2022 French legislatives

[Zanas]

It looks like Macron's party will get another majority - but does it matter who comes in second? is there such a thing as an "official opposition" in the National Assembly? In other words if NUPES is the clear second largest block with well over 100 seats and the RN and the remains of LR are way back - does that affect the tenor of French politics for the rest of Macron's tenure or does it not really matter?

I think you need a certain amount of seats to have an official fraction (20 or 30 something like that).

15 deputies are needed for a parliamentary group.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1528110051646373888?s=20&t=31-5TFibi...

An interesting data point to say the least. It need not be stated that individual seat polls anywhere are likely to end up inaccurate, but does give one reasonable benchmark for party performances.

This suggests either a Incumbent LREM-Zemmour runoff or a three-way between those two and FN. I think Zemmour wins in the former situation, whereas LREM wins in the latter.

[Oryxslayer]

First Ipsos poll of the legislatives. Most notable is they are the fist one to significantly poll and model abstention and turnout. Unsurprisingly, turnout around 50%. In keeping with past precedent, Macron's demographics and voters are more likely to turn out and give the elected president their majority.










Also another Cluster17 poll, with no meaningful changes from their poll from last week.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What's this about the Interior Ministry not allowing the name NUPES to appear on the ballot and counting all the left-wing parties' results separately instead? Does Mélenchon have an actual complaint here or did he just screw up the paperwork?

[MaxQue]

What's this about the Interior Ministry not allowing the name NUPES to appear on the ballot and counting all the left-wing parties' results separately instead? Does Mélenchon have an actual complaint here or did he just screw up the paperwork?

There is no paperwork, labelling is a decision sorely in the hands of the Interior Ministry and the prefectures.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's this about the Interior Ministry not allowing the name NUPES to appear on the ballot and counting all the left-wing parties' results separately instead? Does Mélenchon have an actual complaint here or did he just screw up the paperwork?

There is no paperwork, labelling is a decision sorely in the hands of the Interior Ministry and the prefectures.

It's funny how France is in many ways basically a banana republic, yet has managed (so far) to avoid any major democratic crisis. Inshallah that continues.

[Oryxslayer]

Weekly Harris Poll. Barely any changes form last week.





This week, the Region Harris polled was Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. The first round here was 27.75% Macron, 22.3% Le Pen, 30.6% for the combined four NUPES candidates. So compared to round 1, the NUPES and LREM totals, as well as Zemmour's, are slightly down in favor of LR+ - not surprising in a region that one had some very LR-friendly constituencies. Probably ends up delivering a overwhelmingly number of LREM+ victories.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1530718718786998275?s=20&t=70ymtF6uB...

This is the second single-seat poll that has popped up. Once again, the thing to remember is that polls for this small of a geography are best seen as weathervanes that show the direction of the potential vote, not a accurate reading of voter behavior. Based on this perspective, there likely will be a LREM-FN runoff, on that probably favors LREM despite Le Pen barely winning the constituency in the runoff.

[DL]

Do we know if third place NUPES candidates who got over 15% in the first round will necessarily drop out of the second round in the interest of stopping the RN from winning seats?

[MaxQue]

Do we know if third place NUPES candidates who got over 15% in the first round will necessarily drop out of the second round in the interest of stopping the RN from winning seats?

It's not 15%, it's 12.5% or registered voters. I doubt it would happen more than once or twice.

[Oryxslayer]

Do we know if third place NUPES candidates who got over 15% in the first round will necessarily drop out of the second round in the interest of stopping the RN from winning seats?

It's not 15%, it's 12.5% or registered voters. I doubt it would happen more than once or twice.

This. With an anticipated turnout of just under 50%, you need at least 25% to advance to round 2 alongside the top two finishers. So in effect, you need 75-80% of the vote to go to the three pillars in a favorable distribution, when in most areas 2 of the 3 have clear advantages..

[Oryxslayer]

Weekly Harris Poll. Unlike last time, there is a notable change from the prior weeks polling. NUPES is down 4%. This is because Harris added the option of selecting 'other Left parties,' and 4% of respondents who would have chosen NUPES out of the previous options jump if their is an alternative left-wing option offered. This slightly effects the number of seats they expect to go for NUPES, but realistically barely matters since those voters will return to the NUPES candidates in a round 2 runoff.





Harris's weekly region is this time the Grande Est. In round 1 Le Pen received 29.5%, Macron 27.3%, and the 4 NUPES candidates 24.8%. LR+ is pulling from both the Le Pen's and Macron's vote here, though I doubt it will be enough to save their incumbents.



Also released is a Ifop poll. No major difference from their last poll, besides a similar decline of NUPES for the minor leftists, but more notably is that they have the first projection that puts the Presidential majority's lower bound below the majority threshold.

[RGM2609]

What would happen if the Presidential Majority fails to gain a majority? Coalition with LR?

[DL]

What would happen if the Presidential Majority fails to gain a majority? Coalition with LR?

Would they need any formal coalition with anyone or would they pass some bills with LR support and other bills with support from parts of NUPES - I assume that there will be no party discipline within NUPES and that on many bills you could see EELV and/or PS deputies vote one way and FI and Communists vote another way...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Monde has a map of potential battlegrounds https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/06/02/elections-legislatives-entre-la-gauche-et-la-majorite-259-points-chauds-en-cartes_6128695_823448.html

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1533187009765851142?s=20&t=GGXAsJwRy...

Realistically, closer than I would expect for the NUPES alliance. Though constituency polls are always crapshoots, so it only tells us the race is tight.

[Oryxslayer]

France Polynesia voted, though the mainland has to wait a week. Turnout is actually up by 11% here on R1, probably cause the candidates are local to the remote islands rather than distant and uncaring. Tapura - the first blue Column - is endorsed by Macron, Tavini - the red/purple column - is endorsed by NUPES.

Realistically, Tapura dominates the local political scene, and are in a much better position for transfers. Despite their awkward labels, Amuitahiraʻa's voters likely break in favor of Tavini because of the autonomy question, but Tavini needs them all. If Tapura don't win all three seats it will be because Brotherson wins by the skin of his teeth.

[Hash]

Expat first round results are to be released today, after the online voting (probably the majority of votes) and in-person voting today and yesterday. I voted online last weekend (I doubt my candidate will win over 1% of the vote).

In the 5th constituency, Manuel Valls has been defeated, eliminated in the first round, finishing third behind the NUPES (27.2%) and the macronista incumbent running as a dissident (25.4%). One comment: ROFL.

[Zinneke]

Don't care about the overall result now, I just wanted to see that slimy, lying carpet bagging careerist cockwomble piss off from our TV screens forever.

[Oryxslayer]

In the 5th constituency, Manuel Valls has been defeated, eliminated in the first round, finishing third behind the NUPES (27.2%) and the macronista incumbent running as a dissident (25.4%). One comment: ROFL.

People really want the extranational carpetbagger to to go away lol. I wonder if Vojetta will be welcomed back to LREM after he wins, cause that is the extremely likely outcome.

[windjammer]

Manuel Valls is the main cause of the destruction of the center left and the emergence of the abomination that has become "La France Insoumise"

[Sir John Johns]

Valls has just deleted his Twitter account. What a sore loser!

Also, Son-Forget is eliminated in the Switzerland-Liechtenstein constituency with 4.2% of the votes. He wasn't helped by the fact that his last party, Reconquête, fielded a candidate against him.

[Oryxslayer]

LREM has advanced everywhere without Valls and their main opposition is unsurprisingly NUPES. However, most of these seats - including the 3 above - should return LREM vicotires in round two, since they are in position to benefit from transfers from all others. The results for the other areas are not yet on the govt site, but can be projected.

[Logical]

[Hash]

Expat results so far

1 (US/Canada)
Lescure (Ensemble, inc.) 35.9%
Roger (NUPES-LFI) 33.4%
Michon (fake greens in 'presidential majority') 10.7%
Bondrille (ASFE - right-leaning expats party) 5.3%
Ouelhadj (Zemmourismo) 5.2%
Caraco (LR-UDI) 4.7%
Adam (RN) 2%
Others below 1%
Turnout: 21.3%

The incumbent, Roland Lescure, well liked by the macronista galaxy but an utterly worthless deputy (particularly during the pandemic), is ahead but his result is quite weak - compared to 2017, when he had 57.5% in the first round - and the NUPES is quite strong, seemingly benefiting from strong results and higher turnout in Canada (compared to the US). As for my vote, well, I think this is the worst result for a candidate I ever voted for, but I have no regrets.

2 (Latin America)
Caroit (Ensemble) 34.6%
Rodriguez (NUPES-LFI) 28.2%
Dupont (LR) 12.2%
Thorailler (Zemmourismo) 6.3%
Laurence (ind. 'ecologist') 6.1%
Biurrun (ASFE/fake greens in 'presidential majority') 4.7%
Lefèbvre (RN) 2.2%
Collard (?) 2.1%
Piat-Guibert (FGR) 1.3%
Others below 1%
Turnout: 14.9%

Macronismo is ahead but down about 10 points from 2017, while NUPES does well.

11 (Asia/Oceania/Russia)
Genetet (Ensemble, inc.) 38.1%
Vidal (NUPES-PCF) 24.8%
Guyon (Zemmourismo) 10.1%
Gentil (ASFE) 9.5%
Vial-Kayser (fake greens in 'presidential majority') 6.7%
Martin (LR) 6.4%
Burlotte (RN) 2.7%
Tapayeva (UPF) 1.7%
Turnout: 28%

The incumbent is ahead but again the macronista vote is down 16 points from 2017 and NUPES wins a surprisingly strong result in a weak constituency for the left.

No results officially in the other constituencies but it would look as if there will be macronismo v. NUPES runoffs everywhere, except in the 8th (Israel, Greece, Turkey, Italy) where the loathsome Meyer Habib (Likud) is narrowly ahead of the macronista candidate. The left seems to be ahead in the 9th constituency (Maghreb and West Africa), leading former cabinet minister Élisabeth Moreno, in what is the left's strongest constituency.

However, macronismo's results are mediocre across the board, and seem to have suffered from the competition from 'local' centre-right candidates and various spoiler fake green 'presidential majority' candidate (from a micro-party called 'Union des centristes et des écologistes', a macronista splinter of the stillborn UDE, itself a splinter of EELV formed back in 2015 by various incompetent slimeball opportunists like the idiot Jean-Vincent Placé). On the other hand, good results for NUPES but they have no reserves, so at best they can hope for one, maybe two, seats.

Thanks to the internet voting option this year, turnout is slightly higher than the absolute lows of 2017 but is still terribly low.