Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 932061 times)
Storr
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« Reply #14700 on: September 20, 2022, 01:36:19 PM »
Quote from: Splash on September 20, 2022, 01:24:55 PM
I still don't understand how mobilization will benefit Russia in the short-or-medium term. I mean, most observers have witnessed the under-equipped, ill-trained, impoverished masses that Russia has sent to the front in the past several weeks. Will multiplying that recruitment strategy yield dividends for overall troop cohesion or morale when their recruits can't even be properly supplied or fed as it is?

The annexation of Ukrainian provinces seems like an even more desperate to shape the narrative of the war. Ukrainians currently control fractions of all of the oblasts in question and they've been carrying out attacks in Belgorod and Crimea for months, so I don't see how annexing these territories would provide Putin with a pretext for further escalation or mobilization that he doesn't already possess (if he seriously wanted it).    
I agree, all of this reeks of desperation. Russia could have had referendums for Luhansk and Donetsk at anytime in the last 8 years, but has not done so (until now). It looks like we might not be getting a speech after all:



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Woody
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« Reply #14701 on: September 20, 2022, 01:47:39 PM »
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Logical
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« Reply #14702 on: September 20, 2022, 02:02:16 PM »
He's trolling us all isn't he?
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Woody
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« Reply #14703 on: September 20, 2022, 02:09:30 PM »
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #14704 on: September 20, 2022, 02:22:56 PM »
Old people joke
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Woody
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« Reply #14705 on: September 20, 2022, 02:23:53 PM »


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President Johnson
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« Reply #14706 on: September 20, 2022, 02:24:00 PM »
Quote from: You'll taste it, you'll taste it in time on September 20, 2022, 11:18:54 AM
Hearing reports that Germany has already hit 90% of their needed natural gas stockpile for the winter without any Russian gas. So they'll easily meet the goal at this rate. Russia is pretty much screwed in this regard now.

That's correct. There also more LNG terminals under construction at the coast to import more gas from the Middle East, the US and Canada. That still remains a lot more expensive and gas prices are expected to double or triple compared to last year. The biggest question here remains how harsh winter weather gets. In a cold winter, it may not be enough.

What remains to be important is that we no longer produce electricity from gas, which is still about 13% in Germany (nearly half is renewable already, while nuclear is phasing out).
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Storr
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« Reply #14707 on: September 20, 2022, 02:25:22 PM »
My vote is on a late night hockey practice:



Putin's top propagandist Margarita Simonyan tweeted "Are you waiting?":
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Storr
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« Reply #14708 on: September 20, 2022, 02:29:27 PM »

Yes:
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #14709 on: September 20, 2022, 02:36:20 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2022, 02:39:55 PM by DINGO Joe »
Quote from: You'll taste it, you'll taste it in time on September 20, 2022, 11:18:54 AM
Hearing reports that Germany has already hit 90% of their needed natural gas stockpile for the winter without any Russian gas. So they'll easily meet the goal at this rate. Russia is pretty much screwed in this regard now.

This is correct

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/092022-german-gas-storage-tops-90-as-scholz-eyes-lng-supply-from-uae-qatar

Their next goal is 95% by Nov 1st which they won't have any trouble hitting.  For logistic reasons you really can't get to 100%. 

Also, Russia exports have plummeted in the first half of September

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/russian-oil-flows-dive-hurting-putin-s-war-chest

or

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091622-russian-oil-exports-slide-to-post-war-low-as-sanctions-loom-crude-discounts-narrow

BTW, anyone can register to read S&P articles for free

Also, the US still has SPR oil to sell

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091922-us-doe-issues-notice-to-sell-up-to-10-mil-barrels-from-spr-for-delivery-in-nov

The initial plan was to finish selling in October but the demand hasn't been as great as needed, so even with the Nov sales they've still got 15 million barrels to sell.


Anyway, Russia has a (fake) plan to mobilize and increase war production while their revenue is collapsing and they can't seem to manufacture or supply sh**t for what's left of their current army.


It's going to be a long hard winter for the Russkies, not sure they can survive.
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Storr
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« Reply #14710 on: September 20, 2022, 02:40:44 PM »
"People unable to organize a speech, undertook to organize a mobilization.

Oh well."
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #14711 on: September 20, 2022, 02:42:13 PM »
Meanwhile in Kherson



Russian basically have one trick, artillery, and now they have to conserve it.
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Mopsus
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« Reply #14712 on: September 20, 2022, 02:47:02 PM »
No need to worry, the speech didn’t withdraw, it just strategically regrouped to tomorrow.
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Storr
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« Reply #14713 on: September 20, 2022, 03:14:12 PM »
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14714 on: September 20, 2022, 03:18:43 PM »
Quote from: Mopolis on September 20, 2022, 02:47:02 PM
No need to worry, the speech didn’t withdraw, it just strategically regrouped to tomorrow.

It's not a speech, it's a "special announcement operation".
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Storr
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« Reply #14715 on: September 20, 2022, 03:45:08 PM »
This will probably end up being nothing because Chechnya is literally a police state, but sharing because this could become something notable:
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jaichind
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« Reply #14716 on: September 20, 2022, 04:52:42 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/eu-guidance-weakens-the-bloc-s-sanctions-on-coal-countries-warn

It seems the European Commission is saying that Russian coal is allowed if it comes through third parties which would be a weakening of sanctions.  It is getting pushback
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jaichind
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« Reply #14717 on: September 20, 2022, 04:53:45 PM »
It seems clear Ukraine will all out with offensives to disrupt the referendums.   Exciting battles ahead.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #14718 on: September 20, 2022, 05:02:29 PM »
In retrospect it seems what took place was Putin made the call to escalate and then spent time in SCO summut in Samarkand selling his partners (PRC India Iran) on his decision.  PRC and  India were going to be hard sells since both are very sensitive to secessionist movements.  But I guess Putin got it done since without de facto economic cooperation with these partners the Russian war efforr will eventually run out of steam so Putin could not afford to cross these partners.   
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #14719 on: September 20, 2022, 06:28:40 PM »
Quote from: Storr on September 20, 2022, 02:29:27 PM

Yes:



Hopefully someone in the Russian military hierarchy had the good sense of "disappearing" Putin. Or maybe he had a stroke or something. But we'll probably won't be as lucky.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #14720 on: September 20, 2022, 07:19:07 PM »
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on September 20, 2022, 06:28:40 PM
Quote from: Storr on September 20, 2022, 02:29:27 PM

Yes:



Hopefully someone in the Russian military hierarchy had the good sense of "disappearing" Putin. Or maybe he had a stroke or something. But we'll probably won't be as lucky.

Maybe somebody in the FSB but not in the military, they are a very feeble group.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14721 on: September 20, 2022, 07:47:11 PM »
So again a reminder that the reason why Ukraine survives as a free and independent nation has much less to do with Western weapons than simply the will of their people.

It's a very long article, with a 41(!) minute audio, and is not necessarily as much an "update" per say but rather focuses mainly on the early part of the war around Kyiv. so I'll just live you all with the link for now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-invasion-ukraine-battle-of-kyiv-ragtag-army-11663683336?mod=hp_lead_pos7
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HillGoose
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« Reply #14722 on: September 20, 2022, 08:34:56 PM »
plz be swan lake
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14723 on: September 20, 2022, 08:38:40 PM »
Russian subs moving further away from Crimea within the Black Sea, plus another is leaving the Med bcs of "maint issues".
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14724 on: September 20, 2022, 08:43:38 PM »
Interesting.... wonder what has happened in Mariupol early tonight, Ukrainian time?
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