Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/29/ignatius-zelensky-interview-ukraine-aid-russia/

"Zelensky: ‘We are trying to find some way not to retreat’"

“If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-milimeter artillery rounds,” he said. “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”

More of the "stabbed in the back" narrative

[jaichind]

https://insideparadeplatz.ch/2024/03/28/untergang-der-ukraine-wehrfaehigkeit-der-schweiz/

"Fall of Ukraine, Switzerland's ability to defend itself"

Swiss media predict defeat of Ukraine by end of 2024

Apparently, Ukraine today has an insufficient stock of 155 mm caliber artillery ammunition. The deliveries announced so far by the EU have only been meager.

In some cases, arms deliveries promised by the USA and other countries never materialized. These include the F-16 fighter jets, which Ukraine urgently needs to defend against Russian bomber aircraft and glide bombs.

Due to internal machinations, the Zelensky regime has not yet been able to decide on the necessary mobilization of new soldiers. The combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army is considered exhausted.

Due to this situation, Ukraine is likely to have only a limited ability to fend off Russia's upcoming offensives.

Unfortunately, it must be expected that Ukraine could collapse by the end of 2024.

[jaichind]

Forbes May 2023


vs
Forbes March 2024

[PSOL]

Ukraine needs to conscript refugees and close their borders to stop deserters from fleeing.

The only way out of this mess long term is for Joe Biden to grow a pair and deploy a peacekeeping mission at the frontlines and enforce it with a no-fly zone and actual follow up with military forces if Russia breaks such a red line.

Don’t be such a pu$$y joe, learn from Obama’s mistake in Syria and enforce the defense of liberty in Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Forbes May 2023
[image]

vs
Forbes March 2024
[image]

As Hindsight has noted the media narrative surrounding this war has been basically schizophrenic.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why all the sneery references above to "a stabbed in the back narrative"?

We know who HAS stabbed Ukraine in the back - the US Republicans, at the behest of Orange Man.

Before that, any significant Russian breakthrough was not a remotely serious possibility.

As they say, join the dots.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why all the sneery references above to "a stabbed in the back narrative"?

We know who HAS stabbed Ukraine in the back - the US Republicans, at the behest of Orange Man.

Before that, any significant Russian breakthrough was not a remotely serious possibility.

As they say, join the dots.

Because jaichind is a Putin simping fascist who takes trollish delight in making snide comments like that

[jaichind]

Why all the sneery references above to "a stabbed in the back narrative"?

We know who HAS stabbed Ukraine in the back - the US Republicans, at the behest of Orange Man.

Before that, any significant Russian breakthrough was not a remotely serious possibility.

As they say, join the dots.

Is this not just a difference between a Trump vs Biden grand strategy

From where I see it I would call the Trump strategy  連俄制中 or Ally with Russia to contain PRC
while the Biden strategy is what I would call 破俄圍中 or Break Russia to create a grand encirclement of PRC.

For me, Trump's strategy is superior as the Biden strategy assumes a breakable Russia which now is shown not to be the case.  The Biden approach reminds me a lot of Napoleon 1812 "I will break Russia and then turn on the UK" and Hitler 1941 "I will break USSR and then turn on the Anglo powers" 

I doubt $61 billion would make that much of the difference other than delay the day of reckoning for Ukraine (perhaps beyond the 2024 USA elections which I suspect is the real reason for the $61 billion package). 

The shift of the media narrative to "stab in the back" is more about the acceptance that the 破俄圍中 or Break Russia to create a grand encirclement of PRC will not work.  The logical next step should be to embrace the Trump 連俄制中 or Ally with Russia to contain PRC.  I suspect it might be too late for that but it is always worth trying.

[GeneralMacArthur]

For me, Trump's strategy is superior as the Biden strategy assumes a breakable Russia which now is shown not to be the case. 

It's not the case because Republicans have prevented Biden from sending further military aid to Ukraine, thus starving Ukraine of resources it planned on having, which has allowed Russia to break through.

The only failure in Joe Biden's strategy was that he did not count on the appalling depths that the Republican Party was willing to sink in its treason.

[HillGoose]

Why all the sneery references above to "a stabbed in the back narrative"?

We know who HAS stabbed Ukraine in the back - the US Republicans, at the behest of Orange Man.

Before that, any significant Russian breakthrough was not a remotely serious possibility.

As they say, join the dots.

Is this not just a difference between a Trump vs Biden grand strategy

From where I see it I would call the Trump strategy  連俄制中 or Ally with Russia to contain PRC
while the Biden strategy is what I would call 破俄圍中 or Break Russia to create a grand encirclement of PRC.

For me, Trump's strategy is superior as the Biden strategy assumes a breakable Russia which now is shown not to be the case.  The Biden approach reminds me a lot of Napoleon 1812 "I will break Russia and then turn on the UK" and Hitler 1941 "I will break USSR and then turn on the Anglo powers"  

I doubt $61 billion would make that much of the difference other than delay the day of reckoning for Ukraine (perhaps beyond the 2024 USA elections which I suspect is the real reason for the $61 billion package).  

The shift of the media narrative to "stab in the back" is more about the acceptance that the 破俄圍中 or Break Russia to create a grand encirclement of PRC will not work.  The logical next step should be to embrace the Trump 連俄制中 or Ally with Russia to contain PRC.  I suspect it might be too late for that but it is always worth trying.

AMERICA could whoop the russkis, red chinese, and iranians asses ALL at the same time EASILY

[Red Velvet]

AMERICA could whoop the russkis, red chinese, and iranians asses ALL at the same time EASILY

Not really, otherwise why don’t you simply do it for once? Every conflict has risks, you couldn’t win Afghanistan to put things in perspective.

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/lack-of-funds-for-ukraine-shell-purchase-initiated-by-czech-republic-estonia-claims/ar-BB1kNrYy

"Lack of funds for Ukraine shell purchase initiated by Czech Republic, Estonia claims"

Yeah, when you publically announced that you will buy a lot of shells whatever the price then the market prices for shells will rise sharply. 

[gerritcole]

For secure European defense and security, the Germans must remember their military traditions and rebuild/rearm and perhaps mentally move past ww2 as a block in their way a la Japan in recent years

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/29/ukraine-russia-airstrikes-energy-war/

"Russia strikes power plants in heavy blow to Ukrainian electric grid"



I think Russia's goal is to try to isolate Eastern Ukraine's electrical grid from the rest of Ukraine to make it easier when they launch their general offensive later when the Rasputitsa is over

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1774387800978100329?t=mkenhPXP3R3ofyJwsHP3Tg&...
https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1774395014132449412?s=20
Russia with another “ LEEEEEEEEEEEEROOOOOOOOOOY JENNNNNNKINNNSSSSSS” charge

[Electric Circus]

NYT article (published yesterday) takes an interesting angle on how individual brigades are running their own recruitment drives, saying the official mobilization process run by the army is corrupt, ineffective, and just plain bad at advertising:

Slick recruiting campaigns brimming with nationalist fervor have become ubiquitous in Kyiv, the capital, and other Ukrainian cities in recent months. They are perhaps the most visible sign of a push to replenish Ukrainian troops depleted by more than two years of a brutal war — an effort that experts and officials say is crucial for fending off relentless Russian attacks.

But most of the campaigns are not the work of the country’s political and military leadership. They are the initiatives of troop-starved brigades that have taken matters into their own hands, shunning an official mobilization system that they say is dysfunctional, often drafting people who are unfit and unwilling to fight.

“These campaigns are much more effective because we’re getting exactly the people we need,” said Dmytro Koziatynskyi, a combat medic turned recruiter in the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, which started as a paramilitary wing of a coalition of far-right political parties after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

[jaichind]

Anti-Putin Russia media outfit Mediazona, working with the BBC, has a count on Russian KIA based on scraping obituaries.  I will not trust the March 2024 numbers yet since obituaries are a lagging indicator.  Still, the trend of Russian KIA is clearly down. 

In this war, most KIA on both sides are from artillery.  So if Ukraine is running short of artillery shells and need to economize then that will show up in the Russian KIA numbers.


In the meantime, ISW says that the Russian military is adding around 30K to its ranks every month.  Of course, this is gross, not net, as there will be exits due to members having their tour of duty time being up.

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/taurus-hersteller-klagt-ueber-langsame-vergabe-von-ruestungsauftraegen-a-fa34580a-6f2e-41cf-8049-b1531daf8d41

"Taurus manufacturer complains about slow awarding of defense contracts"

No orders, no Taurus missiles: The defense company MBDA is calling on the federal government to make faster award decisions. Suppliers would otherwise stop production.

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3

"Ukraine says Russia in less than a week hit it with 700 glide bombs, weapons that can really only be beaten by killing the planes"

Glide-bombs strikes allow Russia to hit Ukrainian forces while keeping the aircraft releasing the munitions at a safe distance, and that's a problem because the bomb can really only be countered by shooting down the aircraft before it drops it.

Shooting down the fighter-bombers means putting precious air defenses closer to the front, where they'll be at greater risk. It also means pulling stretched capabilities away from other areas. Ukrainian air defenses also don't have enough ammo.

[UWS]

https://www.midilibre.fr/2024/03/31/guerre-en-ukraine-des-centaines-de-blindes-et-missiles-la-france-va-livrer-des-equipements-anciens-mais-operationnels-a-kiev-11861155.php|

France to deliver armored vehicles and missiles towards Ukraine|

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1774460897412395097?s=20
Good map summary of the front (and puts a certain blue and yellow avatars pro-Russian trolling into perspective)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The only failure in Joe Biden's strategy was that he did not count on the appalling depths that the Republican Party was willing to sink in its treason.

This mistake is neither novel nor unique to Biden, and it is going to end up carved on the tombstone of the American Republic. (Amazingly, this is despite years of the GOP screaming at the top of its lungs, "we are committed to destroying the United States and we will sink beyond the bottom of the Abyss to achieve that goal"!)

[American2020]

On the social media, many "African" users have said Africa supports Russia.

Look at this.





https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/african-sentiment-favouring-ukraine

Sociam Media have become Weapons of Massive Dinsinformation and Disruption.

[UWS]

https://ilkha.com/english/world/putin-signs-decree-to-conscript-150000-citizens-in-spring-military-campaign-386058

In the context of the War in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling to mobilize 150,000 people over 18 to service in the Russian Army. That is another evidence that Putin is preparing a large-scale offensive in Ukraine in May or June. That’s why the U.S. and their Allie’s must accelerate the providing of military aid to Ukraine in order to counter that threat, to counter such an offensive#

[oldtimer]

https://ilkha.com/english/world/putin-signs-decree-to-conscript-150000-citizens-in-spring-military-campaign-386058

In the context of the War in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling to mobilize 150,000 people over 18 to service in the Russian Army. That is another evidence that Putin is preparing a large-scale offensive in Ukraine in May or June. That’s why the U.S. and their Allie’s must accelerate the providing of military aid to Ukraine in order to counter that threat, to counter such an offensive#

More likely that 150k is their casualty number during the time from their previous mobilization.