Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

It seems current thinking in the Biden Administration with respect to the $300 billion Russia assets is the following: Since it is "illegal" to just take the money what can be done is for the USA government to put this money in a trust with Ukraine as a trustee.  What Ukraine can then do is issue bonds, mostly to be bought by Wall Street firms, with the trust as collateral.  Then, ideally,  Ukraine repay those bonds over the next 20-30 years and then this money will be returned to Russia.

I like the cleverness of the plan.  Of course, I suspect Russia will take its own countermeasures if this were to come to pass.

The 300 billion assets would be handed over to Ukraine as war crime compensation, Ukraine wouldn’t be expected to pay that back nor would Russia see it again. Plus it not necessarily “illegal” to seize it, all the articles touching on this (including the ones you’ve been citing) mention the legal precedent of doing this when Iraq’s frozen assets were sent to Kuwait as compensation

[Omega21]

It seems current thinking in the Biden Administration with respect to the $300 billion Russia assets is the following: Since it is "illegal" to just take the money what can be done is for the USA government to put this money in a trust with Ukraine as a trustee.  What Ukraine can then do is issue bonds, mostly to be bought by Wall Street firms, with the trust as collateral.  Then, ideally,  Ukraine repay those bonds over the next 20-30 years and then this money will be returned to Russia.

I like the cleverness of the plan.  Of course, I suspect Russia will take its own countermeasures if this were to come to pass.

The 300 billion assets would be handed over to Ukraine as war crime compensation, Ukraine wouldn’t be expected to pay that back nor would Russia see it again. Plus it not necessarily “illegal” to seize it, all the articles touching on this (including the ones you’ve been citing) mention the legal precedent of doing this when Iraq’s frozen assets were sent to Kuwait as compensation

The 300 billion is not wholly in the US.

A large chunk is in other Western Nations, mostly the EU.

So far, Europe has only entertained the option of giving Ukraine the proceeds of the capital, not the capital itself, and that is unlikely to change, unless you want the Russians to shut off all our gas, cause inflation again, and lead to 30% AfD & co across the EU.  (FPÖ is already at 31% here)

Our economies are in stagflation, and the prognosis for 2024 is not any better. Massive deindustrialization is taking place across the continent, so, it is not that the EU is less pro Ukraine than the US, just that their options are more limited.

[jaichind]

The 300 billion is not wholly in the US.

A large chunk is in other Western Nations, mostly the EU.

So far, Europe has only entertained the option of giving Ukraine the proceeds of the capital, not the capital itself, and that is unlikely to change, unless you want the Russians to shut off all our gas, cause inflation again, and lead to 30% AfD & co across the EU.  (FPÖ is already at 31% here)

Our economies are in stagflation, and the prognosis for 2024 is not any better. Massive deindustrialization is taking place across the continent, so, it is not that the EU is less pro Ukraine than the US, just that their options are more limited.

I recall reading that $200 billion is in Belgium and $50 billion is in Switzerland.   

[Omega21]

The 300 billion is not wholly in the US.

A large chunk is in other Western Nations, mostly the EU.

So far, Europe has only entertained the option of giving Ukraine the proceeds of the capital, not the capital itself, and that is unlikely to change, unless you want the Russians to shut off all our gas, cause inflation again, and lead to 30% AfD & co across the EU.  (FPÖ is already at 31% here)

Our economies are in stagflation, and the prognosis for 2024 is not any better. Massive deindustrialization is taking place across the continent, so, it is not that the EU is less pro Ukraine than the US, just that their options are more limited.

I recall reading that $200 billion is in Belgium and $50 billion is in Switzerland.   

I think that by Belgium, they mean Brussels, i.e. the EU.

All in all, the amount frozen within the US and UK is around 60-70 Billion USD.



https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/06/06/could-seizing-russian-assets-help-rebuild-ukraine

[Hindsight was 2020]

It seems current thinking in the Biden Administration with respect to the $300 billion Russia assets is the following: Since it is "illegal" to just take the money what can be done is for the USA government to put this money in a trust with Ukraine as a trustee.  What Ukraine can then do is issue bonds, mostly to be bought by Wall Street firms, with the trust as collateral.  Then, ideally,  Ukraine repay those bonds over the next 20-30 years and then this money will be returned to Russia.

I like the cleverness of the plan.  Of course, I suspect Russia will take its own countermeasures if this were to come to pass.

The 300 billion assets would be handed over to Ukraine as war crime compensation, Ukraine wouldn’t be expected to pay that back nor would Russia see it again. Plus it not necessarily “illegal” to seize it, all the articles touching on this (including the ones you’ve been citing) mention the legal precedent of doing this when Iraq’s frozen assets were sent to Kuwait as compensation

The 300 billion is not wholly in the US.

A large chunk is in other Western Nations, mostly the EU.

So far, Europe has only entertained the option of giving Ukraine the proceeds of the capital, not the capital itself, and that is unlikely to change, unless you want the Russians to shut off all our gas, cause inflation again, and lead to 30% AfD & co across the EU.  (FPÖ is already at 31% here)

Our economies are in stagflation, and the prognosis for 2024 is not any better. Massive deindustrialization is taking place across the continent, so, it is not that the EU is less pro Ukraine than the US, just that their options are more limited.

Well all the recent articles on this say momentum is building in Europe for doing this. Plus a lot of the countries in the EU have been getting off of Russia gas since the war. Germany for example is getting most of its gas now from Norway. The fear right now doesn’t seem to be Russia shutting off gas but China or Saudi Arabia freaking out and pulling out their assets but even then China or Saudi Arabia options of where to put them are limited

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I loathe the idea of undermining American property rights by treating Russian assets like this. It's an awful idea. Stability for American propertyholders is paramount, more important than giving Ukraine more compensation, and willfully creating awful precedents that could be used against us in the future if we do this is not the brightest thing.
If we decide to cross that bridge we reap the consequences for it, and we'll deserve it.

[Damocles]

Did Germany ever get to keep any of its N*zi gold?

No?

RuZZia shouldn't get to keep any of its gold, either.

Stop treating RuZZia with kid gloves.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pointing to the Iraq War as a precedent is kind of silly at best here. Newsflash, Russia is far less isolated and far more powerful than Iraq was in 2003.
"Kid gloves" or not, long-term prudence is vital and what goes around comes around. Ukraine needs assistance, but there are wrong ways of doing it. If this isn't merely being used as a bargaining chip, then we're looking at a manifestly unneeded risk for American corporate assets in the Third World. Or elsewhere!
Reckless, reckless, reckless.
And no amount of unserious clownish fantasies can hide the truth that no amount of endlessly likening an orange to an apple actually turns that orange into an apple. Except in your dreams. But in your dreams anything goes, obviously. Thank god the world mostly isn't run by people who can't distinguish their dreams from reality.

[jaichind]

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2023/12/24/news/nobel_robert_shiller_confiscare_fondi_russi_per_ucraina_rischioso_cataclisma_sul_dollaro-421741358/

"Nobel Shiller: “Confiscating Russian funds to give them to Ukraine is risky. It would cause a cataclysm on the dollar system.""

Yale economist and 2013 Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller warns against confiscating Russian funds due to the risk of shattering the halo of security that surrounds the dollar and become the first step towards the de-dollarisation

[Florida Man for Crime]

So anyway, in the past couple of days there have been several Russian jets which have mysteriously disappeared over Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/isw-russia-reducing-aviation-activity-123228541.html

Russian forces are decreasing aviation activity and use of glide bombs after Ukraine’s military shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber jets on Dec. 21-22, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Dec. 24.

The ISW cited Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat and military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets saying that Russian troops have limited their use of glide bombs and air strikes in southern Ukraine as well as manned aviation near occupied Crimea.

Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk announced on Dec. 22 that his troops had downed three Russian Su-34 supersonic fighter-bomber aircraft on the southern front. Three days later, the Air Force reported the downing of another Su-34 plane and a Su-30 fighter jet.

At the same time, an Australian E-7A Wedgetail electronic surveillance plane - a significant upgrade over the old E-3 AWACS that previously had been flying around the Ukrainian border - has begun flying around the Ukrainian border instead.

https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/news/2023-12-19/trusted-eyes-european-skies

Night has fallen at Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany, and the temperature plummets towards freezing, but the cold weather does not deter the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) maintenance crew hard at work on the tarmac.

Their efforts are to prepare the RAAF Wedgetail E-7A, a twin-engine airborne early warning and control aircraft, which has deployed to Europe under Operation Kudu.

The Wedgetail E-7A and a contingent of about 100 personnel have deployed to Germany with a mission profile of protecting humanitarian and military assistance bound for Ukraine.

Their flying missions have successfully commenced.

...

The aircraft has deployed at the request of the United States Air Force (USAF) to integrate with the effort of Australia’s partners, including the United States and NATO, to support the multilayered protection of an eastern European logistic hub. 

Of course, there couldn't possibly be a connection between these two things, nor could there be a connection with the fact Ukrainian F-16 pilot training has been going on for a while now. I'm sure the Russian planes are just crashing themselves due to random mechanical failures.

[bilaps]

Shoigu and Putin have officially announced taking of Marinka. Avdeevka is next.

[Woody]

So anyway, in the past couple of days there have been several Russian jets which have mysteriously disappeared over Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/isw-russia-reducing-aviation-activity-123228541.html

Are the downed Russian jets in the room with us right now?

[Hindsight was 2020]

So anyway, in the past couple of days there have been several Russian jets which have mysteriously disappeared over Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/isw-russia-reducing-aviation-activity-123228541.html

Russian forces are decreasing aviation activity and use of glide bombs after Ukraine’s military shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber jets on Dec. 21-22, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Dec. 24.

The ISW cited Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat and military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets saying that Russian troops have limited their use of glide bombs and air strikes in southern Ukraine as well as manned aviation near occupied Crimea.

Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk announced on Dec. 22 that his troops had downed three Russian Su-34 supersonic fighter-bomber aircraft on the southern front. Three days later, the Air Force reported the downing of another Su-34 plane and a Su-30 fighter jet.

At the same time, an Australian E-7A Wedgetail electronic surveillance plane - a significant upgrade over the old E-3 AWACS that previously had been flying around the Ukrainian border - has begun flying around the Ukrainian border instead.

https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/news/2023-12-19/trusted-eyes-european-skies

Night has fallen at Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany, and the temperature plummets towards freezing, but the cold weather does not deter the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) maintenance crew hard at work on the tarmac.

Their efforts are to prepare the RAAF Wedgetail E-7A, a twin-engine airborne early warning and control aircraft, which has deployed to Europe under Operation Kudu.

The Wedgetail E-7A and a contingent of about 100 personnel have deployed to Germany with a mission profile of protecting humanitarian and military assistance bound for Ukraine.

Their flying missions have successfully commenced.

...

The aircraft has deployed at the request of the United States Air Force (USAF) to integrate with the effort of Australia’s partners, including the United States and NATO, to support the multilayered protection of an eastern European logistic hub. 

Of course, there couldn't possibly be a connection between these two things, nor could there be a connection with the fact Ukrainian F-16 pilot training has been going on for a while now. I'm sure the Russian planes are just crashing themselves due to random mechanical failures.

Not sure it’s the F16s yet, more likely it was Patriot missiles and other AD. Also can’t help but chuckle that a certain poster want to “fake news” your post when Russia confirmed these losses and there’s even aftermath vids

[bilaps]

So anyway, in the past couple of days there have been several Russian jets which have mysteriously disappeared over Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/isw-russia-reducing-aviation-activity-123228541.html

Russian forces are decreasing aviation activity and use of glide bombs after Ukraine’s military shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber jets on Dec. 21-22, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Dec. 24.

The ISW cited Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat and military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets saying that Russian troops have limited their use of glide bombs and air strikes in southern Ukraine as well as manned aviation near occupied Crimea.

Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk announced on Dec. 22 that his troops had downed three Russian Su-34 supersonic fighter-bomber aircraft on the southern front. Three days later, the Air Force reported the downing of another Su-34 plane and a Su-30 fighter jet.

At the same time, an Australian E-7A Wedgetail electronic surveillance plane - a significant upgrade over the old E-3 AWACS that previously had been flying around the Ukrainian border - has begun flying around the Ukrainian border instead.

https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/news/2023-12-19/trusted-eyes-european-skies

Night has fallen at Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany, and the temperature plummets towards freezing, but the cold weather does not deter the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) maintenance crew hard at work on the tarmac.

Their efforts are to prepare the RAAF Wedgetail E-7A, a twin-engine airborne early warning and control aircraft, which has deployed to Europe under Operation Kudu.

The Wedgetail E-7A and a contingent of about 100 personnel have deployed to Germany with a mission profile of protecting humanitarian and military assistance bound for Ukraine.

Their flying missions have successfully commenced.

...

The aircraft has deployed at the request of the United States Air Force (USAF) to integrate with the effort of Australia’s partners, including the United States and NATO, to support the multilayered protection of an eastern European logistic hub. 

Of course, there couldn't possibly be a connection between these two things, nor could there be a connection with the fact Ukrainian F-16 pilot training has been going on for a while now. I'm sure the Russian planes are just crashing themselves due to random mechanical failures.

Not sure it’s the F16s yet, more likely it was Patriot missiles and other AD. Also can’t help but chuckle that a certain poster want to “fake news” your post when Russia confirmed these losses and there’s even aftermath vids

Beware of accusing someone on that front when you have just flat out told something that isn't truth. So, Russia didn't confirm ALL of those losses. Fighterbomber channel has said that there were losses on the 3 su-34, but there wasn't confirmation about all of 3, only of one. And the same channel has stated that the next 2 which Ukraine claimed yesterday are just false.

It was so called air defense ambush. Ukrainians knew the routes and were being succesfull, it has nothing to do with f16s. F16s are going to be effective only if Ukraine finds way to suppress Russian air defense positions which for now hasn't shown it's capable of.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It could well be Patriots or other air defense, but there were in fact reports that Ukraine would receive F-16s this year (and prior to Christmas).

https://www.twitter.com/shashj/status/1735679442981200371

Shashank Joshi (@shashj)
F-16s by xmas: "the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16 fighter jets...While the total number of the jets is undisclosed, the first deliveries are scheduled to take place before the end of this year" https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/setting_transatlantic_defence_up_for_success_0.pdf

If so, seems like a good Christmas present!

Russians were freaking out at the prospect, so no wonder bilaps wants to pretend that it is all fine:

https://www.twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1739041785324671353

АЗОВ South (@Azovsouth)
❗Z channels claim their Su-34 over the Black Sea was shot down by a NATO-Ukrainian F-16

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like Ukraine sent Putin and the Black Sea Fleet a Christmas gift
https://twitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1739456491684343981?s=12
https://twitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1739467946819309656?s=12

[jaichind]

https://newsunrolled.com/world/335066.html

"Rada Deputy: There Is No Money In Ukraine’s Budget To Mobilize 500 Thousand People"

[jaichind]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-christmas-december-25-snubs-russia/

"Ukraine snubs Russia, celebrates Christmas on Dec. 25 for first time"

They did it last year as well but this is the first time Christmas in Ukraine is being celebrated by law based on the Gregorian calendar as opposed to the Julian calendar.

Russia correctly points out that the last time Ukraine celebrated Christmas under the Gregorian calendar was during the 1941-1943 period of German occupation.

[jaichind]

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/97974/

"Russian budget deficit in 2023 to be 1.5% of GDP or a bit lower - Siluanov"

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia's budget deficit in 2023 will be a bit less than 1.5% of GDP which is a much smaller number than what many would expect earlier in the year.  The current Western financial firm's average estimate for the 2023 Russian budget deficit is around 2.6% of GDP.  In 2022 it ended up being -2.2% of GDP.

Since the Russian bond market is not as mature making it difficult to get external financing, historically Russia's budget needs to run a balance or even a slight surplus over the long run to ensure there is no resource gap in government spending.  The fact that Russia will need to run budget deficits of 3% or more for several years due to the war would be a problem in the medium run.  In 2023 it seems the RUB devaluation did the trick to keep the deficit under control even at the cost of inflation.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-war-ukraine-drained-labor-204316458.html

"Russia's war in Ukraine has drained it of labor — it lacks nearly 5 million workers this year, report says"

With the war economy continuing to ramp up, not unexpectedly, Russia has a labor shortage which comes hand in hand with rising inflation this year.  It seems to me the way out is to build additional production capacity in the various Central Asian republics to augment the production capacity of Russia's industry itself.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67801203

"Ukraine war: The frontline city Russia could seize again"

BBC seems to predict that Russia will capture Kupyansk.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia correctly points out that the last time Ukraine celebrated Christmas under the Gregorian calendar was during the 1941-1943 period of German occupation.

And back then, it was widely seen as an alien imposition - most Ukrainians as well as Russians have traditionally celebrated Christmas on the Julian calendar.

This is one of several things that the war has changed.

[bilaps]

Nobody's talking about new mobilization law in Ukraine. Checkpoints also already in place.

[jaichind]

I recall reading that $200 billion is in Belgium and $50 billion is in Switzerland.   

I think that by Belgium, they mean Brussels, i.e. the EU.

All in all, the amount frozen within the US and UK is around 60-70 Billion USD.



https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/06/06/could-seizing-russian-assets-help-rebuild-ukraine

I think most of that $200 billion in Belgium are in Euroclear whixh a major clearinghouse that settles and clears securities trades executed on European exchanges and is located in Brussels.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1739537273530564642?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpm...
Lol Russian MOD in cope mode