Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Regardless if this war eventually ends in a stalemate or not, Ukraine is going to have the most protected airspace in the world.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1664330646171287553

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

Now this is interesting. It would be nice to finally rid the world of the Russian-occupied territory known as Transnistria once and for all.

Tbf, Copesight said just about the same thing half a year ago, look where we are now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Said what? I’m positing that the Moldovan president is stating Ukraine can intervene in Transnistria with their blessing. I’m not declaring an operation in imminent or anything Mr “Guys Zaluzhnyi is totally dead and that video of him is prerecorded”

[oldtimer]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%

2022 GDP and CPI are mostly locked in.  There might be a chance 2022 Eurozone GDP might be adjusted downward but that is it.

Some recent non-GDP economic figures for PRC came in weaker than expected.  I expect both the USA and PRC 2023 GDP numbers to fall in the future.   Expectations of Russia continued to brighten at a fast rate and UK's 2023 prospects also improved but not as much.  Everyone else is status quo

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from April 2023 calculation)
Russia      -6.7% (+0.7%)
Eurozone  -2.5% (same)
USA         -3.1% (same)
UK           -2.8% (+0.3%)
PRC          -1.8% (same)
Japan       -2.5% (same)

The total economic impact on Russia in 2022-2023 continues to improve, especially relative to the collective West.  PRC is the main marginal relative economic winner of this conflict once you take into account their own unforced error of continuing their COVID lockdowns in 2022.

That's pathetic, America recorded 15% GDP annual growth rates during WW2.

Russian production hasn't increased a zip 18 months into this Great War.

[jaichind]

That's pathetic, America recorded 15% GDP annual growth rates during WW2.

Russian production hasn't increased a zip 18 months into this Great War.

To be fair, to Russia, this war is more like the Korean or Vietnam War for the USA.  Ukraine's military spending as a % of GDP once you also add in all sorts of military aid is more like the USSR's Great Patriotic War in terms of scale.  So Russia is fighting this war like a large-scale intervention war while Ukraine is fighting this war as a war for survival.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1663817841441918977?s=20

IMF has Ukraine's GDP growth in 2023 at 2%. That roughly matches my weight average for various financial firms' research produces.   This estimate has gone down over the last few months but that has more to do with the fact that the fall in Ukraine's 2022 GDP was less than feared  (-29.1% vs something like -32% to -34%).

The number of reports that have Ukraine GDP growth estimates does not appear very often but what I have for 2023 are

July 2022:  +8.8%
Aug 2022:  +6.2%
Oct 2022:  +5.0%
Dec 2022:  +2.8%
Mar 2022:  +2.0%
May 2022:  +1.8%

So right now my average is around +1.8% which is pretty close to IMF.   The fall in estimates, as I have mentioned, seems more about the base effects of 2022 coming in better than expected.  Still, +1.8% and +2.0% is not encouraging after a -29.1% fall.  I guess with Ukraine on total war footing there cannot be any real recovery until the war is over at least in functional terms.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Denazification in action:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664079800917536776?s=20

Well, Red Velvet wants us to remember that all countries have their differences, and shunning a nation for killing children is wrong because Iraq/Imperialism.

Nations should strive to be more like the true moral compass of Brazil, famous for its lack of income and housing inequality and refusal to elect far-right virulent homophobes to high offices.

Poverty and Inequality have nothing to do with morals and this notion really says more about you and most people in here who agree with this tbh.

If anything, inequality is a consequence of the dynamics from colonial white supremacy. The white elites that benefit from this necessarily come from Europe and every place where white people exist, racism necessarily will too because we’re born into a racist system that inevitably makes us racists just by growing in it. Which makes anti-racism being about learning to grow above the environment we’re in. This is basic stuff people like me learned in school.

The difference between Brazil and the West is that the discussion about racism in Europe is basically non-existent and conveniently put aside under the rug, convincing themselves this isn’t a problem for them because they don’t talk about it. We all saw the treatment Vini Jr. got in Europe while still victim-blamed for the racist attacks on him and it’s not just him, it’s a recurring event.

While USA has the discussions but has too much of its identity stuck in the notions of “free speech” that it allows/validates these white supremacists to get away with everything. On this specific matter, Brazil is indeed way more advanced than most places. Which isn’t to say things are perfect because they never are anywhere.

Mentioning this because you’re bringing up the “Brazil being the moral compass” comment from a different thread, which was about approach to and legislation on racism and homophobia.

Derailing this thread into crass race reductionism is a new low.

[oldtimer]

That's pathetic, America recorded 15% GDP annual growth rates during WW2.

Russian production hasn't increased a zip 18 months into this Great War.

To be fair, to Russia, this war is more like the Korean or Vietnam War for the USA.  Ukraine's military spending as a % of GDP once you also add in all sorts of military aid is more like the USSR's Great Patriotic War in terms of scale.  So Russia is fighting this war like a large-scale intervention war while Ukraine is fighting this war as a war for survival.

And the Vietnam War went so well for America, right ?

If you are fighting a War give it all you have or surrender on day 1, it's the one thing you can't compromise.

Look at your own chart, those who gave it all that they had usually won, those who didn't usually lost.

War is too serious for inertia.

[Woody]

How's the Bakhmut flanks

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1664275063103950848?s=12
😗

Speaking of Moldova...

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1664355936528662528?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1664319950683619335?s=20

[jaichind]

Today is June 1st which means the Ukrainian Spring Offensive is officially late.

I suspect both Russia and Ukraine high commands are stuck in a similar early 1943 Hitler vs Manstein forehand vs backhand debate in exactly the same area where fighting is taking place today (Eastern Ukraine.)  Hitler's forehand approach is "preemptive attack using the element of surprise to disrupt the upcoming enemy offensive and gain superior position for future defense and possible future offensive" where Manstein's backhand approach is "allow the enemy to attack first and using defense in depth to slow down the enemy while inflicting losses on the enemy.  Then concentrate reserves on the flank of the enemy offensive to counterattack to cut off and destroy the enemy forces." 

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mccaffreyr3/status/1664322268888203264?s=20

[Storr]

something go boom in Kursk:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1664391675089768450?s=20

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1664390438814466049?s=20

[jaichind]

Unless it is some sort of PSYOP it is a really bad idea for the collective West to publicly or privately pressure Ukraine on achieving success in this upcoming offensive.  It is stating the obvious but doing so forces Ukraine into violating a standard Sun Tze dictum "勝兵先勝而後求戰，敗兵先戰而後求勝" or "A winning army achieves victory then fights.  A losing army fights to achieve victory."

[Red Velvet]

Denazification in action:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664079800917536776?s=20

Well, Red Velvet wants us to remember that all countries have their differences, and shunning a nation for killing children is wrong because Iraq/Imperialism.

Nations should strive to be more like the true moral compass of Brazil, famous for its lack of income and housing inequality and refusal to elect far-right virulent homophobes to high offices.

Poverty and Inequality have nothing to do with morals and this notion really says more about you and most people in here who agree with this tbh.

If anything, inequality is a consequence of the dynamics from colonial white supremacy. The white elites that benefit from this necessarily come from Europe and every place where white people exist, racism necessarily will too because we’re born into a racist system that inevitably makes us racists just by growing in it. Which makes anti-racism being about learning to grow above the environment we’re in. This is basic stuff people like me learned in school.

The difference between Brazil and the West is that the discussion about racism in Europe is basically non-existent and conveniently put aside under the rug, convincing themselves this isn’t a problem for them because they don’t talk about it. We all saw the treatment Vini Jr. got in Europe while still victim-blamed for the racist attacks on him and it’s not just him, it’s a recurring event.

While USA has the discussions but has too much of its identity stuck in the notions of “free speech” that it allows/validates these white supremacists to get away with everything. On this specific matter, Brazil is indeed way more advanced than most places. Which isn’t to say things are perfect because they never are anywhere.

Mentioning this because you’re bringing up the “Brazil being the moral compass” comment from a different thread, which was about approach to and legislation on racism and homophobia.

Derailing this thread into crass race reductionism is a new low.

You really don’t want to enter a class-based analysis of global divisions because the picture is even less friendly than a racial analysis. The Global South IS the working class of geopolitics.

The only narrative the West has is the one about liberal democracy and that has already been compromised by a wide mix of reasons:

A) Rise of far-right authoritarians compromising the credibility of unquestionable guarantors of democratic global order.

B) Lack of interest about more engagement with democratic South nations while relationship with dictatorship are maintained depending on how strategic they’re perceived.

C) Holding of a fake moral superiority over poorer countries that they don’t even follow themselves or hold for richer countries. Lots of “warnings” on how China is evil and dangerous because ~not democratic~ and yet business between US-China is absurdly high!

What exactly is the “dream” that you offer nowadays? Because in XX century people associated the West with more opportunity but it’s increasingly clear nowadays that “opportunity” depends on who you are and where you come from.

Attempts to be part of the “Western” alliance were made by multiple places with no success, because the exact point of it is to keep the same limited club that concentrates power between only a few.

The growing impression is that it doesn’t really matter what the ideology is, the North will always try to find an excuse to alienate and exclude the South regardless of what their government is. And that happens because it’s precisely the growth of more places to share power with instead that is threatening, NOT the government ideologies themselves. And the skin color of most people on these places are a big part of this instinctive fear, yeah.

It’s just an unwinnable situation for you because of the drawn circumstances. The emergence of the collective South is just inevitable for multiple reasons so it’s pointless to try to hold to past century notions under hopes of a new Cold War that pushes a bipolar logic instead of a multipolar one. At most it can be postponed, but not stopped because it’s billions of people with increasing access to mediums of communication and who want to participate and have a voice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Denazification in action:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664079800917536776?s=20

Well, Red Velvet wants us to remember that all countries have their differences, and shunning a nation for killing children is wrong because Iraq/Imperialism.

Nations should strive to be more like the true moral compass of Brazil, famous for its lack of income and housing inequality and refusal to elect far-right virulent homophobes to high offices.

Poverty and Inequality have nothing to do with morals and this notion really says more about you and most people in here who agree with this tbh.

If anything, inequality is a consequence of the dynamics from colonial white supremacy. The white elites that benefit from this necessarily come from Europe and every place where white people exist, racism necessarily will too because we’re born into a racist system that inevitably makes us racists just by growing in it. Which makes anti-racism being about learning to grow above the environment we’re in. This is basic stuff people like me learned in school.

The difference between Brazil and the West is that the discussion about racism in Europe is basically non-existent and conveniently put aside under the rug, convincing themselves this isn’t a problem for them because they don’t talk about it. We all saw the treatment Vini Jr. got in Europe while still victim-blamed for the racist attacks on him and it’s not just him, it’s a recurring event.

While USA has the discussions but has too much of its identity stuck in the notions of “free speech” that it allows/validates these white supremacists to get away with everything. On this specific matter, Brazil is indeed way more advanced than most places. Which isn’t to say things are perfect because they never are anywhere.

Mentioning this because you’re bringing up the “Brazil being the moral compass” comment from a different thread, which was about approach to and legislation on racism and homophobia.

Derailing this thread into crass race reductionism is a new low.

You really don’t want to enter a class-based analysis of global divisions because the picture is even less friendly than a racial analysis. The Global South IS the working class of geopolitics.

The only narrative the West has is the one about liberal democracy and that has already been compromised by a wide mix of reasons:

A) Rise of far-right authoritarians compromising the credibility of unquestionable guarantors of democratic global order.

B) Lack of interest about more engagement with democratic South nations while relationship with dictatorship are maintained depending on how strategic they’re perceived.

C) Holding of a fake moral superiority over poorer countries that they don’t even follow themselves or hold for richer countries. Lots of “warnings” on how China is evil and dangerous because ~not democratic~ and yet business between US-China is absurdly high!

What exactly is the “dream” that you offer nowadays? Because in XX century people associated the West with more opportunity but it’s increasingly clear nowadays that “opportunity” depends on who you are and where you come from.

Attempts to be part of the “Western” alliance were made by multiple places with no success, because the exact point of it is to keep the same limited club that concentrates power between only a few.

The growing impression is that it doesn’t really matter what the ideology is, the North will always try to find an excuse to alienate and exclude the South regardless of what their government is. And that happens because it’s precisely the growth of more places to share power with instead that is threatening, NOT the government ideologies themselves. And the skin color of most people on these places are a big part of this instinctive fear, yeah.

It’s just an unwinnable situation for you because of the drawn circumstances. The emergence of the collective South is just inevitable for multiple reasons so it’s pointless to try to hold to past century notions under hopes of a new Cold War that pushes a bipolar logic instead of a multipolar one. At most it can be postponed, but not stopped because it’s billions of people with increasing access to mediums of communication and who want to participate and have a voice.

How much do you think the Russo-Ukrainian War has sped up this process that you speak of?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1664385996178194432

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

I have to imagine these words won't be favorably received in Ukrainian-language media...

[AndyHogan14]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

I have to imagine these words won't be favorably received in Ukrainian-language media...

I don't like it either, however, if the counteroffensive does end up failing then there may be no choice. If they are unable to make a sizable dent in the occupied territories then it seems unlikely that they will ever be able to without a collapse of the current fascist government in Moscow. It is not going to get any easier as time goes on and the occupiers become more and more entrenched.

[Red Velvet]

Denazification in action:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1664079800917536776?s=20

Well, Red Velvet wants us to remember that all countries have their differences, and shunning a nation for killing children is wrong because Iraq/Imperialism.

Nations should strive to be more like the true moral compass of Brazil, famous for its lack of income and housing inequality and refusal to elect far-right virulent homophobes to high offices.

Poverty and Inequality have nothing to do with morals and this notion really says more about you and most people in here who agree with this tbh.

If anything, inequality is a consequence of the dynamics from colonial white supremacy. The white elites that benefit from this necessarily come from Europe and every place where white people exist, racism necessarily will too because we’re born into a racist system that inevitably makes us racists just by growing in it. Which makes anti-racism being about learning to grow above the environment we’re in. This is basic stuff people like me learned in school.

The difference between Brazil and the West is that the discussion about racism in Europe is basically non-existent and conveniently put aside under the rug, convincing themselves this isn’t a problem for them because they don’t talk about it. We all saw the treatment Vini Jr. got in Europe while still victim-blamed for the racist attacks on him and it’s not just him, it’s a recurring event.

While USA has the discussions but has too much of its identity stuck in the notions of “free speech” that it allows/validates these white supremacists to get away with everything. On this specific matter, Brazil is indeed way more advanced than most places. Which isn’t to say things are perfect because they never are anywhere.

Mentioning this because you’re bringing up the “Brazil being the moral compass” comment from a different thread, which was about approach to and legislation on racism and homophobia.

Derailing this thread into crass race reductionism is a new low.

You really don’t want to enter a class-based analysis of global divisions because the picture is even less friendly than a racial analysis. The Global South IS the working class of geopolitics.

The only narrative the West has is the one about liberal democracy and that has already been compromised by a wide mix of reasons:

A) Rise of far-right authoritarians compromising the credibility of unquestionable guarantors of democratic global order.

B) Lack of interest about more engagement with democratic South nations while relationship with dictatorship are maintained depending on how strategic they’re perceived.

C) Holding of a fake moral superiority over poorer countries that they don’t even follow themselves or hold for richer countries. Lots of “warnings” on how China is evil and dangerous because ~not democratic~ and yet business between US-China is absurdly high!

What exactly is the “dream” that you offer nowadays? Because in XX century people associated the West with more opportunity but it’s increasingly clear nowadays that “opportunity” depends on who you are and where you come from.

Attempts to be part of the “Western” alliance were made by multiple places with no success, because the exact point of it is to keep the same limited club that concentrates power between only a few.

The growing impression is that it doesn’t really matter what the ideology is, the North will always try to find an excuse to alienate and exclude the South regardless of what their government is. And that happens because it’s precisely the growth of more places to share power with instead that is threatening, NOT the government ideologies themselves. And the skin color of most people on these places are a big part of this instinctive fear, yeah.

It’s just an unwinnable situation for you because of the drawn circumstances. The emergence of the collective South is just inevitable for multiple reasons so it’s pointless to try to hold to past century notions under hopes of a new Cold War that pushes a bipolar logic instead of a multipolar one. At most it can be postponed, but not stopped because it’s billions of people with increasing access to mediums of communication and who want to participate and have a voice.

How much do you think the Russo-Ukrainian War has sped up this process that you speak of?

A lot, because many people see the excessive western concern and pressure about Ukraine related to the fact it’s an European country.

And it triggers anger on a more instinctive level about how others places don’t get this treatment when they aren’t as White European.

It’s like, people know Russia is wrong for invading but they don’t have much sympathy for Ukraine or the West either. It’s like being tired of having to always care about Europe in an one-sided way.

But besides this emotional aspect, there’s also pragmatism in knowing that as non-western places, by endorsing Russian economic punishment they would be validating precedents that could be used against them depending of the mood of western powers.

Which is where the newfound energy about stuff like stimulating South relations and finding a way to neutralize the US dollar comes from. Stuff like BRICS was practically forgotten during Trump but you see it way way more popular like I’ve never seen before these days after the start of Ukraine War.

And it’s not because of Russian articulation at all. I think sending aid to Ukraine would’ve produced much less of a negative backlash from the South than the sanctions tbh. News like freezing Russian reserves and possibly just giving it to Ukraine scared a lot of people about their own money being stolen like that and is IMO what mainly energized the thinking it’s extremely necessary to drop the dollar as a matter of national security.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

I have to imagine these words won't be favorably received in Ukrainian-language media...

I don't like it either, however, if the counteroffensive does end up failing then there may be no choice. If they are unable to make a sizable dent in the occupied territories then it seems unlikely that they will ever be able to without a collapse of the current fascist government in Moscow. It is not going to get any easier as time goes on and the occupiers become more and more entrenched.

I agree some kind of negotiations is inevitable or ought to be if Ukraine's counteroffensive fails. But regardless, we should continue to arm Ukraine and firm it up militarily. It's good for holding back Russia, it's good for employment back home, and while assistance to Kiev is something that absolutely should be subject to the "does it serve American interests" test, the calculation remains very strongly in favor of continuing to give significant assistance, though it will for sure have to decline somewhat probably...

[NOVA Green]

This explains why they attacked Shebekino, as opposed to any other Russian border town:

Google translation:
"In Shchebekino, the "Monokrystal" plant was destroyed by the forces of the Red Army
One of the largest producers of synthetic sapphires used in electronics and optics."

https://twitter.com/ebany_patriot/status/1664227001962582016?s=20
[/quote]

It should also be noted that according to Russian Mil-bloggers there were Russian army refuelers at the factory.

Hence the thick black smoke from one of the videos posted which would indicate that diesel fuel storage units or a tanker fleet was located at the facility.

[NOVA Green]

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-opposes-putin-arrest-needed-224200966.html

"Macron opposes Putin’s arrest if he is needed for ‘negotiations’"

He added that Russia "has lost any legitimacy," but stated that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails to achieve its military objectives, it would be necessary to "evaluate the nature of future European support for Ukraine."

Macron seems to imply that if the upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive does not succeeds then it is time to wind down the war, as least from EU aid to Ukraine point of view.

I have to imagine these words won't be favorably received in Ukrainian-language media...

Still difficult to bite the hand that feeds, especially only a couple weeks after Macron signed off on training and provisioning several Ukrainian battallions with armored vehicles, including the AMX-10RC light tank as well as additional materials to boost Ukraine's air defense.

I suspect that once again Macron is just being Macron and that in reality he is speaking less for Europe and more for his perspective of Europe, with France and himself as the leader naturally of both...

This guy has been blowing smoke out his backside ever since elected and couldn't even get his controversial increase in French retirement age done without resorting to quasi authoritarian measures.