2022 French legislatives

[xelas81]

Morbihan 4th (Brittany)

Paul MOLAC *
rég. 21 900 -37,65 %

Rozenn GUEGAN
Hor.-Ens. 10 624 -18,26 %

*apparently elected as LREM in 2017???

[parochial boy]

The current IPSOS projection has NUPES slightly ahead. Let's remember one thing, three months ago the pundits were lecturing us on how the left was dead and how the left-right divide was finished. Well let's put it this way, regardless of what you think about Mélenchon or NUPES or whatever, but dead political ideologies don't win elections. The left is alive and it has a story to tell.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

So basically an overperformance for RN and LR? That is certainly not what I expected.

France has a massive counting bias in favor of smaller municipalities and "peripheral" areas. Now we're at 80% counted and still nothing has come in from Paris and the Petite Couronne. Until they start reporting, you can't really discuss the national results.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

So basically an overperformance for RN and LR? That is certainly not what I expected.

France has a massive counting bias in favor of smaller municipalities and "peripheral" areas. Now we're at 80% counted and still nothing has come in from Paris and the Petite Couronne. Until they start reporting, you can't really discuss the national results.

Other thing that national results are kinda useless.

[Hash]

Morbihan 4th (Brittany)

Paul MOLAC *
rég. 21 900 -37,65 %

Rozenn GUEGAN
Hor.-Ens. 10 624 -18,26 %

*apparently elected as LREM in 2017???

Molac was first elected in 2012, at the time with the support of EELV and the PS, and reelected by the first round as the LREM candidate. In his first term, he initially sat in the ecolo group, but was part of the more 'right-wing' (pro-Flanby govt.) faction and quit the group in 2016 to join the Socialist group. In his second term, he quit the LREM group in 2018, after dissenting with the majority (from the left) on several major issues, and formed the catch-all 'Libertés et territoires' group (which included the three Corsican nationalists as well as Jean Lassalle, Olivier Falorni).

At the time of his first election in 2012, he was a member of the centre-left regionalist party Union démocratique bretonne (UDB), traditionally the 'strongest' of the Breton regionalist movements and historically allied with EELV and the left. He seems to have left the UDB in 2017 but declared himself attached to the regionalist coalition Régions et peuples solidaires (R&PS) for political financing purposes. In the regional council of Brittany, he leads a three-member regionalist group in the governing (PS-left) majority, alongside notably Christian Troadec, having been reelected last year on the PS-left list in Morbihan.

Good guy, would definitely have voted for him.

[Oryxslayer]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

So basically an overperformance for RN and LR? That is certainly not what I expected.

France has a massive counting bias in favor of smaller municipalities and "peripheral" areas. Now we're at 80% counted and still nothing has come in from Paris and the Petite Couronne. Until they start reporting, you can't really discuss the national results.

Agree ith both this and the post about it's meaningfulness. However, it even without the cities, we can expect based on the exits that LR overperformed. Just looking around it appears a lot of the Zemmour respondents from the previous polling were disappointed in the lack of viable candidates, and returned to the right.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The replies are coming in very slowly in this thread for being the middle of an election night. Seems Atlas is about as interested in this election as the French themselves are.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Morbihan 4th (Brittany)

Paul MOLAC *
rég. 21 900 -37,65 %

Rozenn GUEGAN
Hor.-Ens. 10 624 -18,26 %

*apparently elected as LREM in 2017???

Molac was first elected in 2012, at the time with the support of EELV and the PS, and reelected by the first round as the LREM candidate. In his first term, he initially sat in the ecolo group, but was part of the more 'right-wing' (pro-Flanby govt.) faction and quit the group in 2016 to join the Socialist group. In his second term, he quit the LREM group in 2018, after dissenting with the majority (from the left) on several major issues, and formed the catch-all 'Libertés et territoires' group (which included the three Corsican nationalists as well as Jean Lassalle, Olivier Falorni).

At the time of his first election in 2012, he was a member of the centre-left regionalist party Union démocratique bretonne (UDB), traditionally the 'strongest' of the Breton regionalist movements and historically allied with EELV and the left. He seems to have left the UDB in 2017 but declared himself attached to the regionalist coalition Régions et peuples solidaires (R&PS) for political financing purposes. In the regional council of Brittany, he leads a three-member regionalist group in the governing (PS-left) majority, alongside notably Christian Troadec, having been reelected last year on the PS-left list in Morbihan.

Good guy, would definitely have voted for him.

Well, he is a person behind "loi Molac", so at least in a field of minorities right he did a lot of well needed stuff. Unfortunately, I have not paid attention regarding what happened to loi Molac after those constitutional shenanigans in 2021, so I don't know if there was anything salvaged from that effort.

[Oryxslayer]

Adrien Quatennens for LFI Gets over 50% in urban Lille but still goes to a runoff. Second candidate after Le Pen I have seen in this situation.

[parochial boy]

NUPES finishing infront in the Haute Savoie - 3rd. Which is in part notable because it seems a bit random, but is actually the Arve Valley which is the one industrial and identifiably working class part of the department (big problems with pollution actually), which already one thing. But also, NUPES finishing in front in a circonscription in Haute Savoie of all places - that's like - completely unheard of; all the more so when you consider that the onethat did it is the one part of the department that the "global trends" narrative would have us believe would be falling into the hands of the far right.

[Andrea]

Alexis Corbière (LFI) elected in Seine St Denis 7 with 62.94% (28% of registered electorate)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a triumph for the Left, of course, but a sizeable parliamentary cohort is an absolutely essentially precondition if they ever want to amount to anything again and they should manage that comfortably now. If President Jupiter fails to keep his majority, then that will be very funny.

[Andrea]

Adrien Quatennens for LFI Gets over 50% in urban Lille but still goes to a runoff. Second candidate after Le Pen I have seen in this situation.

At least 3 NUPES candidates in Seine St Denis in the same situation. One of them polled over 60% but turnout was very poor.

[Logical]

NUPES ahead in all of Seine Saint Denis districts and is in a great position to sweep them clean next week.

[Oryxslayer]

NUPES ahead in all of Seine Saint Denis districts and is in a great position to sweep them clean next week.

The most obvious of predictions. Without any left wing competitors, NUPES would get it all, we noted when the pact was signed how LFI got a lot of these seats which were locks. More interesting is the lack of first-round wins here, even with low turnout. You would anticipate 60% for them in some seats.

Also Dupont-Aignan tops the poll in his seat, and advances versus LFI, who'll probably defeat him.

[Hash]

Adrien Quatennens for LFI Gets over 50% in urban Lille but still goes to a runoff. Second candidate after Le Pen I have seen in this situation.

At least three such cases for the NUPES in the 93, including Stéphane Peu (PCF) who misses out on a first round victory despite getting 62.9% in the 2nd constituency because turnout was just 32.8%. On the other hand, Alexis Corbière (ugh) is reelected in the 7th constituency with 62.9%, because turnout was higher (45.9%) - thanks to Montreuil bobos.

NUPES ahead in all of Seine Saint Denis districts and is in a great position to sweep them clean next week.

In the 5th, Jean-Christophe Lagarde's stronghold, he is far behind: 19.3% against 48.1% for Raquel Garrido, but the results are missing his stronghold in Drancy, although it still doesn't look very good for him. Would be glad to see that slimy clientelistic boss out.

[Andrea]

Danièle Obono re-elected in Paris 17 with 57.07%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the 5th, Jean-Christophe Lagarde's stronghold, he is far behind: 19.3% against 48.1% for Raquel Garrido, but the results are missing his stronghold in Drancy, although it still doesn't look very good for him. Would be glad to see that slimy clientelistic boss out.

Fingers crossed on that one.

[Andrea]

In the 5th, Jean-Christophe Lagarde's stronghold, he is far behind: 19.3% against 48.1% for Raquel Garrido, but the results are missing his stronghold in Drancy, although it still doesn't look very good for him. Would be glad to see that slimy clientelistic boss out.

Fingers crossed on that one.

Final
Garrido 37.9
LaGarde 33.41

[Hash]

In Alpes-Maritimes 1st (central Nice), cryptofascist LR incumbent Éric Ciotti is ahead with 31.7% and will face Graig Monetti (Ensemble), close to Christian Estrosi (Ciotti's archnemesis for a while now), who got 25.9%. NUPES won 20.4%.

[Mike88]

In her speech, Le Pen said that in runoffs between Ensemble and NUPES, RN voters should just abstain. It will be interesting to see, what will Ensemble do in NUPES vs RN runoffs and what NUPES will do in Ensemble vs RN runoffs. Probably abstention will be the likely outcome, thus the turnout next Sunday will be dismal.

[Andrea]

 Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

[Mike88]

Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

Also, just 2 Paris constituencies and one Marseille constituency are still to be announced, from what I've seen.

[Hash]

Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

4 for NUPES - Corbière in the 93, and three in Paris (two of them non-incumbents in LREM-held seats)

[Mike88]

Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

4 for NUPES - Corbière in the 93, and three in Paris (two of them non-incumbents in LREM-held seats)

Yes, weird that the Interior Minister website isn't updating that.

Not, sure but it seems that all ballots are now counted. The number of registered voters tallied is just 15,000 less than the Presidential election. And Ensemble is just 14,133 votes ahead of NUPES nationwide.