Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

So the Russia Army has literally been decimated.

9861 is 1% of the entire Russian armed forces (excluding reserves). Combined with the injured number, that's 2.5% of Russia's manpower out of action. If true, I can see why the Russians are bringing in troops from all over (the Far East, South Ossetia, more Chechens, etc.). It also explains why that Black Sea Fleet deputy commander was in Mariupol: they're having to use naval infantry in urban warfare...which isn't ideal.

Is there any more evidence that the replacements will fight with any more elan than those whom they replaced? That excellent Atlantic article linked above says half of the equipment captured is destroyed -  and half is in good condition, which means surrender or abandonment. The Russian military so far seems good pressing buttons to shoot off missiles from afar in Russia (where they are safe from capture or abandonment), and shooting at civilians, but not much else. Putin keeps doubling down though. That's the really frightening part.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1505863194073616386

[Hindsight was 2020]

And also a reminder that Russia has suffered these causalities without a major urban fight yet

Tbf Mariupol is a major urban fight with a lot of men on both sides fighting for a city of 500,000

Oh shoot I forgot there is actual fight on Mariupol, but the greater point stands

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

So the Russia Army has literally been decimated.

9861 is 1% of the entire Russian armed forces (excluding reserves). Combined with the injured number, that's 2.5% of Russia's manpower out of action. If true, I can see why the Russians are bringing in troops from all over (the Far East, South Ossetia, more Chechens, etc.). It also explains why that Black Sea Fleet deputy commander was in Mariupol: they're having to use naval infantry in urban warfare...which isn't ideal.

Is there any more evidence that the replacements will fight with any more elan than those whom they replaced? That excellent Atlantic article linked above says half of the equipment captured is destroyed -  and half is in good condition, which means surrender or abandonment. The Russian military so far seems good pressing buttons to shot off missiles from afar in Russia (where they are safe from capture or abandonment), and shooting at civilians, but not much else. Putin keeps doubling down though. That's the really frightening part.

If so much equipment is being abandoned by adults, I can only imagine more will be abandoned by 17 year olds. You don't "involve" members of your "all-Russian children-youth military-patriotic movement" in your "special military operation" unless it's going very poorly.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505955060408324103?s=20&t=9qj3TS...

[pppolitics]

A US senator took notice.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1506020163254071296

[pppolitics]

Now this is strange

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506005447106613251

[Storr]

Now this is strange

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506005447106613251

Maybe Russia is running low on guided missiles? A weapons storage facility is kind of like ship on land when you think about it while drunk on vodka.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1505991365217628160?cxt=HHwWgMDR6dzKre...

Ukrainians sure are motivated. Maybe the best moden equivalent would be the Israelis in the four Arab-Israeli wars.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505955060408324103?s=20&t=9qj3TS...

For comparison's sake, Stalin didn't conscript teenagers into the Red Army until 1943, two years after Operation Barbarossa brought the Soviet Union into the Second World War.  And even then they were only sent to rear units or to replace those that were transferred from other parts of the Soviet Union to fight the Germans -and not into combat.  

[Storr]

Twitter translation:

"Everything you need to know about "denazification" from the Russians.

 As a result of Russian shelling in the Toretsk community, the mass grave of soldiers who died in battles with the Nazis was damaged.

In the Donetsk region, four monuments of World War II have suffered from Russian shelling."

https://twitter.com/Pavlo_Kyrylenko/status/1505907546825056258?s=20&t=KMyoL3...

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

So the Russia Army has literally been decimated.

9861 is 1% of the entire Russian armed forces (excluding reserves). Combined with the injured number, that's 2.5% of Russia's manpower out of action. If true, I can see why the Russians are bringing in troops from all over (the Far East, South Ossetia, more Chechens, etc.). It also explains why that Black Sea Fleet deputy commander was in Mariupol: they're having to use naval infantry in urban warfare...which isn't ideal.

Is there any more evidence that the replacements will fight with any more elan than those whom they replaced? That excellent Atlantic article linked above says half of the equipment captured is destroyed -  and half is in good condition, which means surrender or abandonment. The Russian military so far seems good pressing buttons to shot off missiles from afar in Russia (where they are safe from capture or abandonment), and shooting at civilians, but not much else. Putin keeps doubling down though. That's the really frightening part.

If so much equipment is being abandoned by adults, I can only imagine more will be abandoned by 17 year olds. You don't "involve" members of your "all-Russian children-youth military-patriotic movement" in your "special military operation" unless it's going very poorly.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505955060408324103?s=20&t=9qj3TS...

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

[WMS]

Manipulation of Global Opinion; or, Why compucomp and Red Fascist are Totally Wrong About Developing World Support for Russia

https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800?s=21

Read the entire thread.

Just a refresher.

[Frodo]

Is there any more evidence that the replacements will fight with any more elan than those whom they replaced? That excellent Atlantic article linked above says half of the equipment captured is destroyed -  and half is in good condition, which means surrender or abandonment. The Russian military so far seems good pressing buttons to shoot off missiles from afar in Russia (where they are safe from capture or abandonment), and shooting at civilians, but not much else. Putin keeps doubling down though. That's the really frightening part.

Interesting that you should mention that:

https://twitter.com/irinatsukerman_/status/1505978477530468360

[jojoju1998]

All the hyper miltaristic parades on youtube, that Russia does every year seems to be a facade.

Their military is crap.

Hell Ukraine is dominating in the social media wars even, they have memes on Twitter for goodness sakes. And Zelensky is a pop star on Tik Tok.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Don’t think these have been mentioned yet…

https://twitter.com/terrelljstarr/status/1505662406499971074?s=21
As mentioned in that thread what exactly do people think the Wagner Group is?

https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/1505753091655835649?s=21
Ah, there’s that false flag everyone knew Russia was preparing…

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1505844236259844096?s=21
…to justify what they’re preparing to do.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1505734086106632192?s=21
Note the parallels.

https://twitter.com/ericshe11350341/status/1505674066283409412?s=21
Here’s another horrible Ukrainian Neo-Nazi according to the propaganda certain posters claim is both true and a reflection of world opinion.

https://twitter.com/billkristol/status/1505875697079836676?s=21
About said propaganda…

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1505504040347742214?s=21
About those Ukrainians kidnapped to Russia…

https://twitter.com/natsechobbyist/status/1505534739754754053?s=21
10 million refugees. UNHCR High Commissioner numbers, not from Ukrainian government.

https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547?s=21
Russia threatens Poland now, in case you missed it.

https://twitter.com/benjancewicz/status/1505381376320847873?s=21
Just look at that traitor to Russia!

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1505642632168550400?s=21
The Glorious Actions of the Anti-Western Liberation Forces!

https://twitter.com/zhizhuweb/status/1504220833719455745?s=21
If anyone is still defending Russia on “both sides” or “what about” or “but muh Soviet support for this or that liberation group” grounds after reading this, go fuck off and die.

Anyone who is accepting or trying to justify  what Putin is doing needs Jesus Christ.

Too many Twitter stories in the same post brah. It makes reading the thread on a phone near impossible.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506028136139575302

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506028136139575302

If I had to guess, I would think the traffic jams actually have something to do with it. When the front of a 20 miles convoy isn’t moving the Chief of Ops or whoever gets to go up front to yell, wave his hands, and generally look very important trying to untangle everything in range of enemy snipers.

[Storr]

This is really sad.

Dima is frequently used for Dimitry.
https://twitter.com/Blonde_sarcasm/status/1506028474632450052?s=20&t=f7xQXrd...

[OSR stands with Israel]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 2,6014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

You may correct that comma? Anyway, I skeptical the number is actually this high, though they certainly lost way more than the US did in 18 years in Iraq. A massive failure for a so-called "superpower".

Keep in mind the US and Russia militaries operate very very different tactically . The US military before focuses on doing these 3 things :

1. Taking complete control of the skies

2. using air power to destroy communication systems of the opposing military

3. Destroying other military infrastructure important for logistics


The US accomplished the first in day 1 of OIF and the other two simultaneously in the first ten or so days of the invasion. By the time the US got to Baghdad much of the Iraqi military didn’t even know the US had reached Baghdad which  made taking it much easier .


The Russian military strategy in the other hand is based on trying to break the other side’s will to fight which :

1. Is far more immoral

2. Also is far more deadlier for your own military



Just compare this to the Russian invasion :

 

[Torie]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

You get an A+ for that synopses, and I stand in awe. You are not just a pretty face now are you?

Seriously you did what I could not do very well, as I struggled. You cut through the vertigo to see what was in the eye of the hurricane of the guy's mind, and did it with an economy of words, as only a sharp mind with excellent  writing skills can do.  Kudos.

[Hindsight was 2020]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

The only problem with the war of attrition point is I don’t see how Putin can politically pull it off. I know he dominates the news waves in Russia but I don’t see how forced conscription or seizing private business for the war effort when the country is teetering on economic collapse doesn’t see pushback on the home front

[jojoju1998]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 2,6014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

You may correct that comma? Anyway, I skeptical the number is actually this high, though they certainly lost way more than the US did in 18 years in Iraq. A massive failure for a so-called "superpower".

Keep in mind the US and Russia militaries operate very very different tactically . The US military before focuses on doing these 3 things :

1. Taking complete control of the skies

2. using air power to destroy communication systems of the opposing military

3. Destroying other military infrastructure important for logistics


The US accomplished the first in day 1 of OIF and the other two simultaneously in the first ten or so days of the invasion. By the time the US got to Baghdad much of the Iraqi military didn’t even know the US had reached Baghdad which  made taking it much easier .


The Russian military strategy in the other hand is based on trying to break the other side’s will to fight which :

1. Is far more immoral

2. Also is far more deadlier for your own military



Just compare this to the Russian invasion :

 

The Russian Army is stuck in the 1940s. Their tactics assume that everything is like WW2 where dramatic battles are the norm.

[Silent Hunter]

History never repeats, but it rhymes.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

So the Russia Army has literally been decimated.

9861 is 1% of the entire Russian armed forces (excluding reserves). Combined with the injured number, that's 2.5% of Russia's manpower out of action. If true, I can see why the Russians are bringing in troops from all over (the Far East, South Ossetia, more Chechens, etc.). It also explains why that Black Sea Fleet deputy commander was in Mariupol: they're having to use naval infantry in urban warfare...which isn't ideal.

Is there any more evidence that the replacements will fight with any more elan than those whom they replaced? That excellent Atlantic article linked above says half of the equipment captured is destroyed -  and half is in good condition, which means surrender or abandonment. The Russian military so far seems good pressing buttons to shot off missiles from afar in Russia (where they are safe from capture or abandonment), and shooting at civilians, but not much else. Putin keeps doubling down though. That's the really frightening part.

If so much equipment is being abandoned by adults, I can only imagine more will be abandoned by 17 year olds. You don't "involve" members of your "all-Russian children-youth military-patriotic movement" in your "special military operation" unless it's going very poorly.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505955060408324103?s=20&t=9qj3TS...

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

He can mobilize the whole nation, but how many can get to Ukraine? So far, it’s pretty clear they can’t feed, fuel, and equip the forces already in country. And those forces are clearly inadequate for the job.
Ukraine may simply be too big relative to Russia for attritional warfare to work in this case. It would mean just running the same not quite big enough force into a brick wall hoping Ukraine runs out of bodies first, but remember Ukraine is not Georgia or Finland, it’s small but no so much smaller that that is necessarily a realistic option. As long as Western supply lines remain open to Ukraine and Russia remains isolated, I think it’s more likely Russia runs out of munitions than Ukraine runs out of soldiers.