Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

"I've long argued that the Italian post-war growth miracle might be even a better blueprint for Ukraine than the celebrated German and Japanese miracles. And then the recent miracles of Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia - we have not yet started to call it "miracles", though we should - provide an actual blueprint."

Well. the war has to come to an end so enough of the refugees come back.  The current demographic setup is not conducive to rapid economic recovery


A study recently seems to show that the longer the war drags on the less likely the Ukraiain refugees will come back

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-05/more-ukrainians-who-fled-war-may-never-return-study-shows

"More Ukrainians Who Fled War May Never Return, Study Shows
As many as 3.3 million may stay abroad, according to CES
Impact on Ukraine could amount to 6.9% of future GDP per year"

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1701997802409152578

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1701997802409152578

If they can hit Sevastopol again, the orcs should really consider leaving. Ukraine has tremendous reach now. I’m just hoping the US pulls the trigger on ATACMS. That bridge’s days are numbered

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1701997802409152578

If they can hit Sevastopol again, the orcs should really consider leaving. Ukraine has tremendous reach now. I’m just hoping the US pulls the trigger on ATACMS. That bridge’s days are numbered

That naval base is why Crimea is so important to Russia.

If the Black Sea Fleet leaves, then Crimea is useless (to the Russians).

That is why I doubt that they would leave.

[bilaps]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

Finally people admitting what was Putin's talking point from the start, Russia is at war with US and NATO. Good to have this in writing.

[jaichind]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

To directly answer the question.   Chart from The Economist from June

The relative Russian effort from a % of GDP point of view is similar to USA effort in Korean War and Vietnam War

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

To directly answer the question.   Chart from The Economist from June

The relative Russian effort from a % of GDP point of view is similar to USA effort in Korean War and Vietnam War

The gap between the Soviet's 61% and Russia's 3%...just huge.
What is the equivalent figure for Ukraine?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

To directly answer the question.   Chart from The Economist from June

The relative Russian effort from a % of GDP point of view is similar to USA effort in Korean War and Vietnam War

The gap between the Soviet's 61% and Russia's 3%...just huge.
What is the equivalent figure for Ukraine?

The federal military budget in 2022 in Russia was, according to Russia, 3% (it is increasing this year). This does not include the state budgets, forced employee donations, or the "secret budget", which is about two-thirds the size of the official military budget.

Edit: It's still several orders of magnitude lower than Ukraine's. Like Russia, they are probably counting various expenditures as non-military even where these expenditures are made to help the war effort - e.g. bridge repair would presumably be prioritised in places where the war effort demands it, but I'll bet it doesn't count as part of the defence budget. The more existential a conflict, the more it tends to creep into other parts of the budget.

[jaichind]

The gap between the Soviet's 61% and Russia's 3%...just huge.
What is the equivalent figure for Ukraine?

I found

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-amends-2023-budget-channel-more-funds-defence-2023-03-21/

"In line with the proposed changes, total funds for the security and defense sector will reach 1.67 trillion hryvnias. That's 26.6% of GDP," Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said.

Clearly this is augmented by all forms of military aid from the collective West

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.htm

"Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say"

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

Russia's battle for war production continues to ramp up

Actually looking over the numbers in the article if true as of September 2023, the Russian industry is still very far from compensating its (tank) losses and (shell) consumptions. If so, Russian firepower will drop to 1/5-1/6 from its peak (June 2022) and become comparable to Ukr (also 2 mln/yr) by 2024.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1701687648069251103?s=20

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1702026413375619479?s=20

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1702002024018026916?s=20

[pppolitics]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

Finally people admitting what was Putin's talking point from the start, Russia is at war with US and NATO. Good to have this in writing.

LOL, you aren't very good at this trolling thing.

Russia can't even beat Ukraine which is getting hand-me-down weapons from NATO countries.

Had Russia started a war with NATO, Russia would be under NATO occupation right now.

[bilaps]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

Finally people admitting what was Putin's talking point from the start, Russia is at war with US and NATO. Good to have this in writing.

LOL, you aren't very good at this trolling thing.

Russia can't even beat Ukraine which is getting hand-me-down weapons from NATO countries.

Had Russia started a war with NATO, Russia would be under NATO occupation right now.

Had Russia started a war with NATO, Russia and the NATO would be destroyed right now, probably with entire planet cause it would've been a nuclear war.

As for hand-me down weapons from NATO countries only thing that will soon be left that wasn't given is gonna be boots on the ground of NATO active soldiers.

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sues-western-companies-failing-deliver-military-equipment-1826312

"Ukraine Sues Western Companies for Failing to Deliver on Military Equipment"

[jaichind]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

[Person Man]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

Should have been done 8 years ago.

[jaichind]

https://www.koamnewsnow.com/news/national-politics/pentagon-watchdog-establishes-new-team-in-ukraine-to-monitor-us-aid/article_0bfdab53-70d3-5f15-bfd1-79a88d9e4ab6.html

"Pentagon watchdog establishes new team in Ukraine to monitor US aid"

The first step to reducing corruption in Ukraine should be to change the "10% for the Big Guy" rule to "5% for the Big Guy" rule

[jaichind]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/will-west-abandon-ukraine

"Will the West Abandon Ukraine?
Kyiv Must Prepare for a Possible Change of Heart in America and Europe"

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1701997802409152578

If they can hit Sevastopol again, the orcs should really consider leaving. Ukraine has tremendous reach now. I’m just hoping the US pulls the trigger on ATACMS. That bridge’s days are numbered

That naval base is why Crimea is so important to Russia.

If the Black Sea Fleet leaves, then Crimea is useless (to the Russians).

That is why I doubt that they would leave.

Crimea also has huge emotional and historical value to Russia: the Russian Empire called itself the "Third Rome", and Crimea is the only part of Russia that was under Roman or Byzantine Rule for an extended period; thus it represents territorial continuity with Rome that they won't easily relinquish, and is part of the reason why the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was such a huge victory for Putin.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

Looking forward to the Glenn Greenwald drone strike

[pppolitics]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-confirms-more-than-100b-in-taxpayer-resources-spent-on-ukraine

"White House confirms more than $100B spent on Ukraine war"

Now tell me: How much has Russia spent on the Ukraine war (including as a percent of GDP)?

Finally people admitting what was Putin's talking point from the start, Russia is at war with US and NATO. Good to have this in writing.

LOL, you aren't very good at this trolling thing.

Russia can't even beat Ukraine which is getting hand-me-down weapons from NATO countries.

Had Russia started a war with NATO, Russia would be under NATO occupation right now.

Had Russia started a war with NATO, Russia and the NATO would be destroyed right now, probably with entire planet cause it would've been a nuclear war.

As for hand-me down weapons from NATO countries only thing that will soon be left that wasn't given is gonna be boots on the ground of NATO active soldiers.

As always, you are too gullible.

The most basic need of humans is self-preservation.

The Russian elites don't want to live the rest of their lives in a nuclear wasteland.

If Putin orders a nuclear strike, they will throw him to the wolves rather than allow him to continue with his order.

[pppolitics]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

What does the person's gender identity have to do with anything?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1702306634653921428

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1702022645074592042?s=20