UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Antonio the Sixth]

RIP.

Can't say I have any particular affection for her (even leaving aside my thoughts on monarchy as a concept), but she's undoubtedly been a staple of world politics for so long it's hard to imagine her not being around.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank God we didn't get another George. This is such an overused regal name and as a product of the travesty that was the Hanoverian succession it really doesn't deserve that honor. Hopefully the British monarchy will end with either a King Charles or a King William - both would be excellent historical rhymes in their own ways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1573018690638987267?s=21&t=sZXljWcP7a...

Good idea, but that would first require creating regional governments with meaningful powers in England.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beautiful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Doesn’t she look tired?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The very funny thing we forget is that they’ve lost 5 MPs through by elections and defections already- they’re not going to want to lose more before they’ve done planning reform…

Nine including those who've lost the whip. Started with a majority of 87, now 69.

nice

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Times is reporting discussions of a Sunak/Mordaunt “joint ticket” to replace Truss.

Mordaunt should be the one leading it. Sunak discredited himself by losing to Truss - he had his shot and he blew it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jeremy Hunt? Seriously??

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1582324631129665538
Very unbased:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1582334327085355010

It seems to me that Mordaunt is the obvious choice. She's the candidate with the highest MP support who didn't lose a membership vote to Truss, and while she has her detractors in the party, she's not as strongly associated with a specific faction of the party as any other big name. It would also neutralize the (admittedly hard to take seriously) "you're only knifing her because she's a woman!" line by Truss dead-enders.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For all the Italy comparisons, note that Truss’ tenure was considerably shorter than that of the average Italian PM.

Actually, for the entire history of the Italian republic, only one PM lasted less than 100 days in office: Amintore Fanfani, during his very first tenure in 1954. He lasted only 22 days in office, so he still beats Truss, but that was very much the exception rather than the rule.

Truss' tenure is more in line with the Fourth French Republic, which was far more unstable than Italy ever was. Even then, it had 21 PMs in 12 years, so an average tenure of about 200 days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For all the Italy comparisons, note that Truss’ tenure was considerably shorter than that of the average Italian PM.

Actually, for the entire history of the Italian republic, only one PM lasted less than 100 days in office: Amintore Fanfani, during his very first tenure in 1954. He lasted only 22 days in office, so he still beats Truss, but that was very much the exception rather than the rule.

Truss' tenure is more in line with the Fourth French Republic, which was far more unstable than Italy ever was. Even then, it had 21 PMs in 12 years, so an average tenure of about 200 days.

Amintore Fanfani's last government in 1987 (do not research).

102 days according to Wikipedia

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it looks like Brady is saying there will be a membership vote. If that's the case, wouldn't the process drag out for a couple months like it did with BoJo? Or can they actually speed up the calendar to a more reasonable time frame? I don't think the country can handle two months of Lame Duck Liz.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice parabolic curve...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1583074397765918721?s=20&t=GRll-jjZkh...

Bit late to the party?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jonathan Pie has weighed in:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently the syndrome  of anonymous spin doctors has crossed the Pond.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/penny-mordaunt-backers-counting-on-stop-sunak-mps-if-boris-johnson-falls

““There’s a lot of people who still just hate each other – that has not changed since the summer,” said a Mordaunt ally. “It’s only intensified. That is why Penny could emerge as the genuine unity candidate. There’s Boris people who look at Rishi and just really can’t stomach him and won’t want to serve under him – and I doubt they are going to be quiet in any situation in which Rishi is prime minister. She has none of the baggage. If not first, she is everyone’s number two choice. Her private numbers are much higher than publicly listed.”

Aside from the last sentence, it's hard to disagree with any of that. While Sunak is clearly less of a political suicide for the Tories than bringing back BoJo, it's far from a safe choice, given that we know the ERG types will be building barricades from day 1. I said already a couple days ago that it shocked me that there wasn't a genuine effort by both sides to find a candidate they could live with, and I'm still surprised by that. It really seems that every faction would rather see the party burn that give up their shot at power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The first cabinet exit is the most predictable one - JRM.

RIP to a real one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how calls for Party Unity are now always immediately followed by this, hahaha.

If Tory MPs wanted unity, maybe they shouldn't have picked the guy who just lost to Truss less than two months ago. The fact that despite this Sunak immediately emerged as a frontrunner (and that the main alternative was someone even more flagrantly poisonous to any semblance of unity) shows that factionalism within the party has reached a breaking point that, amazingly, even Labour didn't reach in the worst days of Late Corbynism. Truly impressive.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1584945215634563081

Isn't that exactly how House of Cards begins?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1584945215634563081

Isn't that exactly how House of Cards begins?

On the one hand yes, but on the other hand Francis Urquhart was a respected Chief Whip, lecturer in Italian renaissance politics and former Guards officer (and of course, a fictional character), whilst Penny Mordaunt is an ex-PR hack and magician’s assistant.

I admit I'm a bit partial toward her because I feel like she was unfairly shafted back in September, and she does strike me as proposing something a bit more interesting for the party than "BoJo is our Lord and Savior and can do no wrong!!" or "back to business chaps!". But that said, yeah, she didn't exactly cover herself in glory lately.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I thought Sunak did fine - not quite Cameron-level but better than the average Truss or May PMQs. Felt Starmer did well - but then again, with the Braverman re-appointment it was all open-goals for him this week. All subjective though.

"The only time he ran in a competitive election, he got trounced by the former Prime Minister, who herself got beaten by a lettuce" was such a killer line too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume this is an awkward situation for everyone involved. Braverman herself is an icon of the right of the party, but other people of similar persuasion might want to take shots at her as a way of getting to Rishi. Lose-lose factional infighting at its best.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Relevant:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1585662618634784769

RISHIMENTUM

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1587051559011160064?s=20&t=gJ_cbmop_kF...

LMFAO.

oh my God PLEASE

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1587746521457500160
Glad he’s going - but dispiriting that it took the threat of Johnson upstaging him to get Sunak to change his mind. It all feels like an unforced error - produced by an inflated fear of his own right-leaning MPs, much like the Braverman reappointment. Wonder whether it’s inexperience, or whether the ERG are making credible threats to kneecap his government, given how much leeway he’s given them.

Given the behavior of right-wing MPs so far, I'd say the fear is well justified. These people have shown they're fully willing to destroy the party to score factional gains.