UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Before we move on to Truss I just want to say at the end of the Boris Johnson era, what an anticlimax that was. I honestly thought Johnson would end up being a fairly significant PM, especially after the 2019 election, but not really.

These things can be hard to judge. Maybe his exceptionally strong support for Ukraine will be seen as pivotal in the historiographies of 2050 or 2100 or 2500.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Will Badenoch get something? I remember Truss hinted at making her Foreign Minister a month ago, lord help us all.

Close. International Trade.

This is a terrible Cabinet. Wallace, who is of course a holdover, is the only person it in who I can imagine any pre-1979 (arguably even pre-2010) Tory PM trusting with anything more substantial than a random sinecure. Maybe JRM too, but in a bad way.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Michelle Donelan has been made Culture Secretary. Guess she’ll get to be in the Cabinet for more than 24 hours after all! She’s got to be one of the unquestioned upgrades because, after Dorries, the only way is up.

Uhh… so where does this put Dorries?

The Lords. I sh**t you not.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

SKY just played the clip of Sir Lindsay Hoyle (Speaker) reading a statement expressing Parliament's thoughts about the situation. 

It occurred to me that the last time a Speaker (presumably) gave a statement under those circumstances was Winston Churchill, a pretty striking testament to the Queen's longevity. 

William Morrison, not Churchill, but it was in Churchill's premiership.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Queen is dead.

God Save the King.

The putz'll need it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Charles isn't any more 'tainted' as a name than George - the last two Georges would generally be seen to have been alright, but none of the four previous ones would exactly be seen as setting particularly auspicious examples, if for different reasons. The main reason why it wasn't chosen as a name for a long time was because it was associated with the Jacobite cause, but that's an extremely distant memory now. The one name that is essentially forbidden is Arthur, and that's for (rationally?) superstitious reasons as Prince Arthurs have a habit of dying young.

Also John, partially due to the terrible performance of the only previous one, and partially for the same reason as Arthur.

Stephen as well, potentially?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

And talking like the crassest variety of American "construction company founder or semiretired software engineer who had a windfall IPO in the nineties, ran directly for the Senate or a governorship fifteen years later, and won" while he does it. "A great day for freedom"? Isn't this guy supposed to be some kind of Oxbridge historian?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's now uncertainty over when (or if) a vote will now be held on abolishing the 45% tax rate. The Telegraph is reporting that the vote will be pushed back until after the November statement from Kwarteng - but I think we'll probably get a better idea about the latest development from the Chancellor's media round tomorrow.  

As of this evening we have a minimum of 14 declared rebels - around 40% of the required MPs to defeat the bill.

• Robert Largan
• James Cartlidge
• Steve Double
• Sir Charles Walker
• Julian Smith
• Simon Hoare
• Michael Gove
• Mel Stride
• Damian Green
• Richard Graham
• Steve Brine
• Danny Kruger
• Maria Caulfield
• Grant Shapps

Not exactly a usual-suspects list of wets (or even "remoaners"), which should tell you something in and of itself.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The finger-pointing has commenced.

Penny Mordaunt at a late night conference event: “Our policy is great but our comms is sh*t”.

Pippa Crerar: Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact,  Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.

It has been claimed by some who were there that Penny Dreadful didn't actually mean that literally. In other words, a not too subtle dig at the policies as well.....

It’s hard to tell from the clip - she’s hamming it up enough that it could go either way. Not a great look though. I’m sure it’s not the most damaging thing to come out of a fringe event, but it’s an impressive bit of backbiting whether she’s being sarcastic or genuine.

This makes me like Mordaunt more tbh.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who is favored in that case? Badenoch?

I have to think that even this Tory party will know better than to replace Thatcher 2: The Re-Thatching with Thatcher 3: Once More, with Melanin?

Actually I was thinking because of that. They could misread the entire electorate so much they think they can fix it by putting a POC in charge, since obviously no person could have an issue with their policies.

I, again, have to believe that the MPs, at least, aren't THAT stupid and extreme (it's pretty clear that the membership is), but while we're on this topic, I learned the other day that Kwarteng not only is the first black Chancellor but was the first black full Cabinet member (as in, not "also attending...") EVER when he was appointed BEIS Secretary in January of last year. There have been all-white slates of full Cabinet members as recently as 2014. That is pathetic, even for a country much whiter than the US or Canada.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

I know that by-elections are not nearly as much of a national barometer in the UK as special elections in the US, but if we read the entrails from recent by-elections, with a grain of salt or otherwise, it does seem like the Lib Dems are finally regaining credibility as a tactical "anyone but the Tories" option in rural Southern and Welsh seats without much of a natural Labour vote.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How is Truss acting more ideologically, and less responsibly than Rees-Mogg? Refusing to approve a simple, comparatively cheap campaign to educate the public about saving energy, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, with looming gas shortages, just feels like ethical and political malpractice.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1578135758040403971

...what is she ideologically opposed to, PSAs?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How is Truss acting more ideologically, and less responsibly than Rees-Mogg? Refusing to approve a simple, comparatively cheap campaign to educate the public about saving energy, in the midst of a cost of living crisis, with looming gas shortages, just feels like ethical and political malpractice.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1578135758040403971

...what is she ideologically opposed to, PSAs?

The way it’s being described, Truss has engaged fully with the GOP-style “It’s not the governments job to tell you what to do” talking point, and is refusing to fund the campaign on that basis. The government source quoted in most articles about it explicitly say she thinks the campaign is too “interventionist”.

Johnson was said to have similar laissez faire instincts (there were apparently some fierce discussions about whether to lock-down over COVID, especially the first time), but could be won over if the argument was made well enough.

I see.

Perhaps Truss is just committing to the bit. This could be her big break in the improv comedy world.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And, on cue, here’s Mercer:

I am unsure of this Government's determination to row back on all the advances we have made for looking after our veterans and those who serve. Cost of rail travel on Remembrance Day 'too great'?

Tell that to Frankie from my unit. He's currently fighting COVID and multiple infections as one of our most disabled war veterans from Afghan. Last night those at his bedside asked me for a late night voice message they could play him to keep him fighting...

Tell him the cost of a few rail fares is too high for those who sacrifice - still 14 years on. Without them there wouldn't be a f**king railway, a Nation or a Remembrance Day for that matter.

The original is linked here, but I’ve transcribed it to bleep the profanity for Atlas: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1578459660280963072

The use of vulgarity in an official communication from a former Cabinet attendee strikes me as, uh, unusual (but called for!).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1578480177499119616?s=20&t=vF8DUm5p8jv6...

Foreign florists? I see the Tory government is finally standing up to the true villains of this world - the Dutch!

I knew I couldn't trust the Dutch! They like tulips too much for their own good!

No one who calls whipped cream "slagroom" with a straight face is welcome in my house.

That word sounds like it comes out of a leaked dossier on the next Tory sex scandal. Secret slagroom at party conference?

I hear the secret strip club in the basement of CCHQ is called "The Profumo Slagroom"

Where Truss and Kwarteng practice at least three or four of the dozen or so meanings Wiktionary gives for the phrase "the English vice", I'm sure.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

From this evening's audience:
Truss: Your majesty, it's lovely to see you again.
Charles: So you've come back again
Truss: It's a great pleasure.
Charles: Dear oh dear. Anyway...

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1580264025648431105

To think his mother got Churchill as her first Prime Minister and, out of all the flawed mediocrities that have been PM's recently, he gets Truss out of all people. On the bright side, he gets to be the charming one for however short those audiences last.

Yeah, even lost-his-mojo postwar Churchill who was only good at housing policy looks like his mid-1940 self compared to this clown.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1580594534349578240?s=21&t=hkk5l-X...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don’t understand why the Chancellor isn’t resigning?

His entire budget and more so the economic policy of the Government has collapsed. This is very close to being an issue that makes Governments fall.

He seems like a true believer. Economic ultra-rightism never fails, only is failed.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

As a historical curio, if the unthinkable does happen and Truss does get rolled, this will be the first ‘Year of the Three PM’s’ since 1868, where we started off with the Earl of Derby, followed up with Disraeli and ended with Gladstone in office at year end (although there were three ministries in 1886, with a brief Gladstone ministry sandwiched between two led by Lord Salisbury).

Total side note but how do you feel about Salisbury? I assume there's a lot more to the guy than "generic Victorian Tory marquess" given that he was Attlee's immediate no-brainer choice for best PM of his lifetime, and I'd be interested in hearing a take on him from someone on the British right.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580868139692134400

Last thirty seconds of Brief Encounter playing out in the Truss–O'Leary household this afternoon, I'm sure.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Something that I think speaks to the utter lack of gravitas in Parliament these days compared to in temps jadis is that Hunt is thought of as a party grandee, a greybeard, etc. despite being fifty-five years old and in Parliament since 2005. I've posted in the past about the much shorter Commons tenures of recent PMs, but the fact that he's also younger than Kamala Harris, Mads Mikkelsen, Enrico Letta, and at least a few bikini models really drives the point home.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

People aren't going to just forget about the time their mortgage payments abruptly skyrocketed.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

Foreign Secretary being more of a messaging and narrativizing role?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

Foreign Secretary being more of a messaging and narrativizing role?

Yes, in the end it's still a diplomatic post, which requires a very different set of skills.

Interesting. The State Department works very differently, as Rex Tillerson learned the hard way, but I had heard before that the Foreign Office had a much starker division between the political leadership and the career foreign service nuts and bolts.