Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1565037514888560641

[jaichind]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Is-Quietly-Reselling-Its-Excess-Russian-LNG-To-Europe.html

"China Is Quietly Reselling Its Excess Russian LNG To Europe"

PRC getting in on the Russian gas resale to the EU markup game.

[2952-0-0]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Is-Quietly-Reselling-Its-Excess-Russian-LNG-To-Europe.html

"China Is Quietly Reselling Its Excess Russian LNG To Europe"

PRC getting in on the Russian gas resale to the EU markup game.

Translation: China is being two-faced while robbing Russia blind.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1564969689587007488

A well-known Russian source admitting Russian losses has some credibility, but I would hesitate to say this is "confirmed" - and all I can say in response to the recent flurry of posts here is that all of the reports and speculation should be treated with extreme caution.

I've refrained from posting about this counteroffensive because it's not even 100% clear that it's actually happening. There's not very much footage right now, seemingly due to tighter OPSEC, but we can at least say there have been localised counterattacks. If I'm missing something, let me know, but the evidence currently in the public domain boils down to claims about a handful of villages, Telegram chatter about heavy fighting, and an uptick in the visual destruction of vehicles. Nevertheless, two captured villlages would not typically be understood to be the results of a successful full-scale offensive, and four destroyed tanks would not be understood to be the results of a failed full-scale offensive.

It's possible one is underway, but I'm not sure.

[jaichind]

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/08/29/pentagon-stockpiles-uncomfortably-low-due-to-ukraine-arms-transfers-dod/

"Pentagon stockpiles ‘uncomfortably low’ due to Ukraine arms transfers: DoD"

It seems even the USA is getting concerned about how low their weapons stockpiles are getting.  All very good news for arms makers/dealers.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/30/ukraine-russia-himars-decoy-artillery/

"Ukraine lures Russian missiles with decoys of U.S. rocket system"

A story about Ukraine using dummy HIMARS to lure Russian attacks. 

I have no reason to believe this is or is not true. But if this is true and working why would Ukraine leak this to Western media ?  Back in WWII when German V-1 rockets started to hit the UK in 1944  it seems many actually missed the mark but the UK on purpose fed stories to the media and known German agents that the V-1 attacks were very effective and were causing massive damage to the UK to make sure the Germans do not discover and fix their V-1 accuracy problems.  It seems if this tactic is working it is critical Ukraine keep this a secret and not let Washington Post put it in a news article.

[jaichind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1564969689587007488

The same Russian source now says that Russians are attacking the Ukraine salient to contain and it seems to eventually cut it off


So far it looks a lot like the early breakthroughs in Operation Mars in late 1942 on the Eastern Front (which took place concurrently with the USSR Stalingrad counteroffensive.)  Most of the USSR salients were eventually driven back or cut off by Model's 9th Army.

[Hollywood]

I don't think the Russians are exaggerating the Ukrainian losses over the past two days, because we're starting to get some corroboration from photographs and videos.  The video below is a close-up showing a line of Ukrainian Land Vehicles and Infantry getting obliterated by Russian bombardments.  Soldiers are literally blasted off the ground, and several dozen are hit while hiding in trenches.  On Rumble, I viewed a couple of zoomed-out video showing several miles of Ukrainian Land Vehicles smoldering underneath clouds of smoke.  https://gettr.com/post/p1p0d3ef32b

In the past three days, I believe the Ukrainians have suffered massive casualties, probably exceeding 3 thousand men.  The front line looks absolutely horrifying.  Aside from battles in WW1-2 films, I've never seen anything like it in my life.  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't think the Russians are exaggerating the Ukrainian losses over the past two days, because we're starting to get some corroboration from photographs and videos.  The video below is a close-up showing a line of Ukrainian Land Vehicles and Infantry getting obliterated by Russian bombardments.  Soldiers are literally blasted off the ground, and several dozen are hit while hiding in trenches.  On Rumble, I viewed a couple of zoomed-out video showing several miles of Ukrainian Land Vehicles smoldering underneath clouds of smoke.  https://gettr.com/post/p1p0d3ef32b

In the past three days, I believe the Ukrainians have suffered massive casualties, probably exceeding 3 thousand men.  The front line looks absolutely horrifying.  Aside from battles in WW1-2 films, I've never seen anything like it in my life.  

People in this thread kept going after bilaps because he was pro-Putin (and, in some cases, because he was Serbian), but at least he knew better than to buy into this crap.

If there were 3k casualties on either side within 3 days, there'd probably be more visual evidence. And if there's one thing you can be certain about regarding the alleged offensive, it's that Russia will continue to exaggerate Ukrainian casualties.

[GoTfan]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Is-Quietly-Reselling-Its-Excess-Russian-LNG-To-Europe.html

"China Is Quietly Reselling Its Excess Russian LNG To Europe"

PRC getting in on the Russian gas resale to the EU markup game.

Translation: China is being two-faced while robbing Russia blind.

Which is pretty much what everyone with a passing knowledge of international relations predicted would happen. The Chinese don't think in terms of 2, 3, 4, or 5 years, they think in terms of 20, 30, 40, or 50 years.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Is-Quietly-Reselling-Its-Excess-Russian-LNG-To-Europe.html

"China Is Quietly Reselling Its Excess Russian LNG To Europe"

PRC getting in on the Russian gas resale to the EU markup game.

Translation: China is being two-faced while robbing Russia blind.

Which is pretty much what everyone with a passing knowledge of international relations predicted would happen. The Chinese don't think in terms of 2, 3, 4, or 5 years, they think in terms of 20, 30, 40, or 50 years.

Sometimes.

Other times - especially during the Xi Jinping premiership - they've done the opposite, such as doubling down on the zero COVID strategy. That's probably not part of any 50 year plan. Making a tidy profit on LNG sales also might be for short-term economic gain more than part of a long-term 20D chess geopolitical strategy.

[Hollywood]

I don't think the Russians are exaggerating the Ukrainian losses over the past two days, because we're starting to get some corroboration from photographs and videos.  The video below is a close-up showing a line of Ukrainian Land Vehicles and Infantry getting obliterated by Russian bombardments.  Soldiers are literally blasted off the ground, and several dozen are hit while hiding in trenches.  On Rumble, I viewed a couple of zoomed-out video showing several miles of Ukrainian Land Vehicles smoldering underneath clouds of smoke.  https://gettr.com/post/p1p0d3ef32b

In the past three days, I believe the Ukrainians have suffered massive casualties, probably exceeding 3 thousand men.  The front line looks absolutely horrifying.  Aside from battles in WW1-2 films, I've never seen anything like it in my life.  

People in this thread kept going after bilaps because he was pro-Putin (and, in some cases, because he was Serbian), but at least he knew better than to buy into this crap.

If there were 3k casualties on either side within 3 days, there'd be more visual evidence.

I'm not buying into anything.  In fact, I'm estimating more deaths than the Russians.  Based on what I've seen, it's my opinion that the Ukrainian death toll over the past three days has risen above 3k.

How do you know there would be more visual evidence?  It's not like it's easy to find videos from the battlefield, and US media is really only reporting disseminations from Ukrainian Government, which has been very little at this point.  Sometimes the Ukrainians suffers hundreds and thousands of casualties within a week, and the media doesn't report it.  The Ukrainians don't even report casualties. It's literally part of their strategy to keep their population supportive of the war by not bumming them out.   lol.

It actually really pisses me off that Pro-Ukrainian Crusaders in the US are absolutely fine with me criticizing the Russians for getting their butts kicked out of Kiev and Kherson, but then get all pissy when I post Ukrainian failures and casualties.  It's not like the Russian Advocates aren't a bunch of annoying A-Holes, but I can at least get a break from their POV on mainstream media.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't think the Russians are exaggerating the Ukrainian losses over the past two days, because we're starting to get some corroboration from photographs and videos.  The video below is a close-up showing a line of Ukrainian Land Vehicles and Infantry getting obliterated by Russian bombardments.  Soldiers are literally blasted off the ground, and several dozen are hit while hiding in trenches.  On Rumble, I viewed a couple of zoomed-out video showing several miles of Ukrainian Land Vehicles smoldering underneath clouds of smoke.  https://gettr.com/post/p1p0d3ef32b

In the past three days, I believe the Ukrainians have suffered massive casualties, probably exceeding 3 thousand men.  The front line looks absolutely horrifying.  Aside from battles in WW1-2 films, I've never seen anything like it in my life.  

People in this thread kept going after bilaps because he was pro-Putin (and, in some cases, because he was Serbian), but at least he knew better than to buy into this crap.

If there were 3k casualties on either side within 3 days, there'd be more visual evidence.

I'm not buying into anything.  In fact, I'm estimating more deaths than the Russians.  Based on what I've seen, it's my opinion that the Ukrainian death toll over the past three days has risen above 3k.

How do you know there would be more visual evidence?  It's not like it's easy to find videos from the battlefield, and US media is really only reporting disseminations from Ukrainian Government, which has been very little at this point.  Sometimes the Ukrainians suffers hundreds and thousands of casualties within a week, and the media doesn't report it.  The Ukrainians don't even report casualties. It's literally part of their strategy to keep their population supportive of the war by not bumming them out.   lol.

It actually really pisses me off that Pro-Ukrainian Crusaders in the US are absolutely fine with me criticizing the Russians for getting their butts kicked out of Kiev and Kherson, but then get all pissy when I post Ukrainian failures and casualties.  It's not like the Russian Advocates aren't a bunch of annoying A-Holes, but I can at least get a break from their POV on mainstream media.

Estimating more casualties than the Russians ignores that they've reliably overestimated enemy casualties since the start of the conflict, and effectively buys into their claim that they are responsible for 3k casualties. To a lesser extent, Ukraine has done this for Russian casualties - and in fact, some level overestimation of enemy casualties in public reports is basically a constant in warfare.

If you're relying on "U.S. media" to provide you with information, you're missing out on the bulk of primary sources, which report regardless of American wishes - open source stuff posted by local civilians, combatants with sh**tty OPSEC, military-oriented Telegram channels, etc. The kind of sources "U.S. media" often select from.

I can't say for certain there'd be more videos, but you'd learn something from following these. Even then, though, it'd be easy to make mistakes, because you'd be dealing with raw footage that might be faked or reposted, etc. You'd need to either increase media comprehension with respect to this kind of material and/or find a number of secondary sources (aggregators, usually) which trawl these primary sources and pull out select bits of reliable information which offer more detail than what you'd find in, say, a CNN or Fox report.

This is where analysts like Rob Lee and trackers like Oryxspioenkop come into play, and the latter registered the loss of <20 Ukrainian heavy weapons in the past 3 days, some of which are old losses and some of which are on other fronts. Obviously, they undershot to some extent, and the Ukrainian army seems to have tighter OPSEC than normal at the moment - but the Russians have been happy to release footage whenever it complements them (and they do get a lot of footage, thanks to their drones). If Ukraine had suffered 3000 casualties in an offensive which would presumably involve vehicles, it stands to reason that they'd lose a lot more heavy equipment than what we've seen. I actually expect more to emerge in the coming days, but if it was 3k+, I'd have expected more to have already arrived.

I'm not particularly optimistic about Ukrainian military prospects (although I mostly rely on the analyses I've read). What annoyed me about your post was the breathless hyperbole.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1565113141507268609

[NOVA Green]

Looks like another Russian Warehouse in Occupied Crimea (Likely an Oil Storage facility), ended up spontaneously combusting today.

Russian soldiers shouldn't be playing with fire near fuel storage and dropping light cigs on the ground and ignoring GHS "No Smoking" signage.

Social media posts verified by The Post show thick smoke from a warehouse fire in Russian-occupied Crimea on Aug. 31. No casualties have been reported in the fire that occurred just after 6 a.m. local time near train tracks in the Krasnogvardeyskoye settlement, according to Russian Emergency Situations Ministry. Ukrainian politician Oleksiy Honcharenko identified the building as an oil storage facility.

https://t.me/oleksiihoncharenko/24284?fbclid=IwAR0NCDXbghRBnbNKrDqJT4rvkC_9yEnvu49NDKE9-URgxCxK7AMX8W6CExk

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/31/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Could be Ukrainian Partisans, disgruntled Russian grunts, or simply yet another industrial incident with drunk Russian soldiers on Vodka not observing classic HAZCOM protocols.

Still if Ukrainian Partisans or disgruntled Russian conscripts, either way they might be "the only hell their momma ever raised" to paraphrase an American outlaw country artist Johnny Paycheck from the '70s.

Johnny and Merle live in one of the correctional institutions in Chillicothe, Ohio...

[NOVA Green]

Drunk Russian soldier stories are the gifts which continue giving...

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1564770568674877440?s=20&t=FM9AWxIc...

[Frodo]

If Russia loses in Ukraine, this will be one of the major reasons why:

https://twitter.com/usnews/status/1565138584956444672

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1565030257987620869

[CumbrianLefty]

I have to agree that map does look a bit......unusual.

[jaichind]

I have to agree that map does look a bit......unusual.

It is not totally absurd.  It is clear Ukraine wants to cut off the road that supplies the Russian forces in the town further to the North.  Ukraine has a clear manpower advantage so as long as they think they can rush in men and there are some natural over to mitigate Russian air and artillery advantage then it is worth the risk of being cut off to cut off the road early and then expanding the salient afterward.

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/russia-mulls-buying-70-billion-082031852.html

"Russia Mulls Big Purchases of ‘Friendly’ FX to Stem Ruble’s Rise"

Russia is considering a plan to buy as much as $70 billion in yuan and other “friendly” currencies this year to slow the ruble’s surge, before shifting to a longer-term strategy of selling its holdings of the Chinese currency to fund investment. 

RUB being too strong is finally becoming a problem for Russia

[Woody]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-soldiers-say-they-are-advancing-in-the-south-but-at-a-cost-11661983338

Ukrainian Soldiers Say They Are Advancing in the South, but at a Cost

“They’re throwing everything against us,” said a 22-year-old Ukrainian soldier who said Russians were fighting with artillery, tanks, helicopters and mortars. “They have a lot of equipment but few men.”

The soldiers and medics at a hospital in southern Ukraine agreed to speak on condition that their identities and location wouldn’t be revealed. All took part in the offensive that began Monday with the aim of seizing the initiative in the war.

Ukraine’s long-awaited thrust in the south is advancing into territory that the Russians occupied in the early days of their invasion, according to soldiers who took part in fighting. But it is a hard slog against a well-equipped enemy, they said.

He said the offensive started well for his unit, which seized a village from the Russians in the early hours of fighting.

But that same day, Monday, he wound up in hospital with a concussion after a teammate fired a rocket launcher a few steps from where he stood.

The head of the intensive-care unit where some of the soldiers were being treated said the military warned him of the offensive a week in advance, spurring hopes of imminent victories.

“But when they started bringing in such a large number of wounded, then, honestly, I felt sorry for them and I started wondering if this was worth doing at such a cost,” said the doctor. “I don’t know. There’s no right answer here.”

Ukrainian officials and military analysts have said that Ukrainian losses, even if the offensive is successful, could be high as they are assaulting an entrenched enemy with significant firepower that can quickly chew up troops.

Seems like a Kursk-scenairo

[Torie]

Drunk Russian soldier stories are the gifts which continue giving...

Here is a rather colorful line from the article:

"Earlier this month, Sky News quoted a local Ukrainian journalist in Kherson who told the outlet that in the suburbs of the city Russian soldiers parade around hammered, 'a bottle of alcohol in one hand, a machine gun in the other. '”

Some stereotypes never die. And don't drink and shoot.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1565234707587125250

[Meclazine for Israel]

Fell...or pushed.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-01/russian-oil-executive-ravil-maganov-dies/101397754

Apparently, he was opposed to the war in Ukraine from the outset.