Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/29/ukraine-winter-war-russia-putin/

"Ukraine’s Nightmare Scenario Is Now Its Reality"

It was a nightmare scenario that Ukrainian and Western officials had feared for months. Western officials have watched as Russia stacked up precision-guided munitions to launch targeted attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the winter while keeping up the pace of strikes on cities using unguided “dumb” bombs.

I bet whoever came up with the "The ground has frozen. The aid is freezing, too." line got a little raise.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like Ukraine hit Belgorod in retaliation this morning

[bilaps]

Expecting indictment of Zelensky by International Criminal Court any minute now.

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2023/12/28/russia-heads-into-2024-making-a-mockery-of-western-oil-sanctions

"Russia Heads Into 2024 Making A Mockery Of Western Oil Sanctions"



I do not think it will be as easy for Russia in 2024.  I think there will be an economic slowdown if not a contraction in the collective West in 2024 which would make the power balance in energy trade turn against Russia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Izvestia (pro-Kremlin outfit): "Putin's visit to the Middle East confirmed the empty sound in words about the isolation of the Russian Federation"
https://iz.ru/1618522/2023-12-11/vizit-putina-na-blizhnii-vostok-podtverdil-pustoi-zvuk-v-slovakh-ob-izoliatcii-rf


It's clear that Arab elites are implacably opposed to any total isolating of Russia.

[PSOL]

Ukraine would be in a lot better position if they weren’t being held back by NATO in attacking Russia proper as hard with their current capabilities as Russia bombs their own cities. A significant amount of Russians would be dead and broken if the nation were demoralized through terrorism.

Terrorism works, just as the bombing campaign against Ukraine takes its toll so too did the IRA make the British come to the negotiating table. It also gives the weaker benefactor something to feel good about as they strike their enemies homeland. Ukrainians needed that boost just as their previous escapade into the Russian border and droning Moscow raised their spirits. Just put a cover of some music or have some TikTok or twitch streamer give their take on it.

[Woody]

Ukraine would be in a lot better position if they weren’t being held back by NATO in attacking Russia proper as hard with their current capabilities as Russia bombs their own cities. A significant amount of Russians would be dead and broken if the nation were demoralized through terrorism.

Terrorism works, just as the bombing campaign against Ukraine takes its toll so too did the IRA make the British come to the negotiating table. It also gives the weaker benefactor something to feel good about as they strike their enemies homeland. Ukrainians needed that boost just as their previous escapade into the Russian border and droning Moscow raised their spirits. Just put a cover of some music or have some TikTok or twitch streamer give their take on it.

Ever hear of the Chechen Wars? Nord-Ost, Beslan, Budyonnovsk, etc.

[PSOL]

Ukraine would be in a lot better position if they weren’t being held back by NATO in attacking Russia proper as hard with their current capabilities as Russia bombs their own cities. A significant amount of Russians would be dead and broken if the nation were demoralized through terrorism.

Terrorism works, just as the bombing campaign against Ukraine takes its toll so too did the IRA make the British come to the negotiating table. It also gives the weaker benefactor something to feel good about as they strike their enemies homeland. Ukrainians needed that boost just as their previous escapade into the Russian border and droning Moscow raised their spirits. Just put a cover of some music or have some TikTok or twitch streamer give their take on it.

Ever hear of the Chechen Wars? Nord-Ost, Beslan, Budyonnovsk, etc.

Morale boosters for the masses raped by the Russian invaders, and great points of attention in worldwide media.

The Russian army bombs with impunity now and there really is widescale support among people who actually matter in the Russian federation because they haven’t actually taken the brunt of the violence. Bringing the war home to them as well as striking strategic and symbolic targets work in depressing the population. The Russian Federation is basically too cowardly to escalate this war and fight in a smart way as they should have, NATO/Ukraine might as well go ballistic on them.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

[PSOL]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I don’t want aid to increase, and Ukraine doesn’t necessarily need more aid but more leeway in running this war as they want it, effective.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I do know Ukrainians on the ground who share that sentiment and are frustrated that they feel they have to fight with one hand tied behind their back when it comes to this issue

[KaiserDave]

A great way to make Putin's imaginary Ukrainian fascist state real is to give it a stab-in-the-back narrative. Simultaneously, Russia is already descending towards fascism, experiencing a failed fascist coup d'etat by a disgruntled hot dog salesman earlier this year.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I do know Ukrainians on the ground who share that sentiment and are frustrated that they feel they have to fight with one hand tied behind their back when it comes to this issue

And many people in NATO countries (including politicians, powerful ones in some cases) complain about Ukraine’s lack of progress and want to use that as justification to stop supporting the country.

The most charitable explanation is that they’re simply uninformed, but that cannot possibly true of those in government espousing this view.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I don’t want aid to increase, and Ukraine doesn’t necessarily need more aid but more leeway in running this war as they want it, effective.

Ukraine has above average competency compared to a typical NATO military (all because it's never had the luxury of getting rusty).
Ukraine absolutely needs more leeway to run the war the way it wants. Let Zelensky take the role of Stalin if we're lining up to be the FDR.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/30/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles-kyiv.html

"How a Russian Barrage Evaded Ukraine’s Defenses to Wreak Deadly Chaos"

Historically, Ukraine always claims a 90%+ intercept rate for incoming Russian missile attacks.  This time around they are not making that claim.  One difference is that Ukraine's old air defense system was based on leftover USSR systems.  Now ammo for those systems is all out they have to switch to systems based on NATO technologies.  Either the NATO air defense systems are not as effective as the USSR-based systems or the Ukranians do not know how to operate them or most likely both.

[oldtimer]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-press-conference-2/

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We want to see Ukraine win the war.  And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression.  That’s our objective.

Note winning according to Biden no longer includes Ukraine joining NATO or any mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-aid.html

"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"

More shifting of goalposts on defining victory coming from the USA.

Of course they don't need to, until now they are winning simply by holding or capturing all the usefull or strategic territory, like the intersection in Uman, the factories of Kharkov, the bridges on the Dnieper ect.

But if by "Defeating Putin" is to remove Putin, they have to go to Moscow.

[CumbrianLefty]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I do know Ukrainians on the ground who share that sentiment and are frustrated that they feel they have to fight with one hand tied behind their back when it comes to this issue

And many people in NATO countries (including politicians, powerful ones in some cases) complain about Ukraine’s lack of progress and want to use that as justification to stop supporting the country.

The most charitable explanation is that they’re simply uninformed, but that cannot possibly true of those in government espousing this view.

Well when it comes to the GOP, its because lots of them are actual pro-Russian traitors.

[jaichind]

EU exports of cars and trucks to UAE surged after the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict.  It is clear where the extra cars and trucks are going.

[Badger]

I see this thread continues to be marred by a certain couple rabidly pro war crime pro mass rape anti-democracy sociopaths continuously hyper posting with one hand.

[Logical]

Indian made artillery shells used by Ukraine. Most likely sold through a third party arms dealer. So much #multipolarity
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1741026617886118100?t=fEd-ZYItIIUbrq3...
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1741407306854662558?t=N8bY1_I3uBPMuus...

[Hollywood]

Indian made artillery shells used by Ukraine. Most likely sold through a third party arms dealer. So much #multipolarity
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1741026617886118100?t=fEd-ZYItIIUbrq3...
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1741407306854662558?t=N8bY1_I3uBPMuus...

The third parties were Israel and the US, which is evident from the military agreements and past covert arms sales between Israel and India.  The UK is also working to covertly supply weapons for Ukraine, but Pakistan is playing both sides.   

Ukraine is welcome to them as we snatched a bunch of their 155mm shells the US had earmarked for them.  A lot of shells are on their way as long as the US can help hit targets in Houthi strongholds on the Yemeni Coast.  The Saudis can only do so much given the political situation. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sucks that the CO failed and the gop are being dicks about aid but hopefully F16s, increased EU production/aid, US aid being approved and the frozen asset plan helps 24 to bring better days for this amazing country
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1741618064599241140?s=12

[CanadianDemocrat]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I do know Ukrainians on the ground who share that sentiment and are frustrated that they feel they have to fight with one hand tied behind their back when it comes to this issue

And many people in NATO countries (including politicians, powerful ones in some cases) complain about Ukraine’s lack of progress and want to use that as justification to stop supporting the country.

The most charitable explanation is that they’re simply uninformed, but that cannot possibly true of those in government espousing this view.

Western timidity and cowardliness is causing Ukraine to not be able to launch a strategically successful counteroffensive, due not enough weaponry sent to Ukraine.  The West should be sending more heavy offensive weapons to help Ukraine win in the long term, instead of encouraging peace talks with a terrorist genocidal regime.

Handing over 17% of Ukrainian territory for a cease fire would be a disaster for the millions of Ukrainian people trapped living under Russian occupation.

[Hollywood]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I do know Ukrainians on the ground who share that sentiment and are frustrated that they feel they have to fight with one hand tied behind their back when it comes to this issue

And many people in NATO countries (including politicians, powerful ones in some cases) complain about Ukraine’s lack of progress and want to use that as justification to stop supporting the country.

The most charitable explanation is that they’re simply uninformed, but that cannot possibly true of those in government espousing this view.

Western timidity and cowardliness is causing Ukraine to not be able to launch a strategically successful counteroffensive, due not enough weaponry sent to Ukraine.  The West should be sending more heavy offensive weapons to help Ukraine win in the long term, instead of encouraging peace talks with a terrorist genocidal regime.

Handing over 17% of Ukrainian territory for a cease fire would be a disaster for the millions of Ukrainian people trapped living under Russian occupation.

Your blaming the entire Western Hemisphere?  How about blame the European Nations that should have been stocking military supplies and energy reserves for the last decade so it didn't fall on the US, UK, Greece, and Poland to shoulder the responsibility when the long-waited Russian invasion finally occurred.  If Ukraine would have had all those weapons from the beginning, they could have actually launched an offensive before Russia built fortifications. 

I honestly can't believe how fast Democrats eroded bipartisan support for Ukraine.  Don't you find it strange that 80% of Republicans, 70% of Independents, and 30% of Democrats oppose sending weapons to Ukraine, but 95% of the posters on the thread think all those people are cowards, traitors or uninformed people. No. Democrats have just pushed these people away with their extremist rhetoric.  Democrats are currently blocking Israel aid by stuffing the Ukrainian funds into the package, which cause further divisions among natural allies, and Republicans retaliated by sticking-in border security.  Good.  Let's play a game of 'chicken' over border security, because that is issue is a higher priority for Americans, and Ukrainian supporters should concede to those demands given that they have no time to waste. 

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-2024-b2471230.html

"What we can expect from the war in Ukraine in 2024"

That means that Ukraine is likely to remain on the defensive for much of 2024, and indeed construction of fortifications along Russia’s main potential lines of advance has already begun. Russia, meanwhile, can either wait for a Trump presidency to tilt the balance of power further in the Kremlin’s favour along with a new conscript army, or go all-in with a new offensive to push for new territorial gains ahead of Vladimir Putin’s own re-election in March 2024.

I think Russia will continue its attritional warfare approach and take advantage of Ukraine's political need to avoid territorial losses to draw the Ukraine military into constant battle across the front so it cannot rest and build defenses.   It will not deliver victory anytime soon but will prevent a Ukraine military revival by keeping the Ukraine forces tired and unable to recover.