Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a photo of the Virgin Putin being cucked by the Chad Biden.

[Storr]

Assaulting well entrenched positions (the Ukrainians have spent 8 years fortifying the front lines near Donetsk) with a 1:1 personnel ratio is not ideal.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1523778923997270016?s=20&t=g8Ot_Dx9BmlAzV...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Assaulting well entrenched positions (the Ukrainians have spent 8 years fortifying the front lines near Donetsk) with a 1:1 personnel ratio is not ideal.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1523778923997270016?s=20&t=g8Ot_Dx9BmlAzV...

It really is not at all surprising that Ukraine, since the very start of this war, has been holding out the best in the Donbass.

[NOVA Green]

The sinking of the Makarov wasn’t claimed by UkrMOD. Although there might have been some truth to the rumours that it was hit, the frigate is now back in action.

https://www.twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449

It also looks like Russia is determined to contest Snake Island, or at least project the intention to contest it. Why else would they put a landing craft next to a hot zone?

Had previously posted the same Tweet upthread, so thanks for boosting!

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8598524#msg8598524

Several caveats is that if you look through the comments is that:

1.) It might possibly be another Russian Class Frigate with a similar profile.

2.) We don't know the extent of damage (if any).

3.) We don't really know if it is heading back to port since this recent spotting or if active.

Meanwhile, going back to the whole "Snake Island" scene it is pretty clear regardless that this an extremely risky area for Russian Warships to be operating in, especially without Air Superiority as evidenced by the recent Ukrainian Jet Fighter Strikes against facilities on the Island a couple hours after TB2 drones caused at minimum massive damage to a Russian Landing / Supply vessel.

So if we look at more comprehensive angle when it comes to the most recent Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Naval Front, Sutton appears to be one of the hottest "New Kids On the Block".

Link below has all sorts of videos and additional comments, since was just providing a sample.

While the community was concentrated on confirming the rumors of the missile attacks on Russia’s Admiral Makarov frigate, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announced a TB2 drone assault on the Snake Island with footage via Twitter. According to the video, the drone targeted the Serna-class landing craft and engaged it while the craft was berthed at the port.

The video indicates that a TOR air defence system was aboard the landing craft during the bombardment, and the surface-to-air missile system was also destroyed. TB2 drones struck Strela short-range defence systems on the island on 03 May. The TOR system was likely to be transported to the island to bolster Snake Island’s air defence capabilities.

According to H. I. Sutton, a well-known OSINT analyst and regular contributor to Naval News, the smoke from the recent TB2 attack on Russian forces at Snake Island was still visible on a 09:07 UTC satellite image on 08 May. He also highlighted that two Raptor-class patrol boats had run away from the island. As Naval News reported, a TB2 Bayraktar drone destroyed two Raptor-class patrol boats a few days ago.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-serna-class-lcu-becomes-the-new-victim-of-tb2-drone/

Regardless, the last thing that Putin needs is yet another ship sunk and down to the bottom of the sea, since it's a lot harder to hide the loss of a naval vessel such as a Frigate than it is some random ground based units, choppers, or aircraft.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, when all is said and done, today was...a pretty normal Victory Day in Putin's Russia, without a ton going on other than a Ukrainian hack and the usual parafascist ancestor worship? That's about the most surprising way it possibly could have gone after the expectations and guesses that have been flying around. Maybe those threatened rail bombings actually spooked Putin; who knows?

[NOVA Green]

Badass.
"As 15-year-old Liza Chernichenko pressed on the gas pedal while frantically driving through the Donetsk region, she realized she had been shot in both legs, but with four others in the car, including two men bleeding profusely, she kept driving, even as Russian forces continued firing."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-escaping-war-1.6445840

Thanks TexasGurl for posting this!

Although I have previously helped cover many of the various war crimes and atrocities which Russia has committed in Ukraine, some of the stories which I have not covered is the extent to which Russian forces appear to have deliberately targeted civilian convoys with small arms, sniper fire, and even tank shells.

We have verifiable evidence of this as War Crimes investigations continue in areas outside of Kyiv, now that Russian forces have completely retreated, as well as many more recent incidents within Southern and Eastern Ukraine.

This appears to be a systematic pattern of either taking revenge upon civilian populations, or possibly a strategy of trying to encourage civilians not to leave and instead be absorbed into "Greater Russia"...

Still, this story reminded me of an old Northern Irish Folk Song from the early days of the Troubles (Late '60s and early '70s), about a Taxi Driver who would relocate civilian populations to safe neighborhoods in West Belfast, shortly after the assaults began by Unionist populations against the Northern Irish Civil Rights Movements which targeted Catholic populations in general.

First heard this song some time in late '80s and played it for a roomie in College who ended up becoming a cab driver.

Song speaks for itself, and I believe is topical in terms of the overlap of desperate civilians fleeing persecution and the risks involved just to make it a safe area.

[Woody]

As mentioned above, Ukrainians retaking land near Kharkiv. Russians are making more gains in the Izium front to it's west and east. Lyman is almost going to be surrounded by 3 sides.

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1523815517630443520?cxt=HHwWgMC5-fi...

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, when all is said and done, today was...a pretty normal Victory Day in Putin's Russia, without a ton going on other than a Ukrainian hack and the usual parafascist ancestor worship? That's about the most surprising way it possibly could have gone after the expectations and guesses that have been flying around. Maybe those threatened rail bombings actually spooked Putin; who knows?

Putin also seemed uncharacteristically humble, for his standards, when he apologized to Israel lately. Maybe the Lavrov scandal was finally intepreted as a warning sign by him that things are getting out of hand... one can only hope.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, when all is said and done, today was...a pretty normal Victory Day in Putin's Russia, without a ton going on other than a Ukrainian hack and the usual parafascist ancestor worship? That's about the most surprising way it possibly could have gone after the expectations and guesses that have been flying around. Maybe those threatened rail bombings actually spooked Putin; who knows?

Putin also seemed uncharacteristically humble, for his standards, when he apologized to Israel lately. Maybe the Lavrov scandal was finally interpreted as a warning sign by him that things are getting out of hand... one can only hope.

The whole "Hitler had Jewish relatives" thing was likely so phenomenally stupid and, more importantly, a self-forced error, that Putin himself felt a need to set things straight. It's not good strategy to just alienate all the neutrals...
In general, Putin is surpassing the bar for foreign policy competence that Nicholas II set (not a big feat, I know - the Russo-Japanese War being a case in point).

[Storr]

As mentioned above, Ukrainians retaking land near Kharkiv. Russians are making more gains in the Izium front to it's west and east. Lyman is almost going to be surrounded by 3 sides.

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1523815517630443520?cxt=HHwWgMC5-fi...

Rus'ka Lozova, population 5,016, is along the black line (which is the E 105/M 20 highway) going north from Kharkiv to the Russian border. Wikipedia has been updated, claiming that Ukraine captured the town on May 8th. The bridge in the tweet below was the one crossing the Lozoven'ka River.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524006059110715393?s=20&t=UYtTrQlRmudV...

wikipedia list of town/city control in the war (I just discovered this list yesterday): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_of_cities_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Google street view from July 2015 at the same location as the video:
https://tinyurl.com/5b46jtkb

[Storr]

Macronsplaining:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1524020571729797121?s=20&t=hom4H880...

Ironically by stating the West shouldn't embarrass Putin, Macron embarrassed Putin by implying Russia is in a position to get embarrassed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

[Storr]

+1 MSTA-S 2S19 self-propelled howitzer for the tractor brigade. I'm guessing it was probably recovered in Kharkiv Oblast.

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1524072450241318912?s=20&t=wjiqhi_AHa_JmbV3...

[NOVA Green]

Some unusual activity reported early today off the coast of Crimea.

https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1524031727441793024?s=20&t=7q07tda8Vo9Kg0...

[Omega21]

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

Probably won't.

It would be an early Christmas present for Putin. "NATO is invading through their Banderovite proxies, we must mobilize, etc."

Probably wouldn't result in nukes, but he could use a few FOABs.

All in all, I don't think we should even be considering this avenue. UA has swaths of its territories under occupation, that will always take priority.

[Woody]

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

Remember the Chechen Wars? Dozens of raids/terrorist acts in Russia (Nord-Ost, Nazran raid, Budyonnovsk hospital, Beslan, airport bombings, etc..) Nothing but more to stoke up the Kremlin and it's TV campaign.

[Storr]

The first President of post-Soviet Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk has died at age 88. RIP FF

He lost reelection in 1994 to Leonid Kuchma in a runoff 52.3% to 45.2%. The main factors were due to the absolutely dreadful economic situation in the country and Kuchma's strength in the Russian speaking regions of the South and East (Kuchma's from Dnipro, Kravchuk was from Velykyi Zhytyn in the western part of Ukraine which belonged to prewar Poland). It was the first election to show the sharp east-west divide in country.



1994 AP story about the election:

[Logical]

If there is one thing you can count Capitol Hill on doing, it's marking up defence spending.This time it's good though.
https://twitter.com/connorobrienNH/status/1524101687652270082
https://mobile.twitter.com/connorobrienNH/status/1524115444105641984

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

Probably won't.

It would be an early Christmas present for Putin. "NATO is invading through their Banderovite proxies, we must mobilize, etc."

Probably wouldn't result in nukes, but he could use a few FOABs.

All in all, I don't think we should even be considering this avenue. UA has swaths of its territories under occupation, that will always take priority.

Anyone outside of Russia who would be outraged at Ukraine striking back is already stooging for them or too dumb to take seriously, and Russian opinion as far as I can tell is already strong and or controlled enough the Putin can do what he likes.

It’s probably not a realistic priority, but let’s not pretend it would be an escalation. As far as Ukraine’s concerned they’ve already fully escalated.

[Person Man]

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

Remember the Chechen Wars? Dozens of raids/terrorist acts in Russia (Nord-Ost, Nazran raid, Budyonnovsk hospital, Beslan, airport bombings, etc..) Nothing but more to stoke up the Kremlin and it's TV campaign.

We are not at that point where Ukrainians are relying on asymmetrical warfare and yet and that is what we might have to do if the front completely collapses. That's very unlikely to happen. What would be nice is would be to occupy a few Russian towns for leverage and its too soon for that too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/niktwick/status/1524098684413227008

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow Estonia and Latvia are based! Tender Branson should be disappointed though.

[Mopsus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

I don’t see what they would gain by sending troops into Russian territory while so much of their country is still Russian-occupied, but they should definitely use artillery and drones to (continue to?) strike at strategic targets within Russian territory.

[Storr]

I guess the Russians are regrouping, again.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1524113813024690176?s=20&t=lmUJh4AWr4mEvH...