Election models megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting 538 article on how betting markets have diverged from the major election models recently, specifically that the betting markets seem to have priced in a much larger movement toward Republicans than the models have.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election/

[Ferguson97]

Interesting 538 article on how betting markets have diverged from the major election models recently, specifically that the betting markets seem to have priced in a much larger movement toward Republicans than the models have.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election/

Historically how accurately do betting markets perform vs models?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Interesting 538 article on how betting markets have diverged from the major election models recently, specifically that the betting markets seem to have priced in a much larger movement toward Republicans than the models have.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election/

Historically how accurately do betting markets perform vs models?

The betting markets thought Trump had a 60%+ chance of victory on election night after the first few hours. They laughably overreact to everything.

[2016]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

Something fascinating about this poll-set is the in-depth questioning about voters' economic concerns:

Economy is getting...
Better 15%
Worse 65%
Staying the same 20%

What has caused higher prices?
Supply & manufacturing issues:  63%
Global factors: 58%
Democratic policies: 47%

Democratic policies have:
Harmed economy: 48%
Helped economy: 29%
No difference/not sure: 23%

Inflation: Biden administration
Could be doing more: 63%
Is doing all it can: 32%

Biden responsible for the economy?
A lot: 45%
Some: 26%
A little: 20%
Not at all: 8%

[2016]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

Something fascinating about this poll-set is the in-depth questioning about voters' economic concerns:

Economy is getting...
Better 15%
Worse 65%
Staying the same 20%

What has caused higher prices?
Supply & manufacturing issues:  63%
Global factors: 58%
Democratic policies: 47%

Democratic policies have:
Harmed economy: 48%
Helped economy: 29%
No difference/not sure: 23%

Inflation: Biden administration
Could be doing more: 63%
Is doing all it can: 32%

Biden responsible for the economy?
A lot: 45%
Some: 26%
A little: 20%
Not at all: 8%

These are terrible Numbers for the D's and Biden when it comes to the Economy. And I think the Economy will eventually decide the House Vote. It will not be an R-Wave BUT it will sure be heck enough to flip the House over.

[Ferguson97]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

This would be a historically bad result for the GOP

[wbrocks67]

The CBS model actually has D+1 in the GCB among RVs.

However, in the article they explain that they model that <45 year olds only will make up 25% of the electorate, hence the LV model showing R+2 then.

They have a tool that shows a GOP turnout surge and if <45 year olds vote at 2018 levels. Seems more likely that LV models are not picking up "less likely" young voters imo.

[Progressive Pessimist]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

This would be a historically bad result for the GOP

I would take that.

[Person Man]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

This would be a historically bad result for the GOP

I would take that.

If the House is really this close, Democrats are taking it back if they are winning in 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

This would be a historically bad result for the GOP

I would take that.

If the House is really this close, Democrats are taking it back if they are winning in 2024.

Exactly. It also probably bodes well for the Senate.

[Person Man]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

Something fascinating about this poll-set is the in-depth questioning about voters' economic concerns:

Economy is getting...
Better 15%
Worse 65%
Staying the same 20%

What has caused higher prices?
Supply & manufacturing issues:  63%
Global factors: 58%
Democratic policies: 47%

Democratic policies have:
Harmed economy: 48%
Helped economy: 29%
No difference/not sure: 23%

Inflation: Biden administration
Could be doing more: 63%
Is doing all it can: 32%

Biden responsible for the economy?
A lot: 45%
Some: 26%
A little: 20%
Not at all: 8%

People know things are bad, but because Republicans are running the show as much as Democrats, this is the biggest up and down vote we are going to get on platforms since 2012, if not 2004...or even further back. This is definitely not a referendum on personality and another poll show has shown that Trump is an equal motivator as Biden is.

[It’s so Joever]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

This would be a historically bad result for the GOP

You are pretending like an R+2 ballot would not still be enough to net the republicans a good number of house seats and the senate and a bunch of governorships.

[2016]

Noticing a Trend in the Biden JA in Battleground Senate Races

NC - 38 %
OH - 39 %

Terrible!!!

[Ferguson97]

This would be a historically bad result for the GOP

You are pretending like an R+2 ballot would not still be enough to net the republicans a good number of house seats and the senate and a bunch of governorships.

No I'm not.

All I am saying is that a 2% lead in the house popular vote would not be as strong of a result for the challenging party as other midterms have been.

[wbrocks67]

Noticing a Trend in the Biden JA in Battleground Senate Races

NC - 38 %
OH - 39 %

Terrible!!!

39% for Ohio is believable, 38% for NC is a bit extreme.

Biden's average approval is about -8/9 right now on 538, and Ohio was 12% to the left of the nation. So you'd expect it to be about -20 right now given that. So his -17 approval in Ohio right now is actually a bit better than you'd expect, given that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is interesting: Echelon Insights has an interactive tool that provides an estimated district-level breakdown of turnout by demographic groups, as well as totals by state.

https://echeloninsights.com/turnout-2022/

They also predict total turnout for this year's elections will be 125,655,745.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They said Student loan Discharge have 8M applications in 2 days that's why it's called voting not polls as I said it's clearly a 65/60M vote not 80/75M vote Eday but we won red states in 2018 and not in 2020 and we didn't win 80M votes in 2018 I don't know how that can happen but it did, that's why it's a 303 map with wave insurance and we should wait for the results and not just go by polls the same polls showed us losing in AK and NY 19 but we are gonna win 303 at the very least plus you have Insurrection

[Crumpets]

538 has Democrats' odds of holding the Senate at 63%, which is their lowest number since August 23rd. It's a bit odd because the Classic and Light versions of the model still have their odds higher - 70% and 75% respectively, and the models (I think) are supposed to converge by election day, although the other models also have Democrats' chances decreasing over the last couple of weeks. But I'm not really sure what could be driving the Deluxe model specifically to be so bearish on their chances when I think the only difference it has with the Classic model is experts' ratings and I don't remember any huge shifts in the ratings to Republicans in recent weeks, just maybe a few bad polls which should show up in the other models too.

[wbrocks67]

538 has Democrats' odds of holding the Senate at 63%, which is their lowest number since August 23rd. It's a bit odd because the Classic and Light versions of the model still have their odds higher - 70% and 75% respectively, and the models (I think) are supposed to converge by election day, although the other models also have Democrats' chances decreasing over the last couple of weeks. But I'm not really sure what could be driving the Deluxe model specifically to be so bearish on their chances when I think the only difference it has with the Classic model is experts' ratings and I don't remember any huge shifts in the ratings to Republicans in recent weeks, just maybe a few bad polls which should show up in the other models too.

I think it's probably the culmination of NV getting super tight in the model, and the GOP chances in OH, NC, and WI increasing. Since AZ and PA haven't really changed much, nor has NH, and of course GA has gotten better for Dems.

[Person Man]

538 has Democrats' odds of holding the Senate at 63%, which is their lowest number since August 23rd. It's a bit odd because the Classic and Light versions of the model still have their odds higher - 70% and 75% respectively, and the models (I think) are supposed to converge by election day, although the other models also have Democrats' chances decreasing over the last couple of weeks. But I'm not really sure what could be driving the Deluxe model specifically to be so bearish on their chances when I think the only difference it has with the Classic model is experts' ratings and I don't remember any huge shifts in the ratings to Republicans in recent weeks, just maybe a few bad polls which should show up in the other models too.

I think it's probably the culmination of NV getting super tight in the model, and the GOP chances in OH, NC, and WI increasing. Since AZ and PA haven't really changed much, nor has NH, and of course GA has gotten better for Dems.

I mean, the stock market is on the mend, oil actually is now down to around $80 a barrel, and unemployment still looks OK. Maybe people are becoming Republican because they fell richer than they usually do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 12):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 74 (-3)
538 Classic 70 (-4)
JHK 64.0 (-2.9)
538 Deluxe 62 (-4)
DDHQ 61.4 (-5.4)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 80.7 (+6.
DDHQ 77.8 (+2.1)
538 Classic 73 (+2)
538 Deluxe 73 (+2)
538 Lite 67 (+3)
Economist 65 (nc)

Significant movement toward the Republicans since the last update.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 6):

AZ D+6.0 (-0.7)
CO D+7.9 (nc)
FL R+4.6 (nc)
GA D+3.7 (-0.3)
NH D+7.8 (nc)
NV R+0.7 (nc)
NC R+2.1 (+0.5)
OH R+0.2 (+0.3, flipped)
PA D+5.7 (-0.3)
UT R+7.8 (+0.2)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

Slight improvement for Republicans in some races.

[2016]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

I don't live or die by them.  I just report them because I like numbers.