Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

Imagine being so degraded that the only card you have is to celebrate capturing a village with a few dozen inhabitants left.

You mean like celebrating not-entirely-taking Bakhmut (population 0 now) like it was 1945 Berlin?

You should hurry up and offload your rubles, comrade. Enjoy the economic depression your motherland is falling into 🖕

How old are you, 11?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1691432081270726656?s=12
Interesting going off the vid of shelling locations UA might be deeper inside Robotyne than I thought they were

[Cassius]

What is this obsession of some with finance during warfare ?

The things that matter in a war are men and guns, not financial statistics sheets.

When Russia was losing badly the only thing peddled by some pro-russians was useless statistics.

I consider it bad news for Ukraine when it's side does the same.

When the Ruble was strong last year, Putin's propagandists (also those on this board) claimed this was proof that Putin is a genius, and that western sanctions were impotent. If that's the case, what would a collapsing Ruble prove?

Most wars are ultimately won or lost on the home front, after all.

It matters a bit less for Russia due to their autocracy, but there is a certain point at which it the public will have had enough. Although that point is far distances from what optimists want to think.

But even for an autocracy, there's still a need to consider the opinions of the elite. Putin might not care about the opinion of Ivan on the street, but he needs to care about the opinions of the generals, the FSB, and the chef. And, as we saw two months ago, they have their own ways to remove him if they wanted to.

The Ruble is not falling because of sanctions, the Ruble is falling because it went to an unsustainably high value last year due to the unique conditions of extremely high export revenues and a collapse in demand for imports (so, if anything the sanctions actually helped to strengthen the Ruble in 2022). As the balance of payments reverted to a moral normal figure, so did the Ruble, which settled at about P80 to the Dollar in April, May and June (hardly a catastrophic collapse). Then, there was another loss of value at the end of June/early July due to jittery Russians moving their money out of the country because of the Prigozhin shenanigans, which has since been followed by another round of devaluation since the beginning of August, presumably due to an overheating economy.

None of this is indicative of economic collapse in any way. Wages continue to be paid, the shelves are not empty, and the state clearly remains capable of executing the war in Ukraine. We’ll see how the currency evolves in the next few months, but I think it’s quite likely that the Ruble will end up stabilising, albeit at a weaker value than pre-invasion, as it did after the troubles of 2014-15, when it stabilised at  roughly half the value it had before 2014. Note, that (worse) devaluation didn’t cause the collapse of Putin’s regime, so there’s no reason to get excited about this one either.

As for the FSB and the generals, the FSB (if we take FSB as a synecdoche for the siloviki as a whole)  occupy an extremely privileged position in Putin’s Russia, so the chances of them turning against him are slight - they’re heavily implicated in all of his policies and they have no better front man than Putin (although we should be careful not to over-egg the notion of Putin as a ‘front man’). With regards ‘the generals’, Putin is clearly tight with the Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of Defence and was able to remove Surovikin, a general apparently popular with the rank and file, from command with little difficulty (just as he was able with little difficulty to remove Teplinsky, a similarly popular general, for a few months before reinstating him), so where is the opposition going to come from within the army? There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking about Purim’s grip over Russia weakening, when, if anything, it has only strengthened since last year’s invasion, as opponents either emigrate or are arrested.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1691483650485891082?s=20
This must of hurt Suriyak to post lol

[2952-0-0]

The Ruble is not falling because of sanctions, the Ruble is falling because it went to an unsustainably high value last year due to the unique conditions of extremely high export revenues and a collapse in demand for imports (so, if anything the sanctions actually helped to strengthen the Ruble in 2022). As the balance of payments reverted to a moral normal figure, so did the Ruble, which settled at about P80 to the Dollar in April, May and June (hardly a catastrophic collapse). Then, there was another loss of value at the end of June/early July due to jittery Russians moving their money out of the country because of the Prigozhin shenanigans, which has since been followed by another round of devaluation since the beginning of August, presumably due to an overheating economy.

Russian propagandists did crow about how the strong Ruble was proof that Russia under Putin is resilient in the face of a hostile West. Again, what would a plunging Ruble mean, to that narrative?

None of this is indicative of economic collapse in any way. Wages continue to be paid, the shelves are not empty, and the state clearly remains capable of executing the war in Ukraine. We’ll see how the currency evolves in the next few months, but I think it’s quite likely that the Ruble will end up stabilising, albeit at a weaker value than pre-invasion, as it did after the troubles of 2014-15, when it stabilised at  roughly half the value it had before 2014. Note, that (worse) devaluation didn’t cause the collapse of Putin’s regime, so there’s no reason to get excited about this one either.

The reason the Ruble eventually stabilized at a lower equilibrium was because of two factors: 1) the West had lost interest in further sanctions against Russia, so there was no more downward pressure 2) Putin had, to his credit, put technocrats in charge of day-to-day economic policies. The first factor won't apply this time. The second factor might still be true, but I suspect it will become less effective in increasingly adverse circumstances.

Just today, Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate by 3.5% to 12%. That was to stave off the embarrassment of the 100 Ruble threshold. It's what the textbook says should be done, and it's true that Russia's economy is less dependent on credit than those in the first world, so such high interest rates might not be as disastrous. But, the fundamentals remain: the lack of credibility in the state's policies means that even loan shark interest rates cannot prevent this from spiralling out of control: just look at Argentina.

I'm not expecting a repeat of Petrograd in 1917. But, it will cause a steady degradation of state capacity: wages continue to be paid, but are cut in real terms. Bureaucrats and local officials find even more ways to supplement their incomes, reducing the Kremlin's effective control over the nation. There are fewer resources available for the unsexy but vital tasks like maintaining roads, supplying hospitals with drugs, investing in new technologies, etc etc. Oh, and making transfer payments to regional leaders, who have to keep their local elites happy.

If you ask me what will probably happen to Russia, my guess is that Putin remains in the Kremlin and holds the title of "President" as long as he's not a corpse. But, local barons working with oligarchs and men with guns increasingly defy orders from Moscow, and increasingly settle scores between each other. None of them bother to remove Putin from the Kremlin, because he's so weak that it doesn't matter, and because having Putin as titular President still gives them some authority.

As for the FSB and the generals, the FSB (if we take FSB as a synecdoche for the siloviki as a whole)  occupy an extremely privileged position in Putin’s Russia, so the chances of them turning against him are slight - they’re heavily implicated in all of his policies and they have no better front man than Putin (although we should be careful not to over-egg the notion of Putin as a ‘front man’). With regards ‘the generals’, Putin is clearly tight with the Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of Defence and was able to remove Surovikin, a general apparently popular with the rank and file, from command with little difficulty (just as he was able with little difficulty to remove Teplinsky, a similarly popular general, for a few months before reinstating him), so where is the opposition going to come from within the army? There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking about Purim’s grip over Russia weakening, when, if anything, it has only strengthened since last year’s invasion, as opponents either emigrate or are arrested.

What happened less than two months ago? Do you remember?

The fact that Putin has to placate the FSB and reshuffle the military means he has to listen to them to not fall from a window, no?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

RIP heroes. British aid workers were likely tortured and executed by Wagner thugs: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12404535/Hero-British-aid-workers-killed-Ukraine-probably-executed-tortured-Russia-Wagner-troops-relatives-say-reveal-chilling-autopsy-details.html

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking about Purim’s grip over Russia weakening, when, if anything, it has only strengthened since last year’s invasion, as opponents either emigrate or are arrested.

What do you mean by Purim?

[smoltchanov]

There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking about Purim’s grip over Russia weakening, when, if anything, it has only strengthened since last year’s invasion, as opponents either emigrate or are arrested.

What do you mean by Purim?

Probably - a new nickname for our "great and allmighty"))))))

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Probably - a new nickname for our "great and allmighty"))))))

Of all the Hebrew words, none fit Putin better than סוכה.

[Lord Halifax]

There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking about Purim’s grip over Russia weakening, when, if anything, it has only strengthened since last year’s invasion, as opponents either emigrate or are arrested.

What do you mean by Purim?

it's a Jewish holiday which commemorates the saving of the Jews from annihilation at the hands of Haman the Agagite, a courtier in the Achaemenid Empire (aka Persia).

"Haman was a proud and ambitious man who demanded that everyone bow down to him as a sign of respect. However, a Jewish man named Mordecai refused to bow down to him, which enraged Haman. Seeking revenge, Haman convinced the king to issue a decree that all Jews in the Persian empire be killed. Haman's plot was foiled by Queen Esther, who was also Jewish and had concealed her identity from the King. Esther revealed Haman's plan to Ahasuerus and pleaded with him to spare her people. The King was outraged at Haman's treachery and ordered that he be executed instead."

I'm sure someone can construct an interesting allegory relating to Ukraine. The Acaemenidian Empire is of course Russia, and Mordecai is probably Zelensky but what I wanna know is who'll play the role of Queen Esther?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking about Purim’s grip over Russia weakening, when, if anything, it has only strengthened since last year’s invasion, as opponents either emigrate or are arrested.

What do you mean by Purim?

it's a Jewish holiday which commemorates the saving of the Jews from annihilation at the hands of Haman the Agagite, a courtier in the Achaemenid Empire (aka Persia).

"Haman was a proud and ambitious man who demanded that everyone bow down to him as a sign of respect. However, a Jewish man named Mordecai refused to bow down to him, which enraged Haman. Seeking revenge, Haman convinced the king to issue a decree that all Jews in the Persian empire be killed. Haman's plot was foiled by Queen Esther, who was also Jewish and had concealed her identity from the King. Esther revealed Haman's plan to Ahasuerus and pleaded with him to spare her people. The King was outraged at Haman's treachery and ordered that he be executed instead."

I'm sure someone can construct an interesting allegory relating to Ukraine. The Acaemenidian Empire is of course Russia, and Mordecai is probably Zelensky but what I wanna know is who'll play the role of Queen Esther?

I doubt very much that Cassius used this word in its literal sense, or as an allegory that would connect with the literal meaning of the word. Maybe someday we'll be able to hear his own version.

[CumbrianLefty]

It may even be a good old fashioned typo.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1691763331311280553?s=12
Urozhaine liberation vid has dropped 🇺🇦

[Lord Halifax]

Maybe someday we'll be able to hear his own version.

our Epicurean friend may indeed return and enlighten us.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/InsiderNews/status/1691757327978836106

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1691804843982131420?s=12
No panic

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/InsiderNews/status/1691757327978836106

I kind of wonder why they didn’t do this before-band, or just configure old obsolete vehicles as drones and drive them remotely into minefields

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1691827608701342088?s=20

It appears as though Ukraine has liberated a town on the left bank of the Dnipro in Kherson region (the mainland, not the river island villages). Kozachi Laheri is the only town between Oleshky Sands (a weird little desert. Seriously, look it up, it’s honestly a fascinating geographical feature) and the river. It’s also very close to the critical M14 route connecting Oleshky, Hola Prystan, and the rest of the delta to Nova Kakhovka

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1691827608701342088?s=20

It appears as though Ukraine has liberated a town on the left bank of the Dnipro in Kherson region (the mainland, not the river island villages). Kozachi Laheri is the only town between Oleshky Sands (a weird little desert. Seriously, look it up, it’s honestly a fascinating geographical feature) and the river. It’s also very close to the critical M14 route connecting Oleshky, Hola Prystan, and the rest of the delta to Nova Kakhovka

Chuck Pfarrer is an awful source. I made a mistake of thinking he was good when the war broke out initially and got proven wrong pretty quickly. None of the good sources like Deepstate have confirmed this yet so best to wait on them

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/InsiderNews/status/1691757327978836106

I kind of wonder why they didn’t do this before-band, or just configure old obsolete vehicles as drones and drive them remotely into minefields

The trouble with driving vehicles into minefields is that unless they are completely destroyed by the mines (might be possible if they are light and filled with explosives?), they just become another obstacle after hitting a mine.

[Virginiá]

Chuck was getting roasted earlier for saying there were 2 pontoon bridges across the Dnieper lol

This guy just says things. No double-checking his sources, or even just thinking about whether it makes sense or not. Anything he can shove into a graphic and put out for hits as quickly as possible.

I didn't lose anything when I blocked him last year.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Chuck was getting roasted earlier for saying there were 2 pontoon bridges across the Dnieper lol

This guy just says things. No double-checking his sources, or even just thinking about whether it makes sense or not. Anything he can shove into a graphic and put out for hits as quickly as possible.

I didn't lose anything when I blocked him last year.

I actually joined a great discord covers the war (with a lot of actual Ukrainians in it and getting their first hand perspectives on the war and accounts on the ground have been really educational) and Chuck is like the big meme in it lol

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I actually joined a great discord covers the war (with a lot of actual Ukrainians in it and getting their first hand perspectives on the war and accounts on the ground have been really educational) and Chuck is like the meme in it lol

Do those Ukrainians speak English well enough?

[jaichind]

https://africa.businessinsider.com/markets/russia-got-richer-even-as-the-war-in-ukraine-raged-on-last-year-while-the-west-shed/684emep.amp

"Russia got richer even as the war in Ukraine raged on last year, while the West shed trillions of dollars of wealth"



I think the war did impact Russia's wealth negatively.  The difference was that Russia ran a fairly conservative monetary policy in 2020 while the collective West ran wild with a surge in liquidity and liquidity-driven wealth.   In 2022 that had to be unwound in the collective West while Russia pushed up liquidity once the initial shock of sanctions passed by mid to late 2022.  So the wealth shifts in this report have more with the timing of monetary policy cycles.  And the reality is that the liquidity and fiscal surges that Russia pursued in late 2022 are now causing inflation to become a problem in Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I actually joined a great discord covers the war (with a lot of actual Ukrainians in it and getting their first hand perspectives on the war and accounts on the ground have been really educational) and Chuck is like the meme in it lol

Do those Ukrainians speak English well enough?

Oh yes very well