2022 French legislatives

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amazing. This legislative vote is off to a good start, let's hope we can keep it up the next two Sundays.

[Oryxslayer]

Official results for all other overseas seats are now up.

[Ethelberth]

In USA they should also understand, that all hundreds of types irregular voting systems, should be counted week BEFORE electon regular voting day.

[FredLindq]

Looking att potential transfers RE will win all ten seats in the second round?!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looking att potential transfers RE will win all ten seats in the second round?!

There are 11 seats. NUPES has a shot in one of them (the 9th, representing North Africa), but who knows. The 8th (Mediterranean countries including Israel) will also be close between REN and the right-wing (and Likud-affiliated, as Hash pointed out) incumbent. The other 9 should be easy Ensemble (or Ensemble-dissident, in Vojetta's case) holds barring something crazy, yeah.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking att potential transfers RE will win all ten seats in the second round?!

All except the Maghreb and North African constituency, and maybe the Mediterranean one should be easy LREM wins, yes. This is what we expected when NUPES formed: they consolidate their votes early so might lead many seats going into the runoff, but have limited transfer appeal so get shoved aside by LREM in most cases.

What may differ on the mainland are the areas where RN and FI voters are more similar than different (though it will be FN advancing in most of these seats), seats where NUPES has enough votes in round 1 to not need much transfers, areas where there is anti-govt consolidation rather than ideological, and finally, a note that in many areas there will be abstention among voters for the eliminated candidates, so transfers are not 1:1.

[parochial boy]

On the whole yes, you'd probably bet the bank on LREM all bar the two that have already been mentioned - and standing evey chance in those two as well.

However one thing to bear in mind is that it isn't just vote transfers. Equally as important is the turnout game. As in, in a perceived low interest, low stakes, low turnout election (all the more so for expats for whom voting is a bit more of an effort from the outset) there is quite an incentive for people to just sit out the second round if their party or candidate isn't present. And when it comes to the metropolitan votes - RN voters could behave eccentrically, or abstain en masse in second rounds they are absent from. Remember after all that a lot of 2017 second rounds did not end up going the way the first rounds had suggested.

All of which means that who bothers to turn up in the second round could matter as much as to who they transfer allegiance to. All the more so among RN and Reconquête voters as both of those parties have had, by all accounts, completely anonymous campaigns and are at best uninterested in the whole affair.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe the only nominally left politician I dislike more than C***a U****a.

Glorious result.

[FredLindq]

Why has not RN campaigned more?! Was not this their chance for a breakteough?! Are they blowing it?!

[Velasco]

What a terrible setback! I thought Emmanuel Macron was planning to appoint Manuel Valls PM, in order to boost the second presidency

More seriously,  regardless of whether Valls is disgusting, he played a role in Barcelona preventing a separatist mayor took over and allowing Ada Colau to remain. Had Albert Rivera listened to him and the former Cs leader could have been the most powerful man in Spain.

Adieu Manu

[Mike88]

Interesting that Valls almost won in Portugal, just a 2 vote difference between him and Goater:

18.6% UDC
18.5% RE
17.8% NUPES
17.2% Vojetta
12.8% Reconquête
  5.5% RN
  3.1% UCE
  2.2% Behar
  1.6% FGR
  1.5% UPF
  1.2% Volt
  0.1% EH Bai

32.8% Turnout

[parochial boy]

Why has not RN campaigned more?! Was not this their chance for a breakteough?! Are they blowing it?!

Parliamentarism just generally something that is in the party culture or that would be a priority. Like generally, from an ideological perspective the French far right does not have any particular interest in it. So Marine Le Pen is off record on basically not really giving a crap about the legislatives though.

Related to this, or stemming from this, the party has a very vertical power structure. As in there is a small cadre that constitutes the party elite and the rest are, well, basically cannon fodder. So cue all these completely embarrassing videos of RN candidates going on local radio/TV and being completely and utterly clueless - not having any idea of the party's policies, not having any idea to respond to any question that isn't the ones that they have formatted responses to and the rest. Basically - beyond the few dozen winnable seats, the party just lumped a bunch of no hopers in essentially not caring what they do beyond getting the 1% or so it takes to get public funding.

Likewise, even when the RN do get people elected, the party has an enormous attrition rate. A huge proportion of people elected under an RN label will quit the party over the course of their mandate. For the same reason, the party isn't interested in having an internal democracy, local figures, participating in the parliamentary process. So when people get elected on whatever list they are left out to dry, given no support, ignored and unsuprisingly wind up disillusioned and leave. Which is the story with the legislatives - they are interested in getting seats for a few of Le Pens' cronies, but otherwise, not interested - not the priority.

[Oryxslayer]

The only thing I have to add to the above is that despite everything and a lack of attention, their base vote is now strong enough to guarantee victories in quite a few seats - and guarantee victories for whomever advances alongside them in many others.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1533842721609289731?s=20

Surprisingly relevant to our discussion. Useless constituency poll is useless. You might expect the party leader to cruise to victory, but RN arn't a parliamentary driven party. This might be enough to elect her on round 1, but turnout would have to be above 50%, so odd are she goes to a easily won runoff.

[Hash]

Unsurprising but interesting fact: Meyer Habib, the likudnik, won 75% of his votes in the two Israeli/West Bank consular constituencies, which accounted for just 30% of the votes cast in the constituency.

He won 72.7% in Jerusalem (including West Bank settlements) and 62.7% in the Israel. He finished third or worse in all other parts of the constituency.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Unsurprising but interesting fact: Meyer Habib, the likudnik, won 75% of his votes in the two Israeli/West Bank consular constituencies, which accounted for just 30% of the votes cast in the constituency.

He won 72.7% in Jerusalem (including West Bank settlements) and 62.7% in the Israel. He finished third or worse in all other parts of the constituency.

Is he going to a runoff against Macron's candidate or both Macron's and the Left candidate?

[Oryxslayer]

Unsurprising but interesting fact: Meyer Habib, the likudnik, won 75% of his votes in the two Israeli/West Bank consular constituencies, which accounted for just 30% of the votes cast in the constituency.

He won 72.7% in Jerusalem (including West Bank settlements) and 62.7% in the Israel. He finished third or worse in all other parts of the constituency.

Is he going to a runoff against Macron's candidate or both Macron's and the Left candidate?

Macronista only. If there was a three-way, you would have heard about it since turnout overseas is always too poor to allow for one. Theoretically LREM should win the seat, especially with the regional polarization, but they need good turnout next weekend among their transferred round2 voters.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Unsurprising but interesting fact: Meyer Habib, the likudnik, won 75% of his votes in the two Israeli/West Bank consular constituencies, which accounted for just 30% of the votes cast in the constituency.

He won 72.7% in Jerusalem (including West Bank settlements) and 62.7% in the Israel. He finished third or worse in all other parts of the constituency.

Is he going to a runoff against Macron's candidate or both Macron's and the Left candidate?

Macronista only. If there was a three-way, you would have heard about it since turnout overseas is always too poor to allow for one. Theoretically LREM should win the seat, especially with the regional polarization, but they need good turnout next weekend among their transferred round2 voters.

Here's hoping! Italy, Greece and Turkey, do your thing!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surprisingly relevant to our discussion. Useless constituency poll is useless. You might expect the party leader to cruise to victory, but RN arn't a parliamentary driven party. This might be enough to elect her on round 1, but turnout would have to be above 50%, so odd are she goes to a easily won runoff.

All of the usual caveats about constituency polling and so on, but it's more relevant to seats with a similar profile in the region than to hers: it's another point in favour of the theory that if Left candidates can get into runoffs in them, then they ought to be competitive in at least some.

[Oryxslayer]

Updates:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1534202113101905920?s=20&t=MVV2I4sVO...

Safe LREM seat is safe.

Potentially the final Harris Poll before R1. Changes since last week are effectively meaningless: non-NUPES left +1%, LREM -1%, LR +1%, DLF + 1%, RN -1%, R! -1%. However they move about 15 seats in the model from the LREM+ majority to NUPES, most to LFI.





Also, in what could very well be the last polls, Harris chooses...mostly uncompetitive Brittany for their regional poll. Neverminded that they haven't polled IDF yet and it is full of competitive seats... Anyway, Macron got 32.8% here in round 1, Le Pen 19.5%, and 31.65% for the combined four NUPES candidates. LREM is the only big piller holding their vote, perhaps because of all the incumbents. In 2017, LREM almost swept the region. One wonders if this will be repeated, just with the handful of LR seats being swapped for a handful of left wing seats.



IFOP also has very little change since last weeks poll, but their seat count has changed to move 20 seats from LREM to NUPES. Note that they had LREM below a majority previously, and remain the only modeler to suggest LREM (barely) misses the majority.

[Sir John Johns]

What's this about the Interior Ministry not allowing the name NUPES to appear on the ballot and counting all the left-wing parties' results separately instead? Does Mélenchon have an actual complaint here or did he just screw up the paperwork?

There is no paperwork, labelling is a decision sorely in the hands of the Interior Ministry and the prefectures.

https://twitter.com/Conseil_Etat/status/1534191976345653253

The NUPES must be counted as a single political nuance.

The juge des référés estimates that counting the parties of that coalition separately could violate the sincerity of the presentation of the election results.

Currently the candidates running for the NUPES are categorized by the Interior Ministry either as ‘FI’ (France Insoumise), either as ‘COM’ (Communist), either as ‘SOC’ (Socialist), either as ‘ECO’ (Ecologist) and, probably, also either as ‘DVG’ (‘divers gauche’). Meanwhile the candidates of the zillions of parties, movements, micro-parties and phone booths supporting Macron have been awarded by the ministry the ‘ENS’ (‘Ensemble!’) label with not even a distinction made between the Modem and LREM Renaissance.

As the ‘ECO’ category is also including various pro-Macron, right-wing, joke or fake ecologist or ‘ecologist’ parties as well as the Animalist Party (a single-issue party that is outside of the left/right divide), it would have been impossible to know the exact results obtained by the NUPES candidates unless going into long and tedious calculations.

As insane as it sounds EELV has apparently no right to a distinct label unlike, for example, * check notes * the Radical Party of the Left (RIP). If this isn't a proof the organization of the elections should not be entrusted to the Ministry of Interior.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Between this and the fact that legislative boundaries are neither drawn nor overseen independently, it really is astonishing quite how American so many critical electoral procedures are in France, albeit through a glass etched with Jacobin insignia darkly.

[parochial boy]

Between this and the fact that legislative boundaries are neither drawn nor overseen independently, it really is astonishing quite how American so many critical electoral procedures are in France, albeit through a glass etched with Jacobin insignia darkly.

Between that and the periodically activist constitutional courts, the complete ongoing meltdown over national identity and sense of decline, the particularly unpleasant politcal environment, bouts of social unrest, issues with various forms of terrorism, hysterics about the alleged doings of the "wokists", recent global attention over the chronic police violence, et j'en passe... the very numerous parallels between those two countries in quite amusing on the whole

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, good on the Council of State. Given how deferential the judiciary usually is to the executive, I actually wasn't expecting that.

Looking forward to tracking NUPES' results on Sunday, then!

[Antonio the Sixth]

...and in today's NUPES-related judicial news (what a time to be alive), a tribunal struck down the PS' agreement with NUPES arguing that based on the party's statutes they should have submitted it for approval by the membership. From what I can see here, it doesn't sound like it will change anything to the actual candidacies the PS put up. However, it might remove the party's ability to expel PS members who decided to run as dissidents. Which tbh I'm not sure if the PS was trying to do either way, they traditionally take a pretty soft hand about this stuff.