🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[H. Ross Peron]

Was D66 as a whole previously anti-nuclear energy or was this just Jetten's position?

[H. Ross Peron]

^ This is one of the reasons why most parties agreed that it was necessary to reintroduce the Ministry for Urban Planning this time around. Indeed staggering.

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1,5 month until local elections. Here's an I&O poll for Amsterdam. That CDA figure... lol.

https://twitter.com/PeterKanne1/status/1488239091464421381?s=20&t=TEBIWfdzFa...

I like how CU is doing better than CDA in Amsterdam.

[H. Ross Peron]

With 94% of the vote in, De Hond and the GeenStijl team have the following final prognosis of the night:

PVV 38
GL-PvdA 25
VVD 24
NSC 21
D66 9
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 4
DENK 3
PvdD 3
FVD 3
SGP 3
ChristenUnie 3
Volt 2
JA21 0
All others 0

JA21 are just below the threshold, it will depend on a few hundred votes. Getting flashbacks from the Israeli New Right party with about the same position in their political system being in the same position.

The GeenStijl crew are calling it a night now and so do I.

CU and SGP being the same size now is remarkable. Presumably a lot of CU voters went tactically for NSC-were there any significant issue differences between the two parties?

[H. Ross Peron]

I'm finding some Groningen municipalities where GL/PVDA support declined from 2021, despite the D66 and SP vote also collapsing there.

Most extreme example might be Pekala:
GL/PVDA: 12.9%->9.5%
SP: 15.2%->5.8%
D66: 6.2%->1.8%

[H. Ross Peron]

What is the difference between PVV and FvD? I'm not seeing much reason for them to be different parties u less it's just a personalist thing.

FvD was much more focused on conspiracy theories and anti-Atlanticism while PVV was more 'normal' in that regard. FvD had a brief bubble a few years ago because they were the most prominent, loudest anti-lockdown voices, but since then they've fallen apart, with there being a viral moment (in Dutch unfortunately) where their leader, Baudet, speculates in Parliament that the moon landing may not have happened, and then Wilders mocks him by saying "this man is halfway to the moon already".

The divide between very-culturally-right-and-open-to-conspiracy-theories (Baudet) against very-culturally-right-but-living-in-the-real-world (Wilders) might be more visible to someone actually on the right (especially if you interpret skepticism about climate change, which I think they've both voiced, as "conspiracy theory"), but from my perspective they're really quite different. (A big tell here is that Wilders is very Zionist -- he literally lived in a West Bank settlement for some time in the 1980s -- and Baudet is more along the lines of being afraid of ZOG). Reaching for American equivalents is very hard, but if I had to compare to someone Baudet would be along the lines of a Charlie Kirk (a widely-mocked media figure), while Wilders is...uh...maybe Giuliani (guy who is moderate economically and even socially but very very very extreme culturally, and has also been around as a significant political figure basically forever), or given the weird ties to foreign movements perhaps Ron Paul (though Wilders is quite moderate economically but, again, very very very extreme culturally -- his most signature proposal is banning the Quran).

Best comparison imo is 2016 Trumpism (laser focused on immigration and to a lesser extent crime, strong antipathy to Islam, pragmatic on economics) vs post 2020 Trumpism (diffuse focus driven by faddishness resulting in kind of RW intersectionality'-ie hardline stances on say LGBT issues or antivax sentiment, increasingly conspiratorial). Ann Coulter vs MTG.

[H. Ross Peron]

It's both. The primary reason is that a larger percentage of the younger population is Muslim, but younger Muslims are also more likely to vote for DENK than older Muslims.

What’s the gender split like for Denk?

Haven't seen these statistics for this election yet, but in 2021 it was 60/40 male/female, I assume because Muslim men are more conservative and Muslim women vote for parties like D66/GL (Kauthar Bouchallikht?)/PvdA more often.

Is there a reason for the party doing better with younger Muslims? Is it sort of the same phenomenon where Muslims raised in less observant households become more observant?