Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Ukraine joined the European grid in March 2022:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1686885326768185344?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-port-grain-silo-ukraines-odesa-region-official-2023-08-02/

...The drone attacks destroyed buildings in the port of Izmail and halted ships as they prepared to arrive there to load with Ukrainian grain in defiance of a de-facto blockade Russia reimposed in mid-July.

...Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Russian attacks damaged almost 40,000 tons of grain which had been destined for countries in Africa as well as China and Israel.

It looks like the Kremlin guys are really mad and it is better for psychiatrists, not political scientists, to predict their actions.

[Pericles]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/riesen-sorge-in-berlin-deutsche-regierung-fuerchtet-putins-armee-plan-84898514.bild.html

"German government fears Putin's army plan"

Bild:  “Russia is ready to wage war in Ukraine for another two or three years, according to experts from the German government

Only 2-3 years? There is no question Ukraine can keep going for that time-the cause is just and they want it more.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1686951658280951809?s=12
I find it quite weird that a certain poster who loves to only post about Russia’s economic numbers never talks about this. Must be an oversight

[2952-0-0]

I was thinking of posting a meme on the day the Ruble falls below 100 to the $. It will have to wait, but it's coming.

[smoltchanov]

Well, i didn't change my opinion expressed few pages above: essentially a stalemate, but with Russia having more resources (especially manpower - the West may supply Ukraine with most of the weapons it needs, but will NOT send it's regular forces to fight into country). In such situation "Russian position" (using chess comparison) looks very slightly better. And yes, i believe that Russian (psychopatic) government can survive 2-3 more years of war, especially with total propaganda dominance within country. Part of the Russian weapons are obsolete? Of course, but they still can fire. The question is - whether Ukraine (with western support) is able to hold the line for these 2-3 years (especially - in human resource area)? If so - after these 2-3 years it will have a good chances for victory (though most likely - not complete). If not - ...... Right now it's a typical "war of exhaustion"....

[Woody]

(Potentially) another 3 Americans killed in Ukraine. Former service members.

https://twitter.com/HumBattIreland/status/1686830292072292352

[Woody]

The Lawrence family confirmed it.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1686702248628301824
https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1686698746803830785

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/us/politics/ukraine-troops-counteroffensive-training.html

"Ukrainian Troops Trained by the West Stumble in Battle"



The core issue is the NATO doctrine makes assumptions about the opponent that is not true for Russia.  I said this before but I would say that experienced Ukrainian officers have more to teach NATO  officers than the other way around.  Of course, the weapons NATO provided Ukraine are also aligned with NATO doctrine since those two are coupled. 

In the world of military hardware, just like almost everything else in this world, diversity is not a strength.

[Red Velvet]

A group of Pro-Ukraine Colombians went to Ukraine excited to help “kill Russians”. Now they are complaining about suffering xenophobic attacks and humiliation by the Ukrainians troops LMAO

“From our group, 25 Colombians died for them!”

https://twitter.com/Pragmatismo_/status/1686414947876589569
Video the Colombians are asking to spread. “Ukrainians are worse than Russians” says the Colombian in the middle of the fight. And these are people who went there prepared to die for the Ukrainians!

I honestly feel zero sympathy or sorority with these Colombians. There’s nothing more satisfying to me than Latino bootlickers of Europeans discovering how they are really seen by westerners.

It’s kinda like whenever poor people vote for the right not expecting to get screwed due to lack of class conscience.

Hmm so you downplay the bigotry of Russian’s government officials 2 pages ago to promote a Russia and non-western world solidarity fantasy while playing up this? I seriously don’t get your hatred of Ukraine which seems to be solely motivated by who it’s allies are

Hmmm I don’t remember saying anyone from here should go to Russia to fight Ukraine and neither do I see news about it, because that would be just as dumb lol

Abandoning your life to get involved in an European war that isn’t your business, regardless of side, is stupid as hell and it’s hilarious how shook they are to be treated with racism and xenophobia while in Eastern Europe.

I also understand that a lot of these are immature men who want to assert their masculinity by playing some real life version of Call of Duty. These weirdo gun-loving Fascists with small dicks always love to go to a random war because it’s a scenario where they’re free to kill like they wished they could do in their daily lives.

Which is another reason why I don’t have sympathy for the Colombians in the video. You get what you paid for.

[CumbrianLefty]

I find it quite weird that a certain poster who loves to only post about Russia’s economic numbers never talks about this. Must be an oversight

Tbf, there are always plenty of clickbaity (if not outright misleading) headlines to distract them.

[Badger]

A group of Pro-Ukraine Colombians went to Ukraine excited to help “kill Russians”. Now they are complaining about suffering xenophobic attacks and humiliation by the Ukrainians troops LMAO

“From our group, 25 Colombians died for them!”

https://twitter.com/Pragmatismo_/status/1686414947876589569
Video the Colombians are asking to spread. “Ukrainians are worse than Russians” says the Colombian in the middle of the fight. And these are people who went there prepared to die for the Ukrainians!

I honestly feel zero sympathy or sorority with these Colombians. There’s nothing more satisfying to me than Latino bootlickers of Europeans discovering how they are really seen by westerners.

It’s kinda like whenever poor people vote for the right not expecting to get screwed due to lack of class conscience.

Hmm so you downplay the bigotry of Russian’s government officials 2 pages ago to promote a Russia and non-western world solidarity fantasy while playing up this? I seriously don’t get your hatred of Ukraine which seems to be solely motivated by who it’s allies are

Hmmm I don’t remember saying anyone from here should go to Russia to fight Ukraine and neither do I see news about it, because that would be just as dumb lol

Abandoning your life to get involved in an European war that isn’t your business, regardless of side, is stupid as hell and it’s hilarious how shook they are to be treated with racism and xenophobia while in Eastern Europe.

I also understand that a lot of these are immature men who want to assert their masculinity by playing some real life version of Call of Duty. These weirdo gun-loving Fascists with small dicks always love to go to a random war because it’s a scenario where they’re free to kill like they wished they could do in their daily lives.

Which is another reason why I don’t have sympathy for the Colombians in the video. You get what you paid for.

" there's nothing more satisfying to me than Latino boot lickers for Europeans discovering how westerners really feel about them".

You are so close to a major self-revelation here. So close.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A group of Pro-Ukraine Colombians went to Ukraine excited to help “kill Russians”. Now they are complaining about suffering xenophobic attacks and humiliation by the Ukrainians troops LMAO

“From our group, 25 Colombians died for them!”

https://twitter.com/Pragmatismo_/status/1686414947876589569
Video the Colombians are asking to spread. “Ukrainians are worse than Russians” says the Colombian in the middle of the fight. And these are people who went there prepared to die for the Ukrainians!

I honestly feel zero sympathy or sorority with these Colombians. There’s nothing more satisfying to me than Latino bootlickers of Europeans discovering how they are really seen by westerners.

It’s kinda like whenever poor people vote for the right not expecting to get screwed due to lack of class conscience.

Hmm so you downplay the bigotry of Russian’s government officials 2 pages ago to promote a Russia and non-western world solidarity fantasy while playing up this? I seriously don’t get your hatred of Ukraine which seems to be solely motivated by who it’s allies are

Hmmm I don’t remember saying anyone from here should go to Russia to fight Ukraine and neither do I see news about it, because that would be just as dumb lol

Abandoning your life to get involved in an European war that isn’t your business, regardless of side, is stupid as hell and it’s hilarious how shook they are to be treated with racism and xenophobia while in Eastern Europe.

I also understand that a lot of these are immature men who want to assert their masculinity by playing some real life version of Call of Duty. These weirdo gun-loving Fascists with small dicks always love to go to a random war because it’s a scenario where they’re free to kill like they wished they could do in their daily lives.

Which is another reason why I don’t have sympathy for the Colombians in the video. You get what you paid for.

You constantly hype of the idea of their governments forming economic and political alliances with Russia. Also these guys wanting to go to Ukraine to defend a country being invaded by its neighbor that is invoking blood and soil rhetoric are the “fascist”?

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/world/europe/russia-war-economy.html

"A Spending Boom Fuels Russia’s Wartime Economy, Raising Bubble Fears"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-attacked-russias-economy-the-result-is-another-stalemate-99ec913b

"The West Attacked Russia’s Economy. The Result Is Another Stalemate."

With Russian economic numbers coming out showing likely solid economic growth for 2023 the collective West MSM had to switch their narrative away from economic collapse to economic overheating.

While I agree with the narrative I would say it is important to keep scope and scale into account.  For me, from a political-economic mobilization scale point of view, Ukraine is fighting the "Great Patriotic War" while Russia is fighting the "Vietnam War."  Russia's 2023 budget deficit will most likely end up at 3.3% of the GDP which I would would mean some level of greater inflation which we are already beginning to see but not on a scale greater than what happened to the USA in the late 1960s.



https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-budget-back-inside-the-2-of-gdp-target-after-revenues-surge-in-june-286488/

"Russia’s budget back inside the 2% of GDP target after revenues surge in June"



Russia's budget situation had a major surge in terms of surplus in June but I think the outlook is erratic given the clear Russian ramp-up of war production.  The  Russians claim that they can keep the deficit at 2% of GDP which I am skeptical of.  I am much more inclined to see it as being 3.3% which is where the current Western financial firm medium estimates are right now.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russia is fighting the "Vietnam War." 

By the way, it really is very similar to the Vietnam War, but not the one you thought about, but the one carried out by the PRC. Even the  Hoa people tactics are accurately cosplayed.

[jaichind]

Russia is fighting the "Vietnam War." 

By the way, it really is very similar to the Vietnam War, but not the one you thought about, but the one carried out by the PRC. Even the  Hoa people tactics are accurately cosplayed.

The 1979 conflict was much more limited lasting just a couple of weeks with the main PRC goal trying to get Vietnam to pull their troops out of their invasion of Kampuchea.  As a whole the PRC failed in their mission and the conflict highlighted significant gaps in the PLA which led to a bunch of military reforms in the PLA in the early 1980s.   In that sense, it is similar to the current conflict from the Russian point of view as the Russian military underperformance clearly shows military gaps which I am sure they are learning from and adjusting.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1687148568220504080?s=20
Interesting 🧐. Looks like UA is starting to slowly flank Robotyne from the north as well

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russia is fighting the "Vietnam War."

By the way, it really is very similar to the Vietnam War, but not the one you thought about, but the one carried out by the PRC. Even the  Hoa people tactics are accurately cosplayed.

The 1979 conflict was much more limited lasting just a couple of weeks with the main PRC goal trying to get Vietnam to pull their troops out of their invasion of Kampuchea.  As a whole the PRC failed in their mission and the conflict highlighted significant gaps in the PLA which led to a bunch of military reforms in the PLA in the early 1980s.   In that sense, it is similar to the current conflict from the Russian point of view as the Russian military underperformance clearly shows military gaps which I am sure they are learning from and adjusting.

Although the hot phase lasted only a month, this war was in the style that Putin usually shows — a low-intensity conflict with no apparent end, and gradually disappeared only by 1990. But even a short hot phase inflicted monstrous and war-criminal damage on the fraternal Vietnamese nation. Also, the Maoists used the Chinese diaspora in Vietnam for espionage, intelligence, reconnaissance, sabotage, nationalist riots, etc. Yes, the identification of the shortcomings of the attacking army can also be added to the collection of similarities. But Russian military reforms are not yet on the horizon. While they are only finally understand the importance of using drones in combat, and not just in attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

[jaichind]

Although the hot phase lasted only a month, this war was in the style that Putin usually shows — a low-intensity conflict with no apparent end, and gradually disappeared only by 1990. But even a short hot phase inflicted monstrous and war-criminal damage on the fraternal Vietnamese nation. Also, the Maoists used the Chinese diaspora in Vietnam for espionage, intelligence, reconnaissance, sabotage, nationalist riots, etc. Yes, the identification of the shortcomings of the attacking army can also be added to the collection of similarities. But Russian military reforms are not yet on the horizon. While they are only finally understand the importance of using drones in combat, and not just in attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

Another PRC goal in the conflict which is really a joint USA-PRC goal is to make the USSR look bad.  USSR-Vietnam signed a Treaty of Friendship in late 1978 for the expressed purpose to stop any PRC attack on Vietnam.  When the PRC attacked in 1979 (with implicit USA support) the USSR took no action other than verbal threats.  In that sense despite PLA's clear underperformance the higher-level PRC-USA goal of achieving.

[Storr]

"Russia's unemployment hits record low"

Diverting the work force, at least the male work force, to the killing fields, does have that impact yes. Clearing the prisons out as cannon fodder is just frosting on the cake.

"In October 2022, after the announcement of partial mobilization, the share of those [industrial enterprises] who reported a shortage of personnel was 33%. In January 2023, the deficit slightly decreased to 27%, but in April 35% of companies complained about the lack of workers."

"In July, 42% of industrial enterprises complained about the shortage of workers..."

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1687054376014053376?s=20

[2952-0-0]

Although the hot phase lasted only a month, this war was in the style that Putin usually shows — a low-intensity conflict with no apparent end, and gradually disappeared only by 1990. But even a short hot phase inflicted monstrous and war-criminal damage on the fraternal Vietnamese nation. Also, the Maoists used the Chinese diaspora in Vietnam for espionage, intelligence, reconnaissance, sabotage, nationalist riots, etc.

Actually, nope. The PRC had a hostile attitude towards the Chinese diaspora in Southeast Asia until the 1980s. They feared the diaspora was a potential reserve of counterrevolutionaries, especially since the diaspora in non-Communist countries retained their loyalty to the KMT in Taiwan. Those in China with relatives abroad were also denounced as counterrevolutionaries. In the Communist countries, the Chinese diaspora were especially targeted because they were a wealthy minority who could be even more easily denounced as spies, counterrevolutionaries, saboteurs, and so forth. The propaganda was so successful that it convinced an anti-communist Russian-speaker in Kazakhstan over 40 years later. The changing attitude came in the 80s because getting rich became glorious, and the diaspora was seen as a source of foreign capital.

Hence, Mao was hostile towards the Chinese diaspora as he feared it could threaten his power; whereas Putin seeks to use the Russian diaspora to further his power. The two cannot be more opposite.

[jaichind]

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/926783-amp.html

"Poland to close border for Ukrainian agricultural goods after Sept 15, some of frontline countries to join it – Polish Agriculture Ministry"

"However, we will firmly defend the interests of farmers. We want and help Ukraine, but the wellbeing of Polish farmers is our priority," he said.

[jaichind]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

[jaichind]

UK MoD now blames "weeds and shrubs" for slow Ukraine advance

[It’s so Joever]

UK MoD now blames "weeds and shrubs" for slow Ukraine advance

This is a valid analysis? Try harder.