Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Alben Barkley]

Wikipedia is calling the Battle of Kyiv over with a Ukrainian victory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022)

[NOVA Green]

So, Washington Post story from live within Donbas worth a read...

KHRESTYSHCHE, UKRAINE — This town is slowly fading away. Most residents have fled after nearly a decade of bloody conflict since Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Ukrainian provinces took up arms against the Ukrainian state. One morning this week, a half dozen elderly women, some of the remaining 1,500 residents in town, huddled outside the only church in the village.

They were nervous. Here on the most hotly contested front line of the conflict, Russian airstrikes have drawn closer and the din of war grows louder. The incessant thud of artillery striking a village 10 miles away, echoed through the valley below, interrupting their prayer. “We don’t know who, or what is being fired at,” said 65-year-old Valentina, who said she was too afraid to give her last name.

...

Washington Post journalists spent two days this week traveling the region, approaching within six miles of advancing Russian military units. They interviewed Ukrainian military commanders and soldiers, local officials in towns under increasing pressure from Russian bombardments and terrified civilians whose ravaged homes, schools, churches and businesses are suddenly on the front lines of a war that is drawing ever closer.

...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/02/eastern-ukraine-frontline-scene/

[pppolitics]

The pictures from Bucha are not only horrendous, no, Russian Armed Forces once again outdid themselves in their stupidity. Do they believe this makes Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian towns more likely to surrender in the future? If you're probably dead either way you might just as well fight to the last man. Good luck with that, Putin. Russian Army may think what worked in Chechnya will work in Ukraine too. Then again, Cechnya wasn't a country of 40 million people that is being supplied by NATO with Stinger missiles.

Actually, you probably improve your odds of survival by fighting if the alternative is genocide.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

After one pregnant woman at the Mariupol hospital miscarried and died, the other has now been put on camera in either Donetsk or Russia. Claims that she was faking it are now conveniently shelved, replaced by new propaganda:

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1510248172026830849

N.B. I don't like using Van Linge as a source but he's where I found it first. Credit where credit is due.

[NOVA Green]

Human Rights Watch is now saying they have collected evidence of a war crime in Bucha on March 4th 2022.

he rights group Human Rights Watch said it has collected evidence of a war crime in this Ukrainian city where Russian troops recently withdrew as Moscow shifted its military operations to Ukraine’s east.

Human Rights Watch said it has interviewed a woman who witnessed Russian troops round up five men and shoot one of them in the back of the head, killing him.

“We have documented an unmistakable case of summary execution by Russian Federation forces in Bucha on March 4,” a Human Rights Watch spokeswoman said.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-01/card/rights-group-alleges-war-crime-by-russian-troops-in-ukrainian-city-WQ3oqu70esXMpkO3ob3N

[Logical]

This certainly feels like a turning point for the war. The people of Ukraine demands blood, it's very difficult to imagine them agreeing to concessions right now. Western arms supply will only increase, the US have announced that they will be facilitating the transfer of tanks and other fighting vehicles today, I dare hope that MiGs are next. This war will not end until one side is completely victorious.

On a personal note I used to feel sorry for Russian soldiers but now, upon seeing the horrors they wrought upon innocent civilians, I feel nothing but joy when seeing pictures of destroyed and burnt out Russian columns. Does this make me a HP? Maybe. War is hell.

[Alben Barkley]

Literal Nazi stuff now. Or hell, just the Red Army marching through villages murdering every civilian man and raping every civilian woman.

F--k Russia.

[DaleCooper]

Some extremely upsetting imagery is coming out of the recently liberated suburbs of Kyiv. A lot of civilians - mostly men but some women and children as well - killed in apparent executions. Some of the dead are just scattered across roadways and sidewalks while others appear to have been partially buried in mass graves. Given the scale, it's difficult to imagine that this is just random wanton violence. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian troops were under order to kill all 'fighting age' men regardless of whether they took up arms or not. Whatever the reason, I think this makes any sort of negotiated settlement less likely in the short-term as Ukrainians will (understandably) harden their resolve.

Putin can’t stay in power after this is over

Ideally (and of course this won't happen, but it should) Putin and every single one of his high ranking military and political officials, as well as his propagandists, will be executed once this is over. Obviously Russians will stampede towards the nearest strongman dictator after Putin is gone but it would at least be nice if their new false god isn't a holdover from the previous abomination like Putin was from the Soviet Union.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1510340727489892357?cxt=HHwWisC4_fa45_U...

But compucomp said Putin was justified because apparently all 2.6 billion people in China and India support him.

It's time for NATO to send in armored cars, tanks, anti ship missiles, helicopters and fighter jets. Sending in offensive weapons is the only way to prevent a genocide.

Anything that Ukraine asks for, NATO and the EU should give.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, in the usually relatively stoic style of presentation from the UK's MoD in their latest brief assessment focuses on the power of Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1510372225391730688?s=20&t=Xyd8qGW3Inpv...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there might have been some Civilian leaders executed by Russian soldiers around Kyiv as well...

Among the dead were reportedly Olha Sukhenko, the head of the village Motyzhin, and her entire family, all of whom were taken by Russian troops on 25 March.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/02/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russian-troop-withdrawal-noticeable-says-zelenskiy-us-gives-kyiv-300m-more-in-live

[NOVA Green]

Really good read from The Guardian (No paywall but donations recommended) about why the Russian Army is significantly underperforming expectations.

Really good take on how shifts within the Russian Military structure and why despite the "modernization" of the Russian military they are still falling way short of what even most professional analysists had assessed prior to the 2022 Invasion of Ukraine.

Huge article and well worth a read but here's the lead in to a much more extensive and detailed article.

Uniforms are one of the most deceptive trappings of military culture. They suggest uniformity but it is often said of the British army that if two officers look the same, one must be improperly dressed. Armies, and especially professional armies, are more often warring tribes of subcultures, and for commanders it is critical to understand how those cultures interact if the force is to be employed effectively in battle.

When it comes to Russian military culture, the Russian army has been through a period of significant change, with constant modernisation since 2008. The Soviet Union fielded an army of more than 3.5 million soldiers in 1991. The Soviet army was largely a conscript force and lacked an experienced noncommissioned officer corps. This meant that Soviet units had to be treated with a degree of uniformity, since the personnel rotated so frequently that most line units were necessarily commanded using set formulas that formed the basis for unit training.

Conscript David Arutyunyan, 18, the youngest Russian soldier known to have died in Ukraine. Photograph: Social Media/east2west news
Today’s Russian military is much smaller with about 1 million personnel across all services. For the army, conscripts today make up only about 35% of the force. The high proportion of contract soldiers should produce a more distinct unit culture. This is reinforced by how units have been fighting. Among Russia’s higher-readiness forces, the wars in Ukraine and Syria have seen fighting being conducted primarily at the level of the company group, producing units with contract troops who have fought together, but rarely in large formations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/02/friendly-fire-blunders-confusion-low-morale-why-russias-army-has-stalled

[Mopsus]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1510340727489892357?cxt=HHwWisC4_fa45_U...

But compucomp said Putin was justified because apparently all 2.6 billion people in China and India support him.

It's time for NATO to send in armored cars, tanks, anti ship missiles, helicopters and fighter jets. Sending in offensive weapons is the only way to prevent a genocide.

Anything that Ukraine asks for, NATO and the EU should give.

Surely there are thousands of well-trained and well-armed Polish and Finnish troops itching to take their shot at Putin’s army. Let them all go to Ukraine, and let them have as much equipment as they can carry, drive, and fly.

[walleye26]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

[NOVA Green]

Institute for The Study of War Update 4/2/22:

Much more details but these are the daily highlights.

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely require some time to redeploy and integrate reinforcements from other axes. Ukrainian forces repelled likely large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas on April 2 and inflicted heavy casualties. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol and will likely capture the city in the coming days. Russian units around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine continued to successfully withdraw into Belarus and Russia, and heavy mining in previously Russian-occupied areas is forcing Ukrainian forces to conduct slow clearing operations.

However, the Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine for redeployment to eastern Ukraine are heavily damaged. Russian forces likely require an extensive operational pause to refit existing units in Donbas, refit and redeploy reinforcements from other axes, and integrate these forces—pulled from several military districts that have not yet operated on a single axis—into a cohesive fighting force. We have observed no indicators of Russian plans to carry out such a pause, and Russian forces will likely fail to break through Ukrainian defenses if they continue to steadily funnel already damaged units into fighting in eastern Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-2

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1510395999302389764

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don’t see how Zelensky can agree to any peace treaty with Russia that results in giving up land or not having Putin and his commanders being placed on trial for crimes against humanity

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1510395999302389764

Just when mud season is in full swing. Either Putin knows his military can't take more than another month of fighting and he's high on copium; or he's really, really dumb.

Also, he seems to be under the impression that damaged units can be instantly healed by throwing gold at them, like in Civ. It doesn't work that way.

I don’t see how Zelensky can agree to any peace treaty with Russia that results in giving up land or Putin and his commanders being placed on trial for crimes against humanity

I think you mean not placed on trial?

Anyway, as much as we'd like to hope the war ends with a coup in the Kremlin, the reality is that such a coup would have to be led by someone more ruthless than Putin, meaning it's almost impossible he wouldn't also be implicated in war crimes. I think the best reasonable scenario would be if Russia was defeated like Iraq in Desert Storm, and Putin became like Saddam post-1991. Russia would be completely pushed out of Ukraine and other post-Soviet conflict zones, with its military and economy in ruins; but the leader is ever more ruthless and secure in power, in large part because no one really wants to see him fall. And, since Saddam only fell because of a US invasion, I wouldn't bet on any Russians ever facing war crime trials.

[fluffypanther19]

the images from bucha are horrifying. ukraine must win or they will face extermination; politically, culturally, and literally. i just cant right now. we are supposed to be beyond this. we need to arm ukraine with whatever they need and quickly. i hope our ukrainian poster who joined the territorial defenses is ok.

[Person Man]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Exactly. If a direct intervention leads to WW3, wouldn’t we be glad that a country like Russia no longer exists?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Exactly. If a direct intervention leads to WW3, wouldn’t we be glad that a country like Russia no longer exists?

There is absolutely zero scenarios in which Russia 'no longer exists' but the rest of the world remains a pleasant place to live.

[sting in the rafters]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff, a group hand-picked by and sworn personal loyalty to Putin to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

Reiterating. The facts on the ground have changed in the past month, the basic questions haven't. Personally unlike most of Atlas I quite enjoy being alive. Thus, an >80% of genocide is preferable to the 1-2% chance of a mass extinction event.

[Former President tack50]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Exactly. If a direct intervention leads to WW3, wouldn’t we be glad that a country like Russia no longer exists?

The issue with that is that the US (and Germany, Spain, France and basically every western country) will no longer exist too. If you want to live in Fallout World, well I guess that's your choice, and tbh if it's ever been justified it's now. But it is not a sacrifice I am willing to make.

I will say that if Russia did not have nukes I would 100% be in favour of an intervention though. But is it worth the high risk of the literal Apocalypse?

[CumbrianLefty]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Exactly. If a direct intervention leads to WW3, wouldn’t we be glad that a country like Russia no longer exists?

There is absolutely zero scenarios in which Russia 'no longer exists' but the rest of the world remains a pleasant place to live.

Yes, global nuclear war would still be worse than the very worst that the Russians could do.

Some hot heads on here may be forgetting this fundamental truth this morning - and tbf it is easy to understand that - but thankfully our leaders remain more realistic on this.

[Torrain]

Ah so we are seeing it get closer and closer to the Holocaust. Wonder how much more the doves can stomach. There was no red line, they prefer appeasement at all costs.

I don’t think it’s too dovish to prefer waging a bloodless economic war on Russia, rather than send NATO troops into Ukraine, and risk a nuclear holocaust, that would kill almost every soul in Ukraine, as well as countless civilian lives across the world.

As several posters above have said - it’s understandable to be absolutely enraged by this - I’d be more worried if you weren’t (*cough* compucomp). I’ll confess where there are some days I want NATO planes to fly over the border and destroy as much Russian equipment in UA as possible. But in the current world order, that’s just not an adult or acceptable move. Escalation is a dangerous game, and not one the West is willing to play with Putin.

All we can do now is cut off trade with Russia, shame our allies who haven’t, and try to starve their economy, to show the Russian pubic just how much anger and disdain we have for their autocratic leaders. And do all of this in the hopes that new hands take the reins in the Kremlin sooner rather than later. (Although any Putin replacement could be just as vile. There’s not Boris Yeltsin waiting in the wings this time - just oligarchs and war criminals).