2022 French legislatives

[Continential]

Since we know who will get into the first round, I might as well create a thread on the legislatives since there obviously will be discussion on it.

[Coldstream]

It’ll be interesting to see whether Le Pen can finally make a breakthrough at the legislative level, or whether the run off dooms her party like it did in 2017. I sneakily think that the two round system make allow the PS/LR to survive again because Macron voters would support people from those parties over RN/LFI candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

So there is a lot more moving parts here than in the presidential contest. All this assumes Macon wins round 2 by between 2 and 12%.

Lets start with the most simple, LREM holds a lot of the territory 'natural' for the urban Left parties after 2017. The main opposition right now is LR/UDI. Macron's identity shift towards the traditional right, while still retaining a good chunk of those who once voted PS, has weakened LR. They attempted to counter this by trying to draw from the Far Right's pool of voters, but failed and ended up much weaker and looking like an inferior LREM. In a quest to retain their majority, LREM should be playing for gains and an attempt to repeat what they did to PS in 2017, only now with LR.

That said, a lot of the territory held by LR was won by Le Pen. FN will also be looking for a breakthrough. In their favor is an increased poll of far right voters, and a somewhat normalization when it comes to the right. Working against them is the disgust the majority of the electorate in many seats still holds. In a good chunk of seats, voters will line up against FN no matter the opponent. LREM holds a good chunk of their seats cause FN was their opponent. FN are in a better position to make gains, but these might be limited.

Similarly, the left Parties will be looking for gains at LREM's expense. There are two issues. One, Melenchon is in the strongest position electorally, but he is not a good legislative campaigner when compare to the national presidential elections. Other left options might appear more attractive the goals are more limited and the focus more local. This could lead to a potential failure when it comes to voter energy, electability arguments, and general issues stemming from disunity. Two, they face an incumbent LREM which will unite the voters to the right of whatever party makes it to the runoff with them. So their gains also might be limited.

So right now, I expect LREM+ to remain similarly size, with their opposition fragmenting. The left and the far right might make some gains, but LR will see further losses.

[SunSt0rm]

Is there any chance some parties on the left may work together and make deals like PS&EELV, FI&PCF for the legislative election, or will each of them all present their own candidates in all those districts and fight each other?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any chance some parties on the left may work together and make deals like PS&EELV, FI&PCF for the legislative election, or will each of them all present their own candidates in all those districts and fight each other?

Yes and no. Yes, the PS and EELV were fully running their presidential candidates with the intention of gaining leverage over the other in legislative negotiations, so one assumes they and maybe a few others will come together. No in that Melenchon probably won't work with anyone given how he does things, so there will probably be fragmentation between the parties who wouldn't work with PS, but are blocked from working with him, leaving the field with several 'socialistic' tickets.

[MaxQue]

Is there any chance some parties on the left may work together and make deals like PS&EELV, FI&PCF for the legislative election, or will each of them all present their own candidates in all those districts and fight each other?

Yes and no. Yes, the PS and EELV were fully running their presidential candidates with the intention of gaining leverage over the other in legislative negotiations, so one assumes they and maybe a few others will come together. No in that Melenchon probably won't work with anyone given how he does things, so there will probably be fragmentation between the parties who wouldn't work with PS, but are blocked from working with him, leaving the field with several 'socialistic' tickets.

Last month, FI proposed a deal to EELV last month. EELV refused any deal before the presidential election 1st round (they did the same to the PS and the PCF).

The PCF tried to offer a deal to FI, they refused, they are negociating with the PS, but the PCF itself seems to be very divided on it.

[Biden 2024]

Is there any chance some parties on the left may work together and make deals like PS&EELV, FI&PCF for the legislative election, or will each of them all present their own candidates in all those districts and fight each other?

Yes and no. Yes, the PS and EELV were fully running their presidential candidates with the intention of gaining leverage over the other in legislative negotiations, so one assumes they and maybe a few others will come together. No in that Melenchon probably won't work with anyone given how he does things, so there will probably be fragmentation between the parties who wouldn't work with PS, but are blocked from working with him, leaving the field with several 'socialistic' tickets.

Last month, FI proposed a deal to EELV last month. EELV refused any deal before the presidential election 1st round (they did the same to the PS and the PCF).

The PCF tried to offer a deal to FI, they refused, they are negociating with the PS, but the PCF itself seems to be very divided on it.

Reminds me of the PCF/FI debacle in '17! Bunch of "good" (relative terms) LFI candidates back then that deserved to win (RIP Liem Hồng Ngọc).

[PSOL]

I honestly think that one thing the French left should embrace is more sectarianism. Melenchon did best when he threw out the sovereignists and hit hard against the liberals and labor bureaucrats. The events in Serbia and Hungary in my mind shows the fact that grand coalitions are overrated and turn off the electorate as there isn’t any tailoring to the niche interests that make up a population. Everyone sort of doing their own thing works best in gaining power.

After all, the French left’s habit of grand coalitions usually screws working people over with compromised candidates like Mitterrand. And due to its unique history, the French left uniting isn’t something left wing voters want as they have exceptionally bad blood over themselves. This sort of thing isn’t how grassroots politics operates, it works best to be democratic and decentralized so as to be dynamic to major changes and hard to swat down in crackdowns.

[Zinneke]

LR have, errr, ran out of money and will likely run a skeletal campaign.

I still think the Left should get over itself and realise THIS is their election rather than the personalist sh**tshow that is the presidential one. Macron having to govern with the Left is a sound outcome. He can do the broad line foreign and defence policy (the only buttons on the Presidential dashboard that actually work anyway) and they can lead the social reforms required. LFI minus the Putinist alter-globalist Chavista-loving tosh is a program that can work.

However, Mélenchon and his cultists have typically started things off as undiplomatically as possible - by saying that they will only accept allianced with the smaller Left parties if these "accept the LFI program" - typically triumphalist "No True Scotsman" guff instead of just being extremely machiavellian and adapting their program according to what works best with xyz electorate.

https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/1514165591535501321

Imagine thinking this tone is conciliatory and Jadot and Roussel will suddenly wake up, read it and cuck themselves so easily.

[Oryxslayer]

LR have, errr, ran out of money and will likely run a skeletal campaign.

Furthers my belief that LR will see their 2017 results will get eaten from both sides, look to find some accommodation with Macron and run LR politicians alongside the presidential majority, or a bit of both.

Also from that tweet chain is: "When we are in favor of proportional representation in the elections, we propose to apply it for the legislative elections." So essentially this means that if all the Left parties band together with Melenchon, the endorsed candidate list would be about 2/3's LFI. And who knows yet if these would be equitably distributed, with LFI taking all the realistic gains not already held by one or another left party's incumbents.

[Oryxslayer]

Time to bump this. Apparently there is serious talk about a full "Union Populare" on the left, and a potential enjoining at least some of the parliamentary majority to the Presidential majority ticket.

[Mike88]

1st poll for the legislative elections, from Harris Interactive:

Vote share %:

24% LREM and allies
23% RN
19% LFI
  8% Les Verts
  8% LR and allies
  7% Reconquête!
  5% PS and allies
  3% PCF
  1% LO/NPA
  1% DFL
  1% Others
 
Seats:

328/368 LREM and allies
  75/105 RN
    35/65 LR and allies
    25/45 LFI
    20/40 PS and allies
      5/10 PCF
        1/5 Les Verts
        3/7 Others

From here: https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1518631584676593665

[Oryxslayer]

1st poll for the legislative elections, from Harris Interactive:

Vote share %:

24% LREM and allies
23% RN
19% LFI
 8% Les Verts
 8% LR and allies
  7% Reconquête!
 5% PS and allies
 3% PCF
 1% LO/NPA
 1% DFL
 1% Others
  
Seats:

328/368 LREM and allies
 75/105 RN
   35/65 LR and allies
   25/45 LFI
   20/40 PS and allies
     5/10 PCF
       1/5 Les Verts
       3/7 Others

From here: https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1518631584676593665

To add on, they tested a 'three-pronged' alignment, something that many not be so hypothetical depending what the future holds.




326-366 for LREM+LR and allies
117-147 for RN and allies
73-93 for Left Union

I have much more to say in the coming weeks, but suffice to say that the poll reflects my starting point for this contest. LREM+ either cleans up or absorbs the clutter of the old pillars. The Far right now has so many 'free' seats where they got thumping plurality/majority in round 1 that they could make numerous gains even with their traditional barriers. Meanwhile the left vote is much more concentrated - allowing for easier gains - but imposes a thick ceiling even under a unified ticket.

[Mike88]

326-366 for LREM+LR and allies
117-147 for RN and allies
73-93 for Left Union

In that scenario the share of vote by coalition would be the following:

33% LREM+LR and allies
33% Left Union
31% RN+R! and allies
  2% LO/NPA
  1% Others

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Coalition talk between LFI and PS, LFI and EELV and generally all of them are hilarious as usual. I would be shocked if there will be any deal with LFI.

[Lief 🗽]

It’s not gonna happen but it would be great if it did.
https://twitter.com/2022elections/status/1519731556562186240?s=21

[Oryxslayer]

It’s not gonna happen but it would be great if it did.
https://twitter.com/2022elections/status/1519731556562186240?s=21

Would be great, but this likely still produces a LREM+ majority or plurality in the end. Left and Far Right vote is comparatively concentrated, LREM vote dispersed. So the vast, vast majority of contests end up as LREM vs FN or LREM vs Left front, and LREM+ wins enough of those engagements through enough local voter consolidation of the opposing side of the spectrum to become the largest group by far. Which is one large reason why the Harris poll has 24% LREM vote equaling a majority of seats. Hell, the finding are essentially the same as the Harris poll's hypothetical percentages, just with LR+ separated from LREM+.

Now "Left-aligned" consolidation is still valuable. It informs voters to not stay home or vote for a different candidate if their chosen factional leftist party did not advance. It expands the playing field notably, based off round 1 data. Finally, you are just going to see a lot more socialists in runoffs with LREM, rather than LR and FN.

For there to be a rejection of History and LREM+ to not get a majority or a near-majority, there would need to be a reversal of the traditional turnout variables that favor the presidential party, something we have no evidence yet to suggest will happen.

[brucejoel99]

Seats:
  75/105 RN

That RN is now capable of 75-105 is insane & a bad breakthrough in the 2-round system that's meant to block extremists.

[parochial boy]

The PS have announced they will align themselves to LFI's programme ahead of an eventual alliance for the legislatives. Which is... suprising to be honest. Obviously much internal anger in the party, Cambadélis and Le Foll were reportedly very unhappy with the negotiations that were happening up until now. But all tentative steps in the right direction, and happening with enough urgency to seem possible. Génération.S also signed up, but, er, it's a bit optimistic refering to them in the plural these days.

Remains to be seen the EELV do - Jadot seemed quite down on the prospects on France Inter the other day; at least, down on the idea of being subsumed by LFI. So we'll see if either party gives a bit of ground.

[Oryxslayer]

Seats:
 75/105 RN

That RN is now capable of 75-105 is insane & a bad breakthrough in the 2-round system that's meant to block extremists.

Also speaks to the collapse of the traditional parties that benefited from the system. There are around 100 seats where the far right won large pluralities based on round 1 data, and most of these  seats lacked a viable alternative. In 2017, even in places that they won like Aisne, the extreme right was blocked by strong LR+ vote that would consolidate against them, no matter who advanced. That is basically gone now and most of FN's best seats will end up as FN-LREM runoffs based on the size of both parties initial base vote. This situation is now sadly likely to give FN seats, though thankfully it only predominates in a limited number of seats.

[Continential]

Could you see Le Foll defecting to LREM+?

[EastAnglianLefty]

It’s not gonna happen but it would be great if it did.
https://twitter.com/2022elections/status/1519731556562186240?s=21

Would be great, but this likely still produces a LREM+ majority or plurality in the end. Left and Far Right vote is comparatively concentrated, LREM vote dispersed. So the vast, vast majority of contests end up as LREM vs FN or LREM vs Left front, and LREM+ wins enough of those engagements through enough local voter consolidation of the opposing side of the spectrum to become the largest group by far. Which is one large reason why the Harris poll has 24% LREM vote equaling a majority of seats. Hell, the finding are essentially the same as the Harris poll's hypothetical percentages, just with LR+ separated from LREM+.

Now "Left-aligned" consolidation is still valuable. It informs voters to not stay home or vote for a different candidate if their chosen factional leftist party did not advance. It expands the playing field notably, based off round 1 data. Finally, you are just going to see a lot more socialists in runoffs with LREM, rather than LR and FN.

For there to be a rejection of History and LREM+ to not get a majority or a near-majority, there would need to be a reversal of the traditional turnout variables that favor the presidential party, something we have no evidence yet to suggest will happen.

Do we have any idea how the FN vote is likely to go in Left/LREM contests?

[Oryxslayer]

It’s not gonna happen but it would be great if it did.
https://twitter.com/2022elections/status/1519731556562186240?s=21

Would be great, but this likely still produces a LREM+ majority or plurality in the end. Left and Far Right vote is comparatively concentrated, LREM vote dispersed. So the vast, vast majority of contests end up as LREM vs FN or LREM vs Left front, and LREM+ wins enough of those engagements through enough local voter consolidation of the opposing side of the spectrum to become the largest group by far. Which is one large reason why the Harris poll has 24% LREM vote equaling a majority of seats. Hell, the finding are essentially the same as the Harris poll's hypothetical percentages, just with LR+ separated from LREM+.

Now "Left-aligned" consolidation is still valuable. It informs voters to not stay home or vote for a different candidate if their chosen factional leftist party did not advance. It expands the playing field notably, based off round 1 data. Finally, you are just going to see a lot more socialists in runoffs with LREM, rather than LR and FN.

For there to be a rejection of History and LREM+ to not get a majority or a near-majority, there would need to be a reversal of the traditional turnout variables that favor the presidential party, something we have no evidence yet to suggest will happen.

Do we have any idea how the FN vote is likely to go in Left/LREM contests?

No, hopefully we get polling. One could imagine them casting spiteful votes against LREM+, or one can imagine them going against the ideologically distant FI. Or abstention just dominates, like it did with leftists in the Le Pen - Macron round. That might be the safer bet, but in the end it is probably a case of local peculiarities and candidates.

In 2017 there were some seats that RN (then FN) got decent results but failed to advance in. Most of these were LR+ vs LREM+ runoffs - cause said seats were in the rural north and south coast where LR+ was historically strong - and RN voters consistently gave the runoff victory to LR+ even when LREM+ finished first in round 1. Though one can imagine such transfers easier than to LREM or the Left, given ideological, cultural, and spite all aligning in favor of LR+.

[S019]

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/legislatives-ecologistes-et-socialistes-proches-dun-accord-avec-la-france-insoumise-1403893

An update on the earlier news, PS has suspended negotiations, at least for now, citing LFI's "hegemonic logic" among other things.

[warandwar]

https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/legislatives-ecologistes-et-socialistes-proches-dun-accord-avec-la-france-insoumise-1403893

An update on the earlier news, PS has suspended negotiations, at least for now, citing LFI's "hegemonic logic" among other things.

So they agree to essentially every policy concession, but now back away? I think this all boils down to local PS chiefs afraid of losing their sinecures rather than any serious "hegemonic logic."