Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

I suspect what Putin wants to do is to have referendums in LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporozhye and then after that, any Ukraine attack in those areas is "legally in Russia" an invasion of Russia which gives him the "legal" excuse to have to escalate and mobilize and still claim to his domestic audience "It was not me, it was the Ukrainians ..."

That’s really the only reason.

[Dereich]

Meduza cites sources close to Putin’s administration: https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/partiya-voyny-pobedila

They claim the plan is to use the referendums to deter Ukraine from advancing further. If they do, the fallback is to conduct a “partial mobilisation”. They don’t specify what that is, but based on previous reporting, this could mean some combination of compelling refuseniks (which the new Duma law seems to do), conscripting retired or reservist specialists/officers, using active-duty conscripts and fully mobilising certain border regions.

Welcome to Russia Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces! You are now drafted as part of full mobilization, go fight and die for your new country.

[Person Man]

Meduza cites sources close to Putin’s administration: https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/partiya-voyny-pobedila

They claim the plan is to use the referendums to deter Ukraine from advancing further. If they do, the fallback is to conduct a “partial mobilisation”. They don’t specify what that is, but based on previous reporting, this could mean some combination of compelling refuseniks (which the new Duma law seems to do), conscripting retired or reservist specialists/officers, using active-duty conscripts and fully mobilising certain border regions.

Welcome to Russia Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces! You are now drafted as part of full mobilization, go fight and die for your new country.

Didn't basically all the dudes in Luhansk and Donetsk either had escaped or were "liquidated"?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/firamnews/status/1572254872736796678?cxt=HHwWjMDUncDe4tErAAA...

[Logical]

"Poll" for the "referendum". Donetsk 94%, Luhansk 93%, Zaporozhizhia 87%, Kherson 80% yes. Wonder how much it will match the "official results".
https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1572205450598154241

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Meduza cites sources close to Putin’s administration: https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/partiya-voyny-pobedila

They claim the plan is to use the referendums to deter Ukraine from advancing further. If they do, the fallback is to conduct a “partial mobilisation”. They don’t specify what that is, but based on previous reporting, this could mean some combination of compelling refuseniks (which the new Duma law seems to do), conscripting retired or reservist specialists/officers, using active-duty conscripts and fully mobilising certain border regions.

Welcome to Russia Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces! You are now drafted as part of full mobilization, go fight and die for your new country.

Forced mobilisation of occupied Ukrainians is already happening there. It’d extend to Rostov, Belgorod, etc.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hearing reports that Germany has already hit 90% of their needed natural gas stockpile for the winter without any Russian gas. So they'll easily meet the goal at this rate. Russia is pretty much screwed in this regard now.

[Woody]

Girkin-Strelkov says Ukraine only has 1.5-2 months to try to defeat the Russian Army before massive reinforcements come from mobilization

Source: https://www.dialog.ua/war/259008_1663675453

In his Telegram channel, Girkin suggested that after 7 months, the Russian leadership realized that the original plan to invade Ukraine had failed. According to him, now Russia will try to fight "for real".

Girkin believes that Moscow's plans may force Ukraine to speed up a general offensive, since Kyiv and Ukraine's Western allies have about 2 months to defeat the "battered Russian army" - before mobilized Russians begin to enter it.

"They now have a month and a half or two to try to defeat our battered, but retaining the integrity of the personnel-contract army before it begins to receive massive reinforcements from the mobilized ,"

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ukrainewar24/status/1572262821311774721
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1572256526550839296

[Storr]

15 minutes until 20:00 Moscow Time. Lets see what this is. I'd guess it's "officially" announcing the referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. I doubt it's mobilization, but who knows what's going on in Putin's head.

https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1572238820493627399?s=20&t=-uzKWxn...

[Storr]

Meduza cites sources close to Putin’s administration: https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/partiya-voyny-pobedila

They claim the plan is to use the referendums to deter Ukraine from advancing further. If they do, the fallback is to conduct a “partial mobilisation”. They don’t specify what that is, but based on previous reporting, this could mean some combination of compelling refuseniks (which the new Duma law seems to do), conscripting retired or reservist specialists/officers, using active-duty conscripts and fully mobilising certain border regions.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572266077710843904?s=20&t=-uzKWxnSie5EOk...

[Storr]

"Poll" for the "referendum". Donetsk 94%, Luhansk 93%, Zaporozhizhia 87%, Kherson 80% yes. Wonder how much it will match the "official results".
https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1572205450598154241

Most of the votes not in favor of annexation are "difficult to answer". I'm certain this poll is completely accurate and conducted using the highest standards, lol.:

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1572205804350062592?s=20&t=-uzKWxnSi...


Efficient Russian democracy at work, folks:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1572252704763944962?s=20&t=-uzKWxnSie5E...

[Storr]

Long live the Kabardino-Balkarian and Karachay-Cherkessian Republics!!!

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572267089708326913?s=20&t=-uzKWxnS...

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572263254050611202?s=20&t=-uzKWxnS...

[Person Man]

Long live the Kabardino-Balkarian and Karachay-Cherkessian Republics!!!

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572267089708326913?s=20&t=-uzKWxnS...

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572263254050611202?s=20&t=-uzKWxnS...

So Woodbury was talking out of his butt again?

[Woody]

Long live the Kabardino-Balkarian and Karachay-Cherkessian Republics!!!

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572267089708326913?s=20&t=-uzKWxnSie5EOkfnrKQbpA
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572263254050611202?s=20&t=-uzKWxnSie5EOkfnrKQbpA

So Woodbury was talking out of his butt again?

This post is from an hour ago. Putin's statement has yet to be broadcasted lol. Seems like his speech has been delayed, yet to say when.

[Woody]

He will be speaking any moment now.

[jaichind]

I suspect what Putin wants to do is to have referendums in LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporozhye and then after that, any Ukraine attack in those areas is "legally in Russia" an invasion of Russia which gives him the "legal" excuse to have to escalate and mobilize and still claim to his domestic audience "It was not me, it was the Ukrainians ..."

That’s really the only reason.

Of course, Putin is taking a risk here.  if occupied Ukraine becomes Russia proper so a Ukrainian attack on occupied Ukraine can be viewed as an attack on Russia proper as per Russian law then there is nothing stopping Ukraine from attacking pre-war Russia proper as well.

[Dereich]

The weird thing about the pro-Russian viewpoints I always see is this pervading, underlying belief that they're always on the cusp of victory if only they were to put in a little bit more effort. If only Russia had a few ten thousand more men, if only western support were to slow down, if only they could push through Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk then Ukrainian resistance would fall apart and Russia would get the quick easy victory that they were just unlucky not to get from the start. Its like Russia supporters cannot acknowledge both that Russia is no longer a military powerhouse capable of enforcing its will wherever it wants or that Ukrainians have their own strongly compelling reasons to fight and the ability to do so even if the West were to pull out its support.

This potential mobilization is the same thing; even if Russia were to fully mobilize is there any reason to think that it'd mean Ukrainian support for the war would collapse or that the Russian military would be better equipped or positioned to swiftly win the war? I doubt it.

[KaiserDave]

The weird thing about the pro-Russian viewpoints I always see is this pervading, underlying belief that they're always on the cusp of victory if only they were to put in a little bit more effort. If only Russia had a few ten thousand more men, if only western support were to slow down, if only they could push through Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk then Ukrainian resistance would fall apart and Russia would get the quick easy victory that they were just unlucky not to get from the start. Its like Russia supporters cannot acknowledge both that Russia is no longer a military powerhouse capable of enforcing its will wherever it wants or that Ukrainians have their own strongly compelling reasons to fight and the ability to do so even if the West were to pull out its support.

This potential mobilization is the same thing; even if Russia were to fully mobilize is there any reason to think that it'd mean Ukrainian support for the war would collapse or that the Russian military would be better equipped or positioned to swiftly win the war? I doubt it.

To me, the perils of general mobilization for Putin don't exactly make me dread it.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1572276683775819776

[Person Man]

The weird thing about the pro-Russian viewpoints I always see is this pervading, underlying belief that they're always on the cusp of victory if only they were to put in a little bit more effort. If only Russia had a few ten thousand more men, if only western support were to slow down, if only they could push through Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk then Ukrainian resistance would fall apart and Russia would get the quick easy victory that they were just unlucky not to get from the start. Its like Russia supporters cannot acknowledge both that Russia is no longer a military powerhouse capable of enforcing its will wherever it wants or that Ukrainians have their own strongly compelling reasons to fight and the ability to do so even if the West were to pull out its support.

This potential mobilization is the same thing; even if Russia were to fully mobilize is there any reason to think that it'd mean Ukrainian support for the war would collapse or that the Russian military would be better equipped or positioned to swiftly win the war? I doubt it.

I mean, again, how long would it take to considerably raise the troop levels?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1572279436304597000?s=20&t=gONVePWGENRs...

[OSR stands with Israel]

The weird thing about the pro-Russian viewpoints I always see is this pervading, underlying belief that they're always on the cusp of victory if only they were to put in a little bit more effort. If only Russia had a few ten thousand more men, if only western support were to slow down, if only they could push through Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk then Ukrainian resistance would fall apart and Russia would get the quick easy victory that they were just unlucky not to get from the start. Its like Russia supporters cannot acknowledge both that Russia is no longer a military powerhouse capable of enforcing its will wherever it wants or that Ukrainians have their own strongly compelling reasons to fight and the ability to do so even if the West were to pull out its support.

This potential mobilization is the same thing; even if Russia were to fully mobilize is there any reason to think that it'd mean Ukrainian support for the war would collapse or that the Russian military would be better equipped or positioned to swiftly win the war? I doubt it.

To me, the perils of general mobilization for Putin don't exactly make me dread it.

Would this be a potential mutiny

[Storr]

Anyone want a free trip to Kherson?

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1572276755305758720?s=20&t=gONVePW...

[Splash]

I still don't understand how mobilization will benefit Russia in the short-or-medium term. I mean, most observers have witnessed the under-equipped, ill-trained, impoverished masses that Russia has sent to the front in the past several weeks. Will multiplying that recruitment strategy yield dividends for overall troop cohesion or morale when their recruits can't even be properly supplied or fed as it is?

The annexation of Ukrainian provinces seems like an even more desperate to shape the narrative of the war. Ukrainians currently control fractions of all of the oblasts in question and they've been carrying out attacks in Belgorod and Crimea for months, so I don't see how annexing these territories would provide Putin with a pretext for further escalation or mobilization that he doesn't already possess (if he seriously wanted it).