Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Stuff like this reinforces my belief that Russia doesn't want to negotiate.

I can't speak for other people, but that fact Russia keeps striking civilian buildings makes me angry and feel like the US government should give the Ukrainians whatever they want. F-16s? I don't care that they are expensive to operate compared to Soviet fighters and can only operate from a few airbases in Ukraine. Give them more money to operate them and build/upgrade airbases so they can operate F-16s from them.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1651858221617774593?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1651842613245517824?s=20

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1651849759328534528?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We're looking at a likely schism in the lands of the former Kievan Rus. Russia and Ukraine are interested in maximalistic goals and they both have interest in keeping this up as long as they psychically can.

Considering the region only, the ideal post-war scenario might be Russia losing Crimea and everything in Donbass but Ukraine restrained from doing anything that amounts to oppression against Russian speakers or ethnic Russians by Western nations in newly re-won territories. Ukraine doing such a thing ought to (justly) render itself open to Western pressure, and all that entails. Of course the Russians are not inherently owed a naval base in Sevastopol and that can and would go in an "ideal" Ukrainian victory.

Ethnic Russians should not be rendered victims of a Ukrainian reconquista.
We cannot let this become Armenia vs Azerbaijan on a much larger scale, something Putin has helped pull along. If Russia no longer has the theoretical ability to stop things from sliding into that position, then we will have to.

The last thing we should want is a legitimate casus belli in the future of "protecting Russians" being delivered into the hands of a future President of Russia thanks to a Ukrainian government acting beyond its bounds. Especially if said Ukrainian government was actually within NATO+EU.

In the future, in any case, Ukraine might play a role vis a vis Russia what Japan does vis a vis China - very similar countries in many ways, but on our side. This is assuming a Russo-Chinese axis cannot be stopped from forming, of course.

[Woody]

Haven't heard much from the Chechens for a while.

https://twitter.com/Akhmatpilled/status/1651133012195659776?cxt=HHwWgMC-zb-ugOot...
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1651494918978674689?cxt=HHwWgoCxoZ_4pOst...
https://twitter.com/Akhmatpilled/status/1651636800790700045?cxt=HHwWmoC9ke265est...

[Red Velvet]

#globalsouthlolol #redvelvetinruins

Hahahahaha

Southern Brazil Region by top ancestry from its citizens:



This Batel team home town in the state of Paraná:



Any coincidences? It’s not like the Ukrainian ancestry region of Brazil is that big.

Yeah, a small obscure football team that no one ever heard of before from Southern Paraná (region with by far the most Ukrainian descendants in the country) supporting Ukraine completely destroys every geopolitical theory about multilaterism and real trends of a global south more assertive that defends its self-interest more strongly.

You guys have to resort to that because you understand and agree that the global south trend is real. But it’s inconvenient to your interests/narrative to admit leaderships have shown this, so you have to resort for random stuff like this, like a Z-list regional team position.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Anyway, the Batel football club is more influential and more dependent on the opinion of the Brazilians than a certain comrade Red Velvet.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

We're looking at a likely schism in the lands of the former Kievan Rus. Russia and Ukraine are interested in maximalistic goals and they both have interest in keeping this up as long as they psychically can.

Considering the region only, the ideal post-war scenario might be Russia losing Crimea and everything in Donbass but Ukraine restrained from doing anything that amounts to oppression against Russian speakers or ethnic Russians by Western nations in newly re-won territories. Ukraine doing such a thing ought to (justly) render itself open to Western pressure, and all that entails. Of course the Russians are not inherently owed a naval base in Sevastopol and that can and would go in an "ideal" Ukrainian victory.

Ethnic Russians should not be rendered victims of a Ukrainian reconquista.
We cannot let this become Armenia vs Azerbaijan on a much larger scale, something Putin has helped pull along. If Russia no longer has the theoretical ability to stop things from sliding into that position, then we will have to.

The last thing we should want is a legitimate casus belli in the future of "protecting Russians" being delivered into the hands of a future President of Russia thanks to a Ukrainian government acting beyond its bounds. Especially if said Ukrainian government was actually within NATO+EU.

In the future, in any case, Ukraine might play a role vis a vis Russia what Japan does vis a vis China - very similar countries in many ways, but on our side. This is assuming a Russo-Chinese axis cannot be stopped from forming, of course.

Putin attacked without any casus belli, and the appearance of the casus belli three or five years later will in no way reduce the criminality of the unjustified war unleashed by Putin.

In fact, Putin's state is no longer even a state, it is something between the Mao's Anarchyland and ISIS.

[Torie]

We're looking at a likely schism in the lands of the former Kievan Rus. Russia and Ukraine are interested in maximalistic goals and they both have interest in keeping this up as long as they psychically can.

Considering the region only, the ideal post-war scenario might be Russia losing Crimea and everything in Donbass but Ukraine restrained from doing anything that amounts to oppression against Russian speakers or ethnic Russians by Western nations in newly re-won territories. Ukraine doing such a thing ought to (justly) render itself open to Western pressure, and all that entails. Of course the Russians are not inherently owed a naval base in Sevastopol and that can and would go in an "ideal" Ukrainian victory.

Ethnic Russians should not be rendered victims of a Ukrainian reconquista.
We cannot let this become Armenia vs Azerbaijan on a much larger scale, something Putin has helped pull along. If Russia no longer has the theoretical ability to stop things from sliding into that position, then we will have to.

The last thing we should want is a legitimate casus belli in the future of "protecting Russians" being delivered into the hands of a future President of Russia thanks to a Ukrainian government acting beyond its bounds. Especially if said Ukrainian government was actually within NATO+EU.

In the future, in any case, Ukraine might play a role vis a vis Russia what Japan does vis a vis China - very similar countries in many ways, but on our side. This is assuming a Russo-Chinese axis cannot be stopped from forming, of course.

The above strikes me as at once an optimistic and excellent outcome, and a reasonable one. I suspect that aside from the ethnic cleansing fascist oriented recent arrivals, who should be deported back home (they would flee back anyway, they arrived to be masters not guests), the Russians in Ukraine are probably by and large a lot less interested in where they live being a part of Russia than before. That, and the fact that ethnic Russians in large numbers percentage wise in Estonia and Latvia, countries which have less in common with Russia, particularly non-Slavic Estonia, are tolerated reasonably well (which ethnic Russians now perhaps mostly grateful that Putin's zone of control is across a NATO protected border from them), causes me to be optimistic that Ukraine will not be doing an ethnic cleansing in reverse. Ukraine given this horrible war and the loss of so many, including many who left whom with new ties may not return, needs the people anyway to rebuild.

My main complaint, noted above, is that I think the failure of the West to do what is necessary to give Ukraine air superiority by now is a major mistake, both from a war and ethical standpoint (as Russia focuses on the terror bombing of civilian infrastructure akin to a never ending London blitz). The West should have been training Ukrainian pilots at warp speed for the past year as an example, and provided them with the most advanced  missiles to take down the incoming one way of the other before it arrives.

I still suspect this war can't really end with Putin ending, which is a sobering but I fear all too realistic thought. And he clearly has gotten that memo. Nobody gets near him, he never announces his schedule, and he seems to have his doubles running around all over the place. Too bad nobody has been able to put a chip in the bastard.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1651878011396931587?s=20
This war can’t end with Russia getting an inch of Ukrainian soil and it’s time for South Korea to give Ukraine ammo (as Russia has crossed their red line) and for the West to give F-16s

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, so the football club in question aren't "real" Brazilians.

I see

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651942578021957635

[Hindsight was 2020]

For everyone who has cited “muh NATO aggression” Putin has openly admitted that the war is about his Slavic version of Großgermanisches Reich der Deutschen Nation
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651977399486099457

[Red Velvet]

Ah, so the football club in question aren't "real" Brazilians.

I see

Who said they weren’t? It’s just they’re very specific and limited group of Brazilians from a very specific and small region that people here are acting like they are more representative than idk, whatever actual leaderships say, simply because they need to find a “good” global south example in order to preserve their bubble where these discussions of global north vs global south interests being at odds with each other do not exist.

Lmao at my opinion and neither what Lula said being “representative”, but a random z-list football team no one here in actual Brazil knows (at least outside that region/town they’re from, maybe not even there tbh) being ~representative~ because it fits the westerners narrative here.

They apparently don’t even play in the lowest national division. Doing some research, they only play in the Third Division (3rd most important) of the Paraná STATE. Just to show how small and regional that team is.

Like, me using Tucker Carlson as an example of why Americans are against sanctions on Russia/sending aid to Ukraine would be much less ridiculous than this, because he at least represents a significant (even if minority) movement from Republicans.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

For everyone who has cited “muh NATO aggression” Putin has openly admitted that the war is about his Slavic version of Großgermanisches Reich der Deutschen Nation
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651977399486099457

Que the both sides brigade
 Ukraine isn’t offering education in the language of their colonizers, so that just as bad

[Badger]

#globalsouthlolol #redvelvetinruins

Hahahahaha

Southern Brazil Region by top ancestry from its citizens:



This Batel team home town in the state of Paraná:



Any coincidences? It’s not like the Ukrainian ancestry region of Brazil is that big.

Yeah, a small obscure football team that no one ever heard of before from Southern Paraná (region with by far the most Ukrainian descendants in the country) supporting Ukraine completely destroys every geopolitical theory about multilaterism and real trends of a global south more assertive that defends its self-interest more strongly.

You guys have to resort to that because you understand and agree that the global south trend is real. But it’s inconvenient to your interests/narrative to admit leaderships have shown this, so you have to resort for random stuff like this, like a Z-list regional team position.

You were ramblings on this subject are as nonsensical as they are constructed in a moral vacuum. But perhaps the most damning indictment is the number of recommends your posts get from compucomp. Enough said.

[Storr]

Based Pavel:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1651966861813096448?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1652037793806184449?s=20

[Storr]

Stuff like this reinforces my belief that Russia doesn't want to negotiate.

I can't speak for other people, but that fact Russia keeps striking civilian buildings makes me angry and feel like the US government should give the Ukrainians whatever they want. F-16s? I don't care that they are expensive to operate compared to Soviet fighters and can only operate from a few airbases in Ukraine. Give them more money to operate them and build/upgrade airbases so they can operate F-16s from them.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1651858221617774593?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1651842613245517824?s=20

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1651849759328534528?s=20

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1652015528750268435?s=20

[Torie]

Putin blowing away civilians by destroying apartment buildings that while creating horrific civilian human suffering has next to no military value, is evidence of  madman bent on genocide. It is certainly not going to break Ukrainian will to do what it takes to not be subjugated to the cruel fascist. How long will the West tolerates this until it does what needs to be done to clear Ukrainian skies of Putin's ability to continue the slaughter remains to be seen. I sometimes wish I were POTUS right now. I mean that. It traumatizes me to witness this where it could be stopped with an adequate will.

[HillGoose]

Putin is bombing babies and yet over here in the USA all our cowardly politicians refuse to give Ukraine what they need to take the fight to the russkis.


it is shameful !

[NOVA Green]

US providing assistance to identify the perps in the event of a dirty bomb or nuclear incident within Ukraine:

The United States is wiring Ukraine with sensors that can detect‌‌ bursts of radiation from a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb and can confirm the identity of the attacker.

In part, the goal is to make sure that if Russia detonates a radioactive weapon on Ukrainian soil, its atomic signature and Moscow’s culpability could be verified.

The Nuclear Emergency Support Team, or NEST, a shadowy unit of atomic experts run by the security agency, is working with Ukraine to deploy the radiation sensors, train personnel, monitor data and warn of deadly radiation.

In a statement sent to The New York Times in response to a reporter’s question, the agency said the network of atomic sensors was being deployed “throughout the region” and would have the ability “to characterize the size, location and effects of any nuclear explosion.” Additionally, it said the deployed sensors would deny Russia “any opportunity to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine without attribution.”

In one scenario, Washington could use information gathered by the network to rule out the possibility of misidentifying the attacker who set off a nuclear blast. That might seem like an unnecessary step given the distinctiveness of a mushroom cloud. But if a weapon was delivered by a truck, tank or boat instead of a conspicuous missile with a trackable flight path, figuring out its origins might prove near impossible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/science/ukraine-nuclear-radiation-sensors.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1651738470811856898

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow Ukraine launched a drone strike on the oil reserve in Crimea and this is the results
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1652147811482312704
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1652153119650770944

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%     +3.0%           +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%     +3.0%          +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0% 
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1$       +2.0%          +2.5%

2022 GDP and CPI mostly locked in.  There might be a chance 2022 Eurozone GDP might be adjusted downward but that is it.

2023 Q1 GDP numbers came in.  PRC outperformed expectations, USA underperformed expectations while Eurozone numbers are about a bit below expectations.  PRC, Russia, and UK 2023 GDP prospects surged while Japan prospects fell a bit.  The 2023 USA GDP projections has not taken into account the 2023 Q1 numbers so I expect the May USA 2023 GDP projections to slide.  On the flip side the momentum of PRC GDP estimates seems to be rising so I would expect 2023 GDP estimates to rise this coming month.

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from March 2023 calculation)
Russia      -7.4% (+0.3%)
Eurozone  -2.5% (+0.1%)
USA         -3.1% (+0.1%)
UK           -3.1% (+0.3%)
PRC          -1.8% (+0.3%)
Japan       -2.5% (-0.1%)

Once you take into account that the collective West PPP GDP is about 9 times bigger than Russia the cumulative economic loss Russia has been able to inflict on the collective West for the economic damage Russia took is about 3.5 to 1.  Even at such positive ratios for Russia the relative impact clearly is a lot worse for Russia.  On the other hand a net cumulative impact of -7.4% seems manageable from Russia's point of view.  Ukraine's 2022 GDP came in at -29.1%, a bit better than expected but clearly a large net impact relative to pre-war estimates of well over -30%.

[CumbrianLefty]

I wonder if Putin indulges in these periodic terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians at least partly because he *does* want to provoke some sort of response?

His mentality is certainly brain-wormed enough these days.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fuel-tank-ablaze-sevastopol-official-says-apparent-drone-attack-2023-04-29/

"Fire at Crimea fuel depot extinguished after apparent drone attack, governor says"

It seems some Ukraiaina drones got through and hit some of Sevastopol's oil depots.  It seems the fire has been put out so the damage is significant but contained.