Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

German ZDF poll

https://www.zdf.de/politik/politbarometer/230915-politbarometer-video-100.html

Ukraine must cede part of its territory to Russia in order to end the conflict.  Yes/No  41/43

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-16/flood-of-russian-wheat-halves-world-prices-from-wartime-high

"Flood of Russian Wheat Halves World Prices From Wartime High"



This is actually not the economic result Russia wants since it has an incentive to try to have a floor on wold wheat prices. Of course, this is a PR win for Russia since a bumper harvest and export surge that cut world wheat prices mitigates bad PR from ending the Black Seas grain deal.  In that sense, the end of the grain deal and the reduction of Ukraine's wheat exports also play into Russia's economic incentives.

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraines-next-battlefield-foe-bad-weather-212a5f94

"Ukraine’s Next Battlefield Foe: Bad Weather
Drenching rain and icy cold could impede Ukraine’s chance of exploiting an eventual breakthrough"



I suspect ammo supply would be a problem before the end of October anyway

Another Western defense official said that around the end of October, Ukraine will need to transition from attacking to holding ground, and more to protecting civilian infrastructure from Russian drones and missiles during winter

How dare the Russians hide behind trees.   They should fight in the open and not be a coward

The path forward remains fraught with danger, though. Russian war planes and drones drop bombs and locate Ukrainian troops for artillery attacks. Moscow's soldiers hide behind tree lines and blind bends in zigzagging trenches

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/ukraine-wie-angela-merkel-2008-den-nato-beitritt-verhinderte-spiegel-rekonstruktion-a-f8c94810-17c8-4533-be5c-7fa08cdd23fc

"The Day the War Began"

The blame game begins in Germany.  Spiegel now blames Merkal for the current situation saying that she should not have blocked USA's proposal for Ukraine to join NATO in 2008 when Russia most likely was too weak to stop it from taking place.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-already-spent-over-us-202239481.html

Forbes Ukraine calculated Russia's spending on the war over 1.5 years is $167.3 billion

- $51.3 billion to support the army
- $35.1 billion for military salaries
- $25.6 billion for payments to the families of fallen military personnel
- $21 billion for payments to the wounded
- $34.5 billion worth of Russian equipment destroyed in war

Some of this might be double counting.   Some of the $51.3 spent to support the army might be to produce new equipment to replace the ones which were destroyed which is already part of the $34.5 billion on destroyed equipment.  Also, a bunch of the $35.1 in salaries would have to be paid even without a war.

Anyway, this gives a Ukraine perspective on their calculation of the Russian fiscal cost of the war so far.

[lfromnj]

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-already-spent-over-us-202239481.html

Forbes Ukraine calculated Russia's spending on the war over 1.5 years is $167.3 billion

- $51.3 billion to support the army
- $35.1 billion for military salaries
- $25.6 billion for payments to the families of fallen military personnel
- $21 billion for payments to the wounded
- $34.5 billion worth of Russian equipment destroyed in war

Some of this might be double counting.   Some of the $51.3 spent to support the army might be to produce new equipment to replace the ones which were destroyed which is already part of the $34.5 billion on destroyed equipment.  Also, a bunch of the $35.1 in salaries would have to be paid even without a war.

Anyway, this gives a Ukraine perspective on their calculation of the Russian fiscal cost of the war so far.

Salaries for the war actually are very high and definitely an expense. Pretty sure they are making as much as their American cou terparts even without a PPP conversion. It is around 2500 to 3000 dollars a month depending on the rubles value. Previous contract soldiers were making around 500 before the war and conscripted  soldiers made around 25 a month which is almost nothing albeit it does add up to something after a while.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1702717155521831010?s=12
😗

Maybe he got a special delivery from Putin.

A video is now out purporting to show Kadyrov still alive and well. The plot thickens......

[UWS]

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/ukraine-wie-angela-merkel-2008-den-nato-beitritt-verhinderte-spiegel-rekonstruktion-a-f8c94810-17c8-4533-be5c-7fa08cdd23fc

"The Day the War Began"

The blame game begins in Germany.  Spiegel now blames Merkal for the current situation saying that she should not have blocked USA's proposal for Ukraine to join NATO in 2008 when Russia most likely was too weak to stop it from taking place.

As John McCain said when he ran for President of the United States in 2008, the delaying of the process of integrating Georgia and Ukraine into NATO has been seen by Russia as a greenlight to invade Georgia in 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_John_McCain#Georgia_and_South_Ossetia_War

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1703445628615807458?s=12

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1703463657978610084

I put this under RUMOR for now, but it could be a significant development.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1703525778959282542
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1703299036998926738

[Hindsight was 2020]

Prigozhin must be so confused with why Kadyrovl keeps appearing and disappearing out of hell

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-already-spent-over-us-202239481.html

Forbes Ukraine calculated Russia's spending on the war over 1.5 years is $167.3 billion

- $51.3 billion to support the army
- $35.1 billion for military salaries
- $25.6 billion for payments to the families of fallen military personnel
- $21 billion for payments to the wounded
- $34.5 billion worth of Russian equipment destroyed in war

Some of this might be double counting.   Some of the $51.3 spent to support the army might be to produce new equipment to replace the ones which were destroyed which is already part of the $34.5 billion on destroyed equipment.  Also, a bunch of the $35.1 in salaries would have to be paid even without a war.

Anyway, this gives a Ukraine perspective on their calculation of the Russian fiscal cost of the war so far.

Salaries for the war actually are very high and definitely an expense. Pretty sure they are making as much as their American cou terparts even without a PPP conversion. It is around 2500 to 3000 dollars a month depending on the rubles value. Previous contract soldiers were making around 500 before the war and conscripted  soldiers made around 25 a month which is almost nothing albeit it does add up to something after a while.

Has Ukraine been able to boost soldier salaries much during the war?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prigozhin must be so confused with why Kadyrovl keeps appearing and disappearing out of hell

It'll be difficult to take the seeming death of a Kremlin insider seriously at this rate, not when mind games played on us as part of what the Wagner "mutiny" are not that unusual as part of the typical playbook.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So that Kadyrov tiktok video was a deep fake, an impostor, or what?

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-election-fico-ukraine-russia-democracy-smer-e9e04e59361d927918ff9e8e6e830694

"As Slovakia’s trust in democracy fades, its election frontrunner campaigns against aid to Ukraine"

A populist former prime minister whose party is favored to win Slovakia’s early parliamentary election plans to reverse the country’s military and political support for neighboring Ukraine, in a direct challenge to the European Union and NATO, if he returns to power.

The likely winner of the upcoming Slovakia election, Fico, most likely will reverse policy on Ukraine aid if he comes into office.

[CumbrianLefty]

So that Kadyrov tiktok video was a deep fake, an impostor, or what?

Or simply recorded some time ago?

[pppolitics]

So that Kadyrov tiktok video was a deep fake, an impostor, or what?

It's probably a pre-recorded video.

[pppolitics]

There will be a whole generation of Ukrainians who grow up hating Russians with every fiber of their bodies.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1703691637916868714

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-will-sue-poland-hungary-and-slovakia-over-agricultural-bans/

"Ukraine will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over agricultural bans"

There is zero chance of any serious talk of Ukraine going into the EU unless this issue is resolved.  It seems to me the only way it can be resolved is of the wealthier EU economies just throw a bunch of cash on all the parties involved.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There will be a whole generation of Ukrainians who grow up hating Russians with every fiber of their bodies.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1703691637916868714

It almost can't be said enough: by trying to ensure Ukraine and Russia are closer, Putin is only setting them farther apart.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So that Kadyrov tiktok video was a deep fake, an impostor, or what?

It's probably a pre-recorded video.

He knew that there will be rumors about him being gravelly ill or dead and recorded that video just in case?

[pppolitics]

So that Kadyrov tiktok video was a deep fake, an impostor, or what?

It's probably a pre-recorded video.

He knew that there will be rumors about him being gravelly ill or dead and recorded that video just in case?

It seems to be common among dictators to pre-record videos to be released in such scenarios.

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-hunts-for-cash-as-fighting-drains-coffers-a6443e9c

"Ukraine Hunts for Cash as Fighting Drains Coffers"

The counteroffensive aimed at driving Russian occupiers from its southern region has bogged down. Faced with another year of fighting -- and a more than $40 billion budget deficit in 2024 -- finance officials in Kyiv are grasping for cash to keep the wartime economy running.

Sounds like it is time for another round of accounting errors at the Pentagon.  Of course Yelensy response would be "we spent the next three accounting errors already"

[jaichind]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-09-17/mcmanus-column-ukraine-zelensky-washington-visit-aid-congress

"Column: Zelensky is coming to Washington to ask for more Ukraine aid. Congress should say yes"

Ukraine's advance could still pick up speed before its ammunition runs out and winter sets in, Kofman added. Even so, it's clear that this war will continue well into 2024, and probably beyond.

But the stakes in this war also come down to realpolitik — or, if you'd like to stick to English, harsh reality. A Russian victory in Ukraine would be a disaster for the United States, one even more damaging than our chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The choice for the U.S., in short, boils down to abandoning Ukraine and handing Putin a victory, or giving Ukraine a chance to keep fighting until Putin agrees to negotiate a reasonable peace.

It seems the goal is no longer Ukraine victory but to prevent a Russian victory and get to a "reasonable peace"

[jaichind]

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-09-14/american-weapons-ukraine-theft-11374430.html

USA DoD media: "US weapons headed to Ukraine at risk of theft from lax security, IG says"