2022 French legislatives

[Zanas]

Interesting that RN doesn't seem to have been overestimated in the polls then. They very much were in 2017.

Once all the urban areas have been counted, I suspect they will lose a couple points still. But indeed they don’t seem to have bled so much, even though they conducted a dreadful (non) campaign

[Mike88]

If I heard it right, Le Pen said she was elected with 55% of the votes in her constituency.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Interesting that RN doesn't seem to have been overestimated in the polls then. They very much were in 2017.

can't be, i was told that the polling industry worldwide has a systematic bias against the populist right

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that RN doesn't seem to have been overestimated in the polls then. They very much were in 2017.

If anything, it looks like they could end up underestimated as pollsters  apply traditional models for consolidation against them in round 2. If you go back to the original pages I noted that RN could very well hit 100 seats. Obviously NUPES consolidation has pushed that down, but looking around at the places that they should be dominating - they are, and usually are on top to advance. And there are a lot less NUPES-LREM+ runoffs that both probably desire. Obviously though they still have a impassible ceiling, but 35 seats as models estimate might be too low.

If I heard it right, Le Pen said she was elected with 55% of the votes in her constituency.

Depends upon if enough voters turned out if she avoids a runoff.

[Andrea]

Cher (18) - 2ème circonscription

Final result

M. Nicolas SANSU (NUP) 32.36%
Mme Christine POLY (RN) 22.99%
Mme Nadia ESSAYAN (ENS) 22.6% * incumbent  ELIMINATED
M. Adrien BAERT (LR) 12.29%  ELIMINATED

[Mike88]

If I heard it right, Le Pen said she was elected with 55% of the votes in her constituency.

Depends upon if enough voters turned out if she avoids a runoff.

Ah, right. Not sure about that then. The results aren't official yet.

[Andrea]

If I heard it right, Le Pen said she was elected with 55% of the votes in her constituency.

With half counted, she is leading with 56%
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/062/06211.html

[Mike88]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

[Mike88]

If I heard it right, Le Pen said she was elected with 55% of the votes in her constituency.

With half counted, she is leading with 56%
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/062/06211.html

She needs 25% of registered voters to be elected on the 1st round. She's at 24.04% right now.

[jaichind]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

Are all Macron bloc parties running under Ensemble? Similar question for NUPES as well as LR allies.  Namely are any of the vote shares of DG and DD really allies of these larger blocs?

[Logical]

With 83% of the vote counted it looks like Zemmour will narrowly miss the runoff.

28.25% ENS
25.44% RN
22.78% Zemmour (REC)

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/083/08304.html

[Hash]

So far, 2 triangulaires (NUPES-ENS-RN) in Lot-et-Garonne and one (NUPES-ENS-DVG) in Lot. That's already more than in 2017.

[jaichind]

RN total vote already exceeds FN first-round total vote in 2017

[Oryxslayer]

Lassalle's former seat will be LREM+ - NUPES runoff.

RN total vote already exceeds FN first-round total vote in 2017

That'll come down. People really forget that the urban polls close later and their votes come therefore slower...

[Hash]

Also a bad defeat for the one Zemmourista incumbent, the loathesome Guillaume Peltier in Loir-et-Cher-2

RN 24.04
ENS 20.28
LR 17.28
NUPES 16.97
R! 13.99

Good riddance to a truly slimy little man.

[Hash]

Really loved this catfight between the random RN hack lady and Gilbert Collard (ex-RN now Zemmourista) on France2. Keep going guys.

[Mike88]

The predictions are now being updated. Ifop now has Ensemble and NUPES both at 25.9%.

[Logical]

Another RN-ENS-NUPES triangulaire in Nièvre-2nd

[parochial boy]

Blanquer eliminated in the first round. I am being totally neutral and objective in saying the following:

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Adieu et bon débarras!!

[Mike88]

Ensemble has elected a MP on the first round. Not sure from where.

[Shilly]

Ensemble has elected a MP on the first round. Not sure from where.

It's in Mayenne-3rd.

[Mike88]

Ensemble has elected a MP on the first round. Not sure from where.

It's in Mayenne-3rd.

Yep:

57.1% Ensemble
19.3% NUPES
15.9% RN

The Ensemble's candidate, M. Yannick Favennec, got 26.49% of registered voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Zemmour officially out.

[Hash]

Florian Philippot, now some anti-vaxx far-right freak, won just 4.62% in Moselle-6, in sixth place.

[Former President tack50]

Nationwide results: 55% counted

24.1% Ensemble
21.8% NUPES
21.7% RN
11.3% LR
  3.9% DG
  3.8% Reconquête !
  3.1% DD
  2.3% Ecologists
  1.9% Regional parties
  1.5% DC
  1.2% Sovereign parties
  3.4% Others

47.3% Turnout

So basically an overperformance for RN and LR? That is certainly not what I expected.