Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[quesaisje]

Notably, this is the first Russian conscription cycle in this war that raises the upper age limit from 27 to 30. It will also include men in occupied Ukraine.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Another net 0.01% of Ukraine was captured by Russia last month.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1774999574999908423

[CumbrianLefty]

But.....b-but tHeY aRe On ThE vErGe Of ToTaL vIcToRy!!!??!!!?!!!11!!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

But.....b-but tHeY aRe On ThE vErGe Of ToTaL vIcToRy!!!??!!!?!!!11!!!

God you fools are so delusional clearly Russia wasting like whole tank divisions last week for little to no gain will lead to the fall of Kyiv

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657

Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

🇪🇪 Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657

Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

🇪🇪 Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

This is where Russia’s stubborn tactics these 6 months can bite them as ever since the house gop messed with aid, Russia got big ratio advantages in manpower and artillery and these used these advantages to just take Avdiivka after losing a ton in men and equipment and have since then been wasting a ton of manpower and equipment on human wave tactics on the small villages around Avdiivka and Robotyne and now we’re seeing the EU find a total of 2.5 million shells to send along with mobilization taking shape then Russia could be facing the prospect that they wasted this window for an actual breakthrough

[Virginiá]

This is where Russia’s stubborn tactics these 6 months can bite them as ever since the house gop messed with aid, Russia got big ratio advantages in manpower and artillery and these used these advantages to just take Avdiivka after losing a ton in men and equipment and have since then been wasting a ton of manpower and equipment on human wave tactics on the small villages around Avdiivka and Robotyne and now we’re seeing the EU find a total of 2.5 million shells to send along with mobilization taking shape then Russia could be facing the prospect that they wasted this window for an actual breakthrough

Not to mention Ukraine might still be able to access the deep stocks of 155mm DPICM from the US, if they ever get around to passing more aid. Ukraine could have some advantages in localized firepower by the end of the year if its allies buy out all the shell stocks they've found.

OTOH, Ukraine still needs to deal with its manpower/mobilization problem, so I think I do agree with other analysts in that 2024 is likely going to be primarily about defense for Ukraine, with fresh opportunities next year, as it takes time to stand up new brigades, which they've lost too much of now due to Republicans.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

"Zelensky signs law lowering draft age to 25 in bid to boost military ranks"

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-economy-roaring-start-sanctions-stock-markets-putin-central-bank-2024-4

"Russia says its economy is off to a — mostly — roaring 2024"

The financial firm estimated average for 2024 Q1 GDP growth for Russia is 4.1%.  A good part of this is the base effect as 2023 Q1 growth was still somewhat muted.  The real test would be 2024 Q2 GDP growth since 2023 Q2 was a very strong quarter for Russian economic growth.

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13248937/Sanctions-Moscow-hurt-European-economies-Russias-GROWN-encouraged-Putin-form-stronger-ties-China-aggressive-West.html

"Sanctions on Moscow have hurt European economies while Russia's has GROWN - and have only encouraged Putin to form stronger ties with China and be more aggressive towards the West"

This shift in Russia direction to "look east" you can say is a shifting of a 300+ year strategy that started with Peter the Great's "look west" strategy.

[GoTfan]

Jaichind once again proving himself a Putin supporter.

[PSOL]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

"Zelensky signs law lowering draft age to 25 in bid to boost military ranks"

This is honestly bull••••, it needs to be abolished entirely and conscription should be based on if they are an optimal physique and size for military equipment. Many youth develop much faster than others mentally and physically. Ukrainian government needs to draft among the refugees in the EU and NATO. Inherently, there’s no good reason why they should let people leave the country if not to help the war effort.

At the worst of it in 2014-2016, the Syrian government was training adolescents to defend themselves from the rebels. Obviously, it should be best to fine tune the curriculum among Ukrainians in their primary education to be prepared for war, and that includes using weaponry and military equipment.

It should be noted I’m not saying throw them into the frontlines or anything like that, but on the sides and rear there is historical precedent. The youth can also be used for reconnaissance operations and logistics as was done in the American war of independence and civil war to varying degrees.

[Woody]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

"Zelensky signs law lowering draft age to 25 in bid to boost military ranks"

The youth can also be used for reconnaissance operations and logistics as was done in the American war of independence and civil war to varying degrees.

That is not what they are looking for with this bill. Along with replenishing their dead, they also need to rotate and demobilize some of the guys who have served in the front for 2 years now. The political pressure for demobilizing them is high, and the Rada's only solution left is to replace them with conscripts.

[PSOL]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

"Zelensky signs law lowering draft age to 25 in bid to boost military ranks"

The youth can also be used for reconnaissance operations and logistics as was done in the American war of independence and civil war to varying degrees.

That is not what they are looking for with this bill. Along with replenishing their dead, they also need to rotate and demobilize some of the guys who have served in the front for 2 years now. The political pressure for demobilizing them is high, and the Rada's only solution left is to replace them with conscripts.

None of this contradicts what I said

None of it

[Storr]

Because it was so successful the last time you tried to take it:

"After the latest drone attacks on Russia this morning [targeting a drone factory and an oil refinery] - both over 1,200km from Ukraine - the chair of the State Duma’s defence committee Andrei Kartapolov says they will only cease once Kyiv is taken"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1775081001334485335?s=20

[Woody]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

"Zelensky signs law lowering draft age to 25 in bid to boost military ranks"

The youth can also be used for reconnaissance operations and logistics as was done in the American war of independence and civil war to varying degrees.

That is not what they are looking for with this bill. Along with replenishing their dead, they also need to rotate and demobilize some of the guys who have served in the front for 2 years now. The political pressure for demobilizing them is high, and the Rada's only solution left is to replace them with conscripts.

None of this contradicts what I said

None of it

The majority of the conscripts will not be "logistics and reconnaissance"

They will be fighting in the frontlines. They will also be serving in assault units if Zelensky wants another go at an offensive.

[Storr]

This isn't war related, but no doubt it has had at least a tiny effect on national moral. Anyway, the Ukrainian men's football (or soccer as we call it in freedomland) team qualified for the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 after defeating Iceland 2-1 in the qualification playoff path B final. The team was one goal away from making the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, losing to Wales 1-0 in the UEFA qualification second round path A final. Because of the war, since February 2022 all of the team's home games have been played in Poland.

Zelensky: "Thank you, guys!
Thank you, team!
For significant emotions for the entire country.
For the important victory and making it to EURO.
For proving once again: whenever Ukrainians face difficulties but do not give up and continue to fight, Ukrainians certainly win.
In times, when the enemy tries to destroy us, we demonstrate every day that Ukrainians are and will be.
Ukraine is, and will be!
Thank you for the victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦"

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1772743530684809713?s=20

[Annatar]

Governing constraint for both sides in this war is manpower, neither side is going to run out of any other resource for continuing the war, hence why its in Ukraine's interest to try and win sooner rather than later, net manpower flows will eventually turn negative for the Ukrainian military at which point it will begin to contract in size which will allow Russian forces to push forward and occupy the country, only question is how many years away that point is, perhaps 3-4.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-great-risk-front-line-collapse-war-russia/

"Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing"

Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Governing constraint for both sides in this war is manpower, neither side is going to run out of any other resource for continuing the war, hence why its in Ukraine's interest to try and win sooner rather than later, net manpower flows will eventually turn negative for the Ukrainian military at which point it will begin to contract in size which will allow Russian forces to push forward and occupy the country, only question is how many years away that point is, perhaps 3-4.

At current pace of losses vs production Russia is going to run out of equipment before that happens for Ukraine

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack

"‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack"



At a certain level, this makes sense although past 2024 it would make less and less sense at the  Rostov-on-Don to Crimea railroad link comes online.

It seems the new railroad that links Rostov-on-Don with Crimea via the newly captured territories will be operational by end of 2024

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/russia-is-outpacing-ukraine-s-allies-in-the-race-for-ammunition?embedded-checkout=true

"Moscow Is Outpacing Ukraine’s Allies in the Race for Ammunition"

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/02/allies-consider-moving-ukraine-arms-group-into-nato-to-shield-it-from-trump-00150151

"Trump-proofing weapons for Ukraine: Allies consider moving arms group into NATO"



This sounds like mostly PR.  Without USA there is no NATO

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/russia-is-outpacing-ukraine-s-allies-in-the-race-for-ammunition?embedded-checkout=true

"Moscow Is Outpacing Ukraine’s Allies in the Race for Ammunition"

After talking about how F-16 was going to change the war for Ukraine once they get them there are already signs of hedging now some F-16s will show up in limited numbers later this year on the exact impact they are expected to have

“But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said.

[jaichind]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-price-increase-impact-tax-revenue-western-sanctions-2024-4

"Spiking oil prices helped Russia energy-tax revenue double last month"

It seems this is partly driven by the narrowing of the Ural crude discount.  Over time the market adjusts to collective West sanctions toward a new price equilibrium for Ural crude.