Election models megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

Ladies and Gentlemen, FiveThirtyEight's Deluxe model has Republican chances for the House at 69% now. Lowest on record this cycle.

nice

Nice

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs were +5 on GCB in 2010/14 and D's are +3 with Obama and Biden 22 at 45/53 Approvals that's why Rs are underperforming and it's not Rassy polls but Greenberg and NBC News GCB

That's why Progressive Moderate R nut map of R Sen 54 seats won't happen and D's were way ahead in 2018 on GCb but they weren't supposed to pickup 43 H seats more like 10/25 and we lost MO, ND, FL, IN TN and TX Sen races too

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver: The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounce Back

[Figueira]

From Fivethirtyeight: We Fixed An Error In Our Deluxe Midterm Forecast

Basically they deleted a bunch of Sabato ratings accidentally in June, so a bunch of races (mostly House) showed incorrect odds until they were corrected. Overall the correction increases Democratic odds in the House slightly, but notably causes some swing district odds to swing massively (a full list exists in the article). Meanwhile in the Senate Democratic odds have gone down slightly due to a slight change in Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Nate Silver: The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounce Back

Much to the chagrin of Josh K and Sean T's wishcasting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If course they don't look at Mara Largo and the Trump raid has damaged the brand of the R party beyond repair .
I hope Cunningham and Ryan get ELECTED

Why do you think Crist is doing well because of Mara Largo Raid in FLORIDA

[Brittain33]

Nate Silver: The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounce Back

Much to the chagrin of Josh K and Sean T's wishcasting.

They are still yearning for the election to be about Drag Queen Story Hour and school closings for COVID.

[wbrocks67]

Current House forecast:

Economist: R 221.5 - D 213.5
538: R 224 - D 211
YouGov: R 223 - D 212

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Rs might even win the H

[GeorgiaModerate]

As if there wasn't enough uncertainty already this year...

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1574047619135012864

[Figueira]

From Fivethirtyeight: We Fixed An Error In Our Deluxe Midterm Forecast

Basically they deleted a bunch of Sabato ratings accidentally in June, so a bunch of races (mostly House) showed incorrect odds until they were corrected. Overall the correction increases Democratic odds in the House slightly, but notably causes some swing district odds to swing massively (a full list exists in the article). Meanwhile in the Senate Democratic odds have gone down slightly due to a slight change in Wisconsin.

These changes appear to have been reversed, and now a completely different group of races have shifted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Kinda interesting how large the divergence is in the polling averages between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In the end, I think it's pretty unlikely WI and PA Sen will vote that far apart from eachother, but polling in WI tends to be worse than PA to the point where polling underestimating Rs in WI feels like a rule.

It is worth noting that in 2018, both WI and PA polling were pretty spot on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Kinda interesting how large the divergence is in the polling averages between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In the end, I think it's pretty unlikely WI and PA Sen will vote that far apart from eachother, but polling in WI tends to be worse than PA to the point where polling underestimating Rs in WI feels like a rule.

It is worth noting that in 2018, both WI and PA polling were pretty spot on.

And that's always a big asterisk with any polling analysis this year that might lend credence to the "Trump-on-the-ballot-effect" if it ends up being true.

If polls are relatively accurate similar to 2018, more or less, then Trump's presence really is a likely culprit of the misses in years' past. If they are as off as much as in 2020 then there really might be no hope for or reason to expect accuracy in American polling. This is kind of the fork in the road and the ultimate determining factor to me of what to expect from the polling industry from now on. And I don't how the inherent, near-universal disregard for most polls will play in future elections for both the campaigns and observers.

That said, there are still some states that were way off in 2018 and it should be expected for them to be that way this year and from here on out too. Namely Florida and Ohio. Maybe Nevada too in the other direction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UT, NC, OH and PA are on the verge of flipping

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Kinda interesting how large the divergence is in the polling averages between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In the end, I think it's pretty unlikely WI and PA Sen will vote that far apart from eachother, but polling in WI tends to be worse than PA to the point where polling underestimating Rs in WI feels like a rule.

It is worth noting that in 2018, both WI and PA polling were pretty spot on.

And that's always a big asterisk with any polling analysis this year that might lend credence to the "Trump-on-the-ballot-effect" if it ends up being true.

If polls are relatively accurate similar to 2018, more or less, then Trump's presence really is a likely culprit of the misses in years' past. If they are as off as much as in 2020 then there really might be no hope for or reason to expect accuracy in American polling. This is kind of the fork in the road and the ultimate determining factor to me of what to expect from the polling industry from now on. And I don't how the inherent, near-universal disregard for most polls will play in future elections for both the campaigns and observers.

That said, there are still some states that were way off in 2018 and it should be expected for them to be that way this year and from here on out too. Namely Florida and Ohio. Maybe Nevada too in the other direction.

I don't think we've ever had a cycle where polling has been accurate EVERYWHERE. I think when we discuss polling error, we're asking nationally who do polls tend to underestimate and by how much. In 2020, it was def Rs even though in a few places like Colorado polls underestimate Biden slightly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

Time for another update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (-1)
538 Lite 78 (-3)
538 Classic 75 (-4)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
JHK 67.0 (+2.9)
DDHQ 63.5 (+0.2)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.7 (-2.3)
JHK 72.4 (-3.5)
538 Classic 68 (-3)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
Economist 65 (-3)
538 Lite 60 (+1)

The thing that jumps out to me is that both Senate D and House R chances have generally decreased, i.e. that uncertainty is increasing across the board.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Kinda interesting how large the divergence is in the polling averages between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In the end, I think it's pretty unlikely WI and PA Sen will vote that far apart from eachother, but polling in WI tends to be worse than PA to the point where polling underestimating Rs in WI feels like a rule.

It is worth noting that in 2018, both WI and PA polling were pretty spot on.

And that's always a big asterisk with any polling analysis this year that might lend credence to the "Trump-on-the-ballot-effect" if it ends up being true.

If polls are relatively accurate similar to 2018, more or less, then Trump's presence really is a likely culprit of the misses in years' past. If they are as off as much as in 2020 then there really might be no hope for or reason to expect accuracy in American polling. This is kind of the fork in the road and the ultimate determining factor to me of what to expect from the polling industry from now on. And I don't how the inherent, near-universal disregard for most polls will play in future elections for both the campaigns and observers.

That said, there are still some states that were way off in 2018 and it should be expected for them to be that way this year and from here on out too. Namely Florida and Ohio. Maybe Nevada too in the other direction.

I don't think we've ever had a cycle where polling has been accurate EVERYWHERE. I think when we discuss polling error, we're asking nationally who do polls tend to underestimate and by how much. In 2020, it was def Rs even though in a few places like Colorado polls underestimate Biden slightly.

Imagine the chaos for the future of polling if Democrats are the ones who benefit from a polling error this year!

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

Time for another update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (-1)
538 Lite 78 (-3)
538 Classic 75 (-4)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
JHK 67.0 (+2.9)
DDHQ 63.5 (+0.2)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.7 (-2.3)
JHK 72.4 (-3.5)
538 Classic 68 (-3)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
Economist 65 (-3)
538 Lite 60 (+1)

The thing that jumps out to me is that both Senate D and House R chances have generally decreased, i.e. that uncertainty is increasing across the board.

I really wonder what the possibilities of a Democratic House/Republican Senate are now. It does seem like House polls are getting better for Democrats while Senate polls are getting worse. Very bizarre.

Speaking for myself, if we can only have one, I'd still prefer Democrats controlling the Senate. That's almost all I care about this year, save for a few gubernatorial elections that I've sort of given up on having faith in Democrats winning anyway.

[Person Man]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Kinda interesting how large the divergence is in the polling averages between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In the end, I think it's pretty unlikely WI and PA Sen will vote that far apart from eachother, but polling in WI tends to be worse than PA to the point where polling underestimating Rs in WI feels like a rule.

It is worth noting that in 2018, both WI and PA polling were pretty spot on.

And that's always a big asterisk with any polling analysis this year that might lend credence to the "Trump-on-the-ballot-effect" if it ends up being true.

If polls are relatively accurate similar to 2018, more or less, then Trump's presence really is a likely culprit of the misses in years' past. If they are as off as much as in 2020 then there really might be no hope for or reason to expect accuracy in American polling. This is kind of the fork in the road and the ultimate determining factor to me of what to expect from the polling industry from now on. And I don't how the inherent, near-universal disregard for most polls will play in future elections for both the campaigns and observers.

That said, there are still some states that were way off in 2018 and it should be expected for them to be that way this year and from here on out too. Namely Florida and Ohio. Maybe Nevada too in the other direction.

I don't think we've ever had a cycle where polling has been accurate EVERYWHERE. I think when we discuss polling error, we're asking nationally who do polls tend to underestimate and by how much. In 2020, it was def Rs even though in a few places like Colorado polls underestimate Biden slightly.

Imagine the chaos for the future of polling if Democrats are the ones who benefit from a polling error this year!

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

Time for another update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (-1)
538 Lite 78 (-3)
538 Classic 75 (-4)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
JHK 67.0 (+2.9)
DDHQ 63.5 (+0.2)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.7 (-2.3)
JHK 72.4 (-3.5)
538 Classic 68 (-3)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
Economist 65 (-3)
538 Lite 60 (+1)

The thing that jumps out to me is that both Senate D and House R chances have generally decreased, i.e. that uncertainty is increasing across the board.

I really wonder what the possibilities of a Democratic House/Republican Senate are now. It does seem like House polls are getting better for Democrats while Senate polls are getting worse. Very bizarre.

Speaking for myself, if we can only have one, I'd still prefer Democrats controlling the Senate. That's almost all I care about this year, save for a few gubernatorial elections that I've sort of given up on having faith in Democrats winning anyway.

Maybe this truly is a zero wave year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're still looking at models and EDay is 5 weeks away I don't look at them we know Rs can take the H that doesn't mean diddly for 52+ Senate seats we have so many pickups in GOV and Sen Edays as many as Rs have in the H

[Torie]

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-reasons-for-democrats-to-still-be-concerned-about-the-midterms/

The primary merit of this piece is that it is a revealing description of what is under the 538 hood, and what isn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't concerned about the Senate or Govs and if they lose the H Adam Schiff said they will win it back it's gonna be a D Sen PAs and GA and NV Leans D that's 51 seats

People forget as soon as 22 is over the race for the Senate and H begins since it's a 303 map anyways and we have entrenched incumbentts I'm the Sen with Bob Casey Jr and Tim Kaine in 24 R pickups are very limited in 24, and Gwen Graham is looking to challenge Rick Scott on 24 he isn't Rubio as for the H it's gonna be such a narrow majority either way D's will win it back in 24 R majority don't last forever

Pollsters are so obsessed with 24 polling they will start polling 23/24 numbers

[Holmes]

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-reasons-for-democrats-to-still-be-concerned-about-the-midterms/

The primary merit of this piece is that it is a revealing description of what is under the 538 hood, and what isn't.

More reasonable than women googling abortion less.

[Progressive Pessimist]

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-reasons-for-democrats-to-still-be-concerned-about-the-midterms/

The primary merit of this piece is that it is a revealing description of what is under the 538 hood, and what isn't.

Thanks Nate, but trust me, we're still fretting. No need to twist the knife more.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-reasons-for-democrats-to-still-be-concerned-about-the-midterms/

The primary merit of this piece is that it is a revealing description of what is under the 538 hood, and what isn't.

Thanks Nate, but trust me, we're still fretting. No need to twist the knife more.

I've been in a nonstop state of anxiety about the country imploding for seven years now, and it's surprising how little the people who feel that way get acknowledged anywhere in the press.