🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
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  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2022, 04:27:38 PM »

Give it time.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2022, 06:28:08 PM »

^ This is one of the reasons why most parties agreed that it was necessary to reintroduce the Ministry for Urban Planning this time around. Indeed staggering.

-

1,5 month until local elections. Here's an I&O poll for Amsterdam. That CDA figure... lol.



I like how CU is doing better than CDA in Amsterdam.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #27 on: February 01, 2022, 08:04:54 PM »

^ This is one of the reasons why most parties agreed that it was necessary to reintroduce the Ministry for Urban Planning this time around. Indeed staggering.

-

1,5 month until local elections. Here's an I&O poll for Amsterdam. That CDA figure... lol.


I like how CU is doing better than CDA in Amsterdam.
I have no idea what type of person would still vote CDA in Amsterdam apart from some very old people. Meanwhile, CU enjoys some support among black Christian communities. Former CU council member Don Ceder, who won the first ever (and only) seat for CU Amsterdam in 2018 and held it until being elected to parliament last year, is of Ghanaian and black Surinamese descent himself.
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« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2022, 04:16:04 AM »

If you had to describe Volt's political position, how would you describe it aside from being pro-european federalism?

It is a very similar party to D66 but there are couple of things worth highlighting I feel (and DavidB can correct me). For one, Volt is very open about wanting to lead a sort of political revolution and a generational transition of power. They play on the elite/ordinary people cleavage to an extent despite their high educated voter base, and they definitely play on the generational cleavage more than D66.

D66 is more of a managerialist/conservative reformist kind of party that believes in maintaining cadre interests and status quo politics and has pretty much given up on its wacky ideas to renew Dutch politics such as majoritarian system or elected mayors (or referenda, which really damaged their image as a "let's renew dutch politics and make it closer to citizens").

In simple terms, Volt is first and foremost a youth party, and then one that seeks to overhaul the political system (inc. the Eurofederalism thing). D66 is a party that goes across generations and targets different cadres and sectors specifically, and does not seek an overhaul anymore.

It's pretty clear though that Volt mainly benefit from disgruntled D66 voters.
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jeron
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« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2022, 08:17:08 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2022, 08:20:47 AM by jeron »

If you had to describe Volt's political position, how would you describe it aside from being pro-european federalism?

It is a very similar party to D66 but there are couple of things worth highlighting I feel (and DavidB can correct me). For one, Volt is very open about wanting to lead a sort of political revolution and a generational transition of power. They play on the elite/ordinary people cleavage to an extent despite their high educated voter base, and they definitely play on the generational cleavage more than D66.

D66 is more of a managerialist/conservative reformist kind of party that believes in maintaining cadre interests and status quo politics and has pretty much given up on its wacky ideas to renew Dutch politics such as majoritarian system or elected mayors (or referenda, which really damaged their image as a "let's renew dutch politics and make it closer to citizens").

In simple terms, Volt is first and foremost a youth party, and then one that seeks to overhaul the political system (inc. the Eurofederalism thing). D66 is a party that goes across generations and targets different cadres and sectors specifically, and does not seek an overhaul anymore.

It's pretty clear though that Volt mainly benefit from disgruntled D66 voters.


In terms of voter base, the generational divide between Volt and D66 is not as large as you describe because:
a) Volt attracted voters from all age groups, and
B) D66 also disproportionally gets it votes from younger voters and overperforms in university towns.

Relatively speaking Volt did do better among college and university students which may be partly due to D66 previously supporting the abolishment of student grants and the introduction of student loans. In that sense Volt is more of a student party than a youth party.

https://maurice.nl/peilingen/2021/04/tk2021-naar-demografische-en-andere-kenmerken/

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DavidB.
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« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2022, 09:08:54 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2022, 10:07:29 AM by DavidB. »

- Almost all Covid restrictions were scrapped yesterday; the use of the 3G QR pass was abolished. Only restrictions remaining are the mask mandate on public transportation (expect this to be abolished soon too) and on airports, and a new, 1G testing requirement for everyone (including vaccinated and recovered people) in indoor venues wth 500+ people without people being assigned seats (think nightclubs). These tests are free of charge. Within 1 month we went from total lockdown to near total freedom.

- Almost all parties agree with the government in its tough approach toward Russia following its invasion in Ukraine. Geert Wilders, who went on RT and visited Russian parliament a couple years ago, condemned the invasion too. Only Forum for Democracy disagree, claiming the West is at fault and the Netherlands should reconsider its NATO membership. Quite unbelievable stuff.

- Following a new wave of #MeToo accusations (which started with a rapper, a singer and Ajax sports director Marc Overmars), PvdA MP Gijs van Dijk resigned and today, Volt kicked out MP Nilüfer Gündogan from its parliamentary group over some thirteen allegations of misconduct, both sexual and non-sexual (intimidation, abuse of power position). Gündogan disagrees and has sued Volt - the court case will take place on Tuesday. She will remain in parliament in any case, meaning that there will be a record of 20 parliamentary groups, each entitled to speaking time in every debate. After Van Haga's three man splitoff from FVD and Omtzigt's departure from the CDA, this will be the third splitoff not even a year after the election. For Volt, who have managed the situation in a very amateuristic way from a PR point of view, this is a painful affair. They were doing very well in the polls and expected to make big gains in next month's local elections. Not party leader Laurens Dassen but Gündogan was easily the most visible Volt MP.



- Local elections will take place in a month. Local parties - already by far the biggest political force with about a third of local seats - are set to gain even more ground. CDA, GroenLinks and SP are expected to lose.

Some polls from the two biggest cities:

Amsterdam (conducted in January, pre-Volt scandal; comparison with last election):
GroenLinks 15% (-5), D66 13% (-3%), Volt 12% (new), PvdA 10% (-1%), VVD 9% (-2%), JA21 8% (new, but present on the council with 2 FVD splitoff seats), PvdD 8% (+1%), BIJ1 5% (+3%), SP 4% (-4%), DENK 3% (-4%), Elderly Party 3% (+1%), FVD 2% (-4%), CDA 2% (-1%), ChristenUnie 2% (-).

Here the biggest party is going to matter for the formation. D66 can be expected to win over people who previously intended to vote for Volt and I think they will top the poll here, with quite a bit of backlash against GL's record as leading party in a left-leaning coalition consisting of D66, PvdA and SP. The coalition will probably lose its majority and I don't expect this left-wing experiment to be continued.

Rotterdam (conducted Feb 20): Leefbaar Rotterdam 23% (+2%), D66 11% (+1%), VVD 9% (-1%), GroenLinks 7% (-3%), PvdA 7% (-3%), DENK 7% (-), Volt 6% (new), PvdD 5% (+1%), BIJ1 4% (new), ChristenUnie-SGP 3% (-), CDA 3% (-2%), FVD 2% (new), SP 2% (-3%), Socialists 010 2% (new; the people kicked out from the SP), 50Plus 1% (-2%).

What's interesting here is whether Leefbaar will be back in the government. Last time they were excluded (their alliance with FVD, who were riding high in the polls back then, played a major role here) and an "anti-Leefbaar" coalition of VVD, D66, GL, PvdA, CDA and CU-SGP was formed. Now this alliance doesn't exist anymore, with former Leefbaar leader Joost Eerdmans now being the leader of JA21 in parliament and Robert Simons having taken over Leefbaar. In 2014-2018 Leefbaar governed Rotterdam together with D66 and CDA and it wouldn't be completely unthinkable for them to return to the city government.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #31 on: February 27, 2022, 06:22:50 PM »

Ouch: D66 foreign affairs spokesman Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, an anti-Putin hardliner, was making jokes in a studio right before a talkshow took place about people made lots of money by "going short" on the Ukrainian economy and speculated how much he could make by "going short" on Russia. A Dutch-Ukrainian writer was present and didn't quite enjoy this while her relatives are under fire. During the formation Sjoerdsma had already invented a lie about informateur Johan Remkes, namely that he had been "acting drunk". This PR trick backfired spectacularly.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2022, 08:58:06 AM »

Klaver has asked that confidential documents on Ukraine are not shared with FvD and PVV. Baudet has already hinted at having no issue with taking Russian money.

I hope this opens a broader debate into foreign funding of Dutch political parties. Their rules seem waaay too lax, especially with the likes of Denk roaming about too.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #33 on: March 11, 2022, 11:44:49 AM »

Local elections will take place next week on Wednesday (early voting possible on Monday and Tuesday in person, no voting by mail anymore), but everything is overshadowed by what's happening in Ukraine + what's happening with energy prices. I don't see any campaign that is really much more visible than others. If I had to guess, the current circumstances will probably help VVD (Rutte effect, safe pair of hands etc.) and D66.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #34 on: March 11, 2022, 06:17:52 PM »

Some more #analysis on the level you’re used to from me:

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DavidB.
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« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2022, 07:24:57 AM »

Turnout at 10 AM was 0.4% in The Hague, 0.3% in Utrecht, and 0.2% in Rotterdam. I don’t think we’ll have early voting in the next election if the Covid situation is like this. Shame, because I personally find it quite convenient.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #36 on: March 15, 2022, 07:44:49 AM »

National turnout on Monday was 4-5% according to Ipsos. In The Hague, it was 3.3%, in Utrecht 2.5%, in Amsterdam 2.4% and in Rotterdam only 2%. Apparently not a lot of people are into early voting.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #37 on: March 16, 2022, 11:07:00 AM »

Turnout at 5PM: Rotterdam 26.1%, The Hague 30.5%, Utrecht 36.6%, Eindhoven 28.3%, Groningen 36%, Nijmegen 38.5%. This includes the early vote. Turnout for the early vote (Monday and Tuesday) was about 10% nationally.

The big turnout spike always takes place after 5 PM on election day, but it does seem as if turnout is going to be a bit lower than 55% in 2018 (and 54% in 2014). It would be symbolically relevant if it actually ends up lower than 50%. Not too surprising, though, as the campaign (that never became one) was completely overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #38 on: March 16, 2022, 05:59:36 PM »

Final result in Rotterdam - with abysmal turnout of 38.9% (-7.8%): Leefbaar Rotterdam 21.3 (+0.8 ), VVD 10.2 (-0.5), GroenLinks 9.1 (-0.7), D66 9 (-0.9), PvdA 8.9 (-0.8 ), DENK 8.6 (+1.3), Volt 4.8 (new), PvdD 4.2 (+0.7), BIJ1 4.1 (new), 50Plus 4 (+0.8 ), ChristenUnie 3.6 (new), SP 3.1 (-1.8 ), CDA 3 (-1.7), FVD 2.5 (new) - below threshold but above 1%: Jong Rotterdam 1.1% and Socialists 010 1%.

Results here: https://nos.nl/artikel/2421425-eerste-uitslagen-bekend-bekijk-hier-alle-uitslagen-van-de-verkiezingen
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DavidB.
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« Reply #39 on: March 16, 2022, 06:26:40 PM »

Amsterdam isn't fully in yet, but the PvdA seem to have made big gains (their leader Marjolein Moorman is popular) and go from 5 to 10 seats to become the biggest party in the capital again; because of this, the current left-wing coalition (GL, D66, PvdA, SP) renews its majority against all odds. The SP aren't even needed for a new coalition. PvdA-GL-D66 now the most likely coalition option.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #40 on: March 17, 2022, 02:27:31 PM »

Psychologically quite a big boost for them, I presume?
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« Reply #41 on: March 17, 2022, 05:05:42 PM »

Psychologically quite a big boost for them, I presume?

Yes they’ve managed to maintain face better than the other pillar party CDA throughout the last year, that’s for sure.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #42 on: March 17, 2022, 05:27:33 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2022, 05:30:38 PM by SunSt0rm »

Amsterdam is a nice symbolic win for the PvdA, but the results of the PvdA outside of Amsterdam weren't great. Though, there is a still potential for the PvdA if they get it the right way again as the European Election of 2019 showed.




Overall, the local election didn't really create real winners of losers for the national parties, and the low turnout is very concerning

- Local parties were the winners of the election and will dominate the local administration especially outside the big cities

- Government perspective: VVD lost, but are still largest national party. CDA lost, but losses are less than expected, though the prospect of the BBB next year for the provincial election is concerning. D66 stablized, but results are quite far off from 2021 and is not largest party anymore in any big city. CU not great either, lost their sole representative in Amsterdam.

- Opposition: PvdA won Amsterdam, but didn't improve outside of Amsterdam. GL made some nice wins in some cities, but overal vote decreased little. SP may be the largest loser this election continuiing their losses streak even further. PVV also had bad results. PvdD may the biggest winner of the national parties, winning almost everywhere they particpate. And SGP is benefitting from low turnout.

- New parties: Volt unimpressive results caused by the Gundogan-affair. No breakthrough at any place for FvD, they continue to be a frings party. And Bij1 getting quite great results from Amsterdam and Rotterdam. BVNL getting some very nice results from Friesland, but most of these places were uncontested by PVV, FvD, JA21 and BBB.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #43 on: March 17, 2022, 05:35:08 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2022, 05:55:29 PM by DavidB. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 »

Main takeaways of the election:

1. Low turnout
Only 50.8% of eligible voters turned out - an all-time low for local elections. Rotterdam (38.9%), Almere (39.8%) and Tilburg (40%) were among the 100.000+ cities with the worst turnout, but The Hague (43%) and Amsterdam (46.5%, may still increase a little as only 95% of the votes are counted) didn't do a lot better. According to the Ipsos exit poll, more voters than usual didn't turn out because they simply didn't know who to vote for. The lack of attention for the local elections due to the Ukraine war probably played a role here.

2. Big gains for local parties
From 28.6% to 36.2%: local parties won almost everywhere, at the expense of "national" parties. Local parties can have any signature or none at all: from left-wing to right-wing and from progressive to conservative to "pragmatic". By visualizing the biggest party we can already see some of the extent of these gains, though in many places there are multiple local parties.

Biggest party in 2018 (yellow = local parties). Still somewhat of a mixed picture:
https://imgur.com/LcSqom0
Biggest party in 2022 (orange = local parties). Local parties overwhelmingly strongest political force:
https://imgur.com/wPWeJK2

3. Stable picture in terms of national parties
Contrary to the exit polls for some cities, in which GL seemed to gain quite a lot, the picture was rather stable for the national parties. Contrary to the Kantar polls which showed big VVD gains, the liberals actually lost quite some seats across the board. For the CDA this happened too, as expected. Still, the VVD is again the biggest "national" party locally while the CDA won the most seats (they do better in small municipalities that relatively elect more seats compared to bigger municipalities when accounting for their size). GL and D66 lost a little (with D66 expecting to make more gains and GL holding up remarkably well - coming first in Utrecht and for the first time in D66 stronghold Leiden is an important feat), PvdA gained 3 seats (from 555 to 558) and had a much more mixed picture across the board than you'd expect just thinking of the result in Amsterdam. Given that their 2018 result was quite awful, this isn't really good news for the social democrats. The SP lost more than a third of its seats. While its split off youth members failed to win seats anywhere, the conflict has badly hurt the SP image and doubtlessly cost them votes. SGP and especially PvdD made small but important gains.

4. Increased fragmentation
We have 19/20 (depending on the result of the Gundogan saga) political groups in parliament, which is crazy - and local councils are starting to look more and more the same. With Volt, PvdD, PVV and now also FVD gaining a lot of seats across the country, local councils will now often have more than 10 political groups. In the capital of Noord-Brabant, Den Bosch, 16 parties managed to get elected, 7 of those with only 1 seat ("Bosch' Interest", PVV, "Simply Driven", PvdD, Volt, "For Den Bosch", 50Plus). Maastricht, Limburg's capital, will also have 16 parties on the council, 6 with 1 seat (PVV, "Courage", 50Plus, the Socially Active Citizen Party, the Liberal Party Maastricht and FVD).

FVD stood in 50 municipalities and gained 1 seat almost everywhere, with exceptions (2 seats) in Velsen, Almere, Lelystad and its best result in Hoogeveen (7.1%). They failed to get in in Utrecht, but managed to gain seats in Rotterdam and The Hague. In Amsterdam, the only place where they stood in 2018, they lost two seats compared to 2018 and won only 1. JA21 only stood in Amsterdam and won two seats for Annabel Nanninga and Kevin Kreuger, who were elected for FVD last time and split off in 2020. Another FVD splitoff, BVNL ("Interest of the Netherlands", but also something like "Netherlands Ltd" - a BV is the most common legal form of a private company) led by Wybren van Haga, managed to gain seats in more than 10 municipalities too. The PVV stood for the first time in a couple of its (economically deprived) heartland municipalities such as Heerlen (10.2%), Westerwolde (12.3%) and made gains in places like Pekela (15.9%, +3.3%) that weren't part of the PVV's initial base, but have strongly shifted toward Wilders after the PvdA's selling out to the VVD in Rutte-II. The PVV lost a little in most other places, though. Volt won seats in some bigger cities but lost a lot of their "projected gains" previously projected by the polls due to the Gundogan affair.

All maps (for parties + change maps) can be found here:
https://verkiezingensite.nl/

Some interesting municipalities:
- In the Rotterdam suburb of Barendrecht (population about 50k), local party Echt voor Barendrecht (EVB) had won 14 out of 29 seats last time. All other parties - VVD, CDA, PvdA, D66, GroenLinks, ChristenUnie/SGP - decided to exclude them and form a coalition instead. Voters didn't like it one bit and gave EVB 20 out of 29 seats with 59.6% of the vote this time.
- In Zeewolde, tech multinational Meta (Facebook etc.) aims to build a controversial data center that will use a crazy amount of energy. Locals oppose it but the previous local council voted for it, pressured by lobbyists and with some shady, corrupt-seeming practices. The only two parties opposing the data center, Leefbaar Zeewolde (45.5%, +19%) and ChristenUnie (22.3%, +7.9%) made massive gains, will form a coalition, and will try to prevent the data center from being built.
- The eastern, very rural municipality of Tubbergen is usually the single best municipality for the CDA, both in local and in national elections. But the CDA mistreating Pieter Omtzigt (who is from the region) + farmers largely thinking the CDA betrayed them and now supporting BBB nationally has taken its toll. In a perfect storm, the CDA lost its absolute majority (29.3%, -32%).
- Coalition formation in Rotterdam will be a nightmare. Leefbaar Rotterdam has been the biggest party for two decades now, but was excluded by most other parties last time - instead, VVD, D66, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA and CU/SGP formed a coalition. But they lost their majority (20/45 seats) while Leefbaar even gained some ground and kept their 11 seats. None of SP, PvdD, Volt, BIJ1, DENK, or FVD seem logical candidates for the previous coalition to "add" to the city government. But any cooperation with Leefbaar will also be very difficult for any party to the left of the CDA, and the council continues to lean left. I ultimately think it will be an option with Leefbaar, but interesting for sure...

Psychologically quite a big boost for them, I presume?
Absolutely, though it won't erase their mediocre performance nationwide. Above all, this will probably boost Marjolein Moorman's career. It will be interesting to see what she will do differently compared to the previous city government, in which GL - as biggest party - was also held responsible for things that went wrong much more than the other parties, which should serve as a warning.
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« Reply #44 on: March 17, 2022, 07:09:41 PM »


- The eastern, very rural municipality of Tubbergen is usually the single best municipality for the CDA, both in local and in national elections. But the CDA mistreating Pieter Omtzigt (who is from the region) + farmers largely thinking the CDA betrayed them and now supporting BBB nationally has taken its toll. In a perfect storm, the CDA lost its absolute majority (29.3%, -32%).

I grew up there. Smiley.

Apart from the national issues you mentioned, CDA was the only party supporting a prestigious and expensive plan for a new town hall, which was not very popular with the population.

Another interesting result is the one from Reusel-de Mierden. It has a local council of 15 members, which means that Hare-Niemeyer/Largest remainder is used for seat apportionment.

Samenwerking (local party) 2571 votes (50.4%)
CDA 977
VVD 567
PvdA 536
D66 453

Based on this result, Samenwerking would just miss out on its 8th seat, ending up with 7 out of 15 seats with a majority of the votes. However, there is a rarely used clause in the electoral law that reapportions the last apportioned seat as an additional seat to Samenwerking. This deprives PvdA of its 2nd seat. Last time this clause was used was in the 1990s.
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« Reply #45 on: March 19, 2022, 05:25:05 AM »

Are there any embarrassed retrospectives on that Ukrainian referendum a few years back?
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jeron
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« Reply #46 on: March 19, 2022, 01:33:34 PM »

Are there any embarrassed retrospectives on that Ukrainian referendum a few years back?

Not really, everybody mainly sticks to their own opinion. Baudet has gone completely mad and now spews Russian propaganda in parliament and claims Putin is a wonderful guy. He claims the war is a corroboration of his point of view: the EU should not have signed an Association agreement with Ukraine as it was a threat to Russia and without it there would have been no war.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #47 on: March 20, 2022, 06:22:01 AM »

Are there any embarrassed retrospectives on that Ukrainian referendum a few years back?
The intellectual level of the public debate in the Netherlands is far too low for something like this to happen, and the extent to which "opinion makers" are stuck in the trenches far too high. I personally deeply regret voting against the Association Agreement but haven't seen this sentiment voiced anywhere in the media. (Though 90% of those who get a say in the media probably supported the Association Agreement to begin with.)
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #48 on: March 20, 2022, 07:21:37 AM »

This might be a silly question but what is stopping the various FVD splitters (JA21, BVNL, Otten) from working together? Is it actual policy differences or just egos?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #49 on: March 20, 2022, 02:29:57 PM »

This might be a silly question but what is stopping the various FVD splitters (JA21, BVNL, Otten) from working together? Is it actual policy differences or just egos?
Not a silly question at all. Otten is an unpleasant person and a bully and continues to rant not only about Baudet but also about Eerdmans on Twitter, partly because he blames him for staying too long with FVD. JA21 think the events in November 2020 (trying to formulate this as neutrally as possible...) already showed that FVD is "tainted" and are very reluctant in cooperating with anyone who stayed after that point (i.e. BVNL). So basically everybody thinks they got out at the right moment.

There are some policy differences as well  - Van Haga goes all in on Covid skepticism while this was one of the JA21 people's issues of conflict with Baudet - but this seems secondary.
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