🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Flyersfan232]

A little more elaboration on the past period. When Kim Putters became informateur, the left-wing parties claimed the formation had to start from scratch again and all the time in between had been wasted. It was easy to draw this conclusion at the time, but it didn't prove to be true: the 'fundaments for constitutionality' the four leaders had agreed on under Plasterk were essential for the next step to be taken.

When Putters started his job, he first organized a number of roundtable discussions with a number of (mostly academic) experts to inform himself: on experiences with formations in general, on public governance, on parliamentary history, and on an international comparative perspective on the formation of non-majority governments (with specific attention for Denmark).

Then, Putters invited all 15 party leaders to share their perspective on the next steps in the formation, which only Stephan van Baarle (DENK) was not willing to do (in protest of any attempts to govern with the PVV). Esther Ouwehand (PvdD) wanted centrist options without the PVV to be investigated, but all the other party leaders supported the investigation of some sort of combination of PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB. Frans Timmermans (GL-PvdA) explicitly excluded support for any type of government that depends on the PVV, and Geert Wilders (PVV) explicitly excluded support for a minority government without the PVV in it.

Given that we have negative parliamentarism, an important question is whether any potential minority government would be sent home immediately. GL-PvdA and D66 didn't exclude this possibility if Wilders were to become PM. Volt said this would depend on the type of government and the content of the coalition agreement.

CDA, D66, SP, FVD, SGP, ChristenUnie, Volt and JA21 say they are willing to judge proposals by their content and not to vote against everything a minority government would propose. GL-PvdA will not "cooperate when the PVV is involved in a proposal", with only a limited number of exceptions (this all sounds very vague - in Dutch it does too).

CDA and SGP want a non-extensive coalition agreement; GL-PvdA, D66, PvdD and FVD support this idea but are skeptical about the chances of this happening; the VVD supports the idea, but wants more detailed attention for the 'fundamental principles' of the rule of law, government finances, and the international position of the Netherlands; Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) supports the idea, but explicitly wants a more detailed agreement on "what he finds to be important" (literal quote), "especially regarding a solid financial framework". PVV, BBB, SP and PvdD (mentioned before too...) have no preference for a non-extensive agreement.

Then, Putters negotiated with the parties involved and concluded a "program government" should be formed, i.e. a government with a non-extensive coalition agreement in which all political leaders take place in parliament and 50% of the ministers come from "outside politics". Putters thinks an agreement should be made on "for example these" 10 topics: asylum and immigration; nitrogen, nature, water, agriculture, fisheries and food security; social security and purchasing power; healthcare; public housing; good governance; public safety; finances; rule of law; international affairs and a business-friendly environment.

What now?

Some of my conclusions:

- At different points in the formation, VVD and NSC tried to stay as far away from this government as possible - and both took a severe hit in the polls for doing so. The majority of their voters want this. They now seem to have come to the conclusion that this option is the only workable option. An option in which either the VVD or NSC would provide outside support to a government of PVV, BBB and one of VVD or NSC would not be workable, because the VVD understandably demanded 'the same level of commitment' from all parties.

- For the sake of their position internationally (VVD) and their credibility nationally (NSC), it is in the interest of VVD and NSC to claim this is very much not a regular four-party government. For the sake of the stability of this future coalition, it is in the interest of PVV and BBB to not openly speak out against this narrative, even though these two parties would prefer a regular four-party government. The term 'extraparliamentary government' was sent to the bin by Putters because it makes no sense (every government always depends on not having a parliamentary majority against it), so 'program government' it's going to be.

- It is in the interest of the left-wing opposition to claim this is very much a regular government in the making, only with some window dressing involved.

- The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle, but could veer towards either end. If the coalition agreement ends up very extensive and the vast majority of the ministers end up coming from the four parties, it would be difficult to dispute the left's conclusion. But if the coalition agreement will not be very extensive, there is actually a lot of room for parliament, and many ministers come from outside politics, then this is indeed an innovation in Dutch politics.

- Will the coalition agreement actually be non-detailed? We have to wait and see. But usually, when distrust is greater among future coalition partners, the coalition agreement will be more extensive. Based on that lesson, I would be surprised if this coalition agreement truly ends up so non-detailed.

- Left-wing newspapers wrote angry 'editorial comments' claiming VVD and NSC had easily given up their position and are now forming a government with the PVV. I don't think that's the mood in the country, however. This took four months. Most people are getting annoyed with the slow formation and don't really care about PVV or no PVV.

- Wilders had to give up his claim on the PM position and has said he did so out of love for the country. This will definitely strengthen him: it looks statesmanlike, and by staying in parliament with more distance from the government, it is probably easier to remain popular too. However, afterwards, Wilders stated that regarding his PM ambitions there was "one party that said: fine" (BBB), "one party that said: preferably not, but we won't block it" (the VVD), and "one that said: absolutely not" (NSC). Wilders said Omtzigt blocking him as PM would be "unfair, undemocratic, and constitutionally incorrect".

- Important to note that Wilders also has to walk a difficult tightrope here, as part of the PVV base will have difficulty understanding why Wilders as leader of the biggest party cannot become PM. They would perhaps become angry if Wilders had left the impression he had given away the position too easily. Now, I think he ended up as the net winner of this. The issue regarding Wilders' PM ambitions overshadowed the bigger conclusion: that the negotiations on actual policy between the four parties are finally taking off again, and that they found a way to move forward in terms of government structure too.

is it possible putters could be the prime minister of this government

[DavidB.]

Putters was asked this question and he said it is "not up for discussion". Which theoretically means it could still be up for discussion in the future. Still, Putters is a PvdA member and not a right-winger himself. He has even tweeted negatively about the PVV years ago. Meanwhile, the coalition agreement is supposed to include clear right-wing policies and the next PM will have to identify with these policies to carry them out. For this reason I don't think Putters would be the most likely candidate, but I also suppose we cannot rule it out completely.

Oh, also please don't quote very long posts in their entirety.

[Flyersfan232]

who are the candidates suspected by the media to be prime minister?

[DavidB.]

Former MP Elbert Dijkgraaf (SGP) and top level civil servant Richard van Zwol (a CDA member) will become the new informateurs for the PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB 'program government'. They will have eight weeks to do the job, although Wilders says things should be finished "preferably sooner". Also news is that Wilders will indeed be the one proposing a candidate for PM to the three other parties - but they will all have to accept the suggestion.

[DavidB.]

The Corbynization of GL-PvdA continues — but in this case it's despite the efforts of the party leader, Frans Timmermans, who tries to prevent this but evidently isn't in control. Former GL youth leader and loudmouth Sabine Scharwachter already did considerable damage to the party in the runup to the election when she kept insisting on the slogan 'From the river to the sea' and on the idea that October 7 wasn't a pogrom, even trying to make Timmermans take back his words on this. In February, she called for a 'February Intifada', as an analogy to the February strikes in WWII in Amsterdam to protect Jews — it cannot get much more perverse.

Then, when the Amsterdam Holocaust Museum was opened some two weeks ago and Israeli president Herzog visited for the occasion, GL-PvdA MP Kati Piri led the boycott movement against Herzog's visit. Herzog came anyway and the subsequent protest next to the museum completely overshadowed the opening, with slurs ('cancer Jews', 'Hamas is my brother') being shouted at Jewish children and Holocaust survivors coming to visit. In the public opinion, GL-PvdA is the party tied to these protests — not a great look. As a result, Ronny Naftaniel, a prominent moderate Jewish voice on the Israeli-Arab conflict, cancelled his PvdA membership after 45 years. Notable that Timmermans didn't distance himself from Piri but didn't provide vocal support for her position either.

And yesterday, the Netherlands reached another low point: a concert by Jewish singer Lenny Kuhr (74 years old) was interrupted by 'anti-Zionist' activists, who intimidated Kuhr and called her a terrorist. GL-PvdA seems to be the only major party having trouble calling this incident for what it is: antisemitism. Scharwachter, again, has the worst takes on this. GL (she's not a PvdA member and was opposed to the merger) is either unwilling or unable to throw her out. De Telegraaf is having a field day in describing the situation within GL-PvdA and so do the right-wing parties.

[Flyersfan232]

The Corbynization of GL-PvdA continues — but in this case it's despite the efforts of the party leader, Frans Timmermans, who tries to prevent this but evidently isn't in control. Former GL youth leader and loudmouth Sabine Scharwachter already did considerable damage to the party in the runup to the election when she kept insisting on the slogan 'From the river to the sea' and on the idea that October 7 wasn't a pogrom, even trying to make Timmermans take back his words on this. In February, she called for a 'February Intifada', as an analogy to the February strikes in WWII in Amsterdam to protect Jews — it cannot get much more perverse.

Then, when the Amsterdam Holocaust Museum was opened some two weeks ago and Israeli president Herzog visited for the occasion, GL-PvdA MP Kati Piri led the boycott movement against Herzog's visit. Herzog came anyway and the subsequent protest next to the museum completely overshadowed the opening, with slurs ('cancer Jews', 'Hamas is my brother') being shouted at Jewish children and Holocaust survivors coming to visit. In the public opinion, GL-PvdA is the party tied to these protests — not a great look. As a result, Ronny Naftaniel, a prominent moderate Jewish voice on the Israeli-Arab conflict, cancelled his PvdA membership after 45 years. Notable that Timmermans didn't distance himself from Piri but didn't provide vocal support for her position either.

And yesterday, the Netherlands reached another low point: a concert by Jewish singer Lenny Kuhr (74 years old) was interrupted by 'anti-Zionist' activists, who intimidated Kuhr and called her a terrorist. GL-PvdA seems to be the only major party having trouble calling this incident for what it is: antisemitism. Scharwachter, again, has the worst takes on this. GL (she's not a PvdA member and was opposed to the merger) is either unwilling or unable to throw her out. De Telegraaf is having a field day in describing the situation within GL-PvdA and so do the right-wing parties.

and the government formation what the update there?

[DavidB.]

Today, a parliamentary debate on an FVD initiative bill for a referendum on Nexit escalated completely. During the debate, Jesse Klaver (GL-PvdA) and Jan Paternotte (D66) kept questioning Thierry Baudet (FVD) about FVD's financial transparency, now and during the 2016 EU-Ukraine Association Agreement referendum, to exclude the possibility of Russian interference. Baudet got angry and stated this was an attack on his integrity. He told Paternotte that "in every other situation you'd punch someone in the face if they thought this [lacking integrity] of me". Speaker Bosma told Baudet to mind his words and said he assumed Baudet meant this metaphorically, and pressured Baudet a little to agree with this reading — otherwise he could have been expelled from the plenary. After the debate, however, apparently an incident took place, with Baudet allegedly telling Klaver "If you ask me one more time [to publish the financial information of FVD before it entered parliament], I will punch you in the face". Klaver immediately filed a complaint with Speaker Bosma. Bosma then sent Baudet a letter to summon him to discuss the issue tomorrow morning in the Speaker's office, calling the incident "unacceptable" and "intolerable" and stating "boundaries were crossed". Baudet told NRC that "it was a joke. I don't hit women."

Last weekend, FVD held a party congress, with the Russian ambassador to the Netherlands present and with a stand promoting travelling to Russia to celebrate Victory Day in Moscow. At the congress, the party's list for the upcoming EP election was approved. Former FVD MP and former Rabobank top banker Ralf Dekker will lead FVD into the EP election. It looks unlikely they will win a seat, however: 3.3% will be needed for one Dutch seat (out of a total of 31) and FVD only won 2.2% in the general election last November. FVD's only incumbent MEP, Marcel de Graaff, who had switched from the PVV, will lead the list of FVD in Flanders. But with an even higher threshold (8.3% for 1 out of 12 seats) and lower name recognition/popularity than in the Netherlands, it looks impossible for FVD to win a seat in Flanders — I'm not even sure they will make it onto the ballot there.

and the government formation what the update there?

I update whenever there is an update to give.

[DavidB.]

Dutch media report that the formation is in a difficult phase, with differences on finances being very large — with VVD and NSC as 'frugals' & PVV and BBB as less willing to engage in budget cuts. Informateurs Van Zwol and Dijkgraaf have even gone back to holding conversations with the party leaders separately. According to NRC, Van Zwol said that they are "little by little" trying to write up some building blocs for a potential coalition agreement. Sounds like a very cautious and gradual process to me indeed. At the same time, it is not as if the formation is about to collapse either: the parties know there is no alternative.

[DavidB.]

The Rutte IV government put forward a proposal to change the so-called transgender law to make it easier to change one's official gender as recognized by the government. The proposed changes include the scrapping of the age requirement of being above 16 years old and the requirement of discussing the issue with a general practitioner or psychologist first. In 2022, civil initiative Gendertwijfel launched a big public campaign against the proposed changes, after which VVD and CDA had additional questions and delayed the vote. Now, the revision has lost its majority in parliament. The deputy parliamentary leader for NSC, Nicolien van Vroonhoven, seems to be strongly against the changes and announced she will introduce a motion to make the government retract its proposal if it doesn't do so by itself. In addition to her own NSC, the motion would have the support of at least PVV, BBB, CDA, FVD, SGP, ChristenUnie and JA21 — with 78 out of 150 seats a majority in parliament. The VVD were supposedly on the fence too.