🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[mileslunn]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding. 

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers. 

[Isaak]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding. 

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers. 

This sounds good in theory but does not account for the fact that the real problem is not low-skilled labor migration but irregular migration (refugees and asylum seekers). I do not see how a point-based system would help here.

[mileslunn]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding. 

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers. 

This sounds good in theory but does not account for the fact that the real problem is not low-skilled labor migration but irregular migration (refugees and asylum seekers). I do not see how a point-based system would help here.

Netherlands though unlike say Italy, Greece or Spain has advantage of not sharing a border or being close to any developing country sending refugees.  To get to Netherlands have to pass through multiple EU member states so seems solution here is for EU member states that border problematic areas to put more resources into securing the border.  Other solution I guess is scrap Scheghen agreeement and re-establish border controls but that would likely make inflation worse as many supply chains work on just in time delivery so would have to make big changes to account for border delays. 

Not sure if allowed but could like US does within 100 miles of Mexican border establish random immigration checkpoints as I know France has random customs checks on autoroutes near borders.  Other option is require all landlords to check ID and confirm person is legally in country as UK did this a decade ago and make it a crime to rent or sell to anyone who illegally in country.  Hotels already are required to check passport of all non-EU nationals and ensure they have not overstayed their visa and report ones who have. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Man, Limburg sucks.

It's mostly known in North America for its awful smelling cheese. But its politics really suck too.

[Zinneke]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding.  

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers.  

This sounds good in theory but does not account for the fact that the real problem is not low-skilled labor migration but irregular migration (refugees and asylum seekers). I do not see how a point-based system would help here.

Did you follow the debates in the Netherlands? The problem is migration full stop now, not just whether they are irregular or not. International students (many of them Germans like you) are even being demonized now even though higher education is technically an export and the international students bring in money by spend on Dutch goods and services. The main problem in the Netherlands is raw numbers and a housing crisis. Its in many ways a victim of its own success. A points based system would at least get the workforce the Netherlands needs to increase capacity in places like health and construction over say logistics and higher education. Yesilgoz was actually the one who put it best when she said its also unfair on the international student or new EU worker... Finding a place to rent in the Netherlands is obscene these days.

What frustrates me is that Wilders and his ilk would have no issue inviting the entire Afrikaner population or crackpot US evangelicals in this context. Secular Dutch parties should propose to build over the Bible belt, make the Dutch Bible Belt a giant manhattan strip of skyscrapers with headshops and kebabs on every corner. If they want to do cosplay Calvinism America has plenty of space.

(and Obviously a points based system is illegal under EU law but then this is also an EU problem, and the EU could provide the solution by not running a political economy that makes loads of people congregate in the Blue Banana  and instead limits internal migration to fit supply with demand)

[mileslunn]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding.  

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers.  

This sounds good in theory but does not account for the fact that the real problem is not low-skilled labor migration but irregular migration (refugees and asylum seekers). I do not see how a point-based system would help here.

Did you follow the debates in the Netherlands? The problem is migration full stop now, not just whether they are irregular or not. International students (many of them Germans like you) are even being demonized now even though higher education is technically an export and the international students bring in money by spend on Dutch goods and services. The main problem in the Netherlands is raw numbers and a housing crisis. Its in many ways a victim of its own success. A points based system would at least get the workforce the Netherlands needs to increase capacity in places like health and construction over say logistics and higher education. Yesilgoz was actually the one who put it best when she said its also unfair on the international student or new EU worker... Finding a place to rent in the Netherlands is obscene these days.

What frustrates me is that Wilders and his ilk would have no issue inviting the entire Afrikaner population or crackpot US evangelicals in this context. Secular Dutch parties should propose to build over the Bible belt, make the Dutch Bible Belt a giant manhattan strip of skyscrapers with headshops and kebabs on every corner. If they want to do cosplay Calvinism America has plenty of space.

(and Obviously a points based system is illegal under EU law but then this is also an EU problem, and the EU could provide the solution by not running a political economy that makes loads of people congregate in the Blue Banana  and instead limits internal migration to fit supply with demand)

Doesn't Netherlands heavily restrict areas you can build homes on?  My understanding is thanks to high population density and desire to produce enough food to feed population much of areas not built up is reserved exclusively for agriculture and parks and cannot be developed.  Since EU has CAP what matters is does EU produce enough food to feeds its population not does anyone member within it and answer is emphatically yes.  So I would think allowing farmland to be turned into new subdivisions could help on housing costs.  I mean Netherlands has roughly the population density of New Jersey yet much of New Jersey is suburban sprawl not farmland thus more affordable. 

And as for points system, that is nuts.  I mean Canada which is often held up as beacon of tolerance and multiculturalism uses a points system.  As long as EU citizens exempt from points system and only applied to non-EU citizens not sure why would be a problem.  I thought EU law on immigration was only free mobility of EU citizens and cannot be racist but otherwise member states free to set whatever ones they wish for non-EU migrants.  Australia has free mobility of labour with New Zealand yet uses a points system and simply exempts NZ citizens from it.

[Zinneke]

The points system is nuts, but so is the idea that we could have freedom of movement to the scale of the United States. Europe is not the United States. There are many reasons why labour market mobility in the US is easier to implement than the EU. In the end freedom of movement turned out to be a trojan horse for the centre-left in Europe. And some people legit think Ukraine should be fastlined into the EU 4 freedoms!!! You need strong fiscal measures to counterbalance peverse effects, and China-style levels of social engineering, neither of which the EU has. But anyway we are veering off topic, you are right to question building policies in the Netherlands. I dont know much about them.

[mileslunn]

The points system is nuts, but so is the idea that we could have freedom of movement to the scale of the United States. Europe is not the United States. There are many reasons why labour market mobility in the US is easier to implement than the EU. In the end freedom of movement turned out to be a trojan horse for the centre-left in Europe. And some people legit think Ukraine should be fastlined into the EU 4 freedoms!!! You need strong fiscal measures to counterbalance peverse effects, and China-style levels of social engineering, neither of which the EU has. But anyway we are veering off topic, you are right to question building policies in the Netherlands. I dont know much about them.

Not disagreeing on that but fact is only way to end free mobility of labour is to leave EU outright and have a tough time believing most Dutch voters want that, especially after how Brexit has turned out.  UK has ended free movement and was only able to do so by leaving EU outright.  And not just had to leave EU but single market as even Iceland, Norway & Switzerland while not EU members are required to allow free movement due to being part of single market.   With Ukraine joining, I believe EU law is clear in that members can restrict mobility for first seven years but not beyond.  Since won't join until 2030s at earliest likely later, realistically free movement won't come before 2040 and who knows what world will look like then.  I believe while small in size, Montenegro is likely to join in 2025 meaning by 2032 would have free movement to Netherlands but could be sooner as have to renew restrictions after 2 years and again after 5 years so failure to not notify commission and council of intention, it then automatically opens.

If non-EU immigration can understand, but Netherlands can control that and don't need to veer far right.  Heck Denmark which has centre-left government has a very restrictive immigration policy for non-EU migrants.  For EU ones, I think as UK showed its one of those people have to accept hard trade off on as EU seems insistent this is non-negotiable and leaving is only way to end it. 

As for free mobility like US, EU may be same from legal perspective but from practical is not remotely close.  Many Americans live in different state than birth place while in EU that percentage is much lower.  Only 3% live in member state not born in while 28% of Americans live in state not born in.  Fact different culture and language means regardless of rules you will get far less mobility.  Better comparison is Canada.  English Canada is like US with high mobility between provinces but Quebec is more like EU with very little movement to and from due to fact speak different language and have different culture. 

[jeron]

Yesilgoz now said VVD is NOT going into government because of their election loss but would be willing to support it from the outside. The mess is complete and VVD strategy (whatever it was) failed.
Rumour has it that the VVD let the government collapse in july and wanted elections in September so Omtzigt would have no time to start his own party. It all backfired spectacularly.

[Diouf]

Yesilgoz now said VVD is NOT going into government because of their election loss but would be willing to support it from the outside. The mess is complete and VVD strategy (whatever it was) failed.
Rumour has it that the VVD let the government collapse in july and wanted elections in September so Omtzigt would have no time to start his own party. It all backfired spectacularly.

Sounds like an attempt to sabotage negotiations as much as possible? VVD has the experience in government, and I imagine they would have worked as the glue between NSC and PVV.

[jeron]

Yesilgoz now said VVD is NOT going into government because of their election loss but would be willing to support it from the outside. The mess is complete and VVD strategy (whatever it was) failed.
Rumour has it that the VVD let the government collapse in july and wanted elections in September so Omtzigt would have no time to start his own party. It all backfired spectacularly.

Sounds like an attempt to sabotage negotiations as much as possible? VVD has the experience in government, and I imagine they would have worked as the glue between NSC and PVV.

It could be just playing hard to get. Or they think a minority PVV-NSC-BBB government will fail and VVD can benefit during the next elections

[DavidB.]

My hypothesis: this summer Rutte got confirmation that the US supports him as NATO SG and he wanted to pass on the VVD in the best possible state to his successor, so that the financial interests of the VVD's and the country's oligarchs are served in the future. So Rutte made the government collapse and banked on the idea of his opponents not being ready. It is really the height of cynicism. And indeed they weren't ready - GL/PvdA got their act together really quickly but never managed to overcome Timmermans' image issues (although I doubt he would have done better with a longer timeframe), BBB panicked and collapsed, and NSC ultimately did worse than expected due to Omtzigt's perceived 'indecisiveness' which was also a consequence of the short timeframe. But the VVD had counted out Rutte's most formidable political enemy, who was ready - and it was the VVD itself that had opened the gates. This is also a piece of karma: in 2012, when Wilders pulled out of the Rutte-I budget negotiations and the government collapsed, Rutte told him "I will decimate that little party of yours". Now, Wilders' victory will cast a big shadow over the Rutte era, whatever the outcome of this formation process may be.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What actualy policy changes would a Wilder Premiership mean for Neatherlands ?

[Oryxslayer]

Yesilgoz now said VVD is NOT going into government because of their election loss but would be willing to support it from the outside. The mess is complete and VVD strategy (whatever it was) failed.
Rumour has it that the VVD let the government collapse in july and wanted elections in September so Omtzigt would have no time to start his own party. It all backfired spectacularly.

Sounds like an attempt to sabotage negotiations as much as possible? VVD has the experience in government, and I imagine they would have worked as the glue between NSC and PVV.

It could be just playing hard to get. Or they think a minority PVV-NSC-BBB government will fail and VVD can benefit during the next elections

Or they are attempting to sway Omtzigt. There's basically no possible government without him or the VVD. So if they say nah, then that's cover for the NSC to follow them.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm sorry if that was discussed earlier, but would Wilders as PM end military aid to Ukraine? Despite being a smaller member of NATO, the country provided a good deal of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. And would he block additional EU sanctions against Russia?

[PSOL]

I'm sorry if that was discussed earlier, but would Wilders as PM end military aid to Ukraine? Despite being a smaller member of NATO, the country provided a good deal of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. And would he block additional EU sanctions against Russia?

The amount of cash rolling in from arms sales makes it extremely unlikely. Like Slovakia, maybe the blank checks might end but the military surpluses will find their way some way or another.

[DavidB.]

Sounds like an attempt to sabotage negotiations as much as possible? VVD has the experience in government, and I imagine they would have worked as the glue between NSC and PVV.

Pundits explain it as a way to make it more difficult for NSC to take the same position. The idea would be that if this combination of parties turns out to be the only option, NSC would prefer to provide confidence and supply to a PVV-VVD-BBB government. Clearly the VVD think they would be too vulnerable in that position (which I don't really understand - if the PVV end up too unstable, the VVD can get all of their votes, just like in 2012 and just like the Austrian ÖVP has always done after governing with the FPÖ), so they made this move.

NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt is unhappy with it, saying he would prefer the VVD to tell this to 'coalition investigator' Gom van Strien (PVV) instead of to the media two minutes before a round table conversation with all the party leaders. But, as NOS reporter Wilma Borgman aptly put it: "Position VVD doesn't have to be definitive", which is true for approximately every VVD position ever. Another pundit remarked that this also means any option led by GL-PvdA is off the table, as the VVD didn't claim their non-participation would only be related to a PVV-led government. And yet another one remarked that a long formation process is in the interest of Mark Rutte, as the successful formation of a government with both PVV and VVD would decrease his chances to become NATO SG. This from the 'country over party' party, of course, which has criticized Geert Wilders for 'walking away when things get difficult and not taking responsibility' for 10 years.

It remains to be seen how long they can take this position, though. The VVD-friendly Telegraaf is unhappy and quoting sources within the VVD that criticize Yesilgöz, who looked insecure and unstable, sticking to the same story literally in the same words to different journalists. It gave off a vibe of a press spokeswoman afraid to be fired rather than a party leader standing for what she believes in.

https://twitter.com/RoelMaalderink/status/1728017172759192050?s=20

I'm sorry if that was discussed earlier, but would Wilders as PM end military aid to Ukraine? Despite being a smaller member of NATO, the country provided a good deal of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. And would he block additional EU sanctions against Russia?

Chances that Wilders will become PM are still very small. As for Ukraine:

Our Ukraine policy will be fine. VVD, NSC and BBB will never allow for a significant change of course there. Foreign policy is about the last thing the PVV will touch, except for Israel and our UN vote there perhaps. Former Dutch ambassador Caspar Veldkamp (NSC) would be the most likely Minister of Foreign Affairs and his foreign policy would be perfectly in line with our European partners - perhaps a little more with the Germans, the Austrians and the Czechs and a little less with the remainder of the Benelux and France, but nothing spectacular. And let's not act as if Wilders is Forum-tier in the first place. He has repeatedly condemned the Russian invasion, calls Russia the aggressor and says he hopes Ukraine will cut the Russian forces into pieces.

The truly interesting question regarding foreign policy would pertain to the Dutch position on the EU Council, but that's not just because of the PVV: NSC and BBB are also significantly more skeptical than the previous government, which was very pro-'ever closer union' by Dutch standards.

[Vosem]

If it can't be Wilders, and if Yesilgöz doesn't want to be PM of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government, and Omtzigt was never running for PM, and it's unclear whether Mona Keijzer was even the BBB candidate...then who ends up being the Prime Minister?

[Zinneke]

If it can't be Wilders, and if Yesilgöz doesn't want to be PM of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government, and Omtzigt was never running for PM, and it's unclear whether Mona Keijzer was even the BBB candidate...then who ends up being the Prime Minister?

[DavidB.]

Looks like Bonaire and Saba helped take away the 150th seat from the PVV and gave it to D66. D66 is now projected to have 10, PVV 37, and GL-PvdA 24. 99.8% of the vote is now in, I suppose it's the votes from abroad that are left (and I'm also reading a small part of the vote from Amsterdam is still out). In that case D66 or GL-PvdA should be favored to take the last seat.

If it can't be Wilders, and if Yesilgöz doesn't want to be PM of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government, and Omtzigt was never running for PM, and it's unclear whether Mona Keijzer was even the BBB candidate...then who ends up being the Prime Minister?

Either a compromise candidate or Yesilgöz, most probably - or we'll have new elections first. Note that she didn't say she doesn't want to be PM of this government (even though this is the logical conclusion from her words). She said the VVD will have a 'different role' (but will support 'constructive proposals that improve the country', 'some type of confidence and supply agreement') and it is up to the winners, PVV and NSC, to take the initiative to form one. She may well use this to create a better negotiating position for the VVD. And yes, this sort of VVD shenanigans are part of the reason why people vote for NSC and PVV.

[Logical]

Maths on the final 2 seats.

There are about ~30k votes left to report from abroad and Sint Eustatius. JA21 could still fall below the 0.67% threshold and lose their seat. If they are under the threshold then GL-PvdA or D66 will most likely snatch their seat. The votes from abroad are expected to be very lopsided towards GL-PvdA which is why the official NOS projection still have them at 25 seats and D66 at 9.

[DavidB.]

The votes from abroad are expected to be very lopsided towards GL-PvdA which is why the official NOS projection still have them at 25 seats and D66 at 9.

Where are you reading this is the reason they don't update it anymore? I could be wrong, but as far as I know they simply stop updating the projection when almost everything is in, and if something changes then so be it.

For reference, this was the vote from abroad in the Senate election earlier this year. 27% for GL-PvdA combined, 16% D66, 16% for the combined nationalist right (JA21 + FVD, PVV did not participate for voters abroad), 14% VVD, 7.6% Volt and 7% PvdD. So GL-PvdA should indeed do well, probably 30-40% territory, but D66 will do well too and I am not sure whether the GL-PvdA margin will be enough to overturn D66's advantage (although it does seem more likely than not). Also take into account that the vast majority of voters abroad had already cast their votes before this idea of a GL-PvdA-PVV race came up (it is explicitly advised to do it immediately upon receiving your ballot, which was at the end of October), so it was more difficult to cast a tactical vote, which should help D66 here.

Interestingly, D66's number 10 is the very controversial MP Tjeerd de Groot, who is viewed as archenemy number 1 by many farmers. He was placed on a lower position on the list by D66 but voted up by the membership. I wonder whether Rob Jetten is cheering for GL-PvdA to pick up this seat...

https://twitter.com/paulusdewilt/status/1637495619714424833?

[Logical]

The votes from abroad are expected to be very lopsided towards GL-PvdA which is why the official NOS projection still have them at 25 seats and D66 at 9.

Where are you reading this is the reason they don't update it anymore? I could be wrong, but as far as I know they simply stop updating the projection when almost everything is in, and if something changes then so be it.

It was my understanding that the projection was updated constantly using a mathematical model. Perhaps it is not the case. But yes, just a couple hundred votes will decide where the last seat goes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I know I'm a dumb American, but don't big-tent anti- (insert party here) coalitions generally seem to result in said party gaining ground? Like I know part of the reason FdI surged so much between 2018 and 2022 was because they were the only party always in the opposition.

I could easily see an anti-PVV coalition collapsing and Wilders getting 50 seats in the next election.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding. 

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers. 

I would NOT call Australia a country with no immigration backlash lol. That presents a massive misunderstanding of Australian politics. Sure it's not to the level of the US, but there is absolutely backlash to immigrants here.