Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1686147002906615808?s=20

"Overhead, no fewer than four NATO warplanes patrolled: a U.S. Navy P-8 patrol plane, a U.S. Army Challenger with a surface-scanning radar, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 drone and an E-3 early-warning plane from NATO. None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including Italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania."

https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1685586350144139264?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1686147002906615808?s=20
"Overhead, no fewer than four NATO warplanes patrolled: a U.S. Navy P-8 patrol plane, a U.S. Army Challenger with a surface-scanning radar, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 drone and an E-3 early-warning plane from NATO. None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including Italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania."

https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1685586350144139264?s=20

The planes stayed in Romanian waters, and the blockade is being broken at one Danube port only (considerably smaller than Odesa). It's a lot better than nothing, of course, but the reason it's open is that Russia can't enforce an active blockade with its ships anyway.

The threat of the grain blockade likely arises from its mine-laying capabilities. It could use these in the Danube (as it implicitly threatens to do around Odesa), but deploying a crapload of mines next to Romania might be something Russia is reluctant to do these days.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1686444021894234132

[pppolitics]

Very disappointing

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1686443559761625106

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1686486697666654208?s=20

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1686446567253753868?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1686486697666654208?s=20
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1686446567253753868?s=20

I tried to translate this song with Google on July 3rd:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=122043.msg9123027#msg9123027

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1686147002906615808?s=20
"Overhead, no fewer than four NATO warplanes patrolled: a U.S. Navy P-8 patrol plane, a U.S. Army Challenger with a surface-scanning radar, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 drone and an E-3 early-warning plane from NATO. None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including Italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania."

https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1685586350144139264?s=20

The planes stayed in Romanian waters, and the blockade is being broken at one Danube port only (considerably smaller than Odesa). It's a lot better than nothing, of course, but the reason it's open is that Russia can't enforce an active blockade with its ships anyway.

The threat of the grain blockade likely arises from its mine-laying capabilities. It could use these in the Danube (as it implicitly threatens to do around Odesa), but deploying a crapload of mines next to Romania might be something Russia is reluctant to do these days.

“Ukraine has exported 7.9 million metric tons of grain to China, or just under a quarter of the overall amount sent out under the Black Sea initiative.”

China Was Biggest Recipient of Ukrainian Grain Under the Deal
Farm Policy News
July 18, 2023

With its whims, the Kremlin has spoiled its Asian master, now they need to fix this.

Interestingly, the countries that sent the ships are quite pro-Russian: Greece, Turkey, Georgia and Israel. This is how it happens in Russia: they introduce a terrible terrorizing rule, then they themselves look for ways to dodge it.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/30/technology/russia-propaganda-video-games.html

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

"No breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s counteroffensive"

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

[bilaps]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

"No breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s counteroffensive"

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

Don't tell Hindsight 2020 that. He's spreading information from such neutral observes of conflict like Euromaidan press.

[CumbrianLefty]

US officials make cautious assessment shocker.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

"No breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s counteroffensive"

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

Don't tell Hindsight 2020 that. He's spreading information from such neutral observes of conflict like Euromaidan press.

I mean the article that jaichind is citing got basic facts about the the situation on the ground wrong (for example the article said UA deployed the western trained reserves but we know the brigades that are fighting in Robotyne/Staromlynivka/Bakhmut right now like the 47th, 116th, an the 118th and none of them are the western trained ones). Also the Euromaidan article on the UA location near Robotyne can be verified by shelling vids and geo maps

[Torie]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/01/no-breakthrough-yet-in-ukraines-counteroffensive-00109205

"No breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s counteroffensive"

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

This sentence from the article suggests that the first line of defense has been breached. One line of defense at a time.

“They are making mostly small, incremental gains” on all three axes, the official said. “They are still facing stiff Russian resistance — second and third layers of defenses.”

[Woody]

Intelligence: Russia has mobilized 60,000 men from the occupied territories (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhzhia, Kherson)

https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-russia-has-forcibly-mobilized-up-to-60-000-men-in-occupied-territories/

Since the beginning of 2022, Russia has forcibly mobilized from 55,000 to 60,000 men in the occupied territories of Ukraine, military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Cherniak said on July 30.

"The occupiers caught people on the street, they came to the few businesses that were still working and forcibly took people away - they simply dressed the people up and sent them to the front," Cherniak told Donbas Realii, a project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

"They (Russian forces) promised that the mobilized would be on the second or third line, but in reality, people ended up on the front line."

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1686417004293464064?s=20

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1686417009183973376?s=20

[TheReckoning]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1686417004293464064?s=20
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1686417009183973376?s=20

Essentially no change over the past 9 months. What’s been going on?

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/riesen-sorge-in-berlin-deutsche-regierung-fuerchtet-putins-armee-plan-84898514.bild.html

"German government fears Putin's army plan"

Bild:  “Russia is ready to wage war in Ukraine for another two or three years, according to experts from the German government

[Torie]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/riesen-sorge-in-berlin-deutsche-regierung-fuerchtet-putins-armee-plan-84898514.bild.html

"German government fears Putin's army plan"

Bild:  “Russia is ready to wage war in Ukraine for another two or three years, according to experts from the German government

"Ready" is different from "able," which is the point. Focus on the "able," and wage war until "able" becomes "unable," or there is a regime change. The longer Putin wages war the way he does, the less likely there will be any peace deal ever that splits the pie, absent a regime change. I hope Biden understands that. He needs to ramp this up, and get a change of atmosphere in the next year, not only for Ukraine, but for himself, if prudently possible.

[Red Velvet]

A group of Pro-Ukraine Colombians went to Ukraine excited to help “kill Russians”. Now they are complaining about suffering xenophobic attacks and humiliation by the Ukrainians troops LMAO

“From our group, 25 Colombians died for them!”

https://twitter.com/Pragmatismo_/status/1686414947876589569
Video the Colombians are asking to spread. “Ukrainians are worse than Russians” says the Colombian in the middle of the fight. And these are people who went there prepared to die for the Ukrainians!

I honestly feel zero sympathy or sorority with these Colombians. There’s nothing more satisfying to me than Latino bootlickers of Europeans discovering how they are really seen by westerners.

It’s kinda like whenever poor people vote for the right not expecting to get screwed due to lack of class conscience.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/scale-amputations-ukraine-reaches-wwi-205501504.html

"Scale of amputations in Ukraine reaches WWI level – WSJ"

Since the beginning of the Russian military aggression, the number of Ukrainians left without one or more limbs has reached 20-50,000, which is comparable to the scale of amputations during the First World War.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A group of Pro-Ukraine Colombians went to Ukraine excited to help “kill Russians”. Now they are complaining about suffering xenophobic attacks and humiliation by the Ukrainians troops LMAO

“From our group, 25 Colombians died for them!”

https://twitter.com/Pragmatismo_/status/1686414947876589569
Video the Colombians are asking to spread. “Ukrainians are worse than Russians” says the Colombian in the middle of the fight. And these are people who went there prepared to die for the Ukrainians!

I honestly feel zero sympathy or sorority with these Colombians. There’s nothing more satisfying to me than Latino bootlickers of Europeans discovering how they are really seen by westerners.

It’s kinda like whenever poor people vote for the right not expecting to get screwed due to lack of class conscience.

Hmm so you downplay the bigotry of Russian’s government officials 2 pages ago to promote a Russia and non-western world solidarity fantasy while playing up this? I seriously don’t get your hatred of Ukraine which seems to be solely motivated by who it’s allies are

[jaichind]

https://tass.com/russia/1655969

"Russia's GDP rises by 1.4% in 1H 2023 — Economic Development Ministry"

In the Q2 of 2023, Russia's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year,

Wow.  2023 Q2 GDP YoY growth came in at 4.6%.  This is much higher than expected.  Yeah, if that is the 2023 Q2 number then Putin is right, 2023 total GDP growth will come in around 2.0% or even a bit more.  That would pretty much wipe out the 2022 GDP contractor and put 2023 Russia's GDP equal to 2021 Russia's GDP.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/double-digit-growth-real-wages-retail-sales-russias-unemployment-hits-record-low-2023-08-02/

"Double-digit growth in real wages, retail sales as Russia's unemployment hits record low"

It seems Russia's real wages rose 13.3% in May YoY.  This number of course is deceptively strong since April-May 2022 was most likely the trough for Russia's economy right after the sanctions hit.

The Economic Development Ministry forecasts the real wage will grow 5.4% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025

[Torie]

"Russia's unemployment hits record low"

Diverting the work force, at least the male work force, to the killing fields, does have that impact yes. Clearing the prisons out as cannon fodder is just frosting on the cake.

[pppolitics]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/riesen-sorge-in-berlin-deutsche-regierung-fuerchtet-putins-armee-plan-84898514.bild.html

"German government fears Putin's army plan"

Bild:  “Russia is ready to wage war in Ukraine for another two or three years, according to experts from the German government

Russia might not even survive that long.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1686760721994964992?s=12
These vid are always good reminders of the hard fighting that UA is doing on the ground 😕