🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
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  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
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Author Topic: 🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)  (Read 66090 times)
somerandomth
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« Reply #975 on: November 30, 2023, 07:54:30 AM »


Wilders reacted by accusing him of playing games and today Wilders reposted a letter written by a far right commentator in which Omtzigt was described as "sneaky Catholic" and "he thinks he is God".
Does Wilders think he can bully Omtzigt into getting into coalition with him? It doesn't seem like he's going through the route of "we agree on more than you think" lol
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DavidB.
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« Reply #976 on: December 01, 2023, 05:25:23 AM »

The Electoral Council is currently in session to finalize the results, but it is already clear that the SP eventually will get 5 seats (not 4) and D66 only 9 (not 10) in the end. This means Tjeerd de Groot (D66) is out. D66 would have had to get 160 votes more or the SP 80 votes fewer for the seat to flip.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #977 on: December 02, 2023, 04:28:35 PM »

Something to bear in mind for most Western European countries (and a few other places) there is a clear distinction between the social democratic electorate and the 'progressive' (for want of a better term) one, and that this is true both in terms of their potential maximum size and reach as for their respective cores.* The two are not naturally opposed as such and can combine relatively well (though a degree of friction is inevitable), but they are not simply two branches of the same tree: it cannot be assumed that an appeal to the one will necessarily appeal to the other; the very opposite is often true. In a majoritarian electoral system it becomes a matter of balance, but this shouldn't be necessary when proportional electoral systems are used: it would have surely made more sense to have one party put forward a strong social democratic message and for another party to put forward a strong 'progressive' message and for the pair of them to then work together afterwards. This would also have made more sense as far as the narrower question of rescuing the PvdA brand is concerned: until the disastrous Samsom leadership, the PvdA had a clear function in the political system and one of the strangest and most tellingly disturbing things about how things have panned out subsequently is that there seems little awareness that it is this loss of function that has devastated the party.

*For people who are, like me, sufficiently sad enough to be in Fabian/FES/etc circles this will all be extremely familiar - familiar to the point of actual cliché - but most posters here are not.
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Keep Calm and ...
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« Reply #978 on: December 02, 2023, 05:59:36 PM »

First poll after election

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Vosem
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« Reply #979 on: December 02, 2023, 07:05:52 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2023, 12:05:40 PM by Vosem »

Women preferring BBB pretty strongly makes some sense to me (now that I think about it, it feels perfectly attuned to be a far-right party with appeal mostly to women), but I'm surprised that'd be true for PVV. Similarly, mostly men voting D66 doesn't surprise me (there is some part of me that wants to vote for the party most opposed to fighting the drug war and I suspect if I lived in the Netherlands it would be stronger -- and I probably would be a local-level D66 voter -- but it makes sense to me that this is a masculine feeling), but I'm surprised more men than women vote GL/PvdA. Environmental politics in general strikes me as skewing female -- why is their electorate so masculine? (Has the Netherlands avoided the general global trend where over time women have become more educated than men?)
GL has always had a more female base and the PvdA a slightly more male one or a balanced one, so I guess we'll have to wait for further studies to prove whether De Hond's statistics are true in the first place, and if so, what could be behind it. First, I suspected it could be the case that similar female voters would go PvdD leaving the GL-PvdA electorate more male, but De Hond's own statistics don't show such an effect for the PvdD. The same goes for the surprising overperformance of the PVV among women. The Netherlands follows the international trend of women being more highly educated so that cannot be the reason.

I would dispute your classification of BBB as a far-right party. Even the "the PopuList" classifies it as a borderline case.

Gotcha, fascinating stuff. What I was trying to say about BBB was not calling it out so much as just noticing that it is a new right-wing party with a base among people from the periphery, not that I was saying that its ideas were unacceptably far-right or anything, and that for such a party it seems very female in presentation: the only two BBB figures I can name, van der Plas and Keijzer, are both women, and this is unusual for a new right-wing party. It feels like it makes sense that it has a majority-female electorate, and I wonder how much sense a party with a presentation like BBB's might make in other European party systems.

(there is some part of me that wants to vote for the party most opposed to fighting the drug war and I suspect if I lived in the Netherlands it would be stronger
What drug war? Except for maybe Portugal (but I don't know much about it...) I don't think there is any country in Europe as lenient to drug users as the Netherlands. The police doesn't go after them at all. The only 'war' is against the types of crime that completely overwhelm entire communities, the type of crime that causes politicians and lawyers and crime reporters to require permanent security - and the police are losing it. There is no quick fix for that.

In any case, this is national policy so local D66 branches can't do anything about it. The only thing they can do is support local 'coffee shops'.

Well, yeah; in the US the Netherlands is seen as a legendarily drug-friendly country, and when I was in college it was uniformly the case (although my understanding is that a Biden-era crackdown has changed this) that online orders of particular drugs (especially "research chemicals") would invariably arrive from the Netherlands. I can imagine a voter with little education who would see preserving this state of affairs as their main issue, and I feel like this voter would be likeliest to vote D66 (?), as the most social liberal party, or maybe PvdD. They would also be much likelier to be a man than a woman.

I tend to be very favorable towards drug legalization and my sympathy for D66 comes mostly from this issue, even if they seem terrible on foreign affairs (and free speech, at least according to Wilders?). A large part of my Hollandophilia comes from noticing that it's a country where parties on different extremes, like D66 and PVV, seem unusually good on specific issues and to have virtues I'd like to see imported to my country.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #980 on: December 03, 2023, 05:57:01 AM »

First poll after election


It seems voters for other right wing parties just want Wilders as PM and don't want all the fuss.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #981 on: December 04, 2023, 09:35:59 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2023, 09:42:20 AM by DavidB. »

Today, the Electoral Council finalized the result for the second time after a recount in Tilburg, as there was an irregularity in the count amounting to more than 2%. It didn't change the result in terms of seats. This time, only one MP was elected through preferential votes while being placed too low on the list to receive a seat already: GL-PvdA candidate #27 Danielle Hirsch. On Wednesday, the MPs for the next legislature will be sworn in.

Meanwhile, the chaos in the VVD is complete. Dilan Yesilgöz appeared in a one-page ad in multiple newspapers, claiming the VVD is ready to take responsibility and ready to "enable" the formation of a PVV-NSC-BBB government "from parliament", i.e. they won't govern. An inexplicable position and one that is not supported by the vast majority of VVD voters, who simply want the VVD to enter the government. Former party leader Jozias van Aartsen gave an interview to NRC in which he said he opposes the formation of such a government but left the intra-VVD meeting on Wednesday feeling badly, as he was in a tiny minority. I can't understand why the VVD don't simply enter the government, receive way more in terms of policy and positions than their 24 seats would warrant, and get ready to take the spoils if the PVV truly prove to be unstable partners.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #982 on: December 04, 2023, 09:40:34 AM »

I agree it seems utterly absurd, but they've seen every single junior coalition partner of theirs lose seats by virtue of being the junior coalition partner and now they are in that position they probably want to avoid it and play the classic post-modern political trump card (very popular amongst their liberal brothers down south) of both governing and acting as if they are fresh opposition. It's the only explanation I can think of.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #983 on: December 04, 2023, 09:46:46 AM »

I agree it seems utterly absurd, but they've seen every single junior coalition partner of theirs lose seats by virtue of being the junior coalition partner and now they are in that position they probably want to avoid it and play the classic post-modern political trump card (very popular amongst their liberal brothers down south) of both governing and acting as if they are fresh opposition. It's the only explanation I can think of.
This + fears of NSC staying outside this government and taking their votes plus those of the PVV if things go wrong. Looks like a game of who blinks first, but the VVD have more to lose by not entering (disappointed voters who voted for them because they 'offer stability') and potentially more to win by entering (many PVV voters could flow more easily to the VVD). In any case, if the VVD are banking on a failed formation and a new election, they are playing a very dangerous game. Yesilgöz' image is in the gutter now - and purely based on the election result it didn't have to be that way.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #984 on: December 04, 2023, 10:21:59 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2023, 11:30:26 AM by DavidB. »

Some more interesting things:

- 80 MPs will leave and 67 new MPs will enter parliament for the first time. The remaining 13 were MPs before but are not right now. This is the highest turnover since the 2002 'Fortuyn' election. 70 MPs are re-elected, 43 of those were elected for the first time in 2021. The total amount of parliamentary experience therefore decreases sharply.

- 59% of the new parliament will be male, approximately the same as last time.

- I don't completely trust the analysis by parlement.com regarding migration background, because Gidi Markuszower (PVV) is classified as 'none/unknown' while the parliament's website itself states he was born in Tel Aviv, and Caroline van der Plas (BBB) is also classified as 'none/unknown' while her mother is from Ireland; in other words, there may be an undercount of MPs with a Western migration background. But it seems the percentage of MPs with a migration background will be between 15% (as parlement.com claims) and 20% again. At least 10 out of the 25 new GL-PvdA MPs and all 3 DENK MPs will have a migration background. There will be 7 black MPs: 3 for GL-PvdA, 2 for NSC, and 1 for D66 and ChristenUnie each.

- The PVV's good result will lead to more working-class people and more people with practical jobs entering parliament. In addition to the already mentioned #3 Rachel van Meetelen, who owns a stall to bake traditional Dutch little pancakes at fairs and events, the PVV's #29 Eric Esser is a metal worker in a factory in Veghel, operating machines. #21 Patrick van der Hoeff is manager of a Lidl supermarket store in Terneuzen, Zeeland. #31 Vincent van den Born was a welder for the maintenance of trains and later became a security guard. #33 Peter van Haasen ran a carpet store with the largest collection of Moroccan (!) carpets in the Netherlands. And #23 Jeanet Nijhof is a weight consultant and a dog breeder.

Here is a graph with all candidates that were elected with preferential votes, i.e. 25% of a seat, 17.388 votes this time:

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DavidB.
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« Reply #985 on: December 04, 2023, 11:59:26 AM »

The leaders of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB will have discussions in pairs of two in the coming days. Tomorrow, this round of talks will start with Wilders-Van der Plas and Wilders-Yesilgöz.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #986 on: December 04, 2023, 01:34:10 PM »

Here is a graph with all candidates that were elected with preferential votes, i.e. 25% of a seat, 17.388 votes this time:


Timmermans stands out as having a weak personal vote given the vote/personal vote ratio of the other majorish parties. Some of that will be down to the fact he’s the lead candidate of an alliance rather than the only leading figure in his party, but it doesn’t look the whole explanation.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #987 on: December 04, 2023, 01:53:38 PM »

First poll after election



No change between Left-Right blocks, just Wilders consolidating the Right as expected.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #988 on: December 04, 2023, 03:50:48 PM »

Timmermans stands out as having a weak personal vote given the vote/personal vote ratio of the other majorish parties. Some of that will be down to the fact he’s the lead candidate of an alliance rather than the only leading figure in his party, but it doesn’t look the whole explanation.
There is a number of factors: as you mentioned, GL voters wanting to vote for a GL candidate (the best example being Klaver with 150k votes) + many GL-PvdA voters specifically wanting to vote for a woman (7 out of 10 of those GL-PvdA candidates elected with preferential votes are women) + left-wing voters being more likely to cast a vote for a candidate from their region (Habtamu de Hoop in Frisia, Lisa Westerveld in Gelderland) than right-wing voters + some minority voters perhaps preferring a candidate with a non-Western background + some voters wanting to vote GL-PvdA even though they dislike Timmermans. There's been attention in the Dutch media for the last explanation and it's probably one factor, but I think other ones are more important.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #989 on: December 04, 2023, 05:34:27 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2023, 08:15:00 PM by DavidB. »

Pieter Omtzigt thought it would be funny to walk through parliament with his negotiation notes 'exposed', just like Kajsa Ollongren's actually accidental exposure of notes with 'Omtzigt: function elsewhere' in 2021. Omtzigt now says this was accidental but surely nobody believes that. His notes read 'lower limit' (Omtzigt's supposed 'moral boundary' to which the PVV would have to adhere in order for cooperation to take place) and 'not in PVV-NSC-BBB government'. Perhaps some people in The Hague like this type of humor, but to the general public it could also create the impression Omtzigt is actually playing the exact type of political games he was supposed to despise. I don't think he is reading the room - in this case the mood in the country: stop with the childish games and start solving the mounting problems - correctly.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #990 on: December 04, 2023, 07:15:46 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2023, 08:13:58 PM by DavidB. »

The Hague's detailed results are also in. After the 2017 election I also described those and tried to quote that post for this time, but I had locked the thread and clicked 'delete' instead of 'quote', so it's gone there... fortunately I copied it before, so here it is:

Quote
The results of the separate boroughs in The Hague, the most segregated city in the country with the biggest extremes, are interesting. May do this with other cities too, but this city's site was very accessible. Boroughs are fairly large and often include completely different types of areas, though, particularly in The Hague and Rotterdam.

Center (includes some of the worst areas of the city that aren't in the center at all): DENK 17%, D66 17%, VVD 15%, GL 15%, PVV 9%
Escamp (largely residential and lower middle class, some more urban parts): PVV 22%, VVD 16%, DENK 10%, D66 10%, GL 9%
Haagse Hout (very affluent, Mark Rutte lives here): VVD 32%, D66 18%, GL 10%, PVV 9%, CDA 8% (DENK 12th and 1%)
Laak (mixed Dutch working class + minority area with a few gentryfing parts): PVV 21%, DENK 15%, GL 12%, D66 12%, VVD 10%
Leidschenveen-Ypenburg (new middle-class districts with a suburban character, far from the center): VVD 27%, PVV 18%, D66 14%, GL 8%, CDA 8% (DENK 8th and 3%)
Loosduinen (lower middle-class residential area): VVD 23%, PVV 20%, D66 10%, CDA 9%, GL 8%
(DENK 12th and 1%)
Scheveningen (formerly a separate village, the port/beach area; mixed bag some of the best areas in the country and some poor white-working class areas): VVD 27%, PVV 17%, D66 16%, GL 9%, CDA 8% (DENK 14th and 0.3%, 98 raw votes)
Segbroek (relatively good, upper-middle class parts and more up-and-coming areas, some worse parts): VVD 21%, D66 19%, GL 16%, PVV 10%, PvdA (hey, they still exist?) 7% (DENK 10th and 2%)

Some extremes: DENK got 60.3% at neighborhood center Sam Sam, 51.3% at neighborhood center De Octopus (very fitting for Erdogan's long arm) and 53.1% at the "multicultural meeting point" which actually seems like a very monocultural place to me -- probably a mosque. All these polling stations are in the same neighborhood. The VVD got 54.3 at the Bernardusschool, 49% at "Evita Lokaal" (don't ask), 49.4% at an old people's home, and 48.9% at a neighborhood center in the same area. The PVV, as always, did best in Duindorp: 46.4% at neighborhood center Het Trefpunt, 44% at a Christian school: don't know about these kids, but their parents surely seem ready to liberate Constantinople. GL got 26% and D66 20% at well-known concert hall Het Paard van Troje ("the Trojan horse") in the city center; perhaps contrary to expectations, DENK got only 2% here. At the Ministry for the Interior, D66 and VVD both got 25% and GL 15%. At the polling station in parliament, D66 got 26%, GL 24% and VVD 20%.

This time (doing only the biggest five per borough):

Center: GL-PvdA 23.6%, DENK 19.2%, PVV 13.3%, VVD 10.3%, D66 8.3%
Escamp: PVV 29.4%, DENK 15.2%, GL-PvdA 13.7%, VVD 11.4%, NSC 8.8%
Haagse Hout: GL-PvdA 22.2%, VVD 21.5%, PVV 13.4%, D66 12.9%, NSC 8.7%
Laak: PVV 26.7%, GL-PvdA 17.7%, DENK 16.8%, NSC 7.4%, VVD 7%
Leidschenveen-Ypenburg: PVV 28.8%, VVD 19%, GL-PvdA 13.4%, NSC 10.4%, D66 7.1%
Loosduinen: PVV 28.9%, VVD 17.7%, GL-PvdA 15.4%, NSC 10.2%, D66 6.8%
Scheveningen: PVV 23.1%, VVD 19.5%, GL-PvdA 18.7%, D66 11%, NSC 8.2%
Segbroek: GL-PvdA 28.8%, PVV 14.8%, VVD 14.6%, D66 11%, NSC 8.6%

Compared to 2017 the PVV mostly gain in middle-class Leidschenveen-Ypenburg and lower middle-class Loosduinen. Here, they definitely won over a lot of serial Rutte voters. In affluent Haagse Hout, on the other hand, the VVD actually may have lost some voters to GL-PvdA.

This time, the Den Haag website allows us to zoom in to neighborhoods within boroughs in more detail and the differences really show how segregated the city is. Within borough Center, the notorious Schilderswijk voted 51.8% DENK, 12.9% PVV, 12.9% GL-PvdA and 4.1% NSC, with all other parties smaller. In the bordering (actual) city center, GL-PvdA won 29.6%, PVV 12.6%, VVD 11.9%, D66 10.9% and DENK only 5.2%. In the neighboring poorer Stationsbuurt, which includes the city's red light district and a lot of labour migrants and is situated between the two main stations of the city, GL-PvdA won 29.4%, PVV 15.1% and DENK 9.2%. But also part of the 'center' borough is the rich Archipelbuurt, in which the VVD won 27.5%, GL-PvdA 20.8%, D66 14.4%, PVV 9.7% and DENK only 0.8%. That's all in one borough.

But other neighborboods are interesting too. The up-and-coming Regentessekwartier (borough Segbroek) adjacent to the city center voted 37% GL-PvdA, 11% PVV and 10.7% D66. Most of Segbroek is a mix of VVD and GL-PvdA, with the richer and older Vogelwijk on the other side of the spectrum (28.5% VVD, 19.9% GL-PvdA). Duindorp, a very poor and insular white area in Scheveningen, voted 59.1% PVV, 7.9% VVD, 7.4% GL-PvdA and 6.6% NSC. Benoordenhout, one of the most affluent areas of the city and Mark Rutte's home, voted 35% VVD, 17% GL-PvdA, 16.2% D66 (almost as big as GL-PvdA!) and 7.8% NSC.

And while the Schilderswijk gets all the attention because it's a rather monocultural area that fits a lot of stereotypes, a bigger social tragedy is going on in the neighborhood of Bouwlust and Vrederust (borough Escamp) - farther away from the center, mostly apartment blocks built in the 50s and 60s - which lacks the Schilderswijk's social cohesion but is just as poor and has an increasing crime problem. The area voted 26.2% DENK, 25.7% PVV, 12.8% GL-PvdA (lower than the national average; compare that to the figure in Haagse Hout...) and 8.4% VVD. Middle-class Wateringse Veld, a newly built neighborhood adjacent to this area, votes like demographically similar Ypenburg, but DENK is bigger than in Ypenburg, reflecting a larger, relatively young middle-class Muslim population living in Wateringse Veld: 29% PVV, 18.2% VVD, 11.8% DENK, 11.7% GL-PvdA.

Certainly the breakthrough of the PVV within the middle class at the expense of the VVD is one of the biggest stories of this election, and you can see it when you zoom into the neighborhoods.

On the precinct level, some extremes are neighborhood center Sam Sam in the Schilderswijk (66.8% DENK), Wijkcentrum het Trefpunt in Duindorp (60.7% PVV), football club HVV Laakkwartier in the ethnically mixed (minority white), working class, poor Laak area (48.1% PVV), the Royal The Hague Cricket and Football Society in Benoordenhout (41.5% VVD), and Dienstencentrum Copernicus in the Regentessekwartier (41.3% GL-PvdA).
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #991 on: December 05, 2023, 07:25:58 AM »

I agree it seems utterly absurd, but they've seen every single junior coalition partner of theirs lose seats by virtue of being the junior coalition partner and now they are in that position they probably want to avoid it and play the classic post-modern political trump card (very popular amongst their liberal brothers down south) of both governing and acting as if they are fresh opposition. It's the only explanation I can think of.
This + fears of NSC staying outside this government and taking their votes plus those of the PVV if things go wrong. Looks like a game of who blinks first, but the VVD have more to lose by not entering (disappointed voters who voted for them because they 'offer stability') and potentially more to win by entering (many PVV voters could flow more easily to the VVD). In any case, if the VVD are banking on a failed formation and a new election, they are playing a very dangerous game. Yesilg�z' image is in the gutter now - and purely based on the election result it didn't have to be that way.

VVD knows that jumping straight into bed with Wilders would tank daddy Rutte's bid for NATO leadership.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #992 on: December 05, 2023, 09:16:08 AM »

After a "constructive and good" conversation between Wilders and Yesilgöz, PVV, VVD and BBB are ready to start negotiating, their leaders have announced. This combination amounts to 68 seats in parliament. Next goal: to get Omtzigt on board.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #993 on: December 05, 2023, 06:54:33 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2023, 01:56:45 AM by Meclazine for Israel »

Geert Wilders election success in The Netherlands brings into focus the changing mood in political groups in Europe.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/12/03/immigration-under-attack-populist-global-politics/


DUTCH PARTY FOR FREEDOM LEADER GEERT WILDERS (IMAGE: AAP/EPA/JEROEN JUMELET)

"In the Netherlands, the centre-right coalition led by the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) for the past decade collapsed over immigration policy debates that would be familiar to Australians: greater restrictions on family reunions and a new sort of temporary protection arrangements for asylum seekers."

His media publications are not as sophisticated as most politicians in 2023, but he does have the hair.

Rotterdam Campaigning

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CyqiqyVNgPw/
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DavidB.
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« Reply #994 on: December 06, 2023, 01:07:31 PM »

- According to Pieter Omtzigt and Geert Wilders, "the air is cleared" between the two after their meeting today. They will have a follow-up conversation on Thursday. On Monday, coalition investigator Ronald Plasterk will report to parliament about the formation process. A debate will then follow.

- The new parliament was sworn in today. Without Kauthar Bouchallikht, that is - she followed up on her promise not to take up her GL-PvdA seat. 58 MPs took the oath and 92 the secular pledge. All CDA, CU, SGP, FVD and JA21 MPs took the oath. All SP, PvdD, Denk and Volt MPs took the pledge. 15 out of 37 PVV MPs took the oath, 5 out of 25 GL-PvdA MPs, 7 out of 24 VVD MPs, 10 out of 20 NSC MPs, 2 out of 9 D66 MPs and 4 out of 7 BBB MPs. Last time, 59 MPs took the oath.

- After heated discussions, the new parliamentary seating setup looks like this. CDA and NSC did not want to sit in the same bloc - CDA also refused to sit with the PVV. Front row seats go to the 6 biggest parties: PVV, GL-PvdA, VVD, NSC, D66 and BBB. This image also shows how right-wing the parliament has become, with NSC on the center-left, D66 on the left-wing part and GL-PvdA on the far left.



- Almost 1,000 mail-in votes from Dutchmen abroad came in too late and were not counted. They could have flipped the 150th seat from SP to D66.

- BIJ1 did not get into parliament again. Now, there is more trouble for them, as they left a financial mess. Interior Minister Hugo de Jonge (CDA) therefore announced the ministry will demand more than €127,840.29 (gotta love those €0.29) in subsidies back from the intersectionality party and its party institutions.

- The decline of the 'Old Right' (VVD, CDA) has important ramifications: the Parliament is expected to vote in favor of the introduction of a constitutionally binding corrective referendum. In the last parliament, this proposal won a majority. Now, it needed a two-thirds majority to be constitutionally enshrined and it looks like this threshold will be reached. Of the parties with 7+ seats, PVV, GL-PvdA, NSC, D66 and BBB are all expected to support it; only the VVD will oppose it. If the law is adopted in the lower house, the Senate (in its current form) also needs to vote for it with a two-thirds majority; it already voted for it 45-22 the first time. The details of this referendum would not be constitutionally enshrined and would be dealt with in a different law.

In 1999, the introduction of a binding referendum failed by one (VVD) vote in the Senate. The advisory referendum that was introduced in 2015 was abolished in 2018 already.

No change between Left-Right blocks, just Wilders consolidating the Right as expected.
This is not good analysis. It makes more sense to think of Dutch politics as consisting of three blocs: a left/progressive one, a center right one and a nationalist right one. In this poll, 8 seats have shifted from the center right to the nationalist right, the equivalent of 5% of the total vote. That is significant.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #995 on: December 07, 2023, 12:21:43 AM »

First poll after election


It seems voters for other right wing parties just want Wilders as PM and don't want all the fuss.

and D66/Volt voters who wanted GL/PVDA to be above PVV coming back home, I'd guess?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #996 on: December 07, 2023, 09:45:34 AM »

"Greater restrictions on family reunions" is the sort of thing many approve in theory, but not quite as much in actual practice. "It was meant to apply to those other bad immigrants, not these good ones".
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DavidB.
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« Reply #997 on: December 08, 2023, 10:51:49 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2023, 10:55:17 AM by DavidB. »

Speaker of the Parliament Vera Bergkamp (D66) did not stand for re-election, so one of the first tasks of the newly elected Parliament will be to elect a new speaker. This has proven to be a difficult job over the last years. The investigation into the conduct of former Speaker Khadija Arib (PvdA) being the low point, but there was also much controversy about the limits to freedom of speech in Parliament. According to an adopted note by Parliament, the Speaker has to have 15 competences, among which "solid parliamentary experience", ability to "act with authority", ability to "cooperate well with the parliamentary organization", "standing above the parties", and "management skills".

There is talk about three candidates.

- Roelien Kamminga (VVD) was just elected temporary Speaker and has some experience as Deputy Speaker. But she has only been an MP for 2 years and the speaker of the Senate also comes from the VVD.

- Martin Bosma (PVV), on the other hand, doesn't lack experience: he has been an MP for 17 years now and has much experience as Deputy Speaker. He is well-liked across the parliament, as he has proven to lead debates with authority and humor, and he does not give PVV MPs any privileges. He tried to run for Speaker twice before, but apart from the fact that the PVV doesn't (didn't?) have many friends in parliament, the representative function of the Speaker internationally plus Bosma never disavowing Wilders' "fake parliament" comments from long ago were used as arguments to disqualify him. Additionally, the PVV recently (but before the election) supported an amendment stating that the Speaker always has to come from the opposition. Now that a government with the PVV doesn't seem unlikely anymore, this could be used as an argument against him. Bosma isn't certain to be in the race yet.

- Tom van der Lee (GL-PvdA) already declared his candidacy. He has been in parliament since 2017 - until this year for GL - and has also served as Deputy Speaker. But with the current right-wing configuration of the parliament, electing a GL-PvdA Speaker - who held very political top jobs in GL (head of communications, advisor to former party leaders Femke Halsema and Paul Rosenmöller) before entering parliament - seems a little counterintuitive.

VVD and NSC being the center of the parliament probably means Kamminga should be favored if she makes it to the runoff, but it could get interesting.

and D66/Volt voters who wanted GL/PVDA to be above PVV coming back home, I'd guess?
Exactly.
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DL
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« Reply #998 on: December 08, 2023, 11:18:19 AM »

Why does Volt even exist as a separate party? Its sounds pretty indistinguishable from D66 or GL/PvdA
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DavidB.
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« Reply #999 on: December 08, 2023, 11:20:32 AM »

Why does Volt even exist as a separate party? Its sounds pretty indistinguishable from D66 or GL/PvdA
You asked this literally two weeks ago and got answers:

Why does the Volt party exist at all? Why are they not part of either D66 or GL/PvdA?
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