2022 French legislatives

[Mike88]

Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

4 for NUPES - Corbière in the 93, and three in Paris (two of them non-incumbents in LREM-held seats)

Yes, weird that the Interior Minister website isn't updating that.

Not, sure but it seems that all ballots are now counted. The number of registered voters tallied is just 15,000 less than the Presidential election. And Ensemble is just 14,133 votes ahead of NUPES nationwide.

No, forget about it, the 12th and 13th constituencies in Paris are still to be announced. The 12th seems to be a ENS big win, possibly elected in the first round. From the 13th, nothing is in yet.

Ensemble's lead down to just above 10,000 nationwide.

[Andrea]

Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

4 for NUPES - Corbière in the 93, and three in Paris (two of them non-incumbents in LREM-held seats)

Yes, weird that the Interior Minister website isn't updating that.

Not, sure but it seems that all ballots are now counted. The number of registered voters tallied is just 15,000 less than the Presidential election. And Ensemble is just 14,133 votes ahead of NUPES nationwide.

No, forget about it, the 12th and 13th constituencies in Paris are still to be announced. The 12th seems to be a ENS big win, possibly elected in the first round. From the 13th, nothing is in yet.

Ensemble's lead down to just above 10,000 nationwide.

13th had ENS leading in the first results (not yet on ministry website)

https://twitter.com/Weatherboy_fr/status/1536104196340170753/photo/1

[Babeuf]

According to Le Monde, here are how many seats each major grouping is ahead in:

Ensemble - 203
NUPES - 194
RN - 110
LR-UDI - 42

Of course, this only tells us so much as many seats are very close between the leader and the runner-up, Ensemble should (theoretically) be more transfer friendly than the others, and RN has always struggled to convert first round leads into second round wins due to their stigma.

[Mike88]

Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

4 for NUPES - Corbière in the 93, and three in Paris (two of them non-incumbents in LREM-held seats)

Yes, weird that the Interior Minister website isn't updating that.

Not, sure but it seems that all ballots are now counted. The number of registered voters tallied is just 15,000 less than the Presidential election. And Ensemble is just 14,133 votes ahead of NUPES nationwide.

No, forget about it, the 12th and 13th constituencies in Paris are still to be announced. The 12th seems to be a ENS big win, possibly elected in the first round. From the 13th, nothing is in yet.

Ensemble's lead down to just above 10,000 nationwide.

13th had ENS leading in the first results (not yet on ministry website)

https://twitter.com/Weatherboy_fr/status/1536104196340170753/photo/1

ENS will face NUPES in the runoff in that district, 38.1% vs 30.5%.

Also, all the ballots are now counted. Nationwide, Ensemble polled ahead of NUPES by around 21,000 votes:

25.8% Ensemble, 1 seat
25.7% NUPES, 4
18.7% RN
11.3% LR/UDI
  4.2% Reconquête!
  3.1% DG
  2.7% Ecologists
  2.3% DD
  1.3% Regional parties
  1.2% DC
  1.2% DEG
  1.1% Rightwing sovereignists
  1.4% Others

47.5% Turnout

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting results. Both Ensembles and NUPES underperformed slightly, but are well within the margin of error. Particularly pitiful result for Ensemble, as they're barely ahead (according to the Interior Ministry's results - Le Monde, which uses more sensible categories, actually has NUPES slightly ahead) but their result is historically weak for a presidential party. RN didn't really overperform its polling, but the fact that it didn't underperform them is notable, and might have major implications for the runoff. The traditional right is the only force that overperformed (although even then, just by a couple points when all is said and done) and they will remain a presence in the coming legislature, which was far from a given.

The runoffs will be a mess. I've been spending the evening compiling a map of the runoff situations in each constituency, and I've had to use so many different colors that even I can't keep track. I'll have to refine it and use cruder categories to have any chance of making sense of it, but either way, that means this is still wide open. It seems there's a real chance of depriving Ensemble of an absolute majority, though, which would make the next 5 years a lot more interesting than we might have expected (in addition to being, frankly, better for democracy, since it's patently obvious today that Ensemble has no national mandate to govern). See you next Sunday, I guess.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yeah Ensemble shouldn't win in the second round.

And to be fair, if i'd live in France and i'd live in a RN vs Ensemble district, i'd likely vote RN in cases where RN can deprive them from a seat. Just to prevent Ensemble from getting a majority, and not because I want RN to win. The priority is to prevent Macron from having a parliament in favour of him.

RN is gonna be a nonplayer anyways, they'll have like 20 to 40 seats.

But i would always vote NUPES when they're on the ballot. NUPES is the best alliance ever (and i'd always in every circumstance vote for them in 1st round). 2nd round is more strategical.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So likely consequence here is an Ensemble-Republican coalition?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yeah Ensemble shouldn't win in the second round.

And to be fair, if i'd live in France and i'd live in a RN vs Ensemble district, i'd likely vote RN in cases where RN can deprive them from a seat. Just to prevent Ensemble from getting a majority, and not because I want RN to win. The priority is to prevent Macron from having a parliament in favour of him.

RN is gonna be a nonplayer anyways, they'll have like 20 to 40 seats.

But i would always vote NUPES when they're on the ballot. NUPES is the best alliance ever (and i'd always in every circumstance vote for them in 1st round). 2nd round is more strategical.

When has leftists voting for facists to own the centerist ever backfired.?. You can grab a complimentary portrait of Thälmann over there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sylvia Pinel defeated in her constituency. Is the PRG now just Falorni?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yeah Ensemble shouldn't win in the second round.

And to be fair, if i'd live in France and i'd live in a RN vs Ensemble district, i'd likely vote RN in cases where RN can deprive them from a seat. Just to prevent Ensemble from getting a majority, and not because I want RN to win. The priority is to prevent Macron from having a parliament in favour of him.

RN is gonna be a nonplayer anyways, they'll have like 20 to 40 seats.

But i would always vote NUPES when they're on the ballot. NUPES is the best alliance ever (and i'd always in every circumstance vote for them in 1st round). 2nd round is more strategical.

When has leftists voting for facists to own the centerist ever backfired.?. You can grab a complimentary portrait of Thälmann over there.

RN isn't a threat if they only manage to get like 20-40 seats... RN having a few extra seats to deprive Ensemble from majority is better, even if i strongly disagree with RN and think they're disgusting, it's strategically the superior choice.

Macron and his party is a horrible human being and a horrible movement that i don't want to support, especially if i think the democracy in France is failing because of this ridicilous system.

If you don't want me to vote far-right or fascist or nazi... Perhaps make sure there's a leftist option on the ballot. With leftists on the ballot, and I say "true leftists", i would never vote fascist.

But in RN vs Ensemble matchups, RN is the better option because i don't want Ensemble to have an absolute majority because it would mean there would be no opposition to Macron's policies.

Not because i wanna embolden the far-right or support their policies, but mainly because I would vote against Macron.

If you don't want that, perhaps change the system or ensure there's a leftist on the ballot or that anti-Macronistas deserve proper representation in parliament.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Tell me how this is possible

and still you end up with Ensemble having likely absolute majority (perhaps with the center right).

The congressional district system in the US, senate and electoral college are all much fairer than France's political system.

[Hash]

This map is useless and misleading, but whatever:



Probably won't make too many maps because I'm less interested and the far more interesting Colombian election is next weekend.

[Oryxslayer]

Basic runoff situation map. Uses the @ElectionMapsUK  format which I think works better for these situations where seats have multiple winners. First place gets the seat colored, second (and third) get Dots. Much simpler that having a thousand different color hues.

Yellow is for Ensemble or LREM+, and lighter yellow is for aligned independents.
Red is for NUPES main parties.
Pink is for Left Independents and NUPES rebels.
Blue-Black is for RN, and a greyer hue is for Independents and minor Far Rightists.
Blue is LR+, and grey-blue is for right Independents.
Green is for regionalists or local parties, and I used it liberally in the overseas areas, so a lighter green is needed for local party v local party runoffs.

There are 8* (TY for correction, they were all on the map already...) triangulaires and 5 directly elected candidates as noted previously by others.

Looking solely at the mainland, where the simpler ideological blocks and their labels are applicable unlike overseas (this includes the regionalist Corsica), this is the shape of the runoff in the 535 seats:

- 406 Ensemble candidates advance, 1 who is directly elected, 8 who are in triangulaires.
- 370 NUPES candidates advance, 4 who are directly elected, 8 who are in triangulaires.
- 207 RN candidates advance, 5 who are in triangulaires, along with D-A in Essonne 8 and the rebel in Herault 6.
- 76 LR/UDI+ candidates advance, 2 who are in triangulaires, and 1 minor rightist.
- 11 NUPES dissidents, left independents, or minor left party candidates advance, 1 who is in a triangulaire.
- 1 regionalist.

So what is going on here? A lot of the seats where RN advanced, they are against Ensemble. Obviously Ensemble-NUPES is the dominant runoff. The traditional right got smoked as expected, but they should in many of the seats they actually advanced in thanks to anti-FN or anti-Left consolidation, depending on the region. And that is why Ensemble is in the dominant position. Cause NUPES is in two-pillar runoffs, and while they will win a solid chunk of them, their comparative lack of opportunities over the other parties hampers opportunity.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

map

How many NUPES vs RN runoffs are there?

164 seats seem to be seats where Ensemble didn't advance (but no all of these are NUPES vs RN).

And what is the distribution in NUPES itself (how many EELV, how many PS, how many PCF and how many LFI).

[JimJamUK]

Hilariously, the one constituency that Ensemble definitively won tonight didn’t even vote for them in 2017, it voted 62% in the 2nd round for the UDI incumbent who was the Ensemble candidate this time round.

[jaichind]

Tell me how this is possible

and still you end up with Ensemble having likely absolute majority (perhaps with the center right).

The congressional district system in the US, senate and electoral college are all much fairer than France's political system.

I assume this is because there will be a good deal more ENS-RN runoffs than NUP-RN runoffs.

[Logical]

There are 7 triangulaires and 5 directly elected candidates as noted previously by others.

Reviewed every constituency and found 8 actually.
Dordogne 3rd (NUPES-ENS-RN)
Hauts de Seine 2nd (NUPES-ENS-LR)
Hauts de Seine 3rd (ENS-LR-NUPES)
Lot 2nd (NUPES-ENS-DVG)
Lot et Garonne 1st (ENS-RN-NUPES)
Lot et Garonne 2nd (RN-NUPES-ENS)
Nièvre 2nd (RN-ENS-NUPES)
Tarn 2nd (NUPES-ENS-RN)

[Continential]

Out of curiosity, has there been any politician meltdowns?

[Oryxslayer]

map

How many NUPES vs RN runoffs are there?

164 seats seem to be seats where Ensemble didn't advance (but no all of these are NUPES vs RN).

And what is the distribution in NUPES itself (how many EELV, how many PS, how many PCF and how many LFI).

Here is what I totaled for the mainland:

- 265 Ensemble vs NUPES
- 110 Ensemble vs RN
- 60 NUPES vs RN
- 20 Ensemble vs LR+
- 25 NUPES vs LR+
- 29 RN vs LR+
- 6 NUPES vs Minor Left
- 1 Ensemble vs Minor Left
- 3 RN vs Minor Left

- 8 Triangulaires
- 1 Ensemble vs Localist
- 1 NUPES vs Far Right Dissident
- 1 NUPES vs D-A
- 4 NUPES elected
- 1 Ensemble Elected

So theres a few issues for NUPES which should be expected given that this is a situation heavily structurally tiled towards giving the president power. Like I would tilt a lot of the NUPES - LR and LR - FN runoffs in favor of LR, just based on geography, results percentages, incumbency, runoff transfers, and other factors; but few of the LREM - LR runoffs. Similarly with the NUPES vs RN compared to LREM vs RN, though obviously RN will win a percentage of both categories, NUPES will still win a good chunk of their runoffs here, and LREM won't sweep their races with RN. But NUPES won't be winning any of the seats presently held by RN in the north where they advanced for example.

Overall, if Ensemble lacks a majority I would look to RN doing better then all modeled outcomes, since normalization has allowed them to win runoffs. 140-160 seats for NUPES should be baked in and unless they surge hard, its the other parties who have the most potential for variance.

[jaichind]

Is it reasonable to assume that the ENS-NUP runoffs would tilt ENS given that LR+ votes will lean heavily in favor of ENS?

[Logical]

Does anyone have a count of the number of candidates from each nuances within 1% of making it to the runoff?

[parochial boy]

I think there is a good chance that LR and friends do reasonably well out of their run-offs, but which still shouldn't hide the absolute pasting that they have received.

There is also something of a big question mark on exactly how RN voters will behave in the second round NUPES - Ensemble run offs. Polling typically points to them splitting fairly evenly. There will likely be some pretty heavy abstention, but more to the point, as there have been so few historical instances of these sorts of run offs there's a bigger chance of the polling being off. That and the potential different behaviours between the "liberal" souther far right voters and the "social" northern ones.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it reasonable to assume that the ENS-NUP runoffs would tilt ENS given that LR+ votes will lean heavily in favor of ENS?

That category is fairly broad, befitting the situation in half the seats. In includes those seats such as Saint Dennis 6 where NUPES got over 50% but not enough turnout, seats like Aveyron 1 where Ensemble has al but already locked it up, and everything in between. Realistically though, barring a unseen surge, a lot - but not all - of the marginals should fall to Ensemble. Obviously this differs seat by seat, but usually the situation is what many expected when NUPES was formed. The left unites their transfers to get into a position for runoffs, but then Ensemble gets the lions share of the exhausted votes from round 1, since there is no more Left votes to win over to NUPES.

I think there is a good chance that LR and friends do reasonably well out of their run-offs, but which still shouldn't hide the absolute pasting that they have received.

There is also something of a big question mark on exactly how RN voters will behave in the second round NUPES - Ensemble run offs. Polling typically points to them splitting fairly evenly. There will likely be some pretty heavy abstention, but more to the point, as there have been so few historical instances of these sorts of run offs there's a bigger chance of the polling being off. That and the potential different behaviours between the "liberal" souther far right voters and the "social" northern ones.

Agreed on the second point. I'm currently mentally treating it as 50-25-25 Abstain-Ens-NUPES, though obviously this differs seat by seat.

The first point though is interesting cause we actually have data from 2017 to pull from that backs up the idea of LR+ avoiding a total wipeout. We can basically split the seats where they advanced into two different blocks: those in the North and far South which are against or under the influence of an eliminated RN, and those in and around AURA. The former group in 2017 went largely for LR+, either because the other parties easily outnumber RN and fall behind LR+, or RN goes to LR+ to stop the candidate opposing LR - usually LREM/Ensemble. The second group of seats is historically conservative which is why LR+ held a lot of them in 2017. They had enough of a base to outvote the insurgents. This appears to be the same again, often with significant percentages and additionally in a position to get Ensemble transfers in LR+ vs NUPES runoffs given the regions political traditions. However, both forces are likely weaker this time around given the declining position of LR/UDI+, so some seats will not behave by precedent, despite it appearing that they should.

[VPH]

Sylvia Pinel defeated in her constituency. Is the PRG now just Falorni?

PRG seems like a rather pointless party at the moment. Why not just merge into LREM? I know Pinel didn't want to but now she looks rather misguided...

[Coldstream]

Is it possible to get a breakdown of the 11 NUPES dissidents? Ie are they mostly ex-Socialist Party MP’s or something else?