Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

The LPR is really out here with steel helmets and bolt action Mosin-Nagants using pieces of rope as slings.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505753809317937159?s=20&t=YSojx50OHu1...

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Germany sending more ancient GDR garbage.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505646760055689219?s=20&t=hxjUowwFa3O...

outdated is better than nothing I guess?

[pppolitics]

We should test our latest weapons on Russian troops in Ukraine.

Putin won't say anything because he's trying to keep the number of dead Russians a secret.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is wild:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1505642779795283968

It's essentially the same around here up to the point that I ended up in an annoying debate on Ukraine with an anti-vaxxer a couple of weeks back. It was during a card game and the debate was initiated by him, after I had casually mentioned having been at a pro-Ukraine rally the same day. This is when he interrupted the game and started a somewhat lengthy lecture about what he read on Ukraine in Telegram channels or something. Since then I suppose I'm far easier triggered by similar opinions.

I don't think it has necessarily something to do with being "pro-authoritarian" though. Being anti-vaccination and being pro-Putin both means that you're "challenging the mainstream narratives", up the the point that you're buying into inane conspiracy theories, and for some people  challenging the mainstream narratives has become the default option irrespective of the topic. I guess it's an expression of a general distrust in the institutions and is of course strongly connected to the Dunning-Kruger effect.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany sending more ancient GDR garbage.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505646760055689219?s=20&t=hxjUowwFa3O...

outdated is better than nothing I guess?

As I mentioned before, Germany first send the good stuff (Stingers etc.) to Ukraine. After Germany ran out of the good stuff, it resorted to outdated East German army surplus. And since even these supplies are apparenrly exhausted now, the government is looking at buying fresh supplies from arms companies to send to Ukraine. Of course, the existing stock was somewhat limited to begin with, but that's a problem unrelated to Ukraine.

[Pericles]

26% of 10% is not really a significant demographic though.

[CumbrianLefty]

26% of 10% is not really a significant demographic though.

They are extremely loud, especially on social media.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The media is getting tired of the Ukraine War in Australia. And it's getting pretty generic:

Start.

The Russians bombed a:

(a) Theatre
(b) School
(c) Church

Add voice of Ukrainian person talking. Add a Western journalist talking.

End.

Today's report in Australia was of a bombing event in Kiev with no victims.

The media is waiting for a specific event to occur. If it doesn't occur, they report it as not occurring.

We are not getting any proper news. We are just getting someone's opinion written into a pre-existing template. Then put on Twitter and it is then pasted with more opinions.

Does anyone have any news websites they prefer for the actual details of events rather than generic propaganda and opinion?

The best I found was DW.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Slovakia has confirmed the Dutch and German deployment of Patriot missiles (for 6 months) is an insufficient replacement for their S-300. The US has said that negotiations are ongoing, but the deal looks to be in a bad place.

Aside from Greece (which has stated its Osa and Tor systems are also necessary for its defence), there has been no mention of transferring the weaker systems. It looks like no one is willing to part with them for whatever Western Europe and the USA are currently offering as replacement.

Bulgaria has also ruled out transfer of any air defence systems "at this time", and claims no one has asked. This makes sense because the country hasn't transferred any other military aid, the PM is dependent on at least one party that is against sending any and pressure on Bulgaria is understandably minimal so long as other, more hawkish countries fail to transfer their systems.

The US has, apparently, informally raised the prospect of Turkey transferring its S-400s, and members of Congress have publicly signal boosted this. This might not be a good idea in principle and is a much, much heavier lift than anything else floated so far. It's almost certain they're not willing to pay Turkey's hypothetical price if they can't even pay whatever Slovakia's is for its one battery of S-300 launchers.

This is the MiG deal 2.0. There's an outside chance Czechia has sent some Strela-10 and Kub systems to Ukraine as part of its confidential package of military aid, but this is unlikely given the (in)actions of its neighbours. It looks like longer-range AA isn't coming, at least until there is another escalation. The West gets some credit for sending it anyway - engagement with the stories about it already being sent or on the way is much higher than that with the follow-up pieces explaining that it wasn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if we soon hear from the Pentagon that enough MANPADS will compensate for the lack of these systems.

[BlueSwan]

The media is getting tired of the Ukraine War in Australia. And it's getting pretty generic:

Start.

The Russians bombed a:

(a) Theatre
(b) School
(c) Church

Add voice of Ukrainian person talking. Add a Western journalist talking.

End.

Today's report in Australia was of a bombing event in Kiev with no victims.

The media is waiting for a specific event to occur. If it doesn't occur, they report it as not occurring.

We are not getting any proper news. We are just getting someone's opinion written into a pre-existing template. Then put on Twitter and it is then pasted with more opinions.

Does anyone have any news websites they prefer for the actual details of events rather than generic propaganda and opinion?

The best I found was DW.

There's a very real possibility that this will be a looong drawn out process with something approaching a military stalemate where only Europe will maintain interest in what is going on.

[Torie]

Thomas Friedman prognosticates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/opinion/putin-zelensky-ukraine.html

1. The plan A's of Biden (Biden = NATO/EU), Zenensky and Putin did not work out well for Putin. Biden's sanctions really did bite, Zelensky stalemated the ground war, and Putin's lightening strike victory with lots of Quislings was a fail

2. Putin's plan B was to attack civilians, cause a mass refugee crisis, have them flood NATO counties, and force NATO to pressure Zelensky to give Putin a huge pound of flesh.

Friedman does not say how plan B is working out for Putin, but the NYT says the refugees in Europe are being flooded with job offers, and they have a big labor shortage. So that aspect of the plan strikes me as a massive fail. I also don't see Zelensky handing Putin the keys to the store due to turning his attention to taking out civilians rather than acquiring real estate.

If Putin's Plan B proves a fail, Plan C is for Putin to attack supply areas for Ukraine in Poland, and plan D is to launch chemical weapons and nukes. I don't believe it. If Putin bombs Poland, the chemical weapons and nukes will be hitting NATO troops in Ukraine, and ...  stop, I just don't think Putin is that nuts.

But my opinion is worth what you paid for it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Thomas Friedman prognosticates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/opinion/putin-zelensky-ukraine.html

1. The plan A's of Biden (Biden = NATO/EU), Zenensky and Putin did not work out well for Putin. Biden's sanctions really did bite, Zelensky stalemated the ground war, and Putin's lightening strike victory with lots of Quislings was a fail

2. Putin's plan B was to attack civilians, cause a mass refugee crisis, have them flood NATO counties, and force NATO to pressure Zelensky to give Putin a huge pound of flesh.

Friedman does not say how plan B is working out for Putin, but the NYT says the refugees in Europe are being flooded with job offers, and they have a big labor shortage. So that aspect of the plan strikes me as a massive fail. I also don't see Zelensky handing Putin the keys to the store due to turning his attention to taking out civilians rather than acquiring real estate.

If Putin's Plan B proves a fail, Plan C is for Putin to attack supply areas for Ukraine in Poland, and plan D is to launch chemical weapons and nukes. I don't believe it. If Putin bombs Poland, the chemical weapons and nukes will be hitting NATO troops in Ukraine, and ...  stop, I just don't think Putin is that nuts.

But my opinion is worth what you paid for it.

Your opinion is certainly worth more than Thomas Friedman's - he thought this war wasn't even possible because both countries had McDonald's. It'd be much less of an escalation to use chemical weapons in Ukraine (which would be an extremely risky idea for various reasons) than to attack Poland with conventional weapons, so plans C and D (as Friedman views them) are the wrong way around.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thomas Friedman prognosticates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/opinion/putin-zelensky-ukraine.html

1. The plan A's of Biden (Biden = NATO/EU), Zenensky and Putin did not work out well for Putin. Biden's sanctions really did bite, Zelensky stalemated the ground war, and Putin's lightening strike victory with lots of Quislings was a fail

2. Putin's plan B was to attack civilians, cause a mass refugee crisis, have them flood NATO counties, and force NATO to pressure Zelensky to give Putin a huge pound of flesh.

Friedman does not say how plan B is working out for Putin, but the NYT says the refugees in Europe are being flooded with job offers, and they have a big labor shortage. So that aspect of the plan strikes me as a massive fail. I also don't see Zelensky handing Putin the keys to the store due to turning his attention to taking out civilians rather than acquiring real estate.

If Putin's Plan B proves a fail, Plan C is for Putin to attack supply areas for Ukraine in Poland, and plan D is to launch chemical weapons and nukes. I don't believe it. If Putin bombs Poland, the chemical weapons and nukes will be hitting NATO troops in Ukraine, and ...  stop, I just don't think Putin is that nuts.

But my opinion is worth what you paid for it.

Torie, your opinions are worth at least twice the price!

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Thomas Friedman prognosticates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/opinion/putin-zelensky-ukraine.html

1. The plan A's of Biden (Biden = NATO/EU), Zenensky and Putin did not work out well for Putin. Biden's sanctions really did bite, Zelensky stalemated the ground war, and Putin's lightening strike victory with lots of Quislings was a fail

2. Putin's plan B was to attack civilians, cause a mass refugee crisis, have them flood NATO counties, and force NATO to pressure Zelensky to give Putin a huge pound of flesh.

Friedman does not say how plan B is working out for Putin, but the NYT says the refugees in Europe are being flooded with job offers, and they have a big labor shortage. So that aspect of the plan strikes me as a massive fail. I also don't see Zelensky handing Putin the keys to the store due to turning his attention to taking out civilians rather than acquiring real estate.

If Putin's Plan B proves a fail, Plan C is for Putin to attack supply areas for Ukraine in Poland, and plan D is to launch chemical weapons and nukes. I don't believe it. If Putin bombs Poland, the chemical weapons and nukes will be hitting NATO troops in Ukraine, and ...  stop, I just don't think Putin is that nuts.

But my opinion is worth what you paid for it.

Which is incalculably more than Tom Friedman’s, whose opinion’s produce negative value when factoring in NYT subscriptions and book sales.

Every rolling sixth months will be the critical turning point in his mind.

[jaichind]

Moscow exchange starts gradual reopening with bonds trading

[Storr]

Dear Lord...

Note: There are videos of bleeding civilians in the aftermath of this shooting in Kherson on twittter, but I'm obviously not going to share them here.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1505869404726341644?s=20&t=Fw7APNOxJnDv...

[Person Man]

Thomas Friedman prognosticates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/opinion/putin-zelensky-ukraine.html

1. The plan A's of Biden (Biden = NATO/EU), Zenensky and Putin did not work out well for Putin. Biden's sanctions really did bite, Zelensky stalemated the ground war, and Putin's lightening strike victory with lots of Quislings was a fail

2. Putin's plan B was to attack civilians, cause a mass refugee crisis, have them flood NATO counties, and force NATO to pressure Zelensky to give Putin a huge pound of flesh.

Friedman does not say how plan B is working out for Putin, but the NYT says the refugees in Europe are being flooded with job offers, and they have a big labor shortage. So that aspect of the plan strikes me as a massive fail. I also don't see Zelensky handing Putin the keys to the store due to turning his attention to taking out civilians rather than acquiring real estate.

If Putin's Plan B proves a fail, Plan C is for Putin to attack supply areas for Ukraine in Poland, and plan D is to launch chemical weapons and nukes. I don't believe it. If Putin bombs Poland, the chemical weapons and nukes will be hitting NATO troops in Ukraine, and ...  stop, I just don't think Putin is that nuts.

But my opinion is worth what you paid for it.

Torie, your opinions are worth at least twice the price!

I guess now Putin has to choose between his own power and the continuation of Russia.

[Storr]

Dear Lord...

Note: There are videos of bleeding civilians in the aftermath of this shooting in Kherson on twittter, but I'm obviously not going to share them here.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1505869404726341644?s=20&t=Fw7APNOxJnDv...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505899476443144195?s=20&t=c1_I9FEjxvI...

[Middle-aged Europe]

DENAZIFICATION


https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1505875944145362948

[compucomp]

Speaking of support for an alternative to the Western view on the war, here's Israeli PM Bennett's comments on the issue today:

On Monday, Israel sent an aid delegation to Ukraine to establish a field hospital. While at the airport to see the delegation off, Bennett gave a few remarks, saying Israel was "managing this unfortunate crisis with sensitivity, generosity and responsibility, while maintaining a balance between the various factors – and they are complex."

Hm... sounds similar to Chinese ambassador to the USA Qin Gang yesterday on CBS News?

AMB. QIN: China makes its observation and conclusion based independently- based on the merits of the matter itself. On the one hand, we uphold–

MARGARET BRENNAN: The United Nations Secretary General said Russia invaded–

AMB. QIN: we uphold– We uphold. On the one hand, China upholds the U.N. purposes and -- and the principles, including that- the respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine. On the other hand, we do see that there- there is a complexity in the history of the Ukraine issue. And we are–

To be fair, Israeli FM Yair Lapid did say that Israel will not become "route to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other Western countries.” So Israel's stance is a bit more pro-Western than China's. I guess all those years of unconditional support and billions (trillions?) of aid bought you something? LOL?

[Horus]

Speaking of support for an alternative to the Western view on the war, here's Israeli PM Bennett's comments on the issue today:

On Monday, Israel sent an aid delegation to Ukraine to establish a field hospital. While at the airport to see the delegation off, Bennett gave a few remarks, saying Israel was "managing this unfortunate crisis with sensitivity, generosity and responsibility, while maintaining a balance between the various factors – and they are complex."

Hm... sounds similar to Chinese ambassador to the USA Qin Gang yesterday on CBS News?

AMB. QIN: China makes its observation and conclusion based independently- based on the merits of the matter itself. On the one hand, we uphold–

MARGARET BRENNAN: The United Nations Secretary General said Russia invaded–

AMB. QIN: we uphold– We uphold. On the one hand, China upholds the U.N. purposes and -- and the principles, including that- the respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine. On the other hand, we do see that there- there is a complexity in the history of the Ukraine issue. And we are–

To be fair, Israeli FM Yair Lapid did say that Israel will not become "route to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other Western countries.” So Israel's stance is a bit more pro-Western than China's. I guess all those years of unconditional support and billions (trillions?) of aid bought you something? LOL?

I've been calling them out for over a decade. You can thank the Ray Goldfields and Parrotguys of the world for trying to shut down debate at every turn by shouting "pogrom" and "blood libel" at the tamest criticism.

Israel is a terrible friend to America.

[Torie]

Speaking of support for an alternative to the Western view on the war, here's Israeli PM Bennett's comments on the issue today:

On Monday, Israel sent an aid delegation to Ukraine to establish a field hospital. While at the airport to see the delegation off, Bennett gave a few remarks, saying Israel was "managing this unfortunate crisis with sensitivity, generosity and responsibility, while maintaining a balance between the various factors – and they are complex."

Hm... sounds similar to Chinese ambassador to the USA Qin Gang yesterday on CBS News?

AMB. QIN: China makes its observation and conclusion based independently- based on the merits of the matter itself. On the one hand, we uphold–

MARGARET BRENNAN: The United Nations Secretary General said Russia invaded–

AMB. QIN: we uphold– We uphold. On the one hand, China upholds the U.N. purposes and -- and the principles, including that- the respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine. On the other hand, we do see that there- there is a complexity in the history of the Ukraine issue. And we are–

To be fair, Israeli FM Yair Lapid did say that Israel will not become "route to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other Western countries.” So Israel's stance is a bit more pro-Western than China's. I guess all those years of unconditional support and billions (trillions?) of aid bought you something? LOL?

I've been calling them out for over a decade. You can thank the Ray Goldfields and Parrotguys of the world for trying to shut down debate at every turn by shouting "pogrom" and "blood libel" at the tamest criticism.

Israel is a terrible friend to America.

You know what? I created a whole thread dissing Israel over an issue the other day. Ray showed up promptly to accuse me of agree with me! How is that possible?

One other thing. The price of the US giving aid or support to a country is not reducing it to a vassal state. That may be the price some other countries charge, but not the US.

And finally, I don't think this is even a tempest in a teapot. It isn't a tempest at all. Israel has reasons to maintain some ties to Russia, but if Biden called up Bennett, and said hey Bennett, my experts tell me that what you are doing is really interfering with what we need to do in this crisis, I have total confidence Bennett would just stop.

[Horus]

Speaking of support for an alternative to the Western view on the war, here's Israeli PM Bennett's comments on the issue today:

On Monday, Israel sent an aid delegation to Ukraine to establish a field hospital. While at the airport to see the delegation off, Bennett gave a few remarks, saying Israel was "managing this unfortunate crisis with sensitivity, generosity and responsibility, while maintaining a balance between the various factors – and they are complex."

Hm... sounds similar to Chinese ambassador to the USA Qin Gang yesterday on CBS News?

AMB. QIN: China makes its observation and conclusion based independently- based on the merits of the matter itself. On the one hand, we uphold–

MARGARET BRENNAN: The United Nations Secretary General said Russia invaded–

AMB. QIN: we uphold– We uphold. On the one hand, China upholds the U.N. purposes and -- and the principles, including that- the respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine. On the other hand, we do see that there- there is a complexity in the history of the Ukraine issue. And we are–

To be fair, Israeli FM Yair Lapid did say that Israel will not become "route to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other Western countries.” So Israel's stance is a bit more pro-Western than China's. I guess all those years of unconditional support and billions (trillions?) of aid bought you something? LOL?

I've been calling them out for over a decade. You can thank the Ray Goldfields and Parrotguys of the world for trying to shut down debate at every turn by shouting "pogrom" and "blood libel" at the tamest criticism.

Israel is a terrible friend to America.

You know what? I created a whole thread dissing Israel over an issue the other day. Ray showed up promptly to accuse me of agree with me! How is that possible?

One other thing. The price of the US giving aid or support to a country is not reducing it to a vassal state. That may be the price some other countries charge, but not the US.

And finally, I don't think this is even a tempest in a teapot. It isn't a tempest at all. Israel has reasons to maintain some ties to Russia, but if Biden called up Bennett, and said hey Bennett, my experts tell me that what you are doing is really interfering with what we need to do in this crisis, I have total confidence Bennett would just stop.

Which country is the not quite vassal state, the US or Israel? It's rather hard to tell sometimes.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOCK PUTLER UP!

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1505885423276544000

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505889409408905216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...