known to man.

Fixed-rate mortgages are a thing, but usually for a maximum of 5 years, and that means that there are millions of people whose mortgage fix is coming to an end pretty much every year.

[Pericles]

I'm starting to think Truss will probably be axed soon, at least before the end of 2023. If they have a full leadership election I think Badenoch is the heavy favorite, but an MP vote probably goes to Mordaunt (?) or (God forbid) BoJo 2.0

Maybe Mordaunt is making a play by saying benefits should rise with inflation, winking to MPs that she would be different from Trussonomics.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm starting to think Truss will probably be axed soon, at least before the end of 2023. If they have a full leadership election I think Badenoch is the heavy favorite, but an MP vote probably goes to Mordaunt (?) or (God forbid) BoJo 2.0

Maybe Mordaunt is making a play by saying benefits should rise with inflation, winking to MPs that she would be different from Trussonomics.

That's the issue with appointing extremely ambitious clowns to cabinet, but I digress.

[ingemann]

💀

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432

How could the parliamentary Tories appoint a PM though? Wouldn't have to totally reform the Party bylaws? Or is that easier than I'm thinking it is?

Nothing stopping them from just appointing a new PM if they have enough votes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

Actually I was thinking because of that. They could misread the entire electorate so much they think they can fix it by putting a POC in charge, since obviously no person could have an issue with their policies.

I, again, have to believe that the MPs, at least, aren't THAT stupid and extreme (it's pretty clear that the membership is), but while we're on this topic, I learned the other day that Kwarteng not only is the first black Chancellor but was the first black full Cabinet member (as in, not "also attending...") EVER when he was appointed BEIS Secretary in January of last year. There have been all-white slates of full Cabinet members as recently as 2014. That is pathetic, even for a country much whiter than the US or Canada.

That may be true of the Tories, but I'm certain Labour had a few.

[Cassius]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

Actually I was thinking because of that. They could misread the entire electorate so much they think they can fix it by putting a POC in charge, since obviously no person could have an issue with their policies.

I, again, have to believe that the MPs, at least, aren't THAT stupid and extreme (it's pretty clear that the membership is), but while we're on this topic, I learned the other day that Kwarteng not only is the first black Chancellor but was the first black full Cabinet member (as in, not "also attending...") EVER when he was appointed BEIS Secretary in January of last year. There have been all-white slates of full Cabinet members as recently as 2014. That is pathetic, even for a country much whiter than the US or Canada.

That may be true of the Tories, but I'm certain Labour had a few.

Indeed, I believe the honour of first black cabinet minister went to Paul Boateng as Chief Secretary to the Treasury back in the Blair years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I, again, have to believe that the MPs, at least, aren't THAT stupid and extreme (it's pretty clear that the membership is), but while we're on this topic, I learned the other day that Kwarteng not only is the first black Chancellor but was the first black full Cabinet member (as in, not "also attending...") EVER when he was appointed BEIS Secretary in January of last year. There have been all-white slates of full Cabinet members as recently as 2014. That is pathetic, even for a country much whiter than the US or Canada.

That may be true of the Tories, but I'm certain Labour had a few.

Yes, Paul Boateng was a 'full' Cabinet Minister when he was Chief Secretary to the Treasury, which was a 'full' (i.e. salaried) Cabinet post under Blair and Brown, but was downgraded to an unsalaried 'also attending...' post by Cameron after he won his majority in 2015 and has not been upgraded back subsequently.

[Torrain]

Even if you wanted to quibble about whether Chief Sec to the Treasury counts for some reason, Valerie Amos was made International Development Secretary in 2003.

[CumbrianLefty]

💀

Well given "Chopper's" usual level of accuracy, might even be a much needed boost for Truss

[JimJamUK]

Curious- why do people think that the poll collapse has been so large?

The single defining advantage of the Conservatives over Labour post-2008 has been the economy. Labour’s advantage disappeared under Brown, collapsed further under Miliband, and didn’t recover under Corbyn. Whatever else the median voter thinks about the Conservatives, they have up til now thought that they were more competent on the economy than Labour and it’s very hard to vote for a party you think will do worse on the economy. The budget has destroyed that hard earned reputation. The mini meltdown in the financial markets was obviously the biggest factor, but the idea that the government is going to take a big risk borrowing shed loads of money to cut taxes for high earners while ordinary people worry about their bills was just awful optics. Many people accepted, if not outright supported, an austere approach to government finances that was presented as necessary for economic stability, but the Truss budget was neither and instead just pure electoral poison.

[Blair]

She is very stupid isn’t she?

https://mobile.twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1577269259696209921