Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh red velvet and hollywood are the only real ones who act like this isn’t a black and white conflict. Woodbury is more about pushing a “Russia is winning the war and it’s all Brandon’s fault if Daddy Trump were here everything would be right” and jaichind is more interested in promoting the idea of making money off the sanctions then the morality of the war

The last named has also said that they like Putin, though.

[2952-0-0]

The outbursts of Solovyov and dozens of other Putin mouths, including Medvedev for example, repeat in other words the same message of Mao. And this should be alarming.

The agenda of the Ruscists as a whole coincides with the agenda of the Chinese National Communists: Maoist Stalinism, Maoist hatred of Khrushchev; hatred for the British and Americans, which grew after the Opium Wars and cemented after the Korean War, in which the Chinese died for Stalin's wishes, as now the Russians die for Winnie's wishes; the capture of fraternal Tibet, when the Chinese destroyed half of the entire population and almost completely destroyed the fraternal Tibetan culture, the Russians are quite consistently trying to repeat it in Ukraine; Putin's gangs modeled on the Red Guards and Zaofan; again, crazy rhetoric about nuclear war and so on.

Before the Age of Shame, the Chinese did not have a normal industry, they relied on artisans. The Chinese have taken this into account, now the whole world relies on their industry. It must be borne in mind that, unlike the same Russians, the Chinese are able to learn from their mistakes, and now the Russians who ruled China have themselves become ruled by China.

The words of the elite of dictatorships who profess hatred against the west would be more credible, if they didn't stash their wealth in western banks, put their family and mistresses in western countries (even ensuring they had western passports), and bought mansions in western cities. That's why Solovyov exploded when it was revealed his son was, in fact, living in London. Similarly, last year, when Chinese social media sites started displaying the IP locations of all posters, an unintended consequence was that many "Little Pinks" immediately became laughingstocks. As for Winnie himself, his sister lives in Canada, his ex in the UK, his cousin in Australia, and his daughter studied at Harvard. The Soviet elite never came close to this, even if they did enjoy privileged access to western goods. Yes, they want the ignorant masses to genuinely believe their nonsense, but they have cognitive dissonance: they simultaneously believe their nonsense, but don't act like it.

And, the idea that the CCP are uniquely able to learn from the past is an Orientalist trope. If the CCP did learn from their mistakes, they would not have elected Winnie as the General Secretary, and then built a personality cult around him, don't you think? It is certainly true that the CCP invested huge resources into studying the Soviet Union's collapse. It is true that, in previous decades, it correctly blamed the USSR's failure on its internal economic and ideological stagnation, and that Gorbachev simply brought what was inevitable. But these lessons evolved in the wrong direction more recently, blaming the collapse on Gorbachev's reforms themselves.

https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/the-ccps-changing-understanding-of-the-soviet-unions-collapse/

As we know, learning the wrong lessons is worse than not learning anything. It's been clear for some time that Winnie has become the Chinese Brezhnev, with increasingly absurd propaganda and a personality cult masking the ideological and economic stagnation that has taken hold. The similarities even extend to their frosty relationship with their respective Premiers (Li Keqiang and Kosygin), who were more technocratically and economically minded, and eventually sidelined by the boss. Even the types of jokes told about the two are similar: Winnie is senile, illiterate, and possessed by delusions of grandeur. As we know, Brezhnev's era was the height of Soviet power in the world. He also didn't hesitate to crack down on dissent both inside the USSR and in the Soviet Bloc. But Brezhnev became, in retrospect, synonymous with stagnation. His final acts as leader were to crack down on Solidarity in Poland and invade Afghanistan: in retrospect, these were the beginning of the end for the entire system.

What does this mean for China's future? Well, we can expect stagnation to continue to take hold. It's possible that a war that Winnie thinks could be quick and easy would be waged, though - just like Brezhnev, he won't be so reckless as to start a war where he thinks the west would directly intervene. But as time drags on, the rot will become unmistakable, and his demise will lead to something unpredictable. The end result is that, far from learning from the mistakes of its own past, and of the Soviet Union, the CCP will not have learnt anything after all.

There's also the misconception about China's place in global industrial supply chains: yes, it's massive. But its supply chains are critically dependent on imported components from the west, and its efforts to create its own alternatives have been frustratingly slow and expensive. This means that, rather than the notion that the western powers are dependent on China's industries, it's the reverse that is closer to the truth.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1649182829580828672
Lol 😂

"Abnormal descent of aviation munition" is certainly one way to put it:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1649156851500560387?s=20

The Russians spend all this time lie about embarrassing mishaps earlier in the war only to admit to one of the most embarrassing here .

[Woody]

Nobody knows what the real casualties are in Ukraine. High, on both sides, is a good guess. Anything else, especially when expressed in terms of ratios, is pure speculation. An accurate casualty ratio is something that we’ll probably have to wait until the third generation of historians are publishing their books on this conflict in the 2080s.

No? I mean you say that assertively, but meanwhile in reality the combined military intelligence of several Nations do in fact have a pretty good idea of what the casually rate is, and the numbers ain't good for russia.

You may now go weep bitterly in a corner at this dose of reality, while the rest of us cry out Solva Ukraine

omg so cringe. Can't even write it properly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Nobody knows what the real casualties are in Ukraine. High, on both sides, is a good guess. Anything else, especially when expressed in terms of ratios, is pure speculation. An accurate casualty ratio is something that we’ll probably have to wait until the third generation of historians are publishing their books on this conflict in the 2080s.

No? I mean you say that assertively, but meanwhile in reality the combined military intelligence of several Nations do in fact have a pretty good idea of what the casually rate is, and the numbers ain't good for russia.

You may now go weep bitterly in a corner at this dose of reality, while the rest of us cry out Solva Ukraine

omg so cringe. Can't even write it properly.

It's Badger's speech-to-text, and it should never change.

[NOVA Green]

It appears quite possible that the "Discord Leakings" go back much further than previously realized and published to a larger chat group audience.

The Air National Guardsman accused of leaking classified documents to a small group of gamers had been posting sensitive information months earlier than previously known and to a much larger chat group, according to online postings reviewed by The New York Times.

In February 2022, soon after the invasion of Ukraine, a user profile matching that of Airman Jack Teixeira began posting secret intelligence on the Russian war effort on a previously undisclosed chat group on Discord, a social media platform popular among gamers. The chat group contained about 600 members.

The newly discovered information posted on the larger chat group included details about Russian and Ukrainian casualties, activities of Moscow’s spy agencies and updates on aid being provided to Ukraine. The user claimed to be posting information from the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence agencies.

The additional information raises questions about why authorities did not discover the leaks sooner, particularly since hundreds more people would have been able to see the posts.

The Times learned about the larger chat room from a Discord user. Unlike Thug Shaker Central, the second chat room was publicly listed on a YouTube channel and was easily accessed in seconds.

A chain of digital evidence collected by The Times ties the posts containing the sensitive information to Airman Teixeira. The posts were made under a user name that The Times has previously connected to Airman Teixeira. The person leaking the information said he worked at a U.S. Air Force intelligence unit. Details in videos and photographs he posted matched images posted by family members inside the Teixeira home in North Dighton, Mass. Fellow Discord members sent the user birthday wishes on Dec. 21, the same date Airman Teixeira’s sister wished him a happy birthday on Facebook. And he posted a photograph of an antique German rifle for which The Times found an online receipt in Airman Teixeira’s name.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/us/politics/jack-teixeira-leaks-russia-ukraine.html

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe it's been mentioned yet, but American tanks should be showing up in Ukraine sooner than expected.

Ukrainian troops will begin training on American M1 Abrams tanks in Germany in the next few weeks, U.S. defense officials say, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it seeks to seize back territory from Russia.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III announced the timeline on Friday during a meeting with allies at Ramstein Air Base. Defense officials said that about 31 tanks were expected to arrive in Germany to begin a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.

But the United States stood firm in its refusal to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Speaking at a news conference after the meeting, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Ukraine’s air-defense system had worked effectively for more than a year and kept Russian warplanes “cautious” for fear of being shot down.

Sustaining Ukraine’s air defenses, he said, “is the most critical thing right now.” General Milley said the United States would continue to work with its allies to that end, emphasizing “we need to do everything we can to ensure that Ukraine has adequate air defense — ground-based air-defense capability.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/world/europe/us-ukraine-tanks-jets.html

[HillGoose]

yessss i love to hear that american tanks will soon be blowing the russki army away

[NOVA Green]

yessss i love to hear that american tanks will soon be blowing the russki army away

You will be happy to hear more is on the way... the cavalry is arriving.

[Storr]

I agree:

https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1649345511671906307?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1649415260145696768
An interesting thread breaking down the state of the battle of Bakmut

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

It appears quite possible that the "Discord Leakings" go back much further than previously realized and published to a larger chat group audience.

The Air National Guardsman accused of leaking classified documents to a small group of gamers had been posting sensitive information months earlier than previously known and to a much larger chat group, according to online postings reviewed by The New York Times.

In February 2022, soon after the invasion of Ukraine, a user profile matching that of Airman Jack Teixeira began posting secret intelligence on the Russian war effort on a previously undisclosed chat group on Discord, a social media platform popular among gamers. The chat group contained about 600 members.

The newly discovered information posted on the larger chat group included details about Russian and Ukrainian casualties, activities of Moscow’s spy agencies and updates on aid being provided to Ukraine. The user claimed to be posting information from the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence agencies.

The additional information raises questions about why authorities did not discover the leaks sooner, particularly since hundreds more people would have been able to see the posts.

The Times learned about the larger chat room from a Discord user. Unlike Thug Shaker Central, the second chat room was publicly listed on a YouTube channel and was easily accessed in seconds.

A chain of digital evidence collected by The Times ties the posts containing the sensitive information to Airman Teixeira. The posts were made under a user name that The Times has previously connected to Airman Teixeira. The person leaking the information said he worked at a U.S. Air Force intelligence unit. Details in videos and photographs he posted matched images posted by family members inside the Teixeira home in North Dighton, Mass. Fellow Discord members sent the user birthday wishes on Dec. 21, the same date Airman Teixeira’s sister wished him a happy birthday on Facebook. And he posted a photograph of an antique German rifle for which The Times found an online receipt in Airman Teixeira’s name.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/us/politics/jack-teixeira-leaks-russia-ukraine.html

Many years ago, I wondered why terrorists don't use private server chats in games like Minecraft, Second Life, Sansar and so on, because, unlike social networks and messengers, G-Men Dryasdusts will definitely not check these chats. At least because of the deadly allergy of G-Men Dryasdusts to video games. Well, it turns out o Sr. Teixeira had the same idea. It is possible that even more information was revealed in the in-game chat than in Discord.

[Storr]

Victor Orban later retweeted something including Stoltenburg's comment with the quote "What?"

But I'll take it:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1649340949170888704?s=20

[Storr]

Huh...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1649532657561108481?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1649310750127554561

[GoTfan]

Fun fact, despite Woodbury's wet dreams about Russia exterminating Ukraine forever, the Battle of Bakhmut has almost been carrying on as long as the Battle of Verdun.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Victor Orban later retweeted something including Stoltenburg's comment with the quote "What?"

After every news about Viktor Yanukovych Orban, I ask myself the question "Why?". Why is Hungary still in the EU and NATO? The only explanation I can find is to prevent Orban from attacking neighboring countries in an attempt to build a Russian Hungarian World.

[AndyHogan14]

Huh...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1649532657561108481?s=20

So, they are fighting for, um, Lebensraum?

[CumbrianLefty]

Victor Orban later retweeted something including Stoltenburg's comment with the quote "What?"

After every news about Viktor Yanukovych Orban, I ask myself the question "Why?". Why is Hungary still in the EU and NATO? The only explanation I can find is to prevent Orban from attacking neighboring countries in an attempt to build a Russian Hungarian World.

Practically speaking, its not that easy to throw a country out of either.

[The Mikado]

And since the “rules-based world order” doesn’t exist, or exists to be more in favor of people who look a certain way over others, we’re seeing people behave accordingly because it means we need to construct a completely new and more balanced world order. And the 1st path to this is necessarily weakening the dollar. The future is in the South and South-South collaboration..

Brazilians talking about how "BRICS realignment" is gonna break Western hegemony comes off like a third-string player who's been on the bench the entire time talking about how strong their winning team is with zero responsibility for its success. "The Global South" isn't rising, "BRICS" isn't rising, China and India are.

Brazil's economy is literally smaller than it was in 2010 and yet you're trying to tell me the USA is a fading economy? It has problems but at least its economy is in Drive and not Reverse.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Huh...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1649532657561108481?s=20

So, they are fighting for, um, Lebensraum?

The squad "Rusich" is outright Nazis. We can read more about the participation of outright neo-Nazis in the Russian-Ukrainian war in Ifri's article "Right-wing radicals on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict" No. 95, July 2016.

[oldtimer]

I think the most important rumours are the ones that the ukranian army has crossed the Dnieper river at Kherson.

The Dnieper has never been a substantial military obstacle, both the Germans and the Soviets crossed it without much of a problem in WW2.

It's too wide to defend it's banks and not wide enough to use naval vessels to block crossings,  another failure of the russian army to anticipate the inevitable.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1649415260145696768
An interesting thread breaking down the state of the battle of Bakmut

It's nothing that we haven't seen before.

If you look at the pictures, Artillery has a very low accuracy, probably 3%.

It's very rare one shell hits something, particularly if it moves fast, that's why WW1 lasted until the armoured car was used in large numbers.

Now NATO Rocket Artillery has a 100% accuracy, it never misses a stationary target thanks to all the satellite guidance systems, so until Russia does a "Starfish Prime" on all low earth satellites, or invents the armoured jeep, it has no hope.

Plain Artillery hasn't won a war since perhaps the Maratha wars 200 years ago ?
It's good for large over the ground stationary fortifications (medieval forts or concrete buildings), uselss for anything else.

[Red Velvet]

And since the “rules-based world order” doesn’t exist, or exists to be more in favor of people who look a certain way over others, we’re seeing people behave accordingly because it means we need to construct a completely new and more balanced world order. And the 1st path to this is necessarily weakening the dollar. The future is in the South and South-South collaboration..

Brazilians talking about how "BRICS realignment" is gonna break Western hegemony comes off like a third-string player who's been on the bench the entire time talking about how strong their winning team is with zero responsibility for its success. "The Global South" isn't rising, "BRICS" isn't rising, China and India are.

Brazil's economy is literally smaller than it was in 2010 and yet you're trying to tell me the USA is a fading economy? It has problems but at least its economy is in Drive and not Reverse.

Not sure what your point is? Like, if you want to credit just China or India it makes no difference to me or to you, the end result is the same?

At least you’re acknowledging the dollar should be dropped, I guess. Regardless of whoever you want to cast as the protagonist player for this.

Btw, even non-BRICS countries can look and follow standards being set up by the BRICS, you don’t necessarily have to be in that group to drop the dollar as a reserve currency or to seek for other alternatives. Indonesia isn’t in BRICS, neither is Tunisia; Saudi Arabia; etc and look at current new developments from these places. I find everything you say much more desperation narrative in order to stimulate competition inside global south when there isn’t anything to compete about lol.

If anything, the more countries dropping the dollar, the better. Because they can use whatever influence/example they have for others to feel safe to do the same. It’s not about having a main protagonist spot like you make it sound lmao.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think the most important rumours are the ones that the ukranian army has crossed the Dnieper river at Kherson.

The Dnieper has never been a substantial military obstacle, both the Germans and the Soviets crossed it without much of a problem in WW2.

It's too wide to defend it's banks and not wide enough to use naval vessels to block crossings,  another failure of the russian army to anticipate the inevitable.

It’s no longer a rumor 👀
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1650045911165222912