Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Oh yes very well

If this level of English proficiency is common among Ukrainians, then what is the problem with F-16 pilots?

By the way, the Ukrainians from Uzhgorod, in whose TRPG club I was a member, also spoke excellent English, and one also spoke excellent Hungarian.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/nicolas-sarkozy-emmanuel-macron-europe-russia-ukraine-we-need-the-russians-and-they-need-us/

"Sarkozy says Europe ‘needs’ Russia, slams Europe’s Ukraine policy"

[rc18]

Oh yes very well

If this level of English proficiency is common among Ukrainians, then what is the problem with F-16 pilots?

By the way, the Ukrainians from Uzhgorod, in whose TRPG club I was a member, also spoke excellent English, and one also spoke excellent Hungarian.

There is a big difference between conversational fluency and fluency in the highly technical jargon you will find in aviation manuals.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

There is a big difference between conversational fluency and fluency in the highly technical jargon you will find in aviation manuals.

In this case, it's also true for native speakers. However, for the Ukrainians I mentioned, the terms of many crunchy TRPG systems and the English slang associated with them were no problem.

[jaichind]

https://cnn.iprima.cz/kdo-je-schopen-znasilnit-dokaze-bojovat-i-za-svou-vlast-prohlasil-zeman-k-pripadu-z-plzne-409591

"Zeman on the Pilsen case: Whoever is capable of rape can fight for the homeland. He also admitted his mistake"

The former president of the Czech Republic Zeman condemned the Ukrainian 'refugees' who flooded the country because a bunch of them seem to be able-bodied males.  One of them was arrested for rape and Zeman indicated that if they can rape they can go back to fight the Russians.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/16/nato-official-dials-back-comment-on-ukraine-ceding-land-to-gain-membership-.html

"NATO official admits comments on Ukraine giving up territory to gain membership were a 'mistake'"

Stian Jenssen, director of the private office of the NATO secretary-general, pitched the idea of Ukraine giving up territory to Russia in return for the ability to join NATO. It seems he had to walk that back. 

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://cnn.iprima.cz/kdo-je-schopen-znasilnit-dokaze-bojovat-i-za-svou-vlast-prohlasil-zeman-k-pripadu-z-plzne-409591

"Zeman on the Pilsen case: Whoever is capable of rape can fight for the homeland. He also admitted his mistake"

The former president of the Czech Republic Zeman condemned the Ukrainian 'refugees' who flooded the country because a bunch of them seem to be able-bodied males.  One of them was arrested for rape and Zeman indicated that if they can rape they can go back to fight the Russians.

It's the usual far right narrative of a regular post-Marxist against any immigrants. Let's start with the fact that the Ukrainian authorities don't let men out of the country who can serve in the army.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://cnn.iprima.cz/kdo-je-schopen-znasilnit-dokaze-bojovat-i-za-svou-vlast-prohlasil-zeman-k-pripadu-z-plzne-409591

"Zeman on the Pilsen case: Whoever is capable of rape can fight for the homeland. He also admitted his mistake"

The former president of the Czech Republic Zeman condemned the Ukrainian 'refugees' who flooded the country because a bunch of them seem to be able-bodied males.  One of them was arrested for rape and Zeman indicated that if they can rape they can go back to fight the Russians.

It's the usual far right narrative of a regular post-Marxist against any immigrants. Let's start with the fact that the Ukrainian authorities don't let men out of the country who can serve in the army.

So I have no idea about the particulars of this case and the article is in Czech, but the exit ban isn't absolute: disabled men, men over 60, men with more than three children, single fathers, men with legal residency in other countries or valid student visas from before the war. Not to mention that pre-war Ukraine experienced huge out-migration and much of the workforce was already abroad.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The main thing is that as a percentage of the total number of Ukrainian migrants, this still does NOT allow saying: "Since there was one bastard among Ukrainians in the Czech Republic, let's expel all Ukrainians from the Czech Republic."

[CumbrianLefty]

Zeman is gonna Zeman, and a certain poster will post his burblings as if they mean something.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1692229612900647277

[Aurelius2]

The guy who runs the War_Mapper twitter account is taking a vacation for the next couple weeks. Who should I follow for territorial control updates until then?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The guy who runs the War_Mapper twitter account is taking a vacation for the next couple weeks. Who should I follow for territorial control updates until then?

Deepstate is your best bet.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/colbybadhwar/status/1692335708311089394?s=12
If one anonymous official is judging the counterattack as “anything short of Melitopol before summer end is a failure” then it looks like they didn’t learn lessons after “Kyiv will fall in 3 days”

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1691879502979170373

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1691879502979170373

It's a very strange way, putting all the chips on the first line of defense.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1691879502979170373

It's a very strange way, putting all the chips on the first line of defense.

Yeah, that's very unorthodox. Even some ancient armies kept their most experienced troops in reserve in case the new troops couldn't hold

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/colbybadhwar/status/1692335708311089394?s=12
If one anonymous official is judging the counterattack as “anything short of Melitopol before summer end is a failure” then it looks like they didn’t learn lessons after “Kyiv will fall in 3 days”

Melitopol falling would mean that the land bridge to Crimea would be cut, which would be a pretty decisive victory.

That seems unlikely unless there's a major breakthrough and widespread crumbling along the front.

Dialling it back to things that seem more plausible as things stand now (if not exactly imminent), what would be the impact in terms of Russian logistics of Ukraine gaining Tokmak or cutting the roads there?

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-military-has-new-transgender-spokesperson-1817334

"Ukraine Military Has a New Transgender Spokesperson"

I guess you will have to do stuff like this if you take money from the Biden administration

[CumbrianLefty]

No doubt you prefer Putin's take on trans matters.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-taking-heavy-casualties-counteroffensive-soldiers/story?id=102347740

"Ukraine taking heavy casualties 10 weeks into its counteroffensive"

There is mounting evidence that Ukraine has been taking heavy casualties in its counteroffensive, which began roughly ten weeks ago.

One of the men, a former U.S. soldier from Texas who goes by the callsign "Tango," said his unit of "dozens" of men took "85% casualties" and that two of their comrades were killed when the team was ambushed whilst advancing into Russian-occupied territory. Forty percent of the unit was so badly injured they were rendered "combat ineffective," he said.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/politics/ukraine-crimea-focus-biden-administration/index.html

"Ukraine’s recent focus on Crimea draws skepticism from corners of the Biden administration"

For some military and Biden administration officials, Ukrainian attacks on Crimea are at best a distraction, and at worst, a valuable waste of resources in a strategy that many analysts now believe has left Ukraine stretched too thin between multiple axes of attack.

True.  But I would argue that Ukraine needs morale boasters for the home front and hits on Crimea would provide relief on that front.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-17/brazil-binges-on-russian-fuel-like-never-before-as-moscow-seeks-new-markets?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner

"Brazil Binges on Russian Fuel Like Never Before"

This seems to have really started in early 2023 and is related to the G-7 price cap which forced Russia to shift around how and who they ship to.  Of course, Brazil gains by buying discounted energy when Brazil's energy exports are on a secular rise.

[jaichind]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/citi-buys-160-million-of-russian-aluminum-others-wont-touch

"Citi Buys $160 Million of Russian Aluminum Others Won’t Touch"

Ever since the start of the war there has been a de facto boycott by collective West financial firms on trading Russian metal.  It seems City has broken ranks and started to buy Russian Aluminum.  In the end it still has to be all about the money.

[jaichind]

PRC export surge to Russia continues and more than makes up for the loss of Russian imports from the collective West and powers the Russia war economy production surge.  Note that this chart should include Turkey and Caucasus economies to be complete for EU economies.  So the chart most likely underestimates de facto German export to Russia.