2022 French legislatives

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1534494798555529218?s=20&t=gMMijWeHq...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1534496893706948609?s=20&t=gMMijWeHq...

Final Ipsos model. Little change at all since first poll, and an unsurprisingly massive age gap that benefits LREM.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

[Lief 🗽]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

Vibes are a more powerful electoral tool than implementing actual policy.

[jaichind]

I assume if Nupes holds the pro-Macron bloc to below 289 seats he will do a deal with LR to get to a majority?

[Icehand Gino]

I assume if Nupes holds the pro-Macron bloc to below 289 seats he will do a deal with LR to get to a majority?

Either they'll do this, or do like Rocard in 1988 (minority Government and trying to get either LR votes or moderate NUPES votes to pass laws)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

Vibes are a more powerful electoral tool than implementing actual policy.

Well if being leftist is getting one or two extra muppets to rant in the legislature rather than actually changing society sure NUPES is great. In terms of changing french society, not so much.

[Lief 🗽]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

Vibes are a more powerful electoral tool than implementing actual policy.

Well if being leftist is getting one or two extra muppets to rant in the legislature rather than actually changing society sure NUPES is great. In terms of changing french society, not so much.

I’m hardly a fan on Melenchon and his band of racist tankies, but IMO a France where Macron’s party does not have full power and where the strongest opposition group is of the left rather than Nazis (which was where we were heading before the coalition agreement) is still a good thing, even if the practical differences will be fairly small.

[Babeuf]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

Vibes are a more powerful electoral tool than implementing actual policy.

Well if being leftist is getting one or two extra muppets to rant in the legislature rather than actually changing society sure NUPES is great. In terms of changing french society, not so much.

The alternative to NUPES was allowing egos to take precedence (like the presidential election) and running separately, making a small minority of second rounds and having no chance at power. Whatever you think of Melenchon and allying with him, with the creation of NUPES they will reach vastly more second rounds. While they almost certainly won't win a majority, NUPES is the far more serious approach to changing French society than what the left has been doing since 2017.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

Vibes are a more powerful electoral tool than implementing actual policy.

Well if being leftist is getting one or two extra muppets to rant in the legislature rather than actually changing society sure NUPES is great. In terms of changing french society, not so much.

The alternative to NUPES was allowing egos to take precedence (like the presidential election) and running separately, making a small minority of second rounds and having no chance at power. Whatever you think of Melenchon and allying with him, with the creation of NUPES they will reach vastly more second rounds. While they almost certainly won't win a majority, NUPES is the far more serious approach to changing French society than what the left has been doing since 2017.

Yeah, I have no idea what ostensibly left-leaning NUPES critics actually want. It's pretty easy to say all the ways in which it's not ideal, but what part of it would be improved by all the left-wing parties running separately? That's the surefire way of ensuring that the French left becomes completely irrelevant in the political landscape. Which I guess it's fine if you believe in the kind of bogus centrism Macron is peddling, but terrible if you actually think working people in French deserves a voice that isn't rabidly xenophobic and reactionary.

[MaxQue]

The youth being on the right side.

NUPES is historic and the dream coalition.

This is what "being leftist" is like.

So Being leftist is a "vibe" and not implementing actual policy ?, sounds about right.

Vibes are a more powerful electoral tool than implementing actual policy.

Well if being leftist is getting one or two extra muppets to rant in the legislature rather than actually changing society sure NUPES is great. In terms of changing french society, not so much.

The alternative to NUPES was allowing egos to take precedence (like the presidential election) and running separately, making a small minority of second rounds and having no chance at power. Whatever you think of Melenchon and allying with him, with the creation of NUPES they will reach vastly more second rounds. While they almost certainly won't win a majority, NUPES is the far more serious approach to changing French society than what the left has been doing since 2017.

Yeah, I have no idea what ostensibly left-leaning NUPES critics actually want. It's pretty easy to say all the ways in which it's not ideal, but what part of it would be improved by all the left-wing parties running separately? That's the surefire way of ensuring that the French left becomes completely irrelevant in the political landscape. Which I guess it's fine if you believe in the kind of bogus centrism Macron is peddling, but terrible if you actually think working people in French deserves a voice that isn't rabidly xenophobic and reactionary.

There is barely any of those as most of them are actually centrists pretending to be left-wing.

[MRCVzla]

Electoral silence now, today will vote in 1st round the DOM-TOMs from the Americas (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin).

Final Ipsos poll (estimated turnout around 45-49%)



Final Cluster17 poll


Final Elabe poll



Final Harris poll



Final OpinionWay poll



Final Ifop poll (estimated turnout 46%)



Results/candidate list page updated with the Council of State decision in favour of a NUPES nuance (called "NUP", dissidents from PCF, LFI or PS are going between the DXG or DVG nuances)
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/index.html

[Oryxslayer]

Thanks for adding all that, I was waiting until today so as to see if we got any "Belgian Fruit Cart Surveys" or things of that nature to add to the list.



Anyway, given that this is the first round, only a limited number of questions will be answered. If anyone wishes to do predictions, here are what I feel are the most interesting potential developments:

- How and who will be elected outright on the First Round? This requires not just >50% of votes, but >25% of the registered voters. So if turnout is 50%, then a simple majority is all that is necessary, but the lower the turnout, the more votes needed. 2017 was an insurgent election so there were only 4 such First Round victories, lower than previously. 2022 has a lot more LREM+ incumbents in places that should be safe, and similarly so with NUPES in Saint Dennis. However, there will always be some opposition, no matter the seat.

- In a similar vein will Melenchon and Le Pen win in Round 1? Melenchon should sweep his seat, but turnout in urban Marseilles is such that more than 50% is probably needed. Similarly, we have a grain of salt that suggests Le Pen is close to the majority threshold, but she also likely needs a bit more that 50% to lock up a First round victory.

- Number of Triangulaire or three-way contests. Remember that candidates need 12.5% of all registered voters, so in practice this means 25% or more of the overall vote. Its not just good enough for there to be three consolidated pillars. In 2017 there was only 1 Triangulaire and there should be more this time. However, not a overwhelming surge of them given that the votes will not match the first presidential vote 1:1, the most viable candidates in a seat will naturally attract a bit more voters than they should based on the national percentages, and the structural barriers outlined above.

- Who comes in first, NUPES or the Ensemble LREM+ Alliance? Polls suggest its a tossup, though it matters very little. You could say that NUPES outperforms like Melenchon did in round 1. However, NUPES lacks the momentum seen in the last week of that contest. Turnout will also be lower, and its safer to bet on the alliance who has more reliable voters than the one with more transient ones.

- What will be the approximate ratio of the runoffs? Or how many NUPES vs LREM+ in regards to NUPES vs RN and LREM+ vs RN. The former will be most common, but RN will get into the runoff in at least 100 seats, likely more.

- How many runoff candidates for parties outside the big three? LR+ is struggling hard, and will lose a lot of their incumbents. They will however be the main opposition to LREM+ in areas like Yvelines, so there may be a decent number of candidates, even if they are destined to lose. The minor parties, for their part, are mostly mostly focusing on specific target seats. 

- Similarly, will Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan advance? D-A is in Essonne, which is not friendly turf for what his politics represent anymore, but he is the incumbent. Zemmour meanwhile is likelier to win overall, but he needs to get into a 1 v 1 runoff and cannot go to a three-way vs LREM and RN.

- Will anyone prominent for one reason or another, like Valls last week, miss the runoff?

[Antonio the Sixth]

- In a similar vein will Melenchon and Le Pen win in Round 1? Melenchon should sweep his seat, but turnout in urban Marseilles is such that more than 50% is probably needed. Similarly, we have a grain of salt that suggests Le Pen is close to the majority threshold, but she also likely needs a bit more that 50% to lock up a First round victory.

Mélenchon isn't running for reelection this year, as he chose to instead dedicate himself fully to the nationwide NUPES campaign (this has concrete implications in terms of allotted speaking time, so that might be part of the consideration here). Will be interesting to see how well NUPES does in his constituency, though.

[Mike88]

Just read an interview of Alexis Corbière, the spokesperson for NUPES, which said that the inspiration for NUPES was the Portuguese Geringonça. He added that Portugal showed that "there was a country that resisted" when there "liberals" controlling the rest of Europe.

Summary of the interview: https://observador.pt/2022/06/11/__trashed-655/

I'm sorry, but this guy looks like a farmer talking about aerospace engineering. He clearly doesn't know what he's talking about, as, it's now clear, that the "Geringonça" was the kiss of death for the leftwing in Portugal. Not the best inspiration for this alliance, IMO.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just read an interview of Alexis Corbière, the spokesperson for NUPES, which said that the inspiration for NUPES was the Portuguese Geringonça. He added that Portugal showed that "there was a country that resisted" when there "liberals" controlling the rest of Europe.

Summary of the interview: https://observador.pt/2022/06/11/__trashed-655/

I'm sorry, but this guy looks like a farmer talking about aerospace engineering. He clearly doesn't know what he's talking about, as, it's now clear, that the "Geringonça" was the kiss of death for the leftwing in Portugal. Not the best inspiration for this alliance, IMO.

I mean it's obviously a huge oversimplification (as is almost any time any politician talks about another country's politics), but the fact does remain that Portugal is better off now because it disregarded many of the Troika's recommendations back in 2015, and that is something worth keeping in mind when we view EU fiscal agreements as sacrosanct.

(FWIW, I'm not a fan of the way NUPES framed its position on the EU. There are sometimes valid reasons to disobey EU rules - and France does do that currently on a whole slew of issues, as does Germany and plenty other "virtuous" countries - but putting it into writing and broadcasting it to the world serves no purpose except needlessly alienating people you still need on your side and ultimately undermine efforts to improve the EU. So I wish Mélenchon hadn't been so dogmatic on this point, but if he wasn't dogmatic he wouldn't be Mélenchon.)

[parochial boy]

I mean it's obviously a huge oversimplification (as is almost any time any politician talks about another country's politics), but the fact does remain that Portugal is better off now because it disregarded many of the Troika's recommendations back in 2015, and that is something worth keeping in mind when we view EU fiscal agreements as sacrosanct.

Yeah that's the thing. I mean it's hard not to conclude that the PS did make some big tactical mistakes in hitching itself too closely to the Maastricht rules and the EU-as-it-currently existed. As much as anything because it led to an unhealthy conflation whereby any criticism of the EU was made out as being criticism of the European project in itself. Which is completely insane, you should be able to affirm that you attached to the ideals of the EU all the while being able to criticise the institutions and treaties as they currently exist. Just as criticising the electoral college or the absence of universal healthcare obviously doesn't mean that you hate America.

In that respect, it's noteworthy that a guy like Piketty - who is the polar opposite of a souverainiste europhobe - is behind NUPES. The tactic is hard headed, but I would be cautiously optimistic that one of the big motors of European Integration that is France starting to push back against the deficit and "competition" fetishism would get a bit more engagement from the likes of the Germans than Syriza ever did.

[Mike88]

I mean it's obviously a huge oversimplification (as is almost any time any politician talks about another country's politics), but the fact does remain that Portugal is better off now because it disregarded many of the Troika's recommendations back in 2015, and that is something worth keeping in mind when we view EU fiscal agreements as sacrosanct.

(FWIW, I'm not a fan of the way NUPES framed its position on the EU. There are sometimes valid reasons to disobey EU rules - and France does do that currently on a whole slew of issues, as does Germany and plenty other "virtuous" countries - but putting it into writing and broadcasting it to the world serves no purpose except needlessly alienating people you still need on your side and ultimately undermine efforts to improve the EU. So I wish Mélenchon hadn't been so dogmatic on this point, but if he wasn't dogmatic he wouldn't be Mélenchon.)

But that's the point, I believe that many on the left, saw the Geringonça experiment as model and something that worked and, sure it's oversimplification, like you said, but the issue is that, and it's a very interesting discussion, did it gave positive results? It's off topic from this board of course, but I'm not sure the country improved, because the PS used the left and, in the end, this "hopefull" experiment for the left, turned out to be it's ultimate downfall.

And yeah, Mélenchon positions regarding the EU are just... whatever, without comments. But I agree, that sometimes EU rules are broken, some are so weird that government's have no choice like VAT on energy, but, yeah, shouting them to the world is going to backfire. Also, and this is my opinion, Mélenchon is so full of himself that I think that hurts him a lot.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535754758601990144?s=20&t=a6dX5wC9G...

Anyway, back on topic, to preview the main event. I'm not informed enough about local politics to comment, but in 2017 the result was marginal, and if you supposedly add the blocks as defined together, you get another 50-50 runoff.

[warandwar]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535754758601990144?s=20&t=a6dX5wC9G...

Anyway, back on topic, to preview the main event. I'm not informed enough about local politics to comment, but in 2017 the result was marginal, and if you supposedly add the blocks as defined together, you get another 50-50 runoff.

The current LREM deputy faced some heat for covid stuff. So i guess rightish local politician with strong opinions about fish quotas or whatever vs based basque LFI guy follows...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting. Really terrible result for Ensemble, but SP&M is a weird place, and Macronism tanking in the DTOMs is no surprise at this point. Sounds like NUPES might have a decent shot in the runoff, but again, so many unknowns apply here.

But that's the point, I believe that many on the left, saw the Geringonça experiment as model and something that worked and, sure it's oversimplification, like you said, but the issue is that, and it's a very interesting discussion, did it gave positive results? It's off topic from this board of course, but I'm not sure the country improved, because the PS used the left and, in the end, this "hopefull" experiment for the left, turned out to be it's ultimate downfall.

I mean, the electoral fortunes of the Portuguese left are one thing, but I think everyone can agree that the Geringonça government did a far better job of stirring the Portuguese economy compared to the other PIIGS countries that went through devastating austerity programs. Which was clearly Corbières' point here. Again, as a parallel it has obvious limits, but I don't think we need to overinterpret it either.

[Mike88]

Interesting. Really terrible result for Ensemble, but SP&M is a weird place, and Macronism tanking in the DTOMs is no surprise at this point. Sounds like NUPES might have a decent shot in the runoff, but again, so many unknowns apply here.

But that's the point, I believe that many on the left, saw the Geringonça experiment as model and something that worked and, sure it's oversimplification, like you said, but the issue is that, and it's a very interesting discussion, did it gave positive results? It's off topic from this board of course, but I'm not sure the country improved, because the PS used the left and, in the end, this "hopefull" experiment for the left, turned out to be it's ultimate downfall.

I mean, the electoral fortunes of the Portuguese left are one thing, but I think everyone can agree that the Geringonça government did a far better job of stirring the Portuguese economy compared to the other PIIGS countries that went through devastating austerity programs. Which was clearly Corbières' point here. Again, as a parallel it has obvious limits, but I don't think we need to overinterpret it either.

Don't want to go derailing the topic, but that isn't black and white, and there are other points to be given and discussed. But anyway, like you said, the parallel has it's limits, especially when Costa and Macron are quite close politically.

[Oryxslayer]

Once again, don't have much to say other than Macronism holding up rather well in a overseas region. I would ignore the labels for the minors cause there are a lot of local parties that are aesthetically 'left' but whose supporters have other reasons for their vote, similar to some other Caribbean countries. Comparing to 2017 and the by-election though suggests a narrow runoff.



This ones even more localized.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean these islands are among the most traditionally Conservative overseas regions (>13% for Zemmour 👀) but this is still a massive surge for LREM+. Perhaps signals the bloodbath that is to come for LR+ on the mainland...

[warandwar]

Once again, don't have much to say other than Macronism holding up rather well in a overseas region. I would ignore the labels for the minors cause there are a lot of local parties that are aesthetically 'left' but whose supporters have other reasons for their vote, similar to some other Caribbean countries. Comparing to 2017 and the by-election though suggests a narrow runoff.



This ones even more localized.

No Davy Rimane and others are definitely "left" in a very political, anti-colonial way. I think this is the third straight runoff between the two...

St. Martin and St. Barths almost certainly comes back to covid. It devastated tourist-dependent colonies in the caribbean so i'm not surprised voters would ditch the incumbent (part of a larger trend in the region).